Feinberg Forecast: The Dust Settles After a Jam-Packed First Week of December

3:09 PM 12/5/2016

by Scott Feinberg

THR's awards analyst sorts through the debris in the wake of several big announcements (Critics' Choice noms, National Board of Review winners, critics groups' picks from both coasts) and the first screenings of 'Silence.'

Adam Driver in 'Paterson'
Adam Driver in 'Paterson'
Courtesy of Cannes

These projections are a reflection of Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

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  • Best Picture

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Lionsgate)
    Moonlight (A24)
    Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
    Hell or High Water (CBS Films)
    Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
    Hidden Figures (Fox)
    Loving (Focus Features)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
    Silence (Paramount) [pictured above]
    Sully (Warner Bros.)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Jackie (Fox Searchlight)
    Fences (Paramount)
    Arrival (Paramount)
    20th Century Women (A24)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Rules Don't Apply (Fox)
    Patriots Day
    (CBS Films/Lionsgate)
    Live By Night
    (Warner Bros.)

    LONG SHOTS

    Nocturnal Animals (Focus Features)
    Florence Foster Jenkins (Paramount)
    The Birth of a Nation
    (Fox Searchlight)

  • Best Director

    Courtesy of Karen Ballard/ CBS Films & Lionsgate Films

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
    Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
    Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
    Martin Scorsese (Silence)
    Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)

    MAJOR THREATS

    David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)
    Denzel Washington (Fences)
    Jeff Nichols (Loving)
    Garth Davis (Lion)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Clint Eastwood (Sully)
    Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)
    Pablo Larrain (Jackie)
    Ted Melfi (Hidden Figures)

    LONG SHOTS

    Ken Loach (I, Daniel Blake)
    Peter Berg (Patriots Day) [pictured above]
    Mike Mills (20th Century Women)

  • Best Actor

    Mark Rogers/Summit Entertainment

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
    Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
    Denzel Washington (Fences)
    Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge) [pictured above]
    Tom Hanks (Sully)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)
    Joel Edgerton (Loving)
    Chris Pine (Hell or High Water)
    Adam Driver (Paterson)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Michael Keaton (The Founder)
    Ben Affleck (Live By Night)
    Matthew McConaughey (Gold)

    LONG SHOTS

    Mark Wahlberg (Patriots Day)
    Andrew Garfield (Silence)

    Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)


     

  • Best Actress

    STX/Screenshot

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Emma Stone (La La Land)
    Natalie Portman (Jackie)
    Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
    Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
    Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Amy Adams (Arrival)
    Ruth Negga (Loving)
    Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)
    Kate Beckinsale (Love & Friendship)
    Lily Collins (Rules Don't Apply)

    LONG SHOTS

    Hailee Steinfeld (Edge of Seventeen) [pictured above]
    Marion Cotillard (Allied)
    Rebecca Hall (Christine)

  • Best Supporting Actor

    Courtesy of Cinelou Films

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
    Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
    Dev Patel (Lion)
    Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
    Ben Foster (Hell or High Water)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures)
    Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins)
    Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
    Issey Ogata (Silence) NEW

    POSSIBILITIES

    David Oyelowo (Queen of Katwe)
    Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)
    Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)

    LONG SHOTS

    Alan Rickman (Eye in the Sky)
    Mykelti Williamson (Fences)
    Eddie Murphy (Mr. Church) [pictured above]

  • Best Supporting Actress

    David Bornfriend/A24

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
    Viola Davis (Fences)
    Nicole Kidman (Lion)
    Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
    Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures)
    Octavia
    Spencer (Hidden Figures)
    Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Sienna Miller (Live By Night)
    Margo Martindale (The Hollars)
    Janelle Monae (Moonlight) [pictured above]

    LONG SHOTS

    Molly Shannon (Other People)
    Lupita Nyong'o (Queen of Katwe)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    Paramount Pictures

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Lion (Luke Davies)
    Fences (August Wilson)
    Sully (Todd Komarnicki)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan)
    Arrival (Eric Heisserer) [pictured above]

    MAJOR THREATS

    Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi)
    Silence (Jay Cocks, Martin Scorsese)
    Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)
    Love & Friendship (Whit Stillman)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Live By Night (Ben Affleck)
    Julieta (Pedro Almodovar)
    The Jungle Book (Justin Marks)

    LONG SHOTS

    Queen of Katwe (William Wheeler)
    Snowden (Kieran Fitzgerald, Oliver Stone)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (J.K. Rowling)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    Courtesy of Stephanie Branchu/Fox Searchlight Pictures

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)
    Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
    Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)
    La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
    The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou)

    MAJOR THREATS

    20th Century Women (Mike Mills)
    Jackie (Noah Oppenheim) [pictured above]
    Loving (Jeff Nichols)
    Captain Fantastic (Matt Ross)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Paterson (Jim Jarmusch)
    Rules Don't Apply (Warren Beatty, Bo Goldman)
    I, Daniel Blake (Paul Laverty)
    The Founder (Robert D. Siegel)

    LONG SHOTS

    Toni Erdmann (Maren Ade)
    Gold (Patrick Massett, John Zinman)
    Patriots Day (Peter Berg, Matt Cook, Joshua Zetumer)
    The Birth of a Nation (Nate Parker)

     

  • Best Animated Feature

    Tokyo Intl. Film Festival

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Zootopia (Disney)
    Kubo and the Two Strings (Focus Features)
    Moana (Disney)
    The Red Turtle (Sony Classics)
    My Life As a Zucchini (GKIDS)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Finding Dory (Pixar)
    The Little Prince (Netflix)
    Your Name. (FUNimation) NEW [pictured above]
    Sausage Party (Sony Animation)
    Trolls (DreamWorks Animation)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Sing (Illumination/Universal)
    April and the Extraordinary World (GKIDS)
    Kung Fu Panda 3 (DreamWorks Animation)
    The Secret Life of Pets (Illumination/Universal)
    Long Way North (Shout!)

    LONG SHOTS

    Miss Hokusai (GKIDS)
    Ice Age: Collision Course (Fox Animation)
    The Angry Birds Movie (Sony Animation)
    Storks (Warner Bros.)
    Phantom Boy (GKIDS)

  • Best Documentary Feature

    Courtesy of TIFF

    PROJECTED SHORTLIST

    O.J.: Made in America (ESPN)
    Cameraperson (Janus Films)
    I Am Not Your Negro
    (Magnolia) [pictured above]
    13th (Netflix)
    Life, Animated (The Orchard)
    Gleason (Amazon/Open Road)
    Fire at Sea (Kino Lorber)
    Weiner (Sundance Selects/Showtime Documentary Films)
    The Eagle Huntress (Sony Classics)
    Tower (Kino Lorber)
    Off the Rails (The Film Collaborative)
    The Ivory Game (Netflix)
    Miss Sharon Jones! (Starz)
    The Witness (FilmRise)
    Hooligan Sparrow (The Film Collaborative)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Marathon: The Patriots Day Bombing (HBO Films)
    First Monday in May (Magnolia)
    Norman Lear: Just Another Version of You (Music Box)
    Tickled (Magnolia)
    Mapplethorpe: Look at the Pictures (HBO Films)
    Under the Sun (Icarus)
    Sonita (Women Make Movies)
    Kate Plays Christine (Grasshopper Film)
    Zero Days (Magnolia/Showtime Documentary Films)
    Audrie & Daisy (Netflix)
    We Are X (Drafthouse)
    Newtown (Abramorama)
    Holy Hell (CNN)
    Author: The JT Leroy Story (Amazon)
    The Music of Strangers (The Orchard)
    Defying the Nazis: The Sharps' War (PBS)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Beatles: Eight Days a Week (Hulu/Abramorama)
    De Palma (A24)
    Presenting Princess Shaw (Magnolia)
    By Sidney Lumet (Augusta Films/American Masters)
    Voyage of Time: The IMAX Experience (IMAX)
    Mavis! (HBO)
    Before the Flood
    (National Geographic)
    Into the Inferno (Netflix)
    Amanda Knox (Netflix)
    Trapped
    (Abramorama)
    Nuts! (mTuckman Media)
    Eat That Question: Frank Zappa in His Own Words (Sony Classics)
    Everything Is Copy (HBO Films)
    Command and Control (PBS)
    Do Not Resist (Vanish Films)
    Harry Benson: Shoot First (Magnolia)
    Nothing Left Unsaid: Gloria Vanderbilt & Anderson Cooper (HBO Films)
    The C Word (Abramorama)

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    Courtesy of Venice International Film Festival

    PROJECTED SHORTLIST

    Toni Erdmann (Germany)
    Fire at Sea (Italy)
    Land of Mine (Denmark)
    Elle (France)
    The Salesman (Iran)
    The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (Finland)

    The Ardennes (Belgium)
    The Idol (Palestine)
    Ma' Rosa (Philippines)

    MAJOR THREATS

    A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
    Julieta (Spain)

    Afterimage (Poland)
    Neruda (Chile)
    Chevalier (Greece)

    From Afar (Venezuela)

    My Life As a Zucchini (Switzerland)
    Desierto (Mexico)
    Under the Shadow (United Kingdom)
    Paradise (Russia)
    Nagasaki: Memories of My Son (Japan)
    House of Others (Georgia)

    Sand Storm (Israel)
    Sieranevada (Romania)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Little Secret (Brazil)
    Age of Shadows (South Korea) [pictured above]
    Tonio (Netherlands)
    Tanna (Australia)
    Interrogation (India)
    Call Me Thief (South Africa)
    Alias Maria (Colombia)
    Clash (Egypt)
    Stefan Zweig: Farewell to Europe (Austria)
    The Flower of Aleppo (Tunisia)
    Death in Sarajevo (Bosnia & Herzegovina)
    The Distinguished Citizen (Argentina)
    It's Only the End of the World (Canada)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Companion (Cuba)
    Mother
    (Estonia)
    Very Big Shot (Lebanon)
    Apprentice (Singapore)
    Losers (Bulgaria)
    On the Other Side (Croatia)
    Kills on Wheels (Hungary)
    Barakah Meets Barakah (Saudi Arabia)
    Train Driver's Diary (Serbia)
    Seneca's Day (Lithuania)
    Home Sweet Home (Kosovo)
    The Black Hen (Nepal)
    Raftan (Afghanistan)

  • Best Cinematography

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Moonlight (James Laxton)
    La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
    Silence (Rodrigo Prieto)
    Arrival (Bradford Young)
    Jackie (Stephane Fontaine)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Live By Night (Robert Richardson)
    Hell or High Water (Giles Nuttgens)
    Nocturnal Animals
    (Seamus McGarvey) [pictured above]
    The Jungle Book (Bill Pope)
    Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (John Toll)
    The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (JP Passi)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Lion (Grieg Fraser)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Simon Duggan)
    Sully (Tom Stern)
    Rules Don't Apply (Caleb Deschanel)
    Cafe Society (Vittorio Storaro)
    The BFG (Janusz Kaminski)

    LONG SHOTS

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Grieg Fraser)
    Passengers (Rodrigo Prieto)
    Knight of Cups (Emmanuel Lubezki)
    Hail, Caesar! (Roger Deakins)

    A Monster Calls (Oscar Faura)
    The Eagle Huntress (Simon Niblett)

  • Best Costume Design

    Jaap Buitendijk/Warner Bros.

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Jackie (Madeline Fontaine)
    Love & Friendship (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
    Allied (Joanna Johnston)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Colleen Atwood) [pictured above]
    La La Land (Mary Zophres)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Florence Foster Jenkins (Consolata Boyle)
    Silence (Dante Ferretti)
    Live By Night (Jacqueline West)
    Captain Fantastic (Courtney Hoffman)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Rules Don't Apply (Albert Wolsky)
    Hidden Figures (Renee Ehrlich Kalfus)
    Fences (Sharen Davis)
    Loving (Erin Benach)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Girl on the Train (Michelle Matland, Ann Roth)
    The BFG (Joanna Johnston)
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (David Crossman, Glyn Dillon)
    Cafe Society (Suzy Benzinger)

  • Best Film Editing

    Warner Bros.

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Tom Cross)
    Moonlight (Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders)
    Hacksaw Ridge (John Gilbert)
    Silence (Thelma Schoonmaker)
    Sully (Blu Murray) [pictured above]

    MAJOR THREATS

    Arrival (Joe Walker)
    Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts)
    Live By Night (William Goldenberg)
    Jackie (Sebastian Sepulveda)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Lion (Alexandre de Francheschi)
    Manchester by the Sea (Jennifer Lame)
    Passengers (Maryann Brandon)
    The Jungle Book (Mark Livolsi)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Birth of a Nation (Steven Rosenblum)
    The BFG (Michael Kahn)
    Hidden Figures (Peter Teschner)
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Jabez Olssen)

     
  • Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    David Lee/Paramount Pictures

    PROJECTED SHORTLIST

    Hacksaw Ridge
    Jackie
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
    Doctor Strange
    Star Trek Beyond

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

    Deadpool

    MAJOR THREATS

    Silence
    A Monster Calls
    Suicide Squad

    Hidden Figures
    The BFG

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Jungle Book
    Live By Night

    Fences [pictured above]
    Rules Don't Apply
    La La Land

    LONG SHOTS

    Love & Friendship
    Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children

    Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

    Captain America: Civil War

  • Best Original Score

    Mark Rogers/Long Way Productions

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)
    Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)
    Lion (Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka) [pictured above]
    Jackie (Micachu)
    Arrival (Johann Johannson)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The BFG (John Williams)
    Hidden Figures (Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams, Benjamin Wallfisch)
    Moana (Opetaia Foa'l, Mark Mancina, Lin Manuel Miranda)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Michael Giacchino)
    The Jungle Book (John Debney)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Manchester by the Sea (Lesley Barber)
    Live By Night (Harry Gregson-Williams)
    The Birth of a Nation (Henry Jackman)
    Passengers (Thomas Newman)
    Zootopia (Michael Giacchino)
    Fences (Marcelo Zarvos)

    LONG SHOTS

    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (James Newton Howard)
    Allied (Alan Silvestri)
    Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Mychael Danna, Jeff Danna)
    Denial (Howard Shore)
    Queen of Katwe (Alex Heffes)
    The Girl on the Train (Danny Elfman)

  • Best Original Song

    Courtesy of Sundance Institute

    FRONTRUNNERS

    "City of Stars" (La La Land)
    "Audition" (La La Land)
    "We Know the Way" (Moana)
    "Dancing with Your Shadow" (Po)
    "Letters to the Free" (13th)

    MAJOR THREATS

    "The Rules Don't Apply" (Rules Don't Apply)
    "Drive It Like You Stole It" (Sing Street)
    "The Great Beyond" (Sausage Party)
    "A Minute to Breathe" (Before the Flood)
    "The Empty Chair" (Jim: The James Foley Story)
    "Flicker" (Audrie & Daisy)
    "Running" (Hidden Figures)

    POSSIBILITIES

    "Can’t Stop the Feeling!" (Trolls)
    "Go Now" (Sing Street)
    "I'm Still Here" (Miss Sharon Jones)
    "Victory" (Hidden Figures)
    "Start a Fire" (La La Land)
    "Hoping and Healing" (Gleason)
    "Angel by the Wings" (The Eagle Huntress)

    LONG SHOTS

    "Try Everything" (Zootopia)
    "Faith" (Sing)
    "Set It Free" (Sing)
    "Gold" (Gold)
    "The Veil" (Snowden)
    "Friends" (Angry Birds Movie)
    "Just Like Fire" (Alice Through the Looking Glass)

  • Best Production Design

    Francois Duhamel

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (David Wasco)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Barry Robison)
    Jackie (Jean Rabasse)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Stuart Craig)
    Live By Night (Jess Gonchor)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Silence (Dante Ferretti)
    Arrival (Patrice Vermette)
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Doug Chiang, Neil Lamont)
    The Jungle Book (Christopher Glass)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Rules Don't Apply (Jeannine Oppewall) [pictured above]
    Passengers (Guy Hendrix Dyas)
    Allied (Gary Freeman)
    Hidden Figures (Wynn Thomas)

    LONG SHOTS

    The BFG (Rick Carter)
    Gold (Maria Djurkovic)
    The Birth of a Nation (Geoffrey Kirkland)
    Love & Friendship (Anna Rackard)

  • Best Sound Editing

    Courtesy of Paramount Pictures

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land
    Hacksaw Ridge
    The Jungle Book
    Passengers
    Deepwater Horizon

    MAJOR THREATS

    Sully
    Patriots Day
    Live By Night
    Allied
    [pictured above]
    13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

    POSSIBILITIES

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    Deadpool

    Zootopia
    Hell or High Water

    The BFG

    LONG SHOTS

    Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
    Captain America: Civil War
    Jason Bourne
    Independence Day: Resurgence
    X-Men: Apocalypse

  • Best Sound Mixing

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land
    Hacksaw Ridge
    The Jungle Book
    Passengers
    Deepwater Horizon

    MAJOR THREATS

    Sully
    Live By Night [pictured above]
    Patriots Day
    Allied
    13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

    POSSIBILITIES

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    Deadpool

    Zootopia
    Hell or High Water

    The BFG

    LONG SHOTS

    Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
    Captain America: Civil War
    Jason Bourne

    Independence Day: Resurgence
    X-Men: Apocalypse

  • Best Visual Effects

    Courtesy of Marvel

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Jungle Book
    Doctor Strange [pictured above]
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    Arrival

    Deadpool

    MAJOR THREATS

    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
    Passengers

    Star Trek Beyond

    The BFG

    Suicide Squad

    POSSIBILITIES

    Deepwater Horizon
    Sully
    Captain America: Civil War
    Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice
    Alice Through the Looking Glass

    LONG SHOTS

    X-Men: Apocalypse
    Independence Day: Resurgence
    Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children
    Warcraft
    Kubo and the Two Strings

  • Best Animated Short

    Screenshot/The CGBros/YouTube

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Inner Workings (Disney)
    Piper (Pixar)
    Once Upon a Line (University of Southern California)
    The Head Vanishes (National Film Board of Canada and ARTE France Cinema Department)
    Happy End (Film and TV School of the Academy of Performing Arts in Prague)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Borrowed Time (Quorum Films) [pictured above]
    Blind Vaysha (National Film Board of Canada)
    Pearl (Google Spotlight Stories/Evil Eye Pictures)
    Pear Cider and Cigarettes (Massive Swerve Studios and Passion Pictures Animation)
    Sous Tes Doigts (Under Your Fingers) (Vivement Lundi! and Novanima)

  • Best Documentary Short

    Courtesy of Netflix

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Joe’s Violin (Lucky Two Productions) 
    The White Helmets (Grain Media and Violet Films)
    Extremis (f/8 Filmworks in association with Motto Pictures) [pictured above]
    4.1 Miles (University of California, Berkeley)
    Close Ties (Munk Studio – Polish Filmmakers Association)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Watani: My Homeland (ITN Productions)
    Frame 394 (Compy Films)
    The Mute's House (The Jerusalem Sam Spiegel Film School)
    The Other Side of Home (Feeln)
    Brillo Box (3¢ Off) (Brillo Box Documentary)

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