Netflix Seen Reaching 7 Million Subs in New Southern Europe Markets by 2020

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Netflix CEO Reed Hastings

Cowen analyst John Blackledge also expects the streaming video giant to reach about 9.5 million subs in Japan by the end of 2020.

Cowen analyst John Blackledge in a report on Tuesday estimated that Netflix would have more than 1 million subscribers in Italy, Spain and Portugal, where it will launch in October, by the end of 2015.

"We estimate Netflix exits ’15 with  about 1.04 million total subs in Italy, Portugal, and Spain, less than 3.7 percent penetration of total addressable broadband subs, 2 percent penetration of TV households and 7 percent penetration of addressable pay TV subs," he wrote in a report.

He also estimated that Netflix, led by CEO Reed Hastings, would end 2020 with roughly 7 million subs in the three Southern European markets. That would amount to 21 percent penetration of total addressable broadband subs, 15 percent penetration of TV homes and 46 percent penetration of addressable pay TV subs.

In comparison, Netflix ended the first quarter with 41.4 million U.S. subs, for penetration of around 44 percent of total addressable broadband subs, 35 percent of TV households and 41 percent of addressable pay TV subs.

"In addition to entering Italy, Portugal and Spain in October ’15, earlier this year Netflix announced plans to launch in Japan at some point this fall," Blackledge also emphasized. "We expect Netflix's Japan launch sometime in the fourth quarter and estimate Netflix exits ’15 with about 750,000 subs in Japan."

That would amount to 2 percent penetration of total addressable broadband subs, 1 percent penetration of TV homes in the country and 5 percent penetration of addressable pay TV subs, he said.

"Longer-term, we estimate about 9.5 million Netflix subs in Japan by the end of ’20," Blackledge wrote. That would mean 22 percent penetration of total addressable broadband subs, 17 percent of TV homes and 54 percent of addressable pay TV subs.

Twitter: @georgszalai


 

 

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