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DEC
16
4 YEARS

BULLSEYE, Dec. 17: 'Tron,' 'Yogi,' 'Gulliver,' 'Grit,' More

See where audience interest is leading into the weekend.

The Dec. 17 weekend could be a big one, as most kids are out of school and even a lot of adults will have extra time to head to the theaters as the holidays get started. This week's Flixster Bullseye gives a great representation of the options and where audiences are likely to be heading.

Disney's Tron: Legacy, as it has all along, continues to skew all the way to the left fringe of the male demo, albeit with hardcore interest from those fans. The women couldn't care less, though, apparently. That's a problem in the long run for a very expensive movie that is likely to open in the $43-45 million range. And that includes elevated 3D prices. Of course, the film could surprise, but Disney may be in for a coal-filled Christmas.

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The other wide openers are Columbia's How Do You Know, Paramount/Relativity's The Fighter and Warner Bros.' Yogi Bear. All those women that don't go to Tron are likely to end up at James L. Brooks' movie and taking the kids to Jellystone Park -- or maybe checking out Angelina and Johnny in The Tourist in its second weekend. How Do You Know is another super-expensive movie that doesn't appear to be drawing substantive attention. And interest in Yogi is tepid, though it's much harder to track movies that cater to children. Meanwhile, Mark Wahlberg and Christian Bale are a bit of a wild card as The Fighter expands. Strongs reviews and word-of-mouth, along with a big promotional push and awards recognition, could drive a lot of the curious into the ring.

Fox Searchlight's Black Swan continues to have sizable interest, though in the Flixster universe this could indicate users repeatedly checking out, uh, pictures of its stars, Natalie Portman and Mila Kunis. And Universal's Little Fockers is inching in toward the center of the bullseye ahead of its Wednesday opening opposite the Coen brothers' True Grit, also looking strong on the enthusiasm of older males.

Here's Pamela McClintock's box-office preview for the weekend for added analysis.