How SAG and Golden Globe Nominations Affect Oscar Odds
Awards watcher Scott Feinberg notes that since 2000, only 1.1 performers a year have managed to get Oscar noms despite missing out on SAG and Golden Globe nominations.
Here are this year's big names which were snubbed by SAG and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (though 1.1 may still get Oscar noms if past is prologue):
#1: Leonardo DiCaprio (Inception, Shutter Island).
#2: Ben Affleck (The Town)
#3: Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
#4: Stephen Dorff (Somewhere)
#5: Michael Douglas (Solitary Man)
#6: Sally Hawkins (Made in Dagenham)
#7: Diane Lane (Secretariat)
#8: Lesley Manville (Another Year)
#9: Gwyneth Paltrow (Country Strong)
#10: Noomi Rapace (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo)
#11: Tilda Swinton (I Am Love)
#12: Naomi Watts (Fair Game)
#13: Jim Broadbent (Another Year)
#14: Vincent Cassel (Black Swan)
#15: Matt Damon (True Grit)
#16: Armie Hammer (The Social Network)
#17: Ed Harris (The Way Back)
#18: Bill Murray (Get Low)
#19: Sam Rockwell (Conviction)
#20: Justin Timberlake (The Social Network)
#21: Kirsten Dunst (All Good Things)
#22: Elle Fanning (Somewhere)
#23: Rebecca Hall (The Town)
#24: Barbara Hershey (Black Swan)
#25: Juliette Lewis (Conviction)
#26: Rooney Mara (The Social Network)
#27: Miranda Richardson (Made in Dagenham)
#28: Sissy Spacek (Get Low)
#29: Dianne Wiest (Rabbit Hole)
#30: Olivia Williams (The Ghost Writer )
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Scott, whose THR coverage appears both in print and online, is one of the film industry's most experienced and trusted awards analysts, and possesses one of the strongest track records at forecasting the Oscars. His best showings came in 2006 and 2013, when he called 21 of 24 winners; he was also the only pundit to project long-shot best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011). An alumnus of Brandeis University, he previously ran "The Feinberg Files" blog for the Los Angeles Times. He is now a voting member of both the Broadcast Film Critics Association and the Broadcast Television Journalists Association, and is writing a book about film history for young people for which he has interviewed more than 350 high-profile Hollywood figures.
Gregg contributes awards news, features online, and "The Race" column in print.
Tim contributes awards news and features, both in print and online.