Oscars Forecast: 4 Weird Things You Should See, 24 Things You Will See
The Oscar polls closed Tuesday at 5 p.m., so here's what's going to happen at the Oscars on Feb. 22 (plus four imaginary scenes that would make the show way more entertaining).
First, four things you won't see at the Oscars but I wish you could:
Winona Ryder re-enacting her confrontation with Natalie Portman in Black Swan, but suddenly, catching sight of Gwyneth Paltrow backstage rehearsing her “Coming Home” number from Country Strong, losing it and attacking Paltrow for her 2009 GOOP blog blind item about her, breaking Paltrow’s guitar over her head and shrieking Gwyneth's own lyrics at her: “Get lost in the great wide open, Gwyneth! And never find your way back!”
Bansky swinging on a rope from the ceiling like a less accident-prone Spider-Man dressed in a gorilla mask, seizing the best doc trophy from Inside Job director Charles Ferguson and escaping through a breakaway stunt wall he’s secretly installed in the Kodak Theater, then nimbly grabbing a flying trapeze dangling from a hovering helicopter that whisks him away to an undisclosed location.
Christopher Nolan discovering it's all been a series of convoluted dreams, and he's really back in 1998 trying to scrape up $6,000 for his first film, Following, which he then explains to Janet Maslin thus: "I decided to structure my story in such a way as to emphasize the audience's incomplete understanding of each new scene as it is first presented." (Actually, that's what he really did say. And at Saturday's Eddie Awards, where he won Filmmaker of the Year, he really said what Inception editor Lee Smith did was to "have everybody understand it -- or understand it enough anyway.")
Toy Story 3 winning Best Picture, Javier Bardem winning Best Actor, Michelle Williams winning Best Actress, John Hawkes winning Best Supporting Actor, Jacki Weaver winning Best Supporting Actress, Mike Leigh winning Best Original Screenplay — followed by the rain of toads from Magnolia, a plague of locusts, the moon turning to blood, and the coming of the Millennium.
Instead, expect this to happen:
BEST PICTURE: The King's Speech
BEST DIRECTOR: David Fincher, The Social Network
BEST ACTOR: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
BEST ACTRESS: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christian Bale, The Fighter
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Toy Story 3
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: David Seidler, The King's Speech
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: True Grit
BEST ART DIRECTION: Alice in Wonderland
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Alice in Wonderland
BEST DOCUMENTARY: Inside Job
BEST FILM EDITING: The Social Network
BEST FOREIGN FILM: Incendies
BEST ORIGINAL MUSIC SCORE: The King's Speech
BEST SONG: "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3
BEST SOUND EDITING: Inception
BEST SOUND MIXING: Inception
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Inception
BEST MAKEUP: The Wolfman
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Warriors of Qiugang
BEST ANIMATED SHORT: Day and Night
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: Na Wewe (even thought it's the schematic, sentimental Crash of shorts, and the best one is Michael Creagh's The Crush, which I vote least likely to win)
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Scott, whose THR coverage appears both in print and online, is one of the film industry's most experienced and trusted awards analysts, and possesses one of the strongest track records at forecasting the Oscars. His best showings came in 2006 and 2013, when he called 21 of 24 winners; he was also the only pundit to project long-shot best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011). An alumnus of Brandeis University, he previously ran "The Feinberg Files" blog for the Los Angeles Times. He is now a voting member of both the Broadcast Film Critics Association and the Broadcast Television Journalists Association, and is writing a book about film history for young people for which he has interviewed more than 350 high-profile Hollywood figures.
Gregg contributes awards news, features online, and "The Race" column in print.
Tim contributes awards news and features, both in print and online.