Feinberg Forecast: Happy Holidays, Everyone — Enjoy the Calm Before the Storm!

5:54 PM 12/19/2016

by Scott Feinberg

THR's awards analyst shares his latest take on the race in the aftermath of Golden Globe and SAG noms, the rise of 'Rogue One' and the fall of 'Passengers' — and just ahead of the holiday break.

'Captain Fantastic'
'Captain Fantastic'
Courtesy of Sundance Institute

These projections are a reflection of Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

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  • Best Picture

    Courtesy of Paramount Pictures

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Lionsgate)
    Moonlight (A24)
    Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
    Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
    Hell or High Water (CBS Films)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
    Hidden Figures (Fox)
    Arrival (Paramount)
    Jackie (Fox Searchlight)
    Sully (Warner Bros.)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Loving (Focus Features)
    Silence (Paramount)
    Fences (Paramount)
    Florence Foster Jenkins (Paramount) [pictured above]

    POSSIBILITIES

    Captain Fantastic (Bleecker Street)
    Nocturnal Animals (Focus Features)
    20th Century Women (A24)

    LONG SHOTS

    Rules Don't Apply (Fox)
    Patriots Day
    (CBS Films/Lionsgate)
    Live By Night
    (Warner Bros.)

  • Best Director

    Courtesy of Mark Rogers/ Long Way Home Productions/The Weinstein Company

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
    Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
    Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
    Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
    Denis Villeneueve (Arrival)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Denzel Washington (Fences)
    Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)
    Martin Scorsese (Silence)
    Garth Davis (Lion) [pictured above]

    POSSIBILITIES

    Clint Eastwood (Sully)
    David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)
    Jeff Nichols (Loving)
    Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)

    LONG SHOTS

    Ken Loach (I, Daniel Blake)
    Pablo Larrain (Jackie)
    Mike Mills (20th Century Women)
    Ted Melfi (Hidden Figures)

  • Best Actor

    Courtesy of Alchemy/Sundance Institute

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
    Denzel Washington (Fences)
    Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
    Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
    Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Tom Hanks (Sully)
    Joel Edgerton (Loving)
    Michael Keaton (The Founder)
    Adam Driver (Paterson)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)
    Andrew Garfield (Silence)
    Colin Farrell (The Lobster) [pictured above]
    Chris Pine (Hell or High Water)

    LONG SHOTS

    Mark Wahlberg (Patriots Day)
    Ben Affleck (Live By Night)
    Matthew McConaughey (Gold)
    Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool)

  • Best Actress

    Courtesy of Dream Works Pictures

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Emma Stone (La La Land)
    Natalie Portman (Jackie)
    Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
    Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
    Annette Bening (20th Century Women)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Amy Adams (Arrival)
    Ruth Negga (Loving)
    Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Lily Collins (Rules Don't Apply)
    Hailee
    Steinfeld (Edge of Seventeen)
    Taraji
    P. Henson (Hidden Figures)

    LONG SHOTS

    Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train) [pictured above]
    Kate Beckinsale (Love & Friendship)
    Marion Cotillard (Allied)
    Rebecca Hall (Christine)

  • Best Supporting Actor

    Photofest

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
    Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
    Dev Patel (Lion)
    Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
    Ben Foster (Hell or High Water)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins)
    Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)

    Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
    Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures) [pictured above]
    David Oyelowo (Queen of Katwe)
    Issey Ogata (Silence)

    LONG SHOTS

    Alan Rickman (Eye in the Sky)
    Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)
    Mykelti Williamson (Fences)

  • Best Supporting Actress

    Courtesy of TIFF

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Viola Davis (Fences)
    Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
    Nicole Kidman (Lion)
    Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
    Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women)
    Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures)
    Margo Martindale (The Hollars)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Felicity Jones (A Monster Calls) [pictured above]
    Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky)
    Lupita Nyong'o (Queen of Katwe)

    LONG SHOTS

    Janelle Monae (Moonlight)
    Molly Shannon (Other People)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    David Bornfriend

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Moonlight (Barry Jenkins) [pictured above]
    Lion (Luke Davies)
    Fences (August Wilson)
    Arrival (Eric Heisserer)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)
    Sully (Todd Komarnicki)
    Silence (Jay Cocks, Martin Scorsese)
    Loving (Jeff Nichols)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi)
    Love & Friendship (Whit Stillman)
    Julieta (Pedro Almodovar)

    LONG SHOTS

    The Jungle Book (Justin Marks)
    Live By Night (Ben Affleck)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (J.K. Rowling)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    Disney

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
    La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
    Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)

    The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou)
    Captain Fantastic (Matt Ross)

    MAJOR THREATS

    20th Century Women (Mike Mills)
    Jackie (Noah Oppenheim)
    Zootopia (Jared Bush, Phil Johnston) [pictured above]

    POSSIBILITIES

    Paterson (Jim Jarmusch)
    I, Daniel Blake (Paul Laverty)
    The Founder (Robert D. Siegel)

    LONG SHOTS

    Rules Don't Apply (Warren Beatty, Bo Goldman)
    Toni Erdmann
    (Maren Ade)

  • Best Animated Feature

    Courtesy of FOX Family Entertainment

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Zootopia (Disney)
    Kubo and the Two Strings (Focus Features)
    Moana (Disney)
    My Life As a Zucchini (GKIDS)
    The Red Turtle (Sony Classics)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The Little Prince (Netflix)
    Finding Dory
    (Pixar)

    Your Name. (FUNimation) 
    Sausage Party (Sony Animation)
    Trolls (DreamWorks Animation)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Sing (Illumination/Universal)
    April and the Extraordinary World (GKIDS)
    Kung Fu Panda 3 (DreamWorks Animation)
    The Secret Life of Pets (Illumination/Universal)
    Long Way North (Shout!)

    LONG SHOTS

    Miss Hokusai (GKIDS)
    Ice Age: Collision Course (Fox Animation) [pictured above]
    The Angry Birds Movie (Sony Animation)
    Storks (Warner Bros.)
    Phantom Boy (GKIDS)

  • Best Documentary Feature

    Courtesy of New York Film Festival

    FRONTRUNNERS

    I Am Not Your Negro (Magnolia)
    Cameraperson (Janus Films)
    13th (Netflix)
    Life, Animated (The Orchard)
    O.J.: Made in America (ESPN)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Hooligan Sparrow (The Film Collaborative)
    Weiner (Sundance Selects/Showtime Documentary Films)
    Fire at Sea (Kino Lorber)
    Gleason
    (Amazon/Open Road)
    Tower (Kino Lorber)

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Eagle Huntress (Sony Classics)
    The Ivory Game (Netflix)
    The Witness (FilmRise) [pictured above]
    Zero Days
    (Magnolia/Showtime Documentary Films)
    Command and Control (PBS)

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Toni Erdmann (Germany)
    The Salesman (Iran)
    Land of Mine (Denmark)
    A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
    Tanna (Australia)

    MAJOR THREATS

    The King's Choice (Norway)
    My Life As a Zucchini (Switzerland)
    Paradise (Russia) [pictured above]
    It's Only the End of the World (Canada)

  • Best Cinematography

    Claire Folger

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
    Moonlight (James Laxton)
    Arrival (Bradford Young)
    Nocturnal Animals (Seamus McGarvey)
    Silence (Rodrigo Prieto)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Grieg Fraser)
    Lion (Grieg Fraser)
    Jackie (Stephane Fontaine)
    Hell or High Water (Giles Nuttgens)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Simon Duggan)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Manchester by the Sea (Jody Lee Pipes) [pictured above]
    Rules Don't Apply (Caleb Deschanel)
    Live By Night (Robert Richardson)
    The Jungle Book (Bill Pope)
    Sully (Tom Stern)

    LONG SHOTS

    Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (John Toll)
    The BFG (Janusz Kaminski)
    Cafe Society (Vittorio Storaro)
    Knight of Cups (Emmanuel Lubezki)
    Hail, Caesar! (Roger Deakins)

  • Best Costume Design

    Courtesy of Claire Folger/Warner Bros.

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Jackie (Madeline Fontaine)
    Love & Friendship (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
    Allied (Joanna Johnston)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Colleen Atwood)
    La La Land (Mary Zophres)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (David Crossman, Glyn Dillon)
    Florence Foster Jenkins (Consolata Boyle)
    Live By Night (Jacqueline West) [pictured above]
    Captain Fantastic (Courtney Hoffman)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Rules Don't Apply (Albert Wolsky)
    Silence (Dante Ferretti)
    Loving (Erin Benach)
    Hidden Figures (Renee Ehrlich Kalfus)

    LONG SHOTS

    Cafe Society (Suzy Benzinger)
    Fences (Sharen Davis)
    The Girl on the Train (Michelle Matland, Ann Roth)
    The BFG (Joanna Johnston)
     

  • Best Film Editing

    Lorey Sebastian

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Tom Cross)
    Moonlight (Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders)
    Hacksaw Ridge (John Gilbert)
    Silence (Thelma Schoonmaker)
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (John Gilroy, Jabez Olssen, Colin Goudie)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Arrival (Joe Walker)
    Sully (Blu Murray)
    Lion (Alexandre de Francheschi)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts) [pictured above]
    Live By Night (William Goldenberg)
    Jackie (Sebastian Sepulveda)

    LONG SHOTS

    Manchester by the Sea (Jennifer Lame)
    The BFG (Michael Kahn)
    The Jungle Book (Mark Livolsi)

     
  • Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    Courtesy of Mark Rogers/Cross Creek Pictures

    PROJECTED SHORTLIST

    Jackie
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
    Doctor Strange
    Star Trek Beyond
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    Hacksaw Ridge
    [pictured above]
    Deadpool

    MAJOR THREATS

    Silence
    A Monster Calls
    Love & Friendship
    Suicide Squad

    The BFG

    POSSIBILITIES

    The Jungle Book
    Live By Night

    Fences
    Rules Don't Apply
    La La Land

    LONG SHOTS

    Hidden Figures
    Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children

    Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

    Captain America: Civil War

  • Best Original Score

    Twentieth Century Fox Films

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)
    Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)
    Lion (Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
    Hidden Figures (Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams, Benjamin Wallfisch) [pictured above]

    MAJOR THREATS

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Michael Giacchino)
    Jackie (Micachu)
    The BFG (John Williams)
    The Jungle Book (John Debney)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Passengers (Thomas Newman)
    Moana (Opetaia Foa'l, Mark Mancina, Lin Manuel Miranda)
    Live By Night (Harry Gregson-Williams)

    LONG SHOTS

    Zootopia (Michael Giacchino)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (James Newton Howard)
    Allied (Alan Silvestri)

  • Best Original Song

    Courtesy of Toronto International Film Festival

    FRONTRUNNERS

    "City of Stars" (La La Land)
    "How Far I'll Go" (Moana)
    "Dancing with Your Shadow" (Po)
    "Letters to the Free" (13th)
    "Audition" (La La Land)

    MAJOR THREATS

    "The Rules Don't Apply" (Rules Don't Apply)
    "The Great Beyond" (Sausage Party)
    "Drive It Like You Stole It" (Sing Street)
    "The Empty Chair" (Jim: The James Foley Story)
    "Can’t Stop the Feeling!" (Trolls)
    "Back to Life" (Queen of Katwe)
    "Flicker" (Audrie & Daisy)
    "Gold" (Gold)

    POSSIBILITIES

    "Faith" (Sing)
    "A Minute to Breathe" (Before the Flood)
    "Running" (Hidden Figures)
    "Go Now" (Sing Street)
    "I'm Still Here" (Miss Sharon Jones)
    "Victory" (Hidden Figures)
    "Start a Fire" (La La Land)
    "Heathens" (Suicide Squad)

    LONG SHOTS

    "Hoping and Healing" (Gleason)
    "Angel by the Wings" (The Eagle Huntress)
    "Try Everything" (Zootopia)
    "Set It Free" (Sing)
    "The Veil" (Snowden) [pictured above]
    "Friends" (Angry Birds Movie)
    "Just Like Fire" (Alice Through the Looking Glass)

  • Best Production Design

    Jonathan Olley/Lucasfilm

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land (David Wasco)
    Jackie (Jean Rabasse)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Barry Robison)
    Arrival (Patrice Vermette)
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Doug Chiang, Neil Lamont) [pictured above]

    MAJOR THREATS

    Silence (Dante Ferretti)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Stuart Craig)
    The Jungle Book (Christopher Glass)

    POSSIBILITIES

    Rules Don't Apply (Jeannine Oppewall)
    Live By Night (Jess Gonchor)
    Allied (Gary Freeman)

    LONG SHOTS

    Passengers (Guy Hendrix Dyas)
    The BFG (Rick Carter)
    Hidden Figures (Wynn Thomas)

  • Best Sound Editing

    Universal Pictures

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

    The Jungle Book
    Deepwater Horizon

    MAJOR THREATS

    Deadpool
    Sully
    Live By Night
    Allied
    Passengers

    POSSIBILITIES

    13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
    Patriots Day

    Zootopia
    Hell or High Water

    The BFG

    LONG SHOTS

    Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
    Captain America: Civil War
    Jason Bourne [pictured above]
    Independence Day: Resurgence
    X-Men: Apocalypse

  • Best Sound Mixing

    Courtesy of Walt Disney Pictures

    FRONTRUNNERS

    La La Land
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

    The Jungle Book [pictured above]
    Deepwater Horizon

    MAJOR THREATS

    Deadpool
    Passengers
    Sully
    Live By Night
    Allied

    POSSIBILITIES

    13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
    Patriots Day

    Zootopia
    Hell or High Water
    The BFG

    LONG SHOTS

    Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
    Captain America: Civil War
    Jason Bourne

    Independence Day: Resurgence
    X-Men: Apocalypse

  • Best Visual Effects

    John Leonhardt/Laika Studios/Focus Features

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The Jungle Book
    Doctor Strange
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    Arrival

    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

    MAJOR THREATS

    Passengers
    The BFG

    Deepwater Horizon
    Captain America: Civil War
    Kubo and the Two Strings
    [pictured above]

  • Best Animated Short

    Courtesy of Massive Swerve

    FRONTRUNNERS

    Inner Workings (Disney)
    Piper (Pixar)
    Once Upon a Line (University of Southern California)
    The Head Vanishes (National Film Board of Canada and ARTE France Cinema Department)
    Happy End (Film and TV School of the Academy of Performing Arts in Prague)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Borrowed Time (Quorum Films)
    Blind Vaysha (National Film Board of Canada)
    Pearl (Google Spotlight Stories/Evil Eye Pictures)
    Pear Cider and Cigarettes (Massive Swerve Studios and Passion Pictures Animation) [pictured above]
    Sous Tes Doigts (Under Your Fingers) (Vivement Lundi! and Novanima)

  • Best Documentary Short

    Courtesy of Netflix

    FRONTRUNNERS

    The White Helmets (Grain Media and Violet Films) [pictured above]
    Joe’s Violin (Lucky Two Productions)
    Extremis (f/8 Filmworks in association with Motto Pictures)
    4.1 Miles (University of California, Berkeley)
    Close Ties (Munk Studio – Polish Filmmakers Association)

    MAJOR THREATS

    Watani: My Homeland (ITN Productions)
    Frame 394 (Compy Films)
    The Mute's House (The Jerusalem Sam Spiegel Film School)
    The Other Side of Home (Feeln)
    Brillo Box (3¢ Off) (Brillo Box Documentary)

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