Bookies Like 'American Idol's' Chances Vs. 'X Factor'

8:11 PM PDT 5/23/2011 by Georg Szalai

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The veteran Fox show has a 90.9% likelihood of being the highest-rated in 2011, more than three times the odds of the new Simon Cowell show, according to one firm.

NEW YORK -- American Idol is much more likely to be the highest-rated TV show next season than Simon Cowell's new Fox singing competition show X Factor, according to bookies.

The team of oddsmakers at Bookmaker.com have calculated the odds for each of the two shows getting the highest ratings in 2011. While X Factor has a 28.6% chance, Idol has a 90.9% likelihood, according to the firm.

The return on the wager is higher for X Factor at +250, compared to -1,000 for Idol, because betting on the option less likely to occur always earns the most amount of money.

The oddsmakers analyzed media reports and experts opinions on the two Fox music shows to come up with the numbers.

Whether it will be the ratings champion or not, News Corp. executives have said they have high expectations for X Factor. The show will mark former Idol star Cowell's return to U.S. television.