Feinberg Forecast: The Final Round of Oscar Voting Is Underway

9:17 AM 2/14/2017

by Scott Feinberg

THR's awards analyst updates his picks in the aftermath of the BAFTA, USC Scripter, Art Directors Guild, Society of Camera Operators, NAACP Image and Grammy awards.

'Manchester by the Sea'
'Manchester by the Sea'
Courtesy of K Period Media

These projections are a reflection of Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

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  • Best Picture

    'Lion'
    'Lion'
    Mark Rogers/Long Way Productions

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La La Land (Lionsgate)
    Moonlight (A24)
    Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
    Hidden Figures (Fox)
    Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
    Hell or High Water (CBS Films/Lionsgate)
    Arrival (Paramount)
    Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
    Fences (Paramount)

  • Best Director

    'La La Land'
    'La La Land'
    Dale Robinette/Lionsgate

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
    Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
    Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
    Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
    Denis Villeneueve (Arrival)

  • Best Actor

    'Hacksaw Ridge'
    'Hacksaw Ridge'
    Mark Rogers/Summit Entertainment

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Denzel Washington (Fences) — podcast
    Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) — podcast
    Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
    Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge) — podcast
    Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic) — podcast

  • Best Actress

    'Jackie'
    'Jackie'
    Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Emma Stone (La La Land) — podcast
    Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
    Natalie Portman (Jackie) — podcast
    Ruth
    Negga (Loving) — podcast
    Meryl
    Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actor

    'Nocturnal Animals'
    'Nocturnal Animals'
    Courtesy of Focus Features

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) — podcast
    Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water) — podcast
    Dev Patel (Lion) — podcast
    Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
    Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals) — podcast

  • Best Supporting Actress

    'Moonlight'
    'Moonlight'
    Courtesy of TIFF

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Viola Davis (Fences)
    Naomie Harris (Moonlight) — podcast
    Nicole Kidman (Lion) — podcast
    Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
    Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)

  • Best Adapted Screenplay

    'Hidden Figures'
    'Hidden Figures'
    Hopper Stone/Twentieth Century Fox

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Moonlight (Barry Jenkins, Story by Tarell Alvin McCraney)
    Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi)

    Lion (Luke Davies)
    Fences (August Wilson)
    Arrival (Eric Heisserer)

  • Best Original Screenplay

    '20th Century Women'
    '20th Century Women'
    Courtesy of A24

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
    La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
    Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)

    The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou)
    20th Century Women (Mike Mills)

  • Best Animated Feature

    'The Red Turtle'
    'The Red Turtle'
    Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Zootopia (Byron Howard, Rich Moore and Clark Spencer - Disney)
    Moana (Claude Barras and Max Karli - Disney)
    Kubo and the Two Strings (Travis Knight and Arianne Sutner - Focus Features)
    The Red Turtle
    (Michael Dudok de Wit and Toshio Suzuki - Sony Classics)
    My Life As a Zucchini (Claude Barras and Max Karli - GKIDS)

     

  • Best Documentary Feature

    'O.J.: Made in America'
    'O.J.: Made in America'
    Courtesy of ESPN

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    O.J.: Made in America (Ezra Edelman and Caroline Waterlow - ESPN)
    I Am Not Your Negro
    (Raoul Peck, Remi Grellety and Hebert Peck - Magnolia)
    13th (Ava DuVernay, Spencer Averick and Howard Barish - Netflix)
    Life, Animated
    (Roger Ross Williams and Julie Goldman - The Orchard)
    Fire at Sea (Gianfranco Rosi and Donatella Palermo - Kino Lorber)

  • Best Foreign Language Film

    'Toni Erdmann'
    'Toni Erdmann'
    Courtesy of Komplizen Film

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    The Salesman (Iran - Asghar Farhadi)
    Toni Erdmann
    (Germany - Maren Ade)
    A Man Called Ove (Sweden - Hans Holm)
    Land of Mine (Denmark - Martin Pieter Zandvliet)
    Tanna (Australia - Bently Dean, Martin Butler)

  • Best Cinematography

    'Silence'
    'Silence'
    Courtesy of Paramount Pictures

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
    Lion (Grieg Fraser)
    Moonlight (James Laxton)
    Arrival (Bradford Young)
    Silence
    (Rodrigo Prieto)

  • Best Costume Design

    'Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them'
    'Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them'
    Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc.

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Colleen Atwood)
    Jackie
    (Madeline Fontaine)
    La La Land (Mary Zophres)
    Florence Foster Jenkins (Consolata Boyle)
    Allied (Joanna Johnston)

  • Best Film Editing

    'Hell or High Water'
    'Hell or High Water'
    Lorey Sebastian

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La La Land (Tom Cross)
    Moonlight (Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders)
    Hacksaw Ridge
    (John Gilbert)
    Arrival (Joe Walker)
    Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts)

     
     
  • Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    'Star Trek Beyond'
    'Star Trek Beyond'
    Warner Bros.

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Suicide Squad (Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini and Christopher Nelson)
    Star Trek Beyond (Joel Harlow and Richard Alonzo)
    A Man Called Ove (Eva von Bahr and Love Larson)

  • Best Original Score

    'Passengers'
    'Passengers'
    Courtesy of Sony Pictures

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)
    Lion (Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka)
    Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)
    Passengers (Thomas Newman)
    Jackie (Mica Levi)

  • Best Original Song

    'La La Land'
    'La La Land'
    Dale Robinette

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    "City of Stars" (La La Land), Justin Hurwitz, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
    "Can’t Stop the Feeling!" (Trolls), Justin Timberlake, Max Martin and Shellback — podcast (Timberlake)
    "How Far I'll Go" (Moana), Lin-Manuel Miranda — podcast
    "Audition" (La La Land), Justin Hurwitz, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
    "The Empty Chair" (Jim: The James Foley Story), Sting and J. Ralph — podcast (Sting) & podcast (J. Ralph)

  • Best Production Design

    'Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them'
    'Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them'
    Courtesy of Warner Brothers Entertainment

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La La Land (Production design: David Wasco; Set decoration: Sandy Reynolds-Wasco)

    Arrival (Production design: Patrice Vermette; Set decoration: Paul Hotte)

    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Production design: Stuart Craig; Set decoration: Anna Pinnock)

    Passengers (Production design: Guy Hendrix Dyas; Set decoration: Gene Serdena)

    Hail, Caesar! (Production design: Jess Gonchor; Set decoration: Nancy Haigh)

  • Best Sound Editing

    'Sully'
    'Sully'
    Photofest

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La La Land (Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan)

    Hacksaw Ridge (Robert Mackenzie and Andy Wright)

    Arrival (Sylvain Bellemare)

    Sully (Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman)

    Deepwater Horizon (Wylie Stateman and Renée Tondelli)

  • Best Sound Mixing

    'Rogue One: A Star Wars Story'
    'Rogue One: A Star Wars Story'
    Courtesy of Jonathan Olley/Lucasfilm Ltd.

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La La Land (Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee and Steve A. Morrow)

    Hacksaw Ridge (Kevin O’Connell, Andy Wright, Robert Mackenzie and Peter Grace)

    Arrival (Bernard Gariepy Strobl and Claude La Haye)

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (David Parker, Christopher Scarabosio and Stuart Wilson)

    13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi (Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Mac Ruth)

  • Best Visual Effects

    'Kubo and the Two Strings'
    'Kubo and the Two Strings'
    Courtesy of Marvel Studios

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    The Jungle Book (Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones and Dan Lemmon)

    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (John Knoll, Mohen Leo, Hal Hickel and Neil Corbould)

    Doctor Strange (Stephane Ceretti, Richard Bluff, Vincent Cirelli and Paul Corbould)

    Deepwater Horizon (Craig Hammack, Jason Snell, Jason Billington and Burt Dalton)

    Kubo and the Two Strings (Steve Emerson, Oliver Jones, Brian McLean and Brad Schiff)

  • Best Animated Short

    'Blind Vaysha'
    'Blind Vaysha'
    Courtesy of TIFF

    PROJECTED NOMINEES

    Piper (Alan Barillaro and Marc Sondheimer)

    Pearl (Patrick Osborne)

    Borrowed Time (Andrew Coats and Lou Hamou-Lhadj)

    Blind Vaysha (Theodore Ushev)

    Pear Cider and Cigarettes (Robert Valley and Cara Speller)

  • Best Documentary Short

    'Extremis'
    'Extremis'
    Courtesy of Netflix

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    Joe’s Violin (Kahane Cooperman and Raphaela Neihausen - Lucky Two Productions)

    The White Helmets (Orlando von Einsiedel and Joanna Natasegara - Grain Media and Violet Films)

    Extremis (Dan Krauss - f/8 Filmworks in association with Motto Pictures)

    4.1 Miles (Daphne Matziaraki - University of California, Berkeley)

    Watani: My Homeland (Marcel Mettelsiefen and Stephen Ellis - ITN Productions)

  • Best Live Action Short

    'La Femme et le TGV'
    'La Femme et le TGV'
    Courtesy of SND Films

    PROJECTED STANDINGS

    La Femme et le TGV (Timo von Gunten and Giacun Caduff)

    Sing (Kristof Deak and Anna Udvardy)

    Timecode (Juanjo Gimenez)

    Ennemis Interieurs (Selim Azzazi)

    Silent Nights (Aske Bang and Kim Magnusson)

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