Feinberg Forecast: First Read of the Race Post Oscar Noms, PGA Awards and SAG Awards

6:30 AM 1/31/2017

by Scott Feinberg

THR's awards analyst updates his charts to reflect the PGA victory of 'La La Land' using the same preferential ballot that the Academy uses, Denzel Washington's upset at the SAG Awards, the dominance of 'O.J.: Made in America' and 'Zootopia' at the guild awards and much more.

'Hidden Figures'
'Hidden Figures'
Hopper Stone/Twentieth Century Fox

These projections are a reflection of Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

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  • Best Picture

    Forest Whitaker in 'Arrival'
    Forest Whitaker in 'Arrival'
    Paramount Pictures

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La La Land (Lionsgate)
    Moonlight (A24)
    Hidden Figures (Fox)
    Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
    Arrival (Paramount)
    Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
    Hell or High Water (CBS Films/Lionsgate)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
    Fences (Paramount)

  • Best Director

    Damien Chazelle on 'La La Land' set with Emma Stone
    Damien Chazelle on 'La La Land' set with Emma Stone
    Dale Robinette

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
    Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
    Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
    Denis Villeneueve (Arrival)
    Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)

  • Best Actor

    Andrew Garfield in 'Hacksaw Ridge'
    Andrew Garfield in 'Hacksaw Ridge'
    Mark Rogers/Summit Entertainment

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Denzel Washington (Fences) — podcast
    Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) — podcast
    Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
    Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
    Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic) — podcast

  • Best Actress

    Meryl Streep in 'Florence Foster Jenkins'
    Meryl Streep in 'Florence Foster Jenkins'
    Courtesy of Paramount Pictures

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Emma Stone (La La Land)
    Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
    Natalie Portman (Jackie) — podcast
    Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) — podcast
    Ruth Negga (Loving) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actor

    Dev Patel with David Wenham and Nicole Kidman in 'Lion'
    Dev Patel with David Wenham and Nicole Kidman in 'Lion'
    The Weinstein Company

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) — podcast
    Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water) — podcast
    Dev Patel (Lion) [pictured above]
    Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
    Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actress

    Michelle Williams in 'Manchester by the Sea'
    Michelle Williams in 'Manchester by the Sea'
    Courtesy of Calire Folger/Amazon Studios and Roadside Attractions

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Viola Davis (Fences)
    Naomie Harris (Moonlight) — podcast
    Nicole Kidman (Lion) — podcast
    Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
    Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    Denzel Washington and Viola Davis in 'Fences'
    Denzel Washington and Viola Davis in 'Fences'
    Courtesy of Paramount Pictures

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)
    Lion (Luke Davies)
    Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi)
    Arrival (Eric Heisserer)
    Fences (August Wilson)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    Elle Fanning in '20th Century Women'
    Elle Fanning in '20th Century Women'
    Courtesy of A24

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
    La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
    Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)

    The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou)
    20th Century Women (Mike Mills)

  • Best Animated Feature

    'My Life as a Zucchini'
    'My Life as a Zucchini'

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Zootopia (Disney)
    Moana (Disney)
    Kubo and the Two Strings (Focus Features)
    My Life As a Zucchini (GKIDS)
    The Red Turtle
    (Sony Classics)

     

  • Best Documentary Feature

    'Life, Animated'
    'Life, Animated'
    Courtesy of Sundance Institute

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    O.J.: Made in America (ESPN)
    13th (Netflix)
    Life, Animated
    (The Orchard)
    I Am Not Your Negro
    (Magnolia)
    Fire at Sea (Kino Lorber)

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    'Tanna'
    'Tanna'
    Philippe Penel

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    The Salesman (Iran)
    Toni Erdmann
    (Germany)
    A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
    Land of Mine (Denmark)
    Tanna (Australia)

  • Best Cinematography

    Adam Driver and Andrew Garfield in 'Silence'
    Adam Driver and Andrew Garfield in 'Silence'
    Courtesy of Paramount Pictures

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
    Moonlight (James Laxton)
    Arrival (Bradford Young)
    Lion (Grieg Fraser)
    Silence
    (Rodrigo Prieto)

  • Best Costume Design

    Natalie Portman in 'Jackie'
    Natalie Portman in 'Jackie'
    Fox Searchlight Pictures

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La La Land (Mary Zophres)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
    (Colleen Atwood)
    Jackie
    (Madeline Fontaine)
    Florence Foster Jenkins (Consolata Boyle)
    Allied (Joanna Johnston)

  • Best Film Editing

    Ben Foster and Chris Pine in 'Hell or High Water'
    Ben Foster and Chris Pine in 'Hell or High Water'
    Lorey Sebastian

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La La Land (Tom Cross)
    Moonlight (Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders)
    Hacksaw Ridge
    (John Gilbert)
    Arrival (Joe Walker)
    Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts)

     
     
  • Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    Margot Robbie in 'Suicide Squad'
    Margot Robbie in 'Suicide Squad'
    Warner Bros.

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Suicide Squad
    Star Trek Beyond
    A Man Called Ove

  • Best Original Score

    Chris Pratt and Jennifer Lawrence in 'Passengers'
    Chris Pratt and Jennifer Lawrence in 'Passengers'
    Jaimie Trueblood/Columbia Pictures

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)
    Lion (Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka)
    Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)
    Passengers (Thomas Newman)
    Jackie (Mica Levi)

  • Best Original Song

    'Trolls'
    'Trolls'
    Courtesy of DreamWorks Animation

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    "City of Stars" (La La Land)
    "Audition" (La La Land)
    "Can’t Stop the Feeling!" (Trolls) — podcast (Justin Timberlake)
    "How Far I'll Go" (Moana)
    "The Empty Chair" (Jim: The James Foley Story) — podcast (Sting) & podcast (J. Ralph)

  • Best Production Design

    'Hail, Caesar!'
    'Hail, Caesar!'
    SCOTT LUKOWSKI/UNIVERSAL PICTURES/COURTESY OF JESS GONCHOR

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La La Land (Sandy Reynolds-Wasco, David Wasco)
    Arrival (Patrice Vermette)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Stuart Craig)
    Passengers (Guy Hendrix Dyas, Gene Serdena)
    Hail, Caesar!
    (Jess Gonchor, Nancy Haigh)

  • Best Sound Editing

    Tom Hanks in 'Sully'
    Tom Hanks in 'Sully'
    Warner Bros.

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La La Land
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Sully

    Arrival

    Deepwater Horizon

  • Best Sound Mixing

    John Krasinski in '13 Hours'
    John Krasinski in '13 Hours'
    Courtesy of Paramount Pictures

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La La Land
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Arrival

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

    13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

  • Best Visual Effects

    Neel Sethi in 'The Jungle Book'
    Neel Sethi in 'The Jungle Book'
    Courtesy of Disney

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    The Jungle Book

    Doctor Strange

    Deepwater Horizon
    Kubo and the Two Strings

  • Best Animated Short

    'Pearl'
    'Pearl'
    Courtesy of Google Spotlight Stories

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Piper
    Pearl
    Borrowed Time

    Blind Vaysha
    Pear Cider and Cigarettes

  • Best Documentary Short

    'Joe's Violin'
    'Joe's Violin'
    Courtesy of Bob Richman

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    The White Helmets (Grain Media and Violet Films)
    Joe’s Violin (Lucky Two Productions)
    Extremis (f/8 Filmworks in association with Motto Pictures)
    4.1 Miles (University of California, Berkeley)
    Watani: My Homeland
    (ITN Productions)

  • Best Live Action Short

    'La Femme et le TGV'
    'La Femme et le TGV'
    Courtesy of SND Films

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La Femme et le TGV
    Sing
    Timecode
    Ennemis Interieurs
    Silent Nights

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