Report predicts three down years for ad biz

Forecasted to fall 12% this year and 7% in 2010

The advertising business in the U.S., for the first time ever, will fall for three years straight, if a forecast released Monday is correct.

According to the Jack Myers Media Business Report, media revenue generated through advertising declined 4.2% last year and will decline another 12% this year, then as much as 7% in 2010.

The figures are based on an overview of industry analysis, the latest data on fourth-quarter and first-quarter spending, GDP figures and a study of the top 100 advertisers conducted by Goldman Sachs.

Media company advertising domestically peaked at $234.7 billion in 2007, growing 3.6% over the year before. In 2010, it is projected to decline to $187.7 billion.

Leading categories on the downside are newspapers, local and regional spot cable TV and terrestrial radio.

Advertising categories that are still showing growth include video games, cinemas, satellite radio and most sectors of online ads, in particular video and social networks.
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