Feinberg Forecast: The Oscar Race After AFI, Critics' Choice and Golden Globes Noms

9:45 AM 12/13/2016

by Scott Feinberg

THR's awards analyst offers his latest read of the race.

Mel Gibson on the set of 'Hacksaw Ridge'
Mel Gibson on the set of 'Hacksaw Ridge'
Mark Rogers

These projections are a reflection of Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

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  • Best Picture

    Paramount Pictures

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Lionsgate)
    Moonlight (A24)
    Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
    Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
    Hell or High Water (CBS Films)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
    Fences (Paramount)
    Arrival (Paramount) [pictured above]
    Silence (Paramount)
    Jackie (Fox Searchlight)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Loving (Focus Features)
    Sully (Warner Bros.)
    Hidden Figures (Fox)
    20th Century Women (A24)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Nocturnal Animals (Focus Features)
    Florence Foster Jenkins (Paramount)
    Deadpool (Fox)

    LONG SHOTS

    Rules Don't Apply (Fox)
    Patriots Day
    (CBS Films/Lionsgate)
    Live By Night
    (Warner Bros.)

  • Best Director

    Jeff Spicer/Getty Images)

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
    Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
    Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
    Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
    Denis Villeneueve (Arrival)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Martin Scorsese (Silence)
    David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)
    Denzel Washington (Fences)
    Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals) [pictured above]

    POSSIBILITIES

    Garth Davis (Lion)
    Jeff Nichols (Loving)
    Clint Eastwood (Sully)
    Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)

    LONG SHOTS

    Ken Loach (I, Daniel Blake)
    Pablo Larrain (Jackie)
    Mike Mills (20th Century Women)
    Ted Melfi (Hidden Figures)

  • Best Actor

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
    Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
    Denzel Washington (Fences) [pictured above]
    Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
    Joel Edgerton (Loving)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Tom Hanks (Sully)
    Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
    Michael Keaton (The Founder)

    Adam Driver (Paterson)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Chris Pine (Hell or High Water)
    Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)
    Ben Affleck (Live By Night)
    Matthew McConaughey (Gold)

    LONG SHOTS

    Mark Wahlberg (Patriots Day)
    Andrew Garfield (Silence)
    Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool)

    Jonah Hill (War Dogs) NEW
     

  • Best Actress

    Kerry Hayes/EuropaCorp

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Emma Stone (La La Land)
    Natalie Portman (Jackie)
    Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
    Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
    Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Ruth Negga (Loving)
    Amy Adams (Arrival)
    Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane) [pictured above]

    POSSIBILITIES

    Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)
    Lily Collins (Rules Don't Apply)
    Kate Beckinsale (Love & Friendship)

    LONG SHOTS

    Hailee Steinfeld (Edge of Seventeen)
    Marion Cotillard (Allied)
    Rebecca Hall (Christine)

  • Best Supporting Actor

    Courtesy of TIFF

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) [pictured above]
    Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
    Dev
    Patel (Lion)
    Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
    Ben Foster (Hell or High Water)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins)
    Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)
    Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
    Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures)
    David Oyelowo (Queen of Katwe)
    Issey Ogata (Silence)

    LONG SHOTS

    Alan Rickman (Eye in the Sky)
    Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)
    Mykelti Williamson (Fences)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    Courtesy of Hopper Stone/Twentieth Century Fox

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Viola Davis (Fences)
    Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
    Nicole Kidman (Lion)
    Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
    Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures) [pictured above]
    Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures)
    Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky)
    Gretchen Mol (Manchester By the Sea) NEW

    POSSIBILITIES

    Felicity Jones (A Monster Calls)
    Sienna Miller (Live By Night)
    Margo Martindale (The Hollars)
    Teresa Palmer (Hacksaw Ridge) NEW

    LONG SHOTS

    Lily Gladstone (Certain Women) NEW
    Lupita Nyong'o (Queen of Katwe)
    Janelle Monae (Moonlight)
    Molly Shannon (Other People)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    Warner Bros.

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Lion (Luke Davies)
    Arrival (Eric Heisserer)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan)
    Fences (August Wilson)
    Sully (Todd Komarnicki) [pictured above]

    MAJOR THREATS

    Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)
    Silence (Jay Cocks, Martin Scorsese)
    Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi)
    Love & Friendship (Whit Stillman)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Live By Night (Ben Affleck)
    Elle (David Birke) NEW
    Julieta (Pedro Almodovar)
    The Jungle Book (Justin Marks)

    LONG SHOTS

    Queen of Katwe (William Wheeler)
    Snowden (Kieran Fitzgerald, Oliver Stone)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (J.K. Rowling)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    Lionsgate/Screenshot

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
    Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)
    La La Land (Damien Chazelle) [pictured above]
    Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)

    The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Loving (Jeff Nichols)
    20th Century Women (Mike Mills)
    Jackie (Noah Oppenheim)
    Captain Fantastic (Matt Ross)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Zootopia (Jared Bush, Phil Johnston)
    Paterson (Jim Jarmusch)
    I, Daniel Blake (Paul Laverty)
    The Founder (Robert D. Siegel)

    LONG SHOTS

    Rules Don't Apply (Warren Beatty, Bo Goldman)
    Toni Erdmann
    (Maren Ade)
    Gold (Patrick Massett, John Zinman)

  • Best Animated Feature

    Laika Studios/Focus Features

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Zootopia (Disney)
    Kubo and the Two Strings (Focus Features) [pictured above]
    Moana (Disney)
    The Red Turtle (Sony Classics)
    My Life As a Zucchini (GKIDS)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Finding Dory (Pixar)
    The Little Prince (Netflix)
    Your Name. (FUNimation) 
    Sausage Party (Sony Animation)
    Trolls (DreamWorks Animation)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Sing (Illumination/Universal)
    April and the Extraordinary World (GKIDS)
    Kung Fu Panda 3 (DreamWorks Animation)
    The Secret Life of Pets (Illumination/Universal)
    Long Way North (Shout!)

    LONG SHOTS

    Miss Hokusai (GKIDS)
    Ice Age: Collision Course (Fox Animation)
    The Angry Birds Movie (Sony Animation)
    Storks (Warner Bros.)
    Phantom Boy (GKIDS)

  • Best Documentary Feature

    Courtesy of Sundance Institute

    FRONTRUNNERS

    I Am Not Your Negro (Magnolia)
    Cameraperson (Janus Films)
    13th (Netflix)
    Life, Animated (The Orchard)
    O.J.: Made in America (ESPN)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Gleason (Amazon/Open Road)
    Tower (Kino Lorber)
    Weiner (Sundance Selects/Showtime Documentary Films)
    Fire at Sea (Kino Lorber)
    Hooligan Sparrow (The Film Collaborative) [pictured above]

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Eagle Huntress (Sony Classics)
    The Ivory Game (Netflix)
    The Witness (FilmRise)
    Zero Days
    (Magnolia/Showtime Documentary Films)
    Command and Control (PBS)

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    Meteoriit Ou

    PROJECTED SHORTLIST

    Toni Erdmann (Germany)
    Elle (France)
    Fire at Sea (Italy)
    The Salesman (Iran)
    Neruda (Chile)
    Land of Mine (Denmark)
    Julieta (Spain)
    The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (Finland)

    The Ardennes (Belgium)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Idol (Palestine)
    Ma' Rosa (Philippines)
    A Man Called Ove
    (Sweden)

    Afterimage (Poland)
    Tanna (Australia)
    Chevalier (Greece)

    From Afar (Venezuela)

    My Life As a Zucchini (Switzerland)
    Desierto (Mexico)
    Under the Shadow (United Kingdom)
    Paradise (Russia)
    Nagasaki: Memories of My Son (Japan)
    House of Others (Georgia)

    Sand Storm (Israel)
    Sieranevada (Romania)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Little Secret (Brazil)
    Age of Shadows (South Korea)
    Tonio (Netherlands)
    Interrogation (India)
    Call Me Thief (South Africa)
    Alias Maria (Colombia)
    Clash (Egypt)
    Stefan Zweig: Farewell to Europe (Austria)
    The Flower of Aleppo (Tunisia)
    Death in Sarajevo (Bosnia & Herzegovina)
    The Distinguished Citizen (Argentina)
    It's Only the End of the World (Canada)

    LONG SHOTS

    About Us (Costa Rica)
    The Companion
    (Cuba)
    Mother
    (Estonia) [pictured above]
    Very Big Shot (Lebanon)
    Apprentice (Singapore)
    Losers (Bulgaria)
    On the Other Side (Croatia)
    Kills on Wheels (Hungary)
    Barakah Meets Barakah (Saudi Arabia)
    Train Driver's Diary (Serbia)
    Seneca's Day (Lithuania)
    Home Sweet Home (Kosovo)
    The Black Hen (Nepal)
    Raftan (Afghanistan)

  • Best Cinematography

    David Bornfriend

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Moonlight (James Laxton) [pictured above]
    La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
    Arrival (Bradford Young)
    Jackie (Stephane Fontaine)
    Nocturnal Animals (Seamus McGarvey)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Silence (Rodrigo Prieto)
    Live By Night (Robert Richardson)
    Hell or High Water (Giles Nuttgens)
    Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (John Toll)
    Lion (Grieg Fraser)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Simon Duggan)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Jungle Book (Bill Pope)
    The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (JP Passi)
    Rules Don't Apply (Caleb Deschanel)
    Sully (Tom Stern)
    Cafe Society (Vittorio Storaro)
    The BFG (Janusz Kaminski)

    LONG SHOTS

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Grieg Fraser)
    Passengers (Rodrigo Prieto)
    Knight of Cups (Emmanuel Lubezki)
    Hail, Caesar! (Roger Deakins)

    A Monster Calls (Oscar Faura)
    The Eagle Huntress (Simon Niblett)

  • Best Costume Design

    We Are the Rhoads

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Jackie (Madeline Fontaine)
    Love & Friendship (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
    Allied (Joanna Johnston)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Colleen Atwood)
    La La Land (Mary Zophres)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Florence Foster Jenkins (Consolata Boyle)
    Live By Night (Jacqueline West)
    Captain Fantastic (Courtney Hoffman)
    Silence (Dante Ferretti)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Rules Don't Apply (Albert Wolsky)
    Loving (Erin Benach) [pictured above]
    Hidden Figures (Renee Ehrlich Kalfus)
    Fences (Sharen Davis)

    LONG SHOTS

    Cafe Society (Suzy Benzinger)
    The Girl on the Train (Michelle Matland, Ann Roth)
    The BFG (Joanna Johnston)
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (David Crossman, Glyn Dillon)

  • Best Film Editing

    Mark Rogers

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Tom Cross)
    Moonlight (Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders)
    Hacksaw Ridge (John Gilbert) [pictured above]
    Silence (Thelma Schoonmaker)
    Arrival (Joe Walker)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Sully (Blu Murray)
    Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts)
    Live By Night (William Goldenberg)
    Jackie (Sebastian Sepulveda)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Lion (Alexandre de Francheschi)
    Manchester by the Sea (Jennifer Lame)
    Passengers (Maryann Brandon)

    LONG SHOTS

    The BFG (Michael Kahn)
    The Jungle Book (Mark Livolsi)
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Jabez Olssen)

     
  • Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    Courtesy of Fox Searchlight

    PROJECTED SHORTLIST

    Jackie [pictured above]
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
    Doctor Strange
    Star Trek Beyond
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    Hacksaw Ridge

    Deadpool

    MAJOR THREATS

    Silence
    A Monster Calls
    Love & Friendship
    Suicide Squad

    The BFG

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Jungle Book
    Live By Night

    Fences
    Rules Don't Apply
    La La Land

    LONG SHOTS

    Hidden Figures
    Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children

    Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

    Captain America: Civil War

  • Best Original Score

    Claire Folger

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)
    Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)
    Lion (Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka)
    Arrival (Johann Johannson)
    Jackie (Micachu)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Hacksaw Ridge (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
    Hidden Figures (Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams, Benjamin Wallfisch)
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Michael Giacchino)
    The BFG (John Williams)
    Moana (Opetaia Foa'l, Mark Mancina, Lin Manuel Miranda)
    The Jungle Book (John Debney)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Passengers (Thomas Newman)
    Live By Night (Harry Gregson-Williams)
    The Birth of a Nation (Henry Jackman)
    Manchester by the Sea (Lesley Barber) [pictured above]
    Zootopia (Michael Giacchino)

    LONG SHOTS

    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (James Newton Howard)
    Allied (Alan Silvestri)
    Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Mychael Danna, Jeff Danna)
    Denial (Howard Shore)
    The Girl on the Train (Danny Elfman)

  • Best Original Song

    Courtesy of Disney

    FRONTRUNNERS

    "City of Stars" (La La Land)
    "How Far I'll Go" (Moana) [pictured above]
    "Dancing with Your Shadow" (Po)
    "Letters to the Free" (13th)
    "Audition" (La La Land)

    MAJOR THREATS

    "The Rules Don't Apply" (Rules Don't Apply)
    "The Great Beyond" (Sausage Party)
    "Drive It Like You Stole It" (Sing Street)
    "The Empty Chair" (Jim: The James Foley Story)
    "Can’t Stop the Feeling!" (Trolls)
    "Back to Life" (Queen of Katwe)
    "Flicker" (Audrie & Daisy)
    "Gold" (Gold)

    POSSIBILITIES

    "Faith" (Sing)
    "A Minute to Breathe" (Before the Flood)
    "Running" (Hidden Figures)
    "Go Now" (Sing Street)
    "I'm Still Here" (Miss Sharon Jones)
    "Victory" (Hidden Figures)
    "Start a Fire" (La La Land)

    LONG SHOTS

    "Hoping and Healing" (Gleason)
    "Angel by the Wings" (The Eagle Huntress)
    "Try Everything" (Zootopia)
    "Set It Free" (Sing)
    "The Veil" (Snowden)
    "Friends" (Angry Birds Movie)
    "Just Like Fire" (Alice Through the Looking Glass)

  • Best Production Design

    Kerry Brown/Paramount Pictures

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (David Wasco)
    Jackie (Jean Rabasse)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Barry Robison)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Stuart Craig)
    Live By Night (Jess Gonchor)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Arrival (Patrice Vermette)
    Silence (Dante Ferretti) [pictured above]
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Doug Chiang, Neil Lamont)
    The Jungle Book (Christopher Glass)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Rules Don't Apply (Jeannine Oppewall)
    Passengers (Guy Hendrix Dyas)
    Allied (Gary Freeman)

    LONG SHOTS

    The BFG (Rick Carter)
    Hidden Figures (Wynn Thomas)
    Gold (Maria Djurkovic)

  • Best Sound Editing

    Jonathan Olley/Lucasfilm

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land
    Hacksaw Ridge
    The Jungle Book
    Passengers
    Deepwater Horizon

    MAJOR THREATS

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story [pictured above]
    Deadpool
    Sully
    Live By Night
    Allied

    POSSIBILITIES

    13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
    Patriots Day

    Zootopia
    Hell or High Water

    The BFG

    LONG SHOTS

    Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
    Captain America: Civil War
    Jason Bourne
    Independence Day: Resurgence
    X-Men: Apocalypse

  • Best Sound Mixing

    Courtesy of Marvel

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land
    Hacksaw Ridge
    The Jungle Book
    Passengers
    Deepwater Horizon

    MAJOR THREATS

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    Deadpool
    [pictured above]
    Sully
    Live By Night
    Allied

    POSSIBILITIES

    13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
    Patriots Day

    Zootopia
    Hell or High Water
    The BFG

    LONG SHOTS

    Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
    Captain America: Civil War
    Jason Bourne

    Independence Day: Resurgence
    X-Men: Apocalypse

  • Best Visual Effects

    Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Jungle Book
    Doctor Strange
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    Arrival

    Deadpool

    MAJOR THREATS

    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them [pictured above]
    Passengers
    Star Trek Beyond
    The BFG

    Suicide Squad

    POSSIBILITIES

    Deepwater Horizon
    Sully
    Captain America: Civil War
    Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice
    Alice Through the Looking Glass

    LONG SHOTS

    X-Men: Apocalypse
    Independence Day: Resurgence
    Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children
    Warcraft
    Kubo and the Two Strings

     

  • Best Animated Short

    Courtesy of Papi3D Productions

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Inner Workings (Disney)
    Piper (Pixar)
    Once Upon a Line (University of Southern California)
    The Head Vanishes (National Film Board of Canada and ARTE France Cinema Department) [pictured above]
    Happy End (Film and TV School of the Academy of Performing Arts in Prague)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Borrowed Time (Quorum Films)
    Blind Vaysha (National Film Board of Canada)
    Pearl (Google Spotlight Stories/Evil Eye Pictures)
    Pear Cider and Cigarettes (Massive Swerve Studios and Passion Pictures Animation)
    Sous Tes Doigts (Under Your Fingers) (Vivement Lundi! and Novanima)

  • Best Documentary Short

    Vimeo screengrab

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Joe’s Violin (Lucky Two Productions) 
    The White Helmets (Grain Media and Violet Films)
    Extremis (f/8 Filmworks in association with Motto Pictures)
    4.1 Miles (University of California, Berkeley) [pictured above]
    Close Ties (Munk Studio – Polish Filmmakers Association)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Watani: My Homeland (ITN Productions)
    Frame 394 (Compy Films)
    The Mute's House (The Jerusalem Sam Spiegel Film School)
    The Other Side of Home (Feeln)
    Brillo Box (3¢ Off) (Brillo Box Documentary)

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