Feinberg Forecast: Oscar Race Standings on the Eve of Thanksgiving

11:04 AM 11/21/2016

by Scott Feinberg

With AFI Fest in the rearview mirror and the holiday break just around the corner, THR's awards analyst offers his latest assessment of the landscape.

Hopper Stone/Twentieth Century Fox Film

These projections are a reflection of Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

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  • Best Picture

    David Lee/Paramount Pictures

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Lionsgate)
    Moonlight (A24)
    Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
    Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
    Fences (Paramount) [pictured above]
    Hell or High Water (CBS Films)
    Hidden Figures (Fox)
    Sully (Warner Bros.)
    Jackie (Fox Searchlight)
    Patriots Day (CBS Films/Lionsgate)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Loving (Focus Features)
    Silence
    (Paramount)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
    20th Century Women (A24)
    Live By Night (Warner Bros.)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Rules Don't Apply (Fox)
    Florence Foster Jenkins (Paramount)
    The Founder (The Weinstein Co.)
    Arrival (Paramount)

    LONG SHOTS

    Nocturnal Animals (Focus Features)
    The Jungle Book
    (Disney)
    The Birth of a Nation
    (Fox Searchlight)
    Eye in the Sky (Bleecker Street)

  • Best Director

    Dale Robinette/Lionsgate

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Damien Chazelle (La La Land) [pictured above]
    Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
    Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
    Denzel Washington (Fences)
    Martin Scorsese (Silence)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
    Ken Loach (I, Daniel Blake)
    Garth Davis (Lion)
    David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)
    Jeff Nichols (Loving)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Clint Eastwood (Sully)
    Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)
    Ben Affleck (Live By Night)
    Pablo Larrain (Jackie)

    LONG SHOTS

    Jon Favreau (The Jungle Book)
    Ted Melfi (Hidden Figures)
    Peter Berg (Patriots Day)
    Mike Mills (20th Century Women)

  • Best Actor

    Mark Rogers/Summit Entertainment

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Denzel Washington (Fences)
    Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
    Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
    Tom Hanks (Sully)
    Michael Keaton (The Founder)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)
    Joel Edgerton (Loving)
    Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge) [pictured above]
    Mark Wahlberg (Patriots Day)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Ben Affleck (Live By Night)
    Matthew McConaughey (Gold)
    Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
    Andrew Garfield (Silence)

    LONG SHOTS

    Robert De Niro (The Comedian)
    Chris Pine (Hell or High Water)
    Miles Teller (Bleed for This)

    Nate Parker (The Birth of a Nation)

  • Best Actress

    Courtesy of Guy Ferrandis/SBS Productions/Sony Pictures Classics

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Emma Stone (La La Land)
    Natalie Portman (Jackie)
    Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
    Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
    Isabelle Huppert (Elle) [pictured above]

    MAJOR THREATS

    Ruth Negga (Loving)
    Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)
    Amy Adams (Arrival)
    Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Lily Collins (Rules Don't Apply)
    Kate Beckinsale (Love & Friendship)
    Marion Cotillard (Allied)

    LONG SHOTS

    Rachel Weisz (Denial)
    Rebecca Hall (Christine)
    Hailee Steinfeld (Edge of Seventeen)

  • Best Supporting Actor

    Courtesy of Edward Echwalu/Disney

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
    Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
    Dev Patel (Lion)
    Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
    Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures)
    Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)
    Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
    Liam Neeson (Silence)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Ben Foster (Hell or High Water)
    Mykelti Williamson (Fences)
    Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)

    Alan Rickman (Eye in the Sky)

    LONG SHOTS

    Eddie Murphy (Mr. Church)
    David Oyelowo (Queen of Katwe) [pictured above]
    Timothy Spall (Denial)
    Aaron Eckhart (Bleed for This)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    Courtesy of Long Way Home Productions

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
    Viola Davis (Fences)
    Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
    Nicole Kidman (Lion) [pictured above]
    Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
    Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky)
    Margo Martindale (The Hollars)
    Sienna Miller (Live By Night) NEW

    POSSIBILITIES

    Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women)
    Elle Fanning (20th Century Women)
    Leslie Mann (The Comedian)

    LONG SHOTS

    Lupita Nyong'o (Queen of Katwe)
    Molly Shannon (Other People)
    Felicity Jones (A Monster Calls)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    Warner Bros.

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Lion (Luke Davies)
    Fences (August Wilson)
    Sully (Todd Komarnicki) [pictured above]
    Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan)
    Live By Night (Ben Affleck)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Silence (Jay Cocks, Martin Scorsese)
    Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi)
    Arrival (Eric Heisserer)
    The Jungle Book (Justin Marks)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Love & Friendship (Whit Stillman)
    Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)
    Julieta (Pedro Almodovar)

    LONG SHOTS
    Snowden (Kieran Fitzgerald, Oliver Stone)
    Denial (David Hare)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (J.K. Rowling)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    The Weinstein Company

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)
    Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
    Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)
    La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
    Captain Fantastic (Matt Ross)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Founder (Robert D. Siegel)
    Loving (Jeff Nichols)
    The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou)
    20th Century Women (Mike Mills)
    Patriots Day (Peter Berg, Matt Cook, Joshua Zetumer)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Jackie (Noah Oppenheim)
    Rules Don't Apply (Warren Beatty, Bo Goldman)
    The Birth of a Nation (Nate Parker)
    I, Daniel Blake (Paul Laverty) 

    LONG SHOTS

    Gold (Patrick Massett, John Zinman) NEW [pictured above]
    The Comedian (Richard LaGravenese, Lewis Friedman, Art Linson, Jeffrey Ross)
    Paterson (Jim Jarmusch)
    Toni Erdmann (Maren Ade)

  • Best Animated Feature

    Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Zootopia (Disney)
    Moana (Disney)
    Kubo and the Two Strings (Focus Features)
    My Life As a Zucchini (GKIDS)
    The Red Turtle (Sony Classics) [pictured above]

    MAJOR THREATS

    Finding Dory (Pixar)
    The Little Prince (Netflix)
    Sausage Party (Sony Animation)
    Trolls (DreamWorks Animation)
    April and the Extraordinary World (GKIDS)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Sing (Illumination/Universal)
    Kung Fu Panda 3 (DreamWorks Animation)
    The Secret Life of Pets (Illumination/Universal)
    Long Way North (Shout!)

    LONG SHOTS

    Miss Hokusai (GKIDS)
    Ice Age: Collision Course (Fox Animation)
    The Angry Birds Movie (Sony Animation)
    Storks (Warner Bros.)
    Phantom Boy (GKIDS)

  • Best Documentary Feature

    Gemini Pictures

    PROJECTED SHORTLIST

    O.J.: Made in America (ESPN)
    I Am Not Your Negro
    (Magnolia)
    Cameraperson (Janus Films)
    Fire at Sea (Kino Lorber)
    Life, Animated (The Orchard)
    Gleason (Amazon/Open Road)
    Weiner (Sundance Selects/Showtime Documentary Films)
    13th (Netflix)
    The Eagle Huntress (Sony Classics)
    Tower (Kino Lorber)
    The Ivory Game (Netflix)
    Miss Sharon Jones! (Starz)
    Hooligan Sparrow (The Film Collaborative)
    Off the Rails (The Film Collaborative) [pictured above]
    The Witness (FilmRise)

    POSSIBILITIES

    First Monday in May (Magnolia)
    Tickled (Magnolia)
    Kate Plays Christine (Grasshopper Film)
    Norman Lear: Just Another Version of You (Music Box)
    Zero Days (Magnolia/Showtime Documentary Films)
    Audrie & Daisy (Netflix)
    We Are X (Drafthouse)
    Newtown (Abramorama)
    By Sidney Lumet (Augusta Films/American Masters)
    Holy Hell (CNN)
    Marathon: The Patriots Day Bombing (HBO Films)
    Author: The JT Leroy Story (Amazon)
    The Music of Strangers (The Orchard)
    Defying the Nazis: The Sharps' War (PBS)
    Presenting Princess Shaw (Magnolia)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Beatles: Eight Days a Week (Hulu/Abramorama)
    De Palma (A24)
    Mapplethorpe: Look at the Pictures (HBO Films)
    Voyage of Time: The IMAX Experience (IMAX)
    Mavis! (HBO)
    Before the Flood
    (National Geographic)
    Into the Inferno (Netflix)
    Amanda Knox (Netflix)
    Trapped
    (Abramorama)
    Nuts! (mTuckman Media)
    Eat That Question: Frank Zappa in His Own Words (Sony Classics)
    Everything Is Copy (HBO Films)
    Command and Control (PBS)
    Do Not Resist (Vanish Films)
    Harry Benson: Shoot First (Magnolia)
    Nothing Left Unsaid: Gloria Vanderbilt & Anderson Cooper (HBO Films)

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    Courtesy of Toronto International Film Festival

    PROJECTED SHORTLIST

    Toni Erdmann (Germany)
    Fire at Sea (Italy)
    Land of Mine (Denmark)
    Elle (France)
    The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (Finland)

    A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
    The Ardennes (Belgium) [pictured above]

    The Idol (Palestine)
    Ma' Rosa (Philippines)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Julieta (Spain)
    The Salesman (Iran)
    Afterimage (Poland)
    Neruda (Chile)

    From Afar (Venezuela)

    My Life As a Zucchini (Switzerland)
    Desierto (Mexico)
    Sand Storm (Israel)

    Paradise (Russia)
    Sieranevada (Romania)
    Nagasaki: Memories of My Son (Japan)
    House of Others (Georgia)
    Under the Shadow (United Kingdom)
    Tonio (Netherlands)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Chevalier (Greece)
    Tanna (Australia)
    Interrogation (India)
    Call Me Thief (South Africa)
    Alias Maria (Colombia)
    Clash (Egypt)
    Stefan Zweig: Farewell to Europe (Austria)
    The Flower of Aleppo (Tunisia)
    Death in Sarajevo (Bosnia & Herzegovina)
    The Companion (Cuba)
    The Distinguished Citizen (Argentina)
    It's Only the End of the World (Canada)

    LONG SHOTS

    Mother (Estonia)
    Very Big Shot (Lebanon)
    Apprentice (Singapore)
    Losers (Bulgaria)
    On the Other Side (Croatia)
    Kills on Wheels (Hungary)
    Barakah Meets Barakah (Saudi Arabia)
    Train Driver's Diary (Serbia)
    Seneca's Day (Lithuania)
    Home Sweet Home (Kosovo)
    The Black Hen (Nepal)
    Raftan (Afghanistan)

  • Best Cinematography

    Courtesy of Sony Pictures Classics

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Jungle Book (Bill Pope)
    Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (John Toll)
    La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
    Live By Night (Robert Richardson)
    Silence (Rodrigo Prieto)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Moonlight (James Laxton)
    The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (JP Passi)
    Hell or High Water (Giles Nuttgens)
    Lion (Grieg Fraser)
    Arrival (Bradford Young)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Simon Duggan)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Sully (Tom Stern)
    Rules Don't Apply (Caleb Deschanel)
    Cafe Society (Vittorio Storaro)
    The BFG (Janusz Kaminski)
    Knight of Cups (Emmanuel Lubezki)
    Hail, Caesar! (Roger Deakins)

    LONG SHOTS

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Grieg Fraser)
    Jackie (Stephane Fontaine)
    Passengers (Rodrigo Prieto)
    Nocturnal Animals (Seamus McGarvey)
    A Monster Calls (Oscar Faura)
    The Eagle Huntress (Simon Niblett) NEW [pictured above]

  • Best Costume Design

    Screenshot/Warner Bros. Pictures/YouTube

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Silence (Dante Ferretti)
    Love & Friendship (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
    Jackie (Madeline Fontaine)
    Live By Night (Jacqueline West) [pictured above]
    Allied (Joanna Johnston)

    MAJOR THREATS

    La La Land (Mary Zophres)
    Captain Fantastic (Courtney Hoffman)
    Rules Don't Apply (Albert Wolsky)
    Hidden Figures (Renee Ehrlich Kalfus)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Fences (Sharen Davis)
    Loving (Erin Benach)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Colleen Atwood)
    The Girl on the Train (Michelle Matland, Ann Roth)

    LONG SHOTS

    The BFG (Joanna Johnston)
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (David Crossman, Glyn Dillon)
    Cafe Society (Suzy Benzinger)
    Kubo and the Two Strings (Deborah Cook) NEW

  • Best Film Editing

    Claire Folger

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Tom Cross)
    Moonlight (Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders)
    Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts)
    Silence (Thelma Schoonmaker)
    Live By Night (William Goldenberg)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Lion (Alexandre de Francheschi)
    Hacksaw Ridge (John Gilbert)
    The Jungle Book (Mark Livolsi)
    Manchester by the Sea (Jennifer Lame) [pictured above]
    Passengers (Maryann Brandon)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Sully (Blu Murray)
    Jackie (Sebastian Sepulveda)
    Fences (Hughes Winborne)
    The Birth of a Nation (Steven Rosenblum)

    LONG SHOTS

    The BFG (Michael Kahn)
    Hidden Figures (Peter Teschner)
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Jabez Olssen)
    Arrival (Joe Walker)

  • Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    PROJECTED SHORTLIST

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    A Monster Calls
    Jackie
    Hidden Figures
    The BFG
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Deadpool

    MAJOR THREATS

    Silence
    The Jungle Book

    Live By Night

    Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children

    POSSIBILITIES

    Suicide Squad
    Fences
    Rules Don't Apply [pictured above]
    La La Land

    LONG SHOTS

    Love & Friendship
    Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

    Captain America: Civil War

  • Best Original Score

    David Bornfriend/A24

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)
    Lion (Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka)
    Hidden Figures (Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams, Benjamin Wallfisch)
    Moana (Opetaia Foa'l, Mark Mancina, Lin Manuel Miranda)
    The BFG (John Williams)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Michael Giacchino)
    Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Mychael Danna, Jeff Danna)
    The Jungle Book (John Debney)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
    Manchester by the Sea (Lesley Barber)
    Moonlight (Nicholas Britell) [pictured above]

    POSSIBILITIES

    Live By Night (Harry Gregson-Williams)
    The Birth of a Nation (Henry Jackman)
    Passengers (Thomas Newman)
    Jackie (Micachu)
    Zootopia (Michael Giacchino)
    Fences (Marcelo Zarvos)

    LONG SHOTS

    Allied (Alan Silvestri)
    Arrival (Johann Johannson)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (James Newton Howard)
    Denial (Howard Shore)
    Queen of Katwe (Alex Heffes)
    The Girl on the Train (Danny Elfman)

  • Best Original Song

    Courtesy of Starz Digital Media/Courtesy Everett Collection

    FRONTRUNNERS

    "City of Stars" (La La Land) — Ryan Gosling
    "Audition" (La La Land) — Emma Stone
    "Dancing with Your Shadow" (Po) — Burt Bacharach
    "We Know the Way" (Moana) — Lin Manuel Miranda
    "Letters to the Free" (13th) — Common

    MAJOR THREATS

    "Can’t Stop the Feeling!" (Trolls) — Justin Timberlake
    "Running" (Hidden Figures) — Pharrell Williams
    "The Great Beyond" (Sausage Party) — Alan Menken, Chris Lennertz
    "The Empty Chair" (The James Foley Story) — J. Ralph, Sting
    "Go Now" (Sing Street) — Adam Levine
    "A Minute to Breathe" (Before the Flood) — Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
    "Flicker" (Audrie & Daisy) — Tori Amos
    "I'm Still Here" (Miss Sharon Jones) — Sharon Jones [pictured above]

    POSSIBILITIES

    "The Rules Don't Apply" (Rules Don't Apply) — Eddie Arkin, Lorraine Feather
    "Victory" (Hidden Figures) — Pharrell Williams
    "Start a Fire" (La La Land) — John Legend
    "Hoping and Healing" (Gleason) — Mike McCready
    "Angel by the Wings" (The Eagle Huntress) — Sia
    "Try Everything" (Zootopia) — Shakira
    "Faith" (Sing) — Stevie Wonder, Ryan Tedder, Francis Farewell Starlite

    LONG SHOTS

    "Set It Free" (Sing) — Scarlett Johansson
    "Gold" (Gold) — written by Brian Burton, Stephen Gaghan, Daniel Pemberton and James Osterberg, performed by Iggy Pop
    "The Veil" (Snowden) — Peter Gabriel
    "Friends" (Angry Birds Movie) — Blake Shelton
    "Just Like Fire" (Alice Through the Looking Glass) — Pink

  • Best Production Design

    Courtesy of Paramount Pictures

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (David Wasco)
    Silence (Dante Ferretti)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Barry Robison)
    Live By Night (Jess Gonchor)
    Hidden Figures (Wynn Thomas)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Jungle Book (Christopher Glass)
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Doug Chiang, Neil Lamont)
    Allied (Gary Freeman) [pictured above]
    Jackie (Jean Rabasse)
    Rules Don't Apply (Jeannine Oppewall)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The BFG (Rick Carter)
    Passengers (Guy Hendrix Dyas)
    Arrival (Patrice Vermette)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Stuart Craig)
    Gold (Maria Djurkovic)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Birth of a Nation (Geoffrey Kirkland)
    Love & Friendship (Anna Rackard)
    Hail, Caesar! (Jess Gonchor)
    A Monster Calls (Eugenio Caballero)

  • Best Sound Editing

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land
    Hacksaw Ridge
    The Jungle Book
    Passengers
    Patriots Day
    [pictured above]

    MAJOR THREATS

    Sully
    Deepwater Horizon
    Live By Night
    Allied

    13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
    Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

    POSSIBILITIES

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    Deadpool

    Zootopia
    Hell or High Water

    The BFG

    LONG SHOTS

    Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
    Captain America: Civil War
    Jason Bourne
    Independence Day: Resurgence
    X-Men: Apocalypse

  • Best Sound Mixing

    David Lee/Summit Entertainment

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land
    Hacksaw Ridge
    The Jungle Book
    Passengers
    Patriots Day

    MAJOR THREATS

    Sully
    Deepwater Horizon [pictured above]
    Live By Night
    Allied

    13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

    Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

    POSSIBILITIES

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    Deadpool

    Zootopia
    Hell or High Water

    The BFG

    LONG SHOTS

    Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
    Captain America: Civil War
    Jason Bourne

    Independence Day: Resurgence
    X-Men: Apocalypse

  • Best Visual Effects

    Kimberley French/Paramount Pictures

    PROJECTED SHORTLIST

    The Jungle Book
    Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
    Doctor Strange

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    A Monster Calls
    Passengers
    Star Trek Beyond [pictured above]
    Deadpool
    The BFG

    Sully

    MAJOR THREATS

    Deepwater Horizon
    10 Cloverfield Lane

    Arrival

    Jason Bourne

    POSSIBILITIES

    Captain America: Civil War
    Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice
    Alice Through the Looking Glass

    LONG SHOTS

    Suicide Squad
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
    X-Men: Apocalypse

  • Best Documentary Short

    Courtesy of Netflix

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Joe’s Violin (Lucky Two Productions)
    The White Helmets (Grain Media and Violet Films)
    Extremis (f/8 Filmworks in association with Motto Pictures) [pictured above]
    4.1 Miles (University of California, Berkeley)
    Close Ties (Munk Studio – Polish Filmmakers Association)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Watani: My Homeland (ITN Productions)
    Frame 394 (Compy Films)
    The Mute's House (The Jerusalem Sam Spiegel Film School)
    The Other Side of Home (Feeln)
    Brillo Box (3¢ Off) (Brillo Box Documentary)




     

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