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Iger wants new windows in Disney house

All eyes on Iger

Diane Mermigas
If recent comments by incoming Walt Disney Co. chief executive Robert Iger are an indication of his willingness to set a bold new agenda for the company, as well as signals of a media industry awash in change, then things are about to get interesting at the house that Walt Disney built.

Declaring the need for new and modified content exhibition windows for feature films and primetime television shows was Iger's opening salvo during Disney's recent quarterly earnings call, which drew the ire of national theater owners, as Iger predicted.

"I think windows in general need to change. They need to compress," he told analysts. "I don't think that it's out of question that a DVD can be released in effect in the same window as a theatrical release, although I'm sure we will get a fair amount of pushback from the industry," he said. "I think that all the old rules should be called into question, because the rules, in terms of consumption, have changed so dramatically."

Such are the bold moves and blunt assessments already defining Iger's long-awaited move into the CEO's office at Disney. Iger officially will succeed the embattled Michael Eisner as Disney boss Saturday. The handover comes at a time when all media players are scrambling to develop new digital strategies and leverage in a fast-changing media and entertainment landscape.

Anyone who says that Iger's priorities are unclear simply has not been paying attention.

Clearly, Iger intends to take Disney's key brands to a new level in developing and growing all interactive digital broadband opportunities, where investment will be intensified. The high-energy, laser-focused Iger aims to make Disney into a digital steamroller, insiders said.

At a Deutsche Banc Securities media conference in June, Iger drew a line in the sand vowing to "not allow management of traditional businesses to get in the way of very, very important migration to new media platforms," Iger said. "The competition will get the best of us if we don't move in that direction."

For instance, Disney is considering a proposal from Comcast Corp. to multicast some of its primetime series on a 24-hour delay in an unprecedented video-on-demand arrangement. With payments as much as $500,000 per episode, sources said, the arrangement would represent a new syndication window for ABC, which would be pure profit. It could be one of many new business models Iger is eager to develop.

Iger provided more marching orders last week at Goldman Sachs' annual Communicopia conference where, among other things, he said Disney would not engage in a Viacom-like spinoff of core businesses.

"We feel that we not only have the right set of assets, but that they are managed in a very integrated fashion to create leverage for the company in a variety of directions, particularly where it comes to branded content and Disney specifically," he said, referring to the company's theme parks, cable channels, broadcast and cable networks, broadband, publishing and consumer products businesses.

"So splitting up does not make sense in that regard because we get good leverage out of these assets today," he said.

He also made the stunning statement that, despite its upside primetime ratings, the rebounding ABC broadcast network "should be looked at merely as a platform that supports the creation of content, especially content that the family owns, that then can be leveraged well beyond its initial run on ABC," Iger said. "We should be looking to use the reach we have to drive new businesses."

In fact, neither ABC nor the $30 billion ESPN franchise should be looked at as stand-alone businesses, he said. ESPN is a "multimedia brand that can leverage its competitive advantage well beyond the borders of its traditional business," he said.

Those are strong words coming from someone who cut his professional teeth on the conventional broadcast business, which he knows must change with the times to survive. During his 30 years with ABC and Disney, Iger has been known mostly by his efficient, gentlemanly, understated style of management, climbing the ranks at ABC through the network's acquisition by Capital Cities in the 1980s and its merger with Disney in 1995.

It is important for Iger to more clearly define the caliber of leadership he will bring to Disney in his first starring role, having learned from such legendary media moguls as the late Roone Arledge and Capital Cities chiefs Dan Burke and Thomas Murphy. Instead of Iger succeeding Murphy as Cap Cities CEO as planned, the buyout put Iger on a path to suffer through intense media scrutiny of his every move under his micromanaging but brilliant boss, Eisner. More than anything else, Iger has demonstrated he can be a patient survivor.

As second-in-command at Disney since 2000, Iger has mostly played peacemaker and diplomat, dodging the controversies that marred Eisner's final 18 months, and proving an adroit enough manager to win the top job.

From here on, Iger, 54, succeeds or fails on his own merits, and his "to do" list could not be more challenging.

Practically speaking, one of his first jobs will be appointing a new No. 2 to succeed himself as chief operating officer. Longtime chief financial officer Thomas Staggs would be a strong, obvious choice.

Iger will continue his recent efforts to streamline and decentralize the company, placing more decision-making and accountability in the hands of division and other operating managers, and adopting a structure more like Cap Cities/ABC than Eisner's patriarchal rule of the past 21 years.

Among other things, he swiftly disbanded Disney's strategic planning unit, which was much disliked inside the company for taking the lead on acquisitions and other decisions without much consultation with Disney's various division heads. He has promised more such changes to come. Analysts said Iger must stabilize key management personnel while eventually learning to work with a yet-to-be-named new Disney chairman after current chairman, former U.S. Sen. George Mitchell, steps down at year's end.

Iger also is aggressively pursuing strategic alliances, exemplified by last week's announced "omnibus plan" to feature its leading broadcast and cable brands on Verizon's piracy-protected FiOS fiber optic TV service. In what Iger said is an industry template for future such digital deals, Disney will be "compensated" for its content, though he declined to explain how. The anti-piracy protection is just a first step in what will become Disney's more intense search for solutions to potentially profound copyright protection issues.

Even an all-important renewed distribution pact with Pixar Animation Studios, which would want more of the profits and control of co-productions next time around, could break new ground by providing unconventional windowing opportunities. Iger, who can't afford a break with Pixar so early in his tenure, must maintain Pixar's hefty contribution to Disney's film operating income while revitalizing his studio's once unmatched animation operations.

Successfully reinventing Disney's creative culture could be worth millions in new revenue and profits stripped across all new media platforms.

But Iger's biggest challenge is the same one that confronts all of his industry peers: How does a content giant like Disney embrace and capitalize on all of the global digital broadband opportunities to which it can apply its branded content and services. If he succeeds, digital-related revenue could contribute as much as 12% of Disney's overall earnings by 2010, according to Merrill Lynch.

ESPN has given Disney one of the industry's best running starts into the digital business with its advanced ESPN Motion and other broadband applications.

Digital broadband technology's creation of new distribution pathways and ways for consumers to access and use media offer tremendous economic opportunity for Disney, which Iger said is first and foremost "a branded creative content company."

"Those changing dynamics create a voracious appetite for content, and as content proliferates, the value of brands increases dramatically as well," he said, while vowing to maintain Disney's fiscal discipline and sensitivity to changing consumer behavior.

"In migrating some of our traditional business to new-media platforms like broadband, we're creating new revenue streams and we're getting paid to do that, not just in advertising but in subscription fees," Iger said. "The mandate is to go very aggressively in that direction."

However, Iger said Disney is not about to repeat its failed attempt to enter the Internet portal business, though it could dabble in search.

"I don't see us playing catch up to the Googles of this world or going into the aggregated portal play, per se," he said. "But, that doesn't mean that there isn't opportunity for the company to grow in that space and it will continue to."

Iger, who has proven himself a diplomat and skilled negotiator behind the scenes, is smart enough to know the devil is in the details, and actions will speak louder than words. Ultimately, it might all come down to how aggressively he is willing to push the envelope on all the key fronts.

Accurate or not, there are some prevailing industry impressions with which the affable, skilled Iger must contend.

One is the extent to which Eisner held a tight rein on a broad array of business matters -- keeping even Iger out of the action. Consider that Iger paid what was only his first visit to Pixar's studios in June, when he made a personal call on Pixar founding chairman Steve Jobs to restart Jobs' failed negotiations with Eisner.

Iger has been credited as much with the failure as the success of ABC's primetime schedule, which is swinging back to an estimated $700 million-plus in operating profits from an unprecedented loss of more than $650 million several years ago. It is troubling to some that Iger was among the Disney and ABC executives ambivalent about the hit potential of "Lost" and "Desperate Housewives," to the point of sacking former ABC Entertainment chiefs Lloyd Braun and Susan Lyne. He also was part of the executive pack that decided to run "Who Wants to be a Millionaire" into the ground from overexposure, sending ABC primetime ratings into a tailspin.

But there are more victories to Iger's credit, perhaps the most important of which is that he is liked and trusted by many of Disney's key constituents.

He has broadly shepherded Disney's global core business expansion, especially in Asia, which he promises to intensify, highlighted by the recent opening of Hong Kong Disneyland. Complex language, culture and political obstacles have been wisely offset by a new financial formula that hedges Disney's bets on theme parks outside the U.S. Disney will annually earn up to 10% royalty revenue and performance-based management fees (of at least $35 million) for its $315 million investment for a 43% equity stake (and $15.4 million in annual rent) in the $3.5 billion park.

Iger said at the opening festivities this month that Hong Kong Disneyland marks Disney's "first big step" for expanding into China. Talks are ongoing with the Chinese government about opening a new park in Shanghai in 2010.

Ever the peacemaker to Eisner's combative approach, Iger also is credited with calming and settling with dissident shareholders and former board members Roy E. Disney and Stanley Gold (who vow to maintain their scrutiny) and with the parting of Miramax with founders Harvey and Bob Weinstein.

Initially, Iger appears more willing than his predecessor to consider selling off longtime core assets or, at least, reconfiguring its stake in businesses that are marginal and don't quite fit. He is expected to announce soon the sale or strategic equity spinoff of Disney's 40 radio stations or its four ESPN-formatted radio stations, which in total could fetch as much as $3 billion.

Vowing future growth to double-digit earnings per share, Iger assumes command of Disney at a time of mixed results. Lower-than-expected studio earnings are offsetting significantly improved ABC ratings and earnings. Theme park margins are expected to be flat in fiscal-year 2006. Even ABC's upside in primetime might be limited by its aggressive 24% increase in upfront guarantees, which translate into promising advertisers an 8% growth in ratings this season.

But with the ratings for top-ranked broadcast networks having declined at a 6.6% compound annual rate during the past seven seasons, ABC is likely to fall short of that goal -- even if it becomes the dominant network in primetime -- because of what could be another 3% erosion in overall primetime ratings. So JPMorgan analyst Spencer Wang observed in his recent report on the company.

Despite all that, ABC's broadcasting segment is expected to post a 44% year-over-year growth in EBITA to $725 million -- the highest it's been in nearly a decade, Wang said.

Likewise, though ESPN remains a huge quality asset for Disney, its annual affiliate revenue growth will slow to about 8% during the next five years. Its rollout of branded mobile digital content services, hinging on the ESPN, Disney and ABC brands, will be critical in this regard, which are for now generating $50 million of startup losses, according to Kathy Styponias of Prudential Securities.

Coupled with higher NFL rights costs (a total of $8.87 billion or $1.1 billion per year), ESPN margins will flatten out to 20% to 30% during the next five years, along with a flattening of all Disney's cable network margins to about 30% during the same period. As a result, a number of analysts recent lowered their earnings estimates for the company.

ESPN also could be hurt by what inevitably will be lower affiliate fees as a result of negotiations with Comcast and Time Warner, analysts said.

Disney's recent unexpected disclosure that its film unit will post a $260 million to $300 million loss in the fiscal fourth quarter was attributed to poor performance of films and direct-to-video titles. Some analysts believe the losses could reach $365 million, since Disney's overall domestic boxoffice is down 9% and have declined more than that internationally. National boxoffice declines and a greater number of releases at its Miramax unit contributed to some of the studio's dramatic fall in operating profit.

"We're taking a hard look at all aspects of the motion picture business, recognizing there is already change in the marketplace," Iger said. He noted that the company will now focus primarily on Disney branded films and reduce its spending on live action movies.

Disney also is the most exposed of the media conglomerates to fluctuating home video sales, with as much as 20% of its total revenue generated from home video sales worldwide, analysts said.

Disney aims to reduce vulnerability to industry cyclicality and to play a digital hand by distributing its digitally mastered films to as many as 4,000 digitally equipped cinema screens. The approach, announced this month, would save Disney millions of dollars annually by relaying movies by satellite instead of transporting film reels, while better protecting against piracy.

Such moves are important at a time when industrywide slowing of DVD sales and boxoffice attendance, concerns about consumer weakness, and slowing advertiser spending are depressing Disney and other media stocks.

Disney will continue to invest in internal video game development, which should begin to post positive results by 2007 to offset film-related cyclicality, he said.

Wang and other analysts have forecast that Disney's operating income will spike in fiscal 2006 with 16.8% growth and then fall in subsequent years to less than this current fiscal year's projected 9.1% growth.

Analysts widely have lowered their earnings expectations for Disney in the just-ended fiscal 2005. Morgan Stanley analyst Richard Bilotti said Disney will likely continue stock buybacks rather than big ticket acquisitions during the next five years over which he expects the company's earnings to grow 7% on an average 4% growth in revenue.

Iger's response to such challenging circumstances will be to make Disney more entrepreneurial, nimble and responsive, insiders said.

"Disney needs to have an entrepreneurial culture and an entrepreneurial spirit," Iger said. "I have no doubt about the importance and power of brands, and the power of entertainment."
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