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OCT
28
2 YEARS

FEINBERG FORECAST: Updated Projections (With 17 Weeks Until the Oscars)

With Hurricane Sandy about to strike the East Coast and the 26th AFI Fest about to get underway out west, THR's awards analyst offers his latest take on the race.

Daniel Craig

Every Sunday through the Oscars on Feb. 24, The Hollywood Reporter's awards analyst Scott Feinberg will release a new "Feinberg Forecast," a post in which he recaps the most noteworthy awards-related news of the past week and shares his latest assessment of the standings in each of the major awards categories. (For more information about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, see the bottom of this post.)

NOTEWORTHY DEVELOPMENTS SINCE LAST WEEK'S FORECAST:

  • It was a strange weekend at the domestic box office as Warner Bros.' Argo, in its third weekend, claimed the top spot for the first time (no film has done that since The Blind Side two years ago), and Sony Pictures Animation's Hotel Transylvania, in its fifth weekend, finished second. Meanwhile, Warner Bros.' big new release, Cloud Atlas, which cost $100 million to make -- most of which was independently raised -- grossed a disappointing $9.4 million, although it did have highest per-screen average of any title in the top 10.
  • The International Documentary Association announced the nominees for the 28th annual IDA Documentary Awards, which will be presented Dec. 7 and which are billed as "the world's most prestigious awards for nonfiction filmmaking." The five feature documentary nominees are Ken Burns, Sarah Burns and David McMahon's The Central Park Five; Kirby Dick's The Invisble War; Lauren Greenfield's Queen of Versailles; Malik Bendejelloul's Searching for Sugar Man; and Peter Gerdehag's Women with Cows.
  • Time magazine hosted a special screening of Lincoln in New York on Thursday night, after which managing editor Richard Stengel moderated a Q&A with three of the film's Oscar hopefuls: director Steven Spielberg, actor Daniel-Day Lewis and screenwriter Tony Kushner. Among the other notables in attendance: TV talk show hosts Bill O'Reilly and Oprah Winfrey. (During the Q&A, O'Reilly predicted: "You'll win best picture. Lewis will win best actor, Spielberg will win best director, [Tommy Lee] Jones will win best supporting, Kushner will win best screenplay.") The magazine subsequently released an issue with Day-Lewis' face on the cover behind the headline: "The World's Greatest Actor."
  • The Museum of the Moving Image on Sunday began a multi-day retrospective of the work of best director Oscar hopeful Robert Zemeckis (Flight), who previously won the best director Oscar for Forrest Gump (1994) and also directed other classics including Back to the Future (1985) and Cast Away (2000).
  • The Savannah Film Festival, the 15th edition of which is now underway, announced that best supporting actor Oscar hopeful John Goodman (Argo and Flight) will receive its Outstanding Achievement in Cinema -- Supporting Actor of the Year Award.
  • The Hollywood Reporter has learned that Erik Canuel's long-gestating Barrymore, which stars Oscar winner Christopher Plummer as the legendary thespian John Barrymore, will be theatrically released by BY Experience and Image Entertainment in New York and Los Angeles on Thursday, Nov. 15. Less than a year ago, Plummer became the oldest actor to ever win an Oscar when he was voted best supporting actor for Beginners. For this performance, he will contend in the best actor race.

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST:

BEST PICTURE
Front-runners
Argo (Warner Bros., 10/12, R, trailer)
Les Miserables (Universal, 12/25, TBA, trailer)
Lincoln (DreamWorks, 11/9, TBA, trailer)
Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Co., 11/21, TBA, trailer)
Zero Dark Thirty (Sony, 12/19, TBA, teaser)
The Master (The Weinstein Co., 9/14, R, trailer)
Hitchcock (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, TBA, trailer)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight, 6/27, PG-13, trailer)
Django Unchained (The Weinstein Co., 12/25, R, trailer)
Promised Land (Focus Features, 12/28, R, trailer)
Major Threats
Life of Pi (20th Century Fox, 11/21, TBA, trailer)
The Impossible (Summit, 12/21, PG-13, trailer)
Flight (Paramount, 11/2, TBA, trailer)
Amour (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/19, TBA, trailer)
The Sessions (Fox Searchlight, 10/19, TBA, trailer)
The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Bros., 7/20, PG-13, trailer)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros., 12/14, TBA, trailer)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight, 5/4, PG-13, trailer)
Moonrise Kingdom (Focus Features, 5/25, PG-13, trailer)
Possibilities
Skyfall (Sony, 11/9, PG-13, trailer) NEW
Cloud Atlas (Warner Bros., 10/26, R, trailer)
Anna Karenina (Focus Features, 11/16, TBA, trailer)
End of Watch (Open Road Films, 9/21, R, trailer)
Arbitrage (Roadside Attractions, 9/14, R, trailer)
Rust and Bone (Sony Pictures Classics, 11/23, TBA, trailer)
On the Road (Sundance Selects/IFC Films, 12/21, R, trailer)
Hyde Park on Hudson (Focus Features, 12/7, R, trailer)
The Avengers (Disney, 5/4, PG-13, trailer)
The Hunger Games (Lionsgate, 3/23, PG-13, trailer)

BEST DIRECTOR
Front-runners
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
Major Threats
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
Michael Haneke (Amour)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Gus Vant Sant (The Promised Land)
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight Rises)
Sacha Gervasi (Hitchcock)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Peter Jackson (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski (Cloud Atlas)
Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom)
Possibilities
Sam Mendes (Skyfall) NEW
Robert Zemeckis (Flight)
Joe Wright (Anna Karenina)
Juan Antonio Bayona (The Impossible)
Ben Lewin (The Sessions)
David Ayer (End of Watch)
Jacques Audiard (Rust and Bone)
John Madden (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)

Nicholas Jarecki (Arbitrage)
Walter Salles (On the Road)
Roger Michell (Hyde Park on Hudson)

BEST ACTOR
Front-runners
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Denzel Washington (Flight)
John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock)
Major Threats
Richard Gere (Arbitrage)
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Jean-Louis Trintignant (Amour)
Jamie Foxx (Django Unchained)
Matt Damon (Promised Land)
Jack Black (Bernie)
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Jake Gyllenhaal (End of Watch)
Tom Hanks (Cloud Atlas)
Possibilities
Christopher Plummer (Barrymore) NEW
Liam Neeson (The Grey)
Tommy Lee Jones (Hope Springs)
Tom Holland (The Impossible)
Suraj Sharma (Life of Pi)
Omar Sy (The Intouchables)
Gael Garcia Bernal (No)
Matthias Schoenaerts (Rust and Bone)
Clint Eastwood (Trouble With the Curve)
Alan Cumming (Any Day Now)
Frank Langella (Robot & Frank)

BEST ACTRESS
Front-runners
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Major Threats
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina)
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Elle Fanning (Ginger & Rosa)
Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Smashed)

Maggie Smith (Quartet)
Frances McDormand (Promised Land)
Meryl Streep (Hope Springs)
Judi Dench (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Barbra Streisand (The Guilt Trip)

Possibilities
Halle Berry (Cloud Atlas)
Leslie Mann (This Is 40)
Amy Adams (Trouble With the Curve)
Laura Linney (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea)
Melissa Leo (Francine)
Michelle Williams (Take This Waltz)
Julianne Moore (What Maisie Knew)
Anne Hathaway (The Dark Knight Rises)
Jennifer Lawrence (The Hunger Games)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Front-runners
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

Alan Arkin (Argo)
John Goodman (Argo)

Major Threats
Bryan Cranston (Argo)
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Hal Holbrook (Promised Land)
Michael Pena (End of Watch)
Dwight Henry (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Russell Crowe (Les Miserables)

John Goodman (Flight)
Ewan McGregor (The Impossible)
Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike)

Possibilities
Irrfan Khan (Life of Pi)
William H. Macy (The Sessions)

Jason Clarke (Zero Dark Thirty)
David Strathairn (Lincoln)
Andy Serkis (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Ian McKellen (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Jude Law (Anna Karenina)

Chris Tucker (Silver Linings Playbook)
Josh Brolin (Men in Black 3)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Front-runners
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Amy Adams (The Master)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Samantha Barks (Les Miserables)
Major Threats
Ann Dowd (Compliance)
Kerry Washington (Django Unchained)
Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Kelly Reilly (Flight)
Susan Sarandon (Arbitrage)
Emily Blunt (Looper)
Possibilities
Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)
Christina Hendricks (Ginger & Rosa)

Jennifer Ehle (Zero Dark Thirty)
Emma Watson (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)
Kristen Stewart (On the Road)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
Argo (Chris Terrio)
Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)
Les Miserables (William Nicholson)
Major Threats
Hitchcock (John McLaughlin)
Life of Pi (David Magee)
The Sessions (Ben Lewin)
The Intouchables (Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano)
Cloud Atlas (Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski)
The Dark Knight Rises (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Philippa Boyens, Guillermo Del Toro, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh)
Possibilities
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Ol Parker)
Quartet (Ronald Harwood)
Anna Karenina (Tom Stoppard)

Rust and Bone (Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain)
Rise of the Guardians (David Lindsay-Abaire)
On the Road (Jose Rivera)
The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Stephen Chbosky)

The Grey (Joe Carnahan, Ian Mackenzie Jeffers)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)
Amour (Michael Haneke)
Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson)
Major Threats
Promised Land (Matt Damon, John Krasinski)
Arbitrage (Nicholas Jarecki)
The Impossible (Sergio G. Sanchez)
Looper (Rian Johnson)
Seven Psychopaths (Martin McDonagh)
Flight (John Gatins)
End of Watch (David Ayer)
Middle of Nowhere (Ava DuVernay) NEW
Possibilities
Brave (Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman)
Ginger & Rosa (Sally Potter)
To Rome With Love (Woody Allen)
The Guilt Trip (Dan Fogelman)
Hyde Park on Hudson (Richard Nelson)
Ted (Seth MacFarlane, Alec Sulkin, Wellesley Wild)
Not Fade Away (David Chase)
Ruby Sparks (Zoe Kazan)
Celeste and Jesse Forever (Rashida Jones, Will McCormack)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Front-runners
Brave (Pixar, 6/22, PG, trailer)
Rise of the Guardians (DreamWorks Animation, 11/21, TBA, trailer)

Wreck-It Ralph (Disney, 11/2, TBA, trailer)
Frankenweenie (Disney, 10/5, TBA, trailer)
ParaNorman (Focus Features, 8/17, PG, trailer)
Major Threats
Zarafa (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Le Tableau (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Pirates! Band of Misfits (Sony Animation, 4/27, PG, trailer)
Possibilities
Hotel Transylvania (Sony Animation, 9/28, TBA, trailer)
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (DreamWorks Animation, 6/8, PG, trailer)
From Up on Poppy Hill (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Rabbi's Cat (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Front-runners
The Gatekeepers (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, clip)
Searching for Sugar Man (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/27, PG-13, trailer)

Detropia (Loki Films, 9/7, TBA, trailer)
Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry (Sundance Selects, 7/27, R, trailer)
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Major Threats
West of Memphis (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/25, TBA, trailer)
Central Park Five (Sundance Selects, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Invisible War (Docurama, 6/22, NR, trailer)
The House I Live In (Charlotte Street Films, 10/5, NR, trailer)
Escape Fire: The Fight to Rescue American Healthcare (Roadside Attractions, 10/5, TBA, trailer)
How to Survive a Plague (Sundance Selects, 9/21, TBA, trailer)
The Imposter (Indomina, 7/13, R, trailer)
Head Games (Variance Films, 9/21, PG-13, trailer)
No Place on Earth (Magnolia, TBA, TBA, TBA)
The Queen of Versailles (Magnolia, 7/20, PG, trailer)
Samsara (Oscilloscope, 8/24, PG-13, trailer) NEW
Possibilities
Paul Williams: Still Alive (Abramorama, 6/8, NR, trailer) NEW
The Waiting Room (International Film Circuit, 9/26, TBA, trailer)
Ethel (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Marley (Magnolia, 4/20, PG-13, trailer)
First Position (Sundance Selects, 5/4, NR, trailer)
Brooklyn Castle (Producers Distribution Agency, 10/19, TBA, trailer)
The Zen of Bennett (Abramorama, 10/24, TBA, trailer)

Scenes of a Crime (New Box Productions, 3/30, NR, trailer)
Love, Marilyn (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Chasing Ice (Submarine Entertainment, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Neil Young Journeys (Sony Pictures Classics, 6/29, PG, trailer)
Bully (The Weinstein Co., 3/30, PG-13, trailer)
Side by Side (Tribeca Films, 8/31, TBA, trailer)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
Front-runners
Austria -- Amour
France -- The Intouchables
Denmark -- A Royal Affair
Switzerland -- Sister

Israel -- Fill the Void
Major Threats
Romania -- Beyond the Hills
South Korea -- Pieta
Germany -- Barbara
Australia -- Lore
Canada -- War Witch
Chile -- No
Philippines -- Bwakaw
Netherlands -- Kauwboy
Japan -- Our Homeland
Bosnia and Herzegovina -- Children of Sarajevo

Possibilities
Hungary -- Just the Wind
Bulgaria -- Sneakers
Greece -- Unfair World
Portugal -- Blood of My Blood
Serbia -- When Day Breaks
Belgium -- Our Children
Morocco -- Death for Sale
Norway -- Kon-Tiki
Sweden -- The Hypnotist
Mexico -- After Lucia
Iceland -- The Deep
Czech Republic -- In the Shadow

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Front-runners
The Master
Django Unchained

Lincoln
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Major Threats
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
Skyfall NEW
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
The Dark Knight Rises

Anna Karenina
Possibilities
Samsara
Hitchcock
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Argo
The Hunger Games
Sister

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Front-runners
Anna Karenina
Snow White and the Huntsman

Les Miserables
Django Unchained
Lincoln

Major Threats
Argo
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
Moonrise Kingdom

Possibilities
Life of Pi
Hitchcock
The Hunger Games
The Avengers
Mirror Mirror

BEST FILM EDITING
Front-runners
Zero Dark Thirty
The Master

Lincoln
Django Unchained
Argo

Major Threats
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
The Dark Knight Rises
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
The Bourne Legacy
Possibilities
Flight
Hitchcock
Moonrise Kingdom
The Avengers

The Hunger Games
The Impossible

End of Watch
Samsara

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Front-runners
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln

Major Threats
The Master
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
Anna Karenina
Hitchcock

Possibilities
Men in Black 3
The Impossible
The Hunger Games
Hyde Park on Hudson

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Front-runners
The Master (Johnny Greenwood)
Zero Dark Thirty (Alexandre Desplat)

Argo (Alexandre Desplat)
Lincoln (John Williams)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Dan Romer, Benh Zeitlin)
Major Threats
The Dark Knight Rises (Hans Zimmer)
Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Howard Shore)
Moonrise Kingdom (Alexandre Desplat)
Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli)
Django Unchained (Mary Ramos)

Hitchcock (Danny Elfman)
Rise of the Guardians (Alexandre Desplat)
Possibilities
On the Road (Gustavo Santaolalla)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Thomas Newman)
Rust and Bone (Alexandre Desplat)
The Hunger Games (James Newton Howard)
The Impossible (Fernando Velazquez)
Cloud Atlas (Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek, Tom Tykwer)
Flight (Alan Silvestri)
Samsara (Marcello De Francisci, Lisa Gerrard, Michael Stearns)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Front-runners
Les Miserables
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained

Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Major Threats
Cloud Atlas
The Master
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Dark Knight Rises
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Argo
Moonrise Kingdom

Possibilities
Life of Pi
The Impossible
Snow White and the Huntsman
Flight
The Avengers
The Hunger Games
Skyfall

BEST SOUND EDITING
Front-runners
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises

The Avengers
Zero Dark Thirty

Lincoln
Major Threats
Skyfall
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
The Master
Argo
Flight

Possibilities
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games

BEST SOUND MIXING
Front-runners
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Les Miserables

Lincoln
Major Threats
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
The Master
Argo
Flight

Possibilities
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Front-runners
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
Life of Pi

The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Major Threats
Skyfall
The Amazing Spider-Man
Flight

Possibilities
The Bourne Legacy

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Front-runners
The Education of Mohammad Hussein (Loki Films)
Open Heart (Urban Landscapes Inc.)
Kings Point (Kings Point Documentary, Inc.)
Mondays at Racine (Cynthia Wade Productions)
Inocente (Shine Global, Inc.)
Major Threats
Paraiso (The Strangebird Company)
The Perfect Fit (SDI Productions Ltd.)
Redemption (Downtown Docs)

* * *

ABOUT SCOTT FEINBERG AND THE "FEINBERG FORECAST"

Scott Feinberg is one of the film industry's most trusted awards analysts and has one of the world's best track records at forecasting the Oscars, something that he has been doing since 2001. His best showings came in 2006 (when he correctly called 21 of 24 winners) and 2004 (when he correctly called 20 of 24 winners). He was the only pundit to project long-shot best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011).

Scott factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings at festivals or elsewhere), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated with the Academy), precursor awards (some awards groups have better track records than others of correlating with the Academy) and regular conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters).