What to Expect at Upfronts

Television executives are predicting double-digit increases in ad pricing at the annual upfront presentations, set to kick off May 16 in New York. But a few recent events are causing more than a little uncertainty. The devastation in Japan has taken a bite out of auto advertising, as Japanese carmakers curtail marketing. And the uncertainty surrounding the NFL, which accounts for billions in ad spending each season, is causing the most consternation. Do marketers put those fourth-quarter ad dollars somewhere else, or do they keep the money in reserve in the hope that players and owners reach a deal? Ultimately, of course, the upfront haul comes down to supply and demand. And the irony is that networks can command higher prices while their ratings are falling because marketers need the audience that TV delivers more than ever. "I don't think anybody's disputing increases," says one buyer. But the question is, how high can prices go when the economy is just beginning to recover?