The Report: Yogi Bear Tracking Boo Boo

Warner Bros.

Family-film box office is tough to predict.

Is Warner Bros. smarter than the average studio for green-lighting Yogi Bear? Maybe, but good luck trying to forecast how well the film will perform at the box office when it opens Dec. 17. Family-film debuts are infamously tough to predict. That’s because while studios releasing kiddie pics pay extra for data that gauges must-see sentiment among families, executives at other studios see only general-population survey responses regarding rivals’ releases. “We have yet to find a foolproof way to track children,” says Chuck Viane, distribution head at Disney, which was pleasantly surprised when Tangled grossed $69 million during the five-day Thanksgiving weekend. Further complications: the impulsive nature of family moviegoers and the disconnect between the targets of promo campaigns — kids — and the parents buying tickets. An early read on Yogi, for instance, indicates a first-weekend picnic basket stuffed with $25 million or so, but some believe it will overperform similar to Fox’s live action/CG film Alvin and the Chipmunks in 2007. That movie opened well north of $40 million — far out-pacing prerelease tracking.           

FORECAST VS. ACTUAL

Despicable Me (July 9)
Consensus forecast: $33 mil
Opening weekend: $56.4 mil           
Difference: +$23.4 mil

The Karate Kid (June 11)           
Consensus forecast: $35 mil
Opening weekend: $55.7 mil
Difference: $22.7 mil

Tangled (Nov. 24)            
Consensus forecast: $30 mil           
Opening weekend: $49 mil
Difference: +$19 mil

Megamind (Nov. 5)           
Consensus forecast: $50 mil           
Opening weekend: $46 mil           
Difference: -$4 mil

Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore (July 30)
Consensus forecast: $17 mil
Opening weekend: $12.2 mil
Difference: -$4.8 mil

The Sorcerer’s Apprentice (July 14)           
Consensus forecast: $25 mil
Opening weekend: $17.6 mil           
Difference: -$7.4 mil

Domestic box office. Source: Boxofficemojo

 

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