Can Shrek survive the weather?

That's the operative question heading into what promises to be an overheated four-day Memorial Day holiday weekend.

Obviously, there's a big boxoffice storm brewing in 20th Century Fox's chilly disaster epic "The Day After Tomorrow," opening in 3,425 theaters. Roland Emmerich's PG-13 vision of a storm-tossed future in which global warming sends the United States into a big chill boasts the gargantuan effects sequences that also drove audiences to his "Godzilla," which grossed $136.3 million in 1998, and his "Independence Day," which amassed $306.2 million in 1996.

Forecasts suggest that "Tomorrow," which stars Dennis Quaid and Jake Gyllenhaal, will probably adhere more closely to "Godzilla's" trajectory than that of "Independence Day." Staking out modest expectations, Fox is rooting for an opening weekend number in the $50 million range, though given the fact that moviegoers have four days at their disposal, that number could climb above the $60 million mark -- and even into the 70s in the opinion of some competitors.

But that still leaves plenty of room for DreamWorks' "Shrek 2" -- which has the advantage of being a well-reviewed sequel to an enormously popular hit -- to continue its reign after taking in $108 million during the three-day weekend and $129 million in its first five days last week. Even though summer vacations haven't really begun, "Shrek 2" has been posting summer numbers during the week: It picked up $11.5 million more Monday, $8 million Tuesday and nearly $8 million Wednesday.

Shrek and his gang of fairy-tale friends will easily cross the $200 million mark during the weekend as the film's theater count rises to 4,223 locations. A second-weekend score of $75 million-$85 million appears to be in the cards. At the high end, "Shrek 2" could find itself challenging the $85.7 million four-day take that earned Universal Pictures' "Bruce Almighty" the top slot last Memorial Day weekend.

The holiday weekend's other two wide releases have more modest goals in their sights. Courting the female audience, Buena Vista is opening "Raising Helen," starring Kate Hudson, in 2,717 locations. The PG-13 comedy-drama directed by Garry Marshall ("The Princess Diaries") features Hudson as a New York party girl who suddenly finds herself raising two nieces and a nephew.

Hudson scored big with last year's "How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days," in which she shared billing with Matthew McConaughey and notched a $23.8 million opening. But her two follow-up films, "Alex and Emma" and "Le Divorce," barely registered at the boxoffice. "Helen" looks heartier than those two movies and will probably open somewhere in the mid-teen-millions over the four days.

MGM's "Soul Plane," a black riff on "Airplane!" jokiness, is targeting an even more specific niche. Opening in 1,566 theaters, the R-rated comedy directed by Jessy Terrero has a cast headed by Snoop Dogg, Method Man and Tom Arnold that is designed to lure in urban audiences and urban wannabes. "Breakin' All the Rules," the urban-skewing romantic comedy starring Jamie Foxx, opened to just $5 million just two weekends ago. "Soul Plane" should have somewhat broader appeal but may still hover below the $10 million mark over the holiday.

Although escapist movies rule the top of the charts, specialty outfits aren't shying away from taking advantage of the long weekend, either.

Sony Pictures Classics will debut "Baadassss!" in New York and Los Angeles. The R-rated drama is directed by Mario Van Peebles, who also stars as his father, Melvin Van Peebles, in a true-to-life account of the senior Van Peebles' experiences making the seminal blaxploitation film "Sweet Sweetback's Baadassss Song." Simultaneously, SPC also is raising the curtain on "The Mother," an R-rated British film directed by Roger Michell that explores a romance between an older woman and a younger man.

And in selected cities, MGM/UA is venturing out with "Saved!" Brian Dannelly's comedy stars Jena Malone as a pregnant student who attends a Baptist high school.