Oscar Predictions: Jeremy Renner Rises, Ed Harris Falls
In this week's new Gold Derby pundit poll, I put skyrocketing Jeremy Renner on the Oscar supporting list, and decided there was no way back to awardsville for Ed Harris (this year).
Why did awards people ignore The Town for so long? A bank robbery thriller that's also rife with vivid characters? But Renner, whose first acting job was kicking cops in the cojones to train them to bust bad guys, broke through as the baddest member of reluctant thug Ben Affleck's team and got a Globe nom. Welcome back from the Gigli wilderness, Ben! And Renner, you're still fresh from last year's explosive Hurt Locker nom -- try not to wear a hole in the red carpet, it's expensive.
My supporting actor Oscar predictions:
1. Christian Bale, who told Charlie Rose he could "whip [Mark Walhberg]'s ass," and looks like he'll do the same to the Oscar competition.
2. Geoffrey Rush, who tells me he doesn't mind his second billing in The King's Speech even though it almost amounts to a second leading role: "In King Lear you've got Lear and Gloucester. But the play is called King Lear."
3. Mark Ruffalo, who tells me he based his rootless sperm-disseminating character in The Kids Are All Right on a whole lot of Hollywood guys he knows just like him.
4. John Hawkes, whose rising stock probably also boosts star Jennifer Lawrence's odds and the picture's.
5. Jeremy Renner
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Scott Feinberg, the lead awards analyst for The Hollywood Reporter, is one of the entertainment industry's most experienced and trusted experts about the Oscars, Emmys and Tonys. He started on the awards beat in 2001, writing for independent websites including his own ScottFeinberg.com before joining the Los Angeles Times and then THR, for which he writes “The Race” blog, which won the LA Press Club’s National Entertainment Journalism Award for best entertainment blog of 2012-2013. A voting member of both the Broadcast Film Critics' Association and Broadcast Television Journalists Association, he is also writing a book about film history for young people for which he has interviewed more than 500 high-profile Hollywood figures whose careers span the silent era through the present.
Follow Scott on Twitter at twitter.com/scottfeinberg.
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