Feinberg Forecast: Less Than a Week Remaining Before Final Oscar Voting

12:20 PM 2/7/2017

by Scott Feinberg

THR's awards analyst steps away from the Santa Barbara International Film Festival to attend the Oscar Nominees Luncheon and take the temperature of all 24 Oscar categories.

'La La Land'
'La La Land'
Courtesy of Lionsgate

These projections are a reflection of Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

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  • Best Picture

    'Fences'
    'Fences'
    Courtesy of Paramount Pictures

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La La Land (Lionsgate)
    Moonlight (A24)
    Hidden Figures (Fox)
    Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
    Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
    Hell or High Water (CBS Films/Lionsgate)
    Arrival (Paramount)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
    Fences (Paramount)

  • Best Director

    'Hacksaw Ridge'
    'Hacksaw Ridge'
    Courtesy of Cosmos Filmed Entertainment

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
    Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
    Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
    Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
    Denis Villeneueve (Arrival)

  • Best Actor

    'Captain Fantastic'
    'Captain Fantastic'
    Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Denzel Washington (Fences) — podcast
    Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) — podcast
    Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
    Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge) — podcast
    Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic) — podcast

  • Best Actress

    'Elle'
    'Elle'
    Guy Ferrandis/SBS Productions, Courtesy of Sony Pictures Classics

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Emma Stone (La La Land) — podcast
    Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
    Natalie Portman (Jackie) — podcast
    Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) — podcast
    Ruth Negga (Loving) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actor

    'Manchester by the Sea'
    'Manchester by the Sea'
    Claire Folger/Roadside Attractions

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) — podcast
    Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water) — podcast
    Dev Patel (Lion) [pictured above] — podcast
    Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
    Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actress

    'Hidden Figures'
    'Hidden Figures'
    Courtesy of Hopper Stone

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Viola Davis (Fences)
    Naomie Harris (Moonlight) — podcast
    Nicole Kidman (Lion) — podcast
    Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
    Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    'Arrival'
    'Arrival'
    Courtesy of Paramount Pictures

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)
    Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi)

    Lion (Luke Davies)
    Fences (August Wilson)
    Arrival (Eric Heisserer)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    'Hell or High Water'
    'Hell or High Water'
    Courtesy of Lorey Sebastian/CBS Films

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
    La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
    Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)

    The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou)
    20th Century Women (Mike Mills)

  • Best Animated Feature

    'Moana'
    'Moana'
    Courtesy of Disney

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Zootopia (Disney)
    Moana (Disney)
    Kubo and the Two Strings (Focus Features)
    The Red Turtle
    (Sony Classics)
    My Life As a Zucchini (GKIDS)

     

  • Best Documentary Feature

    'I Am Not Your Negro'
    'I Am Not Your Negro'
    Courtesy of TIFF

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    O.J.: Made in America (ESPN)
    I Am Not Your Negro
    (Magnolia)
    13th (Netflix)
    Life, Animated
    (The Orchard)
    Fire at Sea (Kino Lorber)

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    'The Salesman'
    'The Salesman'

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    The Salesman (Iran)
    Toni Erdmann
    (Germany)
    A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
    Land of Mine (Denmark)
    Tanna (Australia)

  • Best Cinematography

    'Moonlight'
    'Moonlight'
    Courtesy of A24

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
    Lion (Grieg Fraser)
    Moonlight (James Laxton)
    Arrival (Bradford Young)
    Silence
    (Rodrigo Prieto)

  • Best Costume Design

    'Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them'
    'Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them'
    Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc.

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Colleen Atwood)
    Jackie
    (Madeline Fontaine)
    La La Land (Mary Zophres)
    Florence Foster Jenkins (Consolata Boyle)
    Allied (Joanna Johnston)

  • Best Film Editing

    'Hacksaw Ridge'
    'Hacksaw Ridge'
    Mark Rogers/Summit Entertainment

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La La Land (Tom Cross)
    Moonlight (Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders)
    Hacksaw Ridge
    (John Gilbert)
    Arrival (Joe Walker)
    Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts)

     
     
  • Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    'Star Trek Beyond'
    'Star Trek Beyond'
    Kimberley French/Paramount

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Suicide Squad
    Star Trek Beyond
    A Man Called Ove

  • Best Original Score

    'Jackie'
    'Jackie'
    Courtesy of Bruno Calvo/Twentieth Century Fox Film

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)
    Lion (Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka)
    Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)
    Passengers (Thomas Newman)
    Jackie (Mica Levi)

  • Best Original Song

    'Jim: The James Foley Story'
    'Jim: The James Foley Story'
    AP Images

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    "City of Stars" (La La Land), Justin Hurwitz, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
    "Can’t Stop the Feeling!" (Trolls), Justin Timberlake, Max Martin and Shellback — podcast (Timberlake)
    "How Far I'll Go" (Moana), Lin-Manuel Miranda — podcast
    "Audition" (La La Land), Justin Hurwitz, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
    "The Empty Chair" (Jim: The James Foley Story), Sting and J. Ralph — podcast (Sting) & podcast (J. Ralph)

  • Best Production Design

    'Passengers'
    'Passengers'
    Courtesy of Columbia Pictures

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La La Land (Sandy Reynolds-Wasco, David Wasco)
    Arrival (Patrice Vermette)
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Stuart Craig)
    Passengers (Guy Hendrix Dyas, Gene Serdena)
    Hail, Caesar!
    (Jess Gonchor, Nancy Haigh)

  • Best Sound Editing

    'Deepwater Horizon'
    'Deepwater Horizon'
    David Lee/Summit Entertainment

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La La Land
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Sully

    Arrival

    Deepwater Horizon

  • Best Sound Mixing

    'Rogue One: A Star Wars Story'
    'Rogue One: A Star Wars Story'
    Jonathan Olley/Lucasfilm

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La La Land
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Arrival

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

    13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

  • Best Visual Effects

    'Kubo and the Two Strings'
    'Kubo and the Two Strings'
    Courtesy of John Leonhardt/Laika Studios/Focus Features

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    The Jungle Book

    Doctor Strange

    Deepwater Horizon
    Kubo and the Two Strings

  • Best Animated Short

    'Piper'
    'Piper'
    Courtesy of Pixar

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Piper
    Pearl
    Borrowed Time

    Blind Vaysha
    Pear Cider and Cigarettes

  • Best Documentary Short

    'Extremis'
    'Extremis'
    Courtesy of Netflix

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    The White Helmets (Grain Media and Violet Films)
    Joe’s Violin (Lucky Two Productions)
    Extremis (f/8 Filmworks in association with Motto Pictures)
    4.1 Miles (University of California, Berkeley)
    Watani: My Homeland
    (ITN Productions)

  • Best Live Action Short

    'La Femme et le TGV'
    'La Femme et le TGV'
    Courtesy of SND Films

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La Femme et le TGV
    Sing
    Timecode
    Ennemis Interieurs
    Silent Nights

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