Fall TV Premiere Week: The Winners and Losers

10:58 AM PST 09/29/2011 by Marisa Guthrie
Greg Gayne/Fox

The season's new comedies like Fox’s “New Girl” come out ahead, while drama and reality franchises have their work cut out for them.

This piece appears in the new issue of The Hollywood Reporter. Click here to see the cover.

And they're off! Which TV horses look strongest out of the gate and which might need to be put down.

THE WINNERS

Comedy

As the U.S. teeters on the precipice of a double-dip recession, laughter truly might be the best medicine. Ashton Kutcher's Sept. 19 debut on CBS' Two and a Half Men generated a football-sized 29 million viewers, and the second week's 20.5 million still topped last season's average with Charlie Sheen. How I Met Your Mother debuted up double digits, and 2 Broke Girls, which benefited from a monster Men lead-in, pulled in an astounding 7.1 rating in the 18-to-49 demo.

On Fox, the Sept. 20 premiere of New Girl bested its Glee lead-in and gave the network its highest-rated fall sitcom debut since The Bernie Mac Show in November 2001. The third-season premiere of Modern Family on Sept. 21 delivered ABC's top-rated season debut in six years, and lead-in The Middle hit a series high. Even Whitney, eviscerated by critics, improved on Community's 2010 premiere in the slot, though NBC's other Thursday comedies -- including a Steve Carell-free The Office -- were down.

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Friday

The networks were up 16 percent in aggregate compared with the first Friday a year ago. Caveat alert: Last year, Fox was DOA on the night with a Human Target rerun and failed drama The Good Guys. So gains this year for Kitchen Nightmares and Fringe offset slight declines elsewhere. CBS continued to win with an all-original lineup of A Gifted Man, CSI: NY and Blue Bloods. Meanwhile, NBC's Dateline is consistently beating ABC's 20/20 at 10 p.m.; it was up 25 percent year-over-year for its Sept. 23 season opener. And beginning Oct. 21, ABC and NBC will program original content on the long-neglected night. Extreme Makeover: Home Edition will lead off for ABC; Chuck and Grimm will do the same for NBC.

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Fox

For the first time, Fox won premiere week in the 18-to-49 demo, despite a nearly 30 percent drop for the Sept. 20 premiere of Glee and a somewhat soft 12.5 million viewers for The X Factor -- especially in light of that show's stratospheric ad rates (as much as $400,000 for a 30-second spot). But with New Girl off to a rousing start and X Factor nonetheless juicing Wednesday and Thursday, Fox was up 26 percent compared with week one of 2010-11 -- though Terra Nova's middling debut Sept. 26 is a disappointment.

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THE LOSERS

Reality Franchises

Nearly every returning competition show bowed to lows: The Sept. 19 Dancing With the Stars on ABC notched its lowest-rated premiere, tumbling 24 percent compared with last fall's opener. NBC's The Sing-Off was down 30 percent-plus compared with its previous bow in December. CBS' Survivor notched its lowest-rated fall premiere. The Sept. 20 bow of NBC's The Biggest Loser was down 20 percent. And X Factor was beaten by Modern Family, prompting Family co-creator Steve Levitan to tweet, "It's extremely gratifying that a scripted comedy finally beat an overhyped karaoke contest."

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10 p.m. Dramas

While CBS' Hawaii Five-0 remains the time-slot leader on Monday, its Sept. 19 premiere was down 13 percent year-over-year and off 50 percent from its 2 Broke Girls lead-in. NBC's hyped The Playboy Club was off 30 percent compared with the bow of the canceled Chase. In fact, Playboy tied the 2008 drama Crusoe as NBC's lowest-rated fall premiere in the slot. Similarly, the Sept. 20 debut of ABC's Body of Proof was down 26 percent compared with its series premiere in March.

And the 10 p.m. Wednesday slot did CSI no favors as the relocated CBS drama's Sept. 21 premiere fell 9 percent year-over-year despite the debut of Ted Danson. CBS' The Mentalist was off 18 percent, and NBC's Prime Suspect, starring Maria Bello, marked NBC's lowest-rated Thursday fall series debut ever. Two exceptions at ABC: Castle grew double digits, and Revenge got a lift from Family to more than double the premiere of last season's The Whole Truth.

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NBC

The No. 4 network ended the first week down 10 percent in the 18-to-49 demo compared with last year -- before the shake-up of its entertainment division. Yes, NBC can blame the competition -- Kutcher on Men and double doses of Family, The Big Bang Theory and How I Met Your Mother -- and a lot of its schedule was in development before Bob Greenblatt took over. But if the first ratings are an indication, NBC's turnaround is very much a work in progress.

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