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NOV
7
2 YEARS

FEINBERG FORECAST: 'Coriolanus,' 'J. Edgar,' 'Hugo,' 'Into the Abyss,' 'Lady' Move Post-AFI

THR's awards expert Scott Feinberg offers his latest take on the Oscar race.

Hugo Film Still Paramount - H 2011
Paramount

BEST PICTURE
Frontrunners
The Artist (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, TBA, trailer)
The Descendants (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, R, trailer)
War Horse (Disney, 12/25, PG-13, trailer)
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Warner Brothers, 12/25, TBA, trailer)
The Help (Disney, 8/12, PG-13, trailer)
Moneyball (Columbia, 9/23, TBA, trailer)
Midnight in Paris (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/20, PG-13, trailer)
J. Edgar (Warner Brothers, 11/11, R, trailer)
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (Sony, 12/21, TBA, trailer)
Shame (Fox Searchlight, 12/2, NC-17, trailer)

Major Threats
The Ides of March (Sony, 10/14, TBA, trailer)
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Focus Features, 12/9, TBA, trailer)
The Tree of Life (Fox Searchlight, 5/27, PG-13, trailer)
The Iron Lady (The Weinstein Company, 12/30, TBA, teaser)
The Adventures of Tintin (Paramount, 12/21, TBA, trailer)
Hugo (Paramount, 11/23, TBA, trailer)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows -- Part 2 (Warner Brothers, 7/15, PG-13, trailer)
Possibilities
50/50 (Summit, 9/30, R, trailer)
Drive (FilmDistrict, 9/16, R, trailer)
Young Adult (Paramount, 12/9, TBA, trailer)
My Week With Marilyn (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, R, trailer)
We Bought a Zoo (20th Century Fox, 12/23, TBA, trailer)
In the Land of Blood and Honey (FilmDistrict, 12/23, R, trailer)
Carnage (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/16, R, trailer)
Super 8 (Paramount, 6/10, PG-13, trailer)

BEST DIRECTOR
Frontrunners
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
Steven Spielberg (War Horse)
Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
Major Threats
Tate Taylor (The Help)
Bennett Miller (Moneyball)
Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar)
David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Steve McQueen (Shame)
George Clooney (The Ides of March)
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Tomas Alfredson (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Steven Spielberg (The Adventures of Tintin)
Possibilities
Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
Jason Reitman (Young Adult)
Roman Polanski (Carnage)
Nicolas Winding Refn (Drive)
Phyllida Lloyd (The Iron Lady)
Jonathan Levine (50/50)
Cameron Crowe (We Bought a Zoo)
Angelina Jolie (In the Land of Blood and Honey)
David Yates (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows -- Part 2)

BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)
Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
George Clooney (The Descendants)
Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Michael Fassbender (Shame)
Major Threats
Ryan Gosling (The Ides of March)
Ryan Gosling (Drive)
Woody Harrelson (Rampart)
Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Ralph Fiennes (Coriolanus)
Michael Shannon (Take Shelter)
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (50/50)
Daniel Craig (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Possibilities
Thomas Horn (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Paul Giamatti (Win Win)
Owen Wilson (Midnight in Paris)
Demian Bichir (A Better Life)
Jeremy Irvine (War Horse)
Michael Fassbender (A Dangerous Method)
Anton Yelchin (Like Crazy)
Matt Damon (We Bought a Zoo)

BEST ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Viola Davis (The Help)
Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Major Threats
Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method)
Charlize Theron (Young Adult)
Michelle Yeoh (The Lady)
Felicity Jones (Like Crazy)
Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
Possibilities
Mia Wasikowska (Jane Eyre)
Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia)
Rachel Weisz (The Whistleblower)
Adepero Oduye (Pariah)
Vera Farmiga (Higher Ground)
Ellen Barkin (Another Happy Day)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Frontrunners
Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Armie Hammer (J. Edgar)
Jim Broadbent (The Iron Lady)
Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)
Major Threats
John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
Tom Hanks (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Albert Brooks (Drive)
Jonah Hill (Moneyball)
Patton Oswalt (Young Adult)
Brad Pitt (The Tree of Life)
Possibilities
Christoph Waltz (Carnage)
John C. Reilly (Carnage)
Nick Nolte (Warrior)
George Clooney (The Ides of March)
Jeffrey Wright (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method)
Andy Serkis (Rise of the Planet of the Apes)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Berenice Bejo (The Artist)
Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
Jessica Chastain (The Help)
Carey Mulligan (Shame)
Major Threats
Evan Rachel Wood (The Ides of March)
Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)
Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Judy Greer (The Descendants)
Marion Cotillard (Midnight in Paris)
Emily Watson (War Horse)
Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)
Possibilities
Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life)
Judi Dench (J. Edgar)
Naomi Watts (J. Edgar)
Jodie Foster (Carnage)
Kate Winslet (Carnage)
Scarlett Johansson (We Bought a Zoo)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash (The Descendants)
Richard Curtis, Lee Hall (War Horse)
Eric Roth (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)

Tate Taylor (The Help)
Stan Chervin, Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian (Moneyball)
Major Threats
Steven Zaillian (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
George Clooney, Grant Heslov (The Ides of March)
Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Roman Polanski (Carnage)
Hossein Amini (Drive)
Possibilities
Pedro Almodovar (The Skin I Live In)
Christopher Hampton (A Dangerous Method)
Cameron Crowe, Aline Brosh McKenna (We Bought a Zoo)
James Ellroy, Oren Moverman (Rampart)
John Logan (Coriolanus)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
Dustin Lance Black (J. Edgar)
Abi Morgan, Steve McQueen (Shame)
Sean Durkin (Martha Marcy Mae Marlene)

Major Threats
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Will Reiser (50/50)
Abi Morgan (The Iron Lady)
Diablo Cody (Young Adult)
Tom McCarthy, Joe Tiboni (Win Win)
Mike Mills (Beginners)
James Ward Byrkit, John Logan, Gore Verbinski (Rango)
Possibilities
Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig (Bridesmaids)
Asghar Farhadi (A Separation)
Drake Doremus, Ben York Jones (Like Crazy)
Jeff Nichols (Take Shelter)
Rebecca Frayn (The Lady)
Adrian Hodges (My Week with Marilyn)
J.J. Abrams (Super 8)
Dee Rees (Pariah)

BEST ANIMATED FILM (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
The Adventures of Tintin (Paramount, 12/21, TBA, trailer)
Rango (Paramount, 3/4, PG, trailer)
Happy Feet 2 (Warner Brothers, 11/18, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Cars 2 (Disney, 6/24, TBA, trailer)
Arthur Christmas (Sony, 11/23, TBA, trailer)

Major Threats
Puss in Boots (DreamWorks, 11/4, TBA, trailer)
Rio (20th Century Fox, 4/15, G, trailer)
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked (20th Century Fox, 12/11, TBA, TBA)
Winnie the Pooh (Disney, 7/15, G, trailer)
Possibilities
Kung Fu Panda 2 (DreamWorks, 5/26, PG, trailer)
The Smurfs (Sony, 7/29, TBA, trailer)
The Lion of Judah (Animated Family Films, 6/3, TBA, trailer)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
The Interrupters (The Cinema Guild, 7/29, TBA, trailer)
Project Nim (Roadside Attractions, 7/8, PG-13, trailer)
Senna (Producers Distribution Agency, 8/12, PG-13, trailer)
Buck (IFC Films, 6/17, PG, trailer)
Into the Abyss (Sundance Selects, 11/11, TBA, TBA)
Major Threats
If a Tree Falls (Oscilloscope, 6/22, TBA, trailer)
Being Elmo: A Puppeteer's Journey (Submarine Deluxe, TBA, trailer)
Better This World (Bullfrog Films, 8/26, TBA, trailer)
Koran by Heart (HBO Documentary Films, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Bill Cunningham New York (Zeitgeist Films, 3/16, TBA, trailer)
Hell and Back Again (Docurama Films, 10/5, TBA, trailer)
The Island President (Samuel Goldwyn Films, 11/8, TBA, trailer) NEW
Page One: Inside the New York Times (Magnolia, 6/24, TBA, trailer)
Tabloid (Sundance Selects, 7/15, R, trailer)
We Were Here (Red Flag Releasing, 9/?, TBA, trailer)
Corman's World: Exploits of a Hollywood Rebel (Anchor Bay Films, 10/16, TBA, trailer)
Possibilities
Magic Trip (Magnolia, 8/5, TBA, trailer)
The Rescuers (Menemsha Films, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Black Power Mixtape 1967-1975 (Sundance Selects, 9/9, TBA, trailer)
Hot Coffee (HBO Documentaries, 6/27, TBA, trailer)
Pearl Jam Twenty (Abramorama, 9/20, R, trailer)
Bobby Fischer Against the World (HBO Documentary Films, TBA, TBA, TBA)
The Whale (Paladin, TBA, TBA, TBA)
The Bully Project (The Weinstein Company, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Revenge of the Electric Car (Westmidwest Productions, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Greatest Movie Ever Sold (Sony Pictures Classics, 4/22, PG-13, trailer)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Bombay Beach
The Carrier
Footnote
Semper Fi: Always Faithful
(trailer)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Frontrunners
A Separation (Iran)
Where Do We Go Now? (Lebanon)
Le Havre (Finland)
A Simple Life (Hong Kong)
In Darkness (Poland)
Major Threats
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
Declaration of War (France)
Footnote (Israel)
Happy, Happy (Norway)
Pina (Germany)
Terra Firma (Italy)
Sonny Boy (Netherlands)
Superclasico (Denmark)
Possibilities
The Flowers of War (China)
Black Bread (Spain)
Postcard (Japan)
Omar Killed Me (Morocco)
The Turin Horse (Hungary)
Once Upon a Time in Anatolia (Turkey)
Montevideo: Taste of a Dream (Serbia)
Morgen (Romania)