New Oscar Predictions: 'King's Speech,' David Fincher, 'Inception,' 'Inside Job'
THR's Oscar Nostradamus respectably guesses 31 out of 35 Oscar noms, and reveals who's going to win now. And why The King's Speech is ahead again (by a nose).
In the Gold Derby pundit's poll, I was outguessed by Steve Pond and Susan Wloszczyna, and outguessed 15 other pundits who may be smarter, but I'm luckier. Hoping that my luck improves, I present my new predictions, here, on Gold Derby, and Movie City News' post-Oscar nom Gurus o'Gold poll, whose consensus mostly matches my picks. Best picture nominees are ranked in order of the likelihood that they'll win. For the other prizes, I just include my best guess at the winner.
1. The King's Speech
2. The Social Network
3. True Grit
4. The Fighter
5. Black Swan
6. The Kids Are All Right
7. Toy Story 3
9. 127 Hours
10. Winter's Bone
BEST DIRECTOR: David Fincher, The Social Network
BEST ACTOR: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
BEST ACTRESS: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christian Bale, The Fighter
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Toy Story 3
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: David Seidler, The King's Speech
BEST ART DIRECTION: Alice in Wonderland
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Alice in Wonderland
BEST DOCUMENTARY: Inside Job
BEST FILM EDITING: The Social Network
BEST FOREIGN FILM: Biutiful (Mexico)
BEST ORIGINAL MUSIC SCORE: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network
BEST SONG: "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3
BEST SOUND EDITING: Inception
BEST SOUND MIXING: Inception
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Inception
BEST MAKEUP: The Wolfman, whose director Joe Johnston described the film as "a leaky, rudderless ship in a perfect storm suffering from bad decisions, infighting, reluctance of the powers-that-be to take responsibility, and too many underqualified cooks in the kitchen." But as Warren Zevon observed, prophesying the tonsorial glory of star Benicio del Toro, "His hair ... was perfect."
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Scott, whose THR coverage appears both in print and online, is one of the film industry's most experienced and trusted awards analysts, and possesses one of the strongest track records at forecasting the Oscars. His best showings came in 2006 (when he called 21 of 24 winners) and 2004 (when he called 20 of 24 winners); he was also the only pundit to project long-shot best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011). An alumnus of Brandeis University, he previously ran "The Feinberg Files" blog for the Los Angeles Times. He is now a voting member of both the Broadcast Film Critics Association and the Broadcast Television Journalists Association, and is writing a book about film history for young people for which he has interviewed more than 350 high-profile Hollywood figures.
Gregg contributes awards news, features online, and "The Race" column in print.
Tim contributes awards news and features, both in print and online.