July Fourth Box Office: Few Fireworks Expected as 'BFG,' 'Tarzan' Track Poorly

5:30 AM 6/24/2016

by Pamela McClintock

Call it 'The Purge: Multiplexes' as the usual box-office behemoths are AWOL in the key period between June 24 and the holiday, and wannabes go soft in early tracking. Says analyst Paul Dergarabedian: "This year looks a bit different than in the past."

Warner Bros./Photofest
  • Free State of Jones

    June 24

    STX Entertainment

    Budget: $50M

    STX Entertainment is counting on adults lining up to see the Civil War drama, but prerelease surveys show the Gary Ross-directed film opening in the $8 million to $13 million range, which would be a disappointing start for star Matthew McConaughey.

  • Independence Day: Resurgence

    June 24

    Courtesy of Twentieth Century Fox

    Budget: $165M

    The first Independence Day raced to a record six-day, $96.1 million opening during the July 4 holiday in 1996 ($141 million today). Fox's Resurgence — without Will Smith — hopes for a more modest three-day debut of $50 million.

  • The BFG

    July 1

    Courtesy of Disney

    Budget: $140M

    Steven Spielberg's adaptation of Roald Dahl's children's book may have trouble crossing $30 million in its holiday debut. Disney, Amblin and Participant Media partnered on the film, which will vie for family attention with Disney's Finding Dory.

     

  • The Legend of Tarzan

    July 1

    Warner Bros./Photofest

    Warner Bros. might have another big-budget miss on its hands as Legend of Tarzan, like BFG, may not earn much more than $30 million in its domestic bow. If so, blame stale material and a lack of A-list stars in this franchise play.

  • The Purge: Election Year

    July 1

    Courtesy of YouTube/Universal Pictures

    Budget: $10M

    The third outing in Universal's horror franchise — produced by Jason Blum and Michael Bay — is tracking to open north of $20 million, not bad considering how little it cost. One competitor is Sony's Blake Lively shark movie, The Shallows (June 24).

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