Oscar Predictions: Jeremy Renner Rises, Ed Harris Falls
In this week's new Gold Derby pundit poll, I put skyrocketing Jeremy Renner on the Oscar supporting list, and decided there was no way back to awardsville for Ed Harris (this year).
Why did awards people ignore The Town for so long? A bank robbery thriller that's also rife with vivid characters? But Renner, whose first acting job was kicking cops in the cojones to train them to bust bad guys, broke through as the baddest member of reluctant thug Ben Affleck's team and got a Globe nom. Welcome back from the Gigli wilderness, Ben! And Renner, you're still fresh from last year's explosive Hurt Locker nom -- try not to wear a hole in the red carpet, it's expensive.
My supporting actor Oscar predictions:
1. Christian Bale, who told Charlie Rose he could "whip [Mark Walhberg]'s ass," and looks like he'll do the same to the Oscar competition.
2. Geoffrey Rush, who tells me he doesn't mind his second billing in The King's Speech even though it almost amounts to a second leading role: "In King Lear you've got Lear and Gloucester. But the play is called King Lear."
3. Mark Ruffalo, who tells me he based his rootless sperm-disseminating character in The Kids Are All Right on a whole lot of Hollywood guys he knows just like him.
4. John Hawkes, whose rising stock probably also boosts star Jennifer Lawrence's odds and the picture's.
5. Jeremy Renner
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Scott, whose THR coverage appears both in print and online, is one of the film industry's most experienced and trusted awards analysts, and possesses one of the strongest track records at forecasting the Oscars. His best showings came in 2006 (when he called 21 of 24 winners) and 2004 (when he called 20 of 24 winners); he was also the only pundit to project long-shot best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011). An alumnus of Brandeis University, he previously ran "The Feinberg Files" blog for the Los Angeles Times. He is now a voting member of both the Broadcast Film Critics Association and the Broadcast Television Journalists Association, and is writing a book about film history for young people for which he has interviewed more than 350 high-profile Hollywood figures.
Gregg contributes awards news, features online, and "The Race" column in print.
Tim contributes awards news and features, both in print and online.