'Oprah' exit leaves huge void

By Elizabeth Guider

The most telling indication that Oprah Winfrey was about to makethe big decision was the cover of last month's "O" magazine. Toactually share space with Ellen DeGeneres (who, after all, fronts arival afternoon talk show) and later have her on "Oprah" as themain guest was a subtle if unconscious anointing of one queen oftalk by another.

Thursday's news that Winfrey is exiting the first-run fray she willhave dominated for 25 years is nothing less than a paradigm shift,one that will roil the already fragile local TV station businessfor the next two years. She was a king maker, after all, andwithout her to set the standard, there is going to be a scramble --indeed a power grab --throughout the realm.

The ABC O&Os and many affiliate stations, which are "Oprah's'historic home, will be affected right off the bat. Sure, "Oprah" ishugely expensive for them, but what she does is provide a reliablysubstantial lead-in for their local newscasts, which is where theymake most of their money. With her gone, all bets are off.

As one syndie veteran summed it up for me, "If you now have'Oprah,' you're depressed; if you don't, you're ecstatic."

That's where "Ellen" comes in. The younger-skewing gabber, which isdistributed by Warner Bros., got its start on the NBC O&Os,where the original license fees, as usual in start-up deals, werequite low.

Those NBC station deals will be coming up for renewal soon, andwith ABC looking for an "Oprah" replacement, "Ellen's" timing looksimpeccable -- and advantageous for Warners, as well.

It could be argued too that "Ellen" is more attuned to the currentcultural zeitgeist than "Oprah" is, or more simply that her morelight-hearted approach and tone sits better with audiences indepressing times like these.

Not that anything in syndication is straightforward.

A couple of other pretenders to the throne will vie for attentiontoo. CBS' "Dr. Phil," a show that Winfrey helped nurture intofirst-run fame, could take advantage of the looming vacuum. Untilnow, that talk show could not contractually go head-to-head with"Oprah" in the afternoon, but once the latter is gone, CBS will beworking to upgrade the relationship therapist to those coveted 4p.m. slots.

Then there's Sony, which has fielded several interesting candidatesin the talk-show fray, including "Dr. Oz," and, presumablybeginning in September, the lifestyle-themed "Nate Berkus." Theytoo might be poised to take advantage of the free-for-all come fall2011.

"It's going to be the clash of the titans," is how another syndieonlooker described what the next 18 months will look like behindthe scenes and on the road as the big guns in first-run jostle forposition.

No doubt the syndie salesman par excellence Roger King, whoessentially did whatever it took to put "Oprah" on the map and thenrenew the bejesus out of it for 20 years, is looking down on allthis.

King would immediately have pulled a rabbit out of his hat and hadan instant replacement. We'll see what others can do.