Feinberg Forecast
Award Predictions 2015-16

Scott's picks will be updated each week leading up to the Oscars. He has been forecasting awards since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records of all pundits at doing so.

This Week's Updates:

Drawing upon personal impressions (based on advance screenings of hundreds of films each year), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters), THR’s awards analyst currently projects…

Notify Me About Weekly Predictions

Best Picture - Front Runners

1
Spotlight
Open Road
Michael Sugar & Steve Golin, Nicole Rocklin, Blye Pagon Faust
2
The Martian
20th Century Fox
Simon Kinberg, Ridley Scott, Michael Schaefer, Mark Huffam
3
The Big Short
Paramount
Brad Pitt & Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner
4
Room
A24
Ed Guiney
5
Bridge of Spies
DreamWorks
Steven Spielberg, Marc Platt, Kristie Macosko Krieger
6
Carol
The Weinstein Co.
Elizabeth Karlsen & Stephen Woolley, Christine Vachon
7
Brooklyn
Fox Searchlight
Finola Dwyer & Amanda Posey
8
The Revenant
20th Century Fox
Arnon Milchan, Steve Golin, Mary Parent, Keith Redmon
9
Straight Outta Compton
Universal
Ice Cube, Dr. Dre, F. Gary Gray, Matt Alvarez, Scott Bernstein
10
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Disney
Kathleen Kennedy, J.J. Abrams & Bryan Burk

Best Picture - Major Threats

Best Picture - Possibilities

Best Picture - Long Shots

Best Directing - Front Runners

1
Ridley Scott
The Martian
2
Tom McCarthy
Spotlight
3
Alejandro G. Inarritu
The Revenant
4
Steven Spielberg
Bridge of Spies
5
Todd Haynes
Carol

Best Directing - Major Threats

Best Directing - Possibilities

Best Directing - Long Shots

Best Actor - Front Runners

1
Leonardo DiCaprio
The Revenant
2
Eddie Redmayne
The Danish Girl
3
Matt Damon
The Martian
4
Will Smith
Concussion
5
Michael Fassbender
Steve Jobs

Best Actor - Major Threats

Best Actor - Possibilities

Best Actor - Long Shots

Best Actress - Front Runners

1
Brie Larson
Room
2
Saoirse Ronan
Brooklyn
3
Cate Blanchett
Carol
4
Charlotte Rampling
45 Years
5
Jennifer Lawrence
Joy

Best Actress - Major Threats

Best Actress - Possibilities

Best Actress - Long Shots

Best Supporting Actor - Front Runners

1
Sylvester Stallone
Creed
2
Mark Rylance
Bridge of Spies
3
Christian Bale
The Big Short
4
Michael Shannon
99 Homes
5
Idris Elba
Beasts of No Nation

Best Supporting Actor - Major Threats

Best Supporting Actor - Possibilities

Best Supporting Actor - Long Shots

Best Supporting Actress - Front Runners

1
Alicia Vikander
The Danish Girl
2
Rooney Mara
Carol
3
Kate Winslet
Steve Jobs
4
Helen Mirren
Trumbo
5
Rachel McAdams
Spotlight

Best Supporting Actress - Major Threats

Best Supporting Actress - Possibilities

Best Supporting Actress - Long Shots

Best Adapted Screenplay - Front Runners

1
The Martian
Drew Goddard
2
Room
Emma Donoghue
3
The Big Short
Charles Randolph, Adam McKay
4
Steve Jobs
Aaron Sorkin
5
Brooklyn
Nick Hornby

Best Adapted Screenplay - Major Threats

Best Adapted Screenplay - Possibilities

Best Adapted Screenplay - Long Shots

Best Original Screenplay - Front Runners

1
Spotlight
Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer
2
Inside Out
Josh Cooley, Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve
3
The Hateful Eight
Quentin Tarantino
4
Bridge of Spies
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Matt Charman
5
Ex Machina
Alex Garland

Best Original Screenplay - Major Threats

Best Original Screenplay - Possibilities

Best Original Screenplay - Long Shots

Best Animated Feature - Front Runners

1
Inside Out
Disney-Pixar
2
Anomalisa
Paramount
3
The Good Dinosaur
Disney-Pixar
4
Shaun the Sheep Movie
Lionsgate
5
The Peanuts Movie
Fox Animation, Blue Sky Studios

Best Animated Feature - Major Threats

Best Animated Feature - Possibilities

Best Animated Feature - Long Shots

Best Documentary Feature - Front Runners

1
Amy
A24
2
The Look of Silence
Drafthouse Films
3
Cartel Land
The Orchard
4
Best of Enemies
Magnolia
5
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
HBO

Best Documentary Feature - Major Threats

Best Documentary Feature - Possibilities

Best Foreign Language Film - Front Runners

1
Son of Saul
Hungary
Laszlo Nemes
2
Mustang
France
Deniz Gamze Erguven
3
The Brand New Testament
Belgium
Jaco Van Dormael
4
Labyrinth of Lies
Germany
5
Viva
Ireland

Best Foreign Language Film - Major Threats

Best Cinematography - Front Runners

1
The Revenant
Emmanuel Lubezki
2
Mad Max: Fury Road
John Seale
3
The Hateful Eight
Robert Richardson
4
Sicario
Roger Deakins
5
Carol
Edward Lachman

Best Cinematography - Major Threats

Best Cinematography - Possibilities

Best Cinematography - Long Shots

Best Costume Design - Front Runners

1
Carol
Sandy Powell
2
The Danish Girl
Paco Delgado
3
The Hateful Eight
Courtney Hoffman
4
Cinderella
Sandy Powell
5
Brooklyn
Odile Dicks-Mireaux

Best Costume Design - Major Threats

Best Costume Design - Possibilities

Best Costume Design - Long Shots

Best Film Editing - Front Runners

1
Mad Max: Fury Road
Margaret Sixel
2
Spotlight
Tom McArdle
3
Bridge of Spies
Michael Kahn
4
The Martian
Pietro Scalia
5
The Big Short
Hank Corwin

Best Film Editing - Major Threats

Best Film Editing - Possibilities

Best Film Editing - Long Shots

Best Makeup & Hairstyling - Front Runners

1
Mad Max: Fury Road
Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega and Damian Martin
2
Mr. Holmes
3
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared
Love Larson and Eva von Bahr

Best Makeup & Hairstyling - Major Threats

Best Original Score - Front Runners

1
The Hateful Eight
Ennio Morricone
2
Carol
Carter Burwell
3
Spotlight
Howard Shore
4
The Danish Girl
Alexandre Desplat
5
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
John Williams

Best Original Score - Major Threats

Best Original Score - Possibilities

Best Original Score - Long Shots

Best Original Song - Front Runners

1
"See You Again"
Furious 7
DJ Frank E, Charlie Puth, Wiz Khalifa, Andrew Cedar
2
"Til It Happens to You"
The Hunting Ground
Lady Gaga, Diane Warren
3
"Simple Song #3"
Youth
Sumi Jo
4
"Earned It"
Fifty Shades of Grey
Abel Tesfaye, Stephan Moccio, Jason "DaHeala" Quenneville, Ahmad Balshe
5
"Flashlight"
Pitch Perfect 2
Sia Furler, Christian Guzman, Jason Moore, Sam Smith

Best Original Song - Major Threats

Best Original Song - Possibilities

Best Original Song - Long Shots

Best Production Design - Front Runners

1
Bridge of Spies
Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo, Bernhard Henrich
2
Mad Max: Fury Road
Colin Gibson, Katie Sharrock, Lisa Thompson
3
The Danish Girl
Eve Stewart, Michael Standish
4
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Rick Carter, Darren Gilford, Lee Sandales
5
Room
Ethan Tobman, Mary Kirkland

Best Production Design - Major Threats

Best Production Design - Possibilities

Best Production Design - Long Shots

Best Sound Editing - Front Runners

1
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
David Accord, Matthew Wood
2
The Martian
Oliver Tarney
3
Mad Max: Fury Road
Scott Hecker, Mark Mangini, David White
4
The Revenant
Martin Hernandez, Randy Thom, Lon Bender
5
The Hateful Eight
Wylie Stateman

Best Sound Editing - Major Threats

Best Sound Editing - Possibilities

Best Sound Editing - Long Shots

Best Sound Mixing - Front Runners

1
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Benjamin A. Burtt, Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom
2
The Martian
Mac Ruth, Paul Massey, Mark Taylor
3
Mad Max: Fury Road
Ben Osmo, Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff
4
The Revenant
Chris Duesterdiek, Frank A. Montaño, Jon Taylor, Randy Thom
5
The Hateful Eight
Mark Ulano, Christian P. Minkler, Michael Minkler

Best Sound Mixing - Major Threats

Best Sound Mixing - Possibilities

Best Sound Mixing - Long Shots