New Oscar Predictions: 'King's Speech,' David Fincher, 'Inception,' 'Inside Job'
THR's Oscar Nostradamus respectably guesses 31 out of 35 Oscar noms, and reveals who's going to win now. And why The King's Speech is ahead again (by a nose).
In the Gold Derby pundit's poll, I was outguessed by Steve Pond and Susan Wloszczyna, and outguessed 15 other pundits who may be smarter, but I'm luckier. Hoping that my luck improves, I present my new predictions, here, on Gold Derby, and Movie City News' post-Oscar nom Gurus o'Gold poll, whose consensus mostly matches my picks. Best picture nominees are ranked in order of the likelihood that they'll win. For the other prizes, I just include my best guess at the winner.
1. The King's Speech
2. The Social Network
3. True Grit
4. The Fighter
5. Black Swan
6. The Kids Are All Right
7. Toy Story 3
9. 127 Hours
10. Winter's Bone
BEST DIRECTOR: David Fincher, The Social Network
BEST ACTOR: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
BEST ACTRESS: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christian Bale, The Fighter
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Toy Story 3
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: David Seidler, The King's Speech
BEST ART DIRECTION: Alice in Wonderland
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Alice in Wonderland
BEST DOCUMENTARY: Inside Job
BEST FILM EDITING: The Social Network
BEST FOREIGN FILM: Biutiful (Mexico)
BEST ORIGINAL MUSIC SCORE: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network
BEST SONG: "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3
BEST SOUND EDITING: Inception
BEST SOUND MIXING: Inception
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Inception
BEST MAKEUP: The Wolfman, whose director Joe Johnston described the film as "a leaky, rudderless ship in a perfect storm suffering from bad decisions, infighting, reluctance of the powers-that-be to take responsibility, and too many underqualified cooks in the kitchen." But as Warren Zevon observed, prophesying the tonsorial glory of star Benicio del Toro, "His hair ... was perfect."
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Scott Feinberg, the lead awards analyst for The Hollywood Reporter, is one of the entertainment industry's most experienced and trusted experts about the Oscars, Emmys and Tonys. He started on the awards beat in 2001, writing for independent websites including his own ScottFeinberg.com before joining the Los Angeles Times and then THR, for which he writes “The Race” blog, which won the LA Press Club’s National Entertainment Journalism Award for best entertainment blog of 2012-2013. A voting member of both the Broadcast Film Critics' Association and Broadcast Television Journalists Association, he is also writing a book about film history for young people for which he has interviewed more than 500 high-profile Hollywood figures whose careers span the silent era through the present.
Follow Scott on Twitter at twitter.com/scottfeinberg.