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OCT
21
2 YEARS

FEINBERG FORECAST: Updated Projections (With 18 Weeks Until the Oscars)

As the awards race moves westward for the Hollywood Film Awards and the AFI Fest, THR's awards analyst offers his latest assessment of the race.

The Master - Joaquin Phoenix - H 2012
Courtest of The Weinstein Co.
Joaquin Phoenix in "The Master"

Every Sunday through the Oscars on Feb. 24, The Hollywood Reporter's awards analyst Scott Feinberg will release a new "Feinberg Forecast," a post in which he recaps the most noteworthy awards-related news of the past week and shares his latest assessment of the standings in each of the major awards categories. (For more information about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, see the bottom of this post.)

NOTEWORTHY DEVELOPMENTS SINCE LAST WEEK'S FORECAST:

  • Ben Affleck's Argo continued to do impressive box office in its second weekend, grossing $16.6 million, good enough for second place behind Paranormal Activity 4, and falling only 15 percent from last weekend for a domestic cume of $43.2 million, the slimmest decline on record for a non-holiday live-action film.
  • Joaquin Phoenix, a best actor Oscar hopeful (The Master), told Elvis Mitchell of Interview magazine that the awards season is "total, utter bullshit," and added, "I don't want to be a part of it." He has, nevertheless, shown up at screenings of the film in Venice and Toronto and granted a select number of promotional interviews, almost certainly at the insistence of the distributor of his film, Harvey Weinstein, who is widely regarded as the master of Oscar campaigning. It remains to be seen whether these remarks will hurt or help Phoenix's campaign: In recent years, Mo'Nique (Precious) and Christian Bale (The Fighter) took similar positions and still prevailed in their respective Oscar races.
  • The IFP announced the nominees for 22nd Gotham Independent Film Awards, which will take place Nov. 26 in New York. Beasts of the Southern Wild, Bernie, The Master, Middle of Nowhere and Moonrise Kingdom led the field with two nominations each. Bernie and Moonrise Kingdom followed in the footsteps of The Hurt Locker (2008), Winter's Bone (2009) and The Descendants (2011) -- three films that went on to score best picture, best director, best lead performance and best screenplay Oscar noms -- by nabbing Gotham noms for best feature and best ensemble. But it may be foolhardy to read too much into Oscar implications of the Gothams.
  • The AFI Fest announced that its 26th edition, which will run from Nov. 1-8 in Los Angeles, will feature screenings of 12 best foreign language Oscar submissions, split between its World Cinema and Young Auteurs slates: Austria (Amour), Belgium (Our Children), Canada (War Witch), Denmark (A Royal Affair), Germany (Barbara), Italy (Caesar Must Die), Norway (Kon-Tiki), Portugal (Blood of My Blood), Romania (Beyond the Hills) and South Korea (the U.S. premiere of Venice winner Pieta).
  • The Santa Barbara International Film Festival announced that its seventh annual Kirk Douglas Award for Excellence in Film will be presented by Douglas to best supporting actor Oscar hopeful Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook) at a black-tie gala dinner in Santa Barbara on Dec. 8.
  • CBS' 60 Minutes devoted a segment on Sunday night to the life and career of best director Oscar hopeful Steven Spielberg (Lincoln).
  • The European Film Awards announced that its 25th edition, which will take place on Dec. 1 in Malta, will feature five nominees for the European Discovery 2012 -- Prix FIPRESCI award, which is presented annually to a young, up-and-coming director for his or her first feature film. One of this year's nominees is Kauwboy, the best foreign language film Oscar submission from the Netherlands.
  • The Stockholm International Film Festival will present this year’s Stockholm Visionary Award to best director Oscar hopeful Jacques Audiard (Rust and Bone) on Nov. 12. Previous recipients include Todd Solondz (2004), Terry Gilliam (2005), Darren Aronofsky (2006), Wes Anderson (2007), Wong Kar Wai (2008), Luc Besson (2009), Gus Van Sant (2010) and Alejandro González Inarritu (2011).
  • Rust and Bone was chosen by a jury over 11 other competition titles as the best film at the 56th BFI London Film Festival. It was the first time that the fest has given out that prize. Alex Gibney's Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God, was awarded the best documentary prize.
  • British singing sensation Adele croons the title song in the new Bond film Skyfall, but her sampling in it of the original Dr. No (1962) theme song, with which 007 has long been associated, might violate Academy rule 15, section 1b, and prevent it from becoming the fourth song from a Bond film to score a best original song Oscar nomination.
  • Austrian filmmaker Michael Haneke, a best director and best foreign language film Oscar hopeful (Amour) who often makes films in the French language, and his longtime producer Margaret Menegov, a best picture Oscar hopeful (Amour) have been awarded France's highest honor, the Legion of Honor, by French president Francois Hollande, who said he hoped to “honor a producer and a director committed to the defense of independent cinema, which France tirelessly supports and promotes around the world."
  • The New York Film Critics Circle has announced that the vote for its 78th annual awards will take place Dec. 3, and its awards ceremony will take place Jan. 7. The NYFCC is the oldest film critics group in the country.
  • THR has learned that Amy Adams' performance in Trouble with the Curve will be campaigned for by Warner Bros. in the best actress -- not the best supporting actress -- Oscar category. This makes sense, considering that Adams possesses a far better shot at scoring a nom for The Master, for which she is being pushed in the latter race, and having her two acclaimed performances competing for votes against one another could only undermine her prospects for both.

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST:

BEST PICTURE
Front-runners
Argo (Warner Bros., 10/12, R, trailer)
Les Miserables (Universal, 12/25, TBA, trailer)
Lincoln (DreamWorks, 11/9, TBA, trailer)
Zero Dark Thirty (Sony, 12/19, TBA, teaser)
Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Co., 11/21, TBA, trailer)
The Master (The Weinstein Co., 9/14, R, trailer)
Hitchcock (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, TBA, trailer)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight, 6/27, PG-13, trailer)
Django Unchained (The Weinstein Co., 12/25, R, trailer)
Promised Land (Focus Features, 12/28, R, trailer)
Major Threats
Life of Pi (20th Century Fox, 11/21, TBA, trailer)
The Impossible (Summit, 12/21, PG-13, trailer)
Amour (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/19, TBA, trailer)
Cloud Atlas (Warner Bros., 10/26, R, trailer)
The Sessions (Fox Searchlight, 10/19, TBA, trailer)
Flight (Paramount, 11/2, TBA, trailer)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros., 12/14, TBA, trailer)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight, 5/4, PG-13, trailer)
The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Bros., 7/20, PG-13, trailer)
Moonrise Kingdom (Focus Features, 5/25, PG-13, trailer)
Possibilities
Anna Karenina (Focus Features, 11/16, TBA, trailer)
End of Watch (Open Road Films, 9/21, R, trailer)
Arbitrage (Roadside Attractions, 9/14, R, trailer)
Rust and Bone (Sony Pictures Classics, 11/23, TBA, trailer)
The Avengers (Disney, 5/4, PG-13, trailer)
The Hunger Games (Lionsgate, 3/23, PG-13, trailer)
On the Road (Sundance Selects/IFC Films, 12/21, R, trailer)
Hyde Park on Hudson (Focus Features, 12/7, R, trailer)
The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Summit, 9/14, TBA, trailer)
Trouble With the Curve (Warner Bros., 9/21, PG-13, trailer)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
The Sapphires (The Weinstein Co., TBA, TBA, trailer)

BEST DIRECTOR
Front-runners
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Major Threats
Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
Michael Haneke (Amour)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Gus Vant Sant (The Promised Land)
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
Peter Jackson (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight Rises)
Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski (Cloud Atlas)
Sacha Gervasi (Hitchcock)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom)
Possibilities
Robert Zemeckis (Flight)
Joe Wright (Anna Karenina)
Juan Antonio Bayona (The Impossible)
Ben Lewin (The Sessions)
David Ayer (End of Watch)
Jacques Audiard (Rust and Bone)
John Madden (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Nicholas Jarecki (Arbitrage)

Walter Salles (On the Road)
Roger Michell (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Wayne Blair (The Sapphires)

BEST ACTOR
Front-runners
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Denzel Washington (Flight)
John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock)
Major Threats
Richard Gere (Arbitrage)
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Jean-Louis Trintignant (Amour)
Jamie Foxx (Django Unchained)
Matt Damon (Promised Land)
Jack Black (Bernie)
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Tom Hanks (Cloud Atlas)
Jake Gyllenhaal (End of Watch)
Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Possibilities
Liam Neeson (The Grey)
Tom Holland (The Impossible)
Suraj Sharma (Life of Pi)
Omar Sy (The Intouchables)
Gael Garcia Bernal (No)
Matthias Schoenaerts (Rust and Bone)
Tommy Lee Jones (Hope Springs)
Clint Eastwood (Trouble With the Curve)
Alan Cumming (Any Day Now)
Frank Langella (Robot & Frank)
Terence Stamp (Song for Marion)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Michael Shannon (The Iceman)

BEST ACTRESS
Front-runners
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Major Threats
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina)
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Elle Fanning (Ginger & Rosa)
Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Smashed)

Maggie Smith (Quartet)
Frances McDormand (Promised Land)
Meryl Streep (Hope Springs)
Judi Dench (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Barbra Streisand (The Guilt Trip)
Halle Berry (Cloud Atlas)

Possibilities
Amy Adams (Trouble With the Curve) NEW
Laura Linney (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Michelle Williams (Take This Waltz)
Leslie Mann (This Is 40)
Julianne Moore (What Maisie Knew)
Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea)
Melissa Leo (Francine)
Jennifer Lawrence (The Hunger Games)
Rashida Jones (Celeste and Jesse Forever)
Zoe Kazan (Ruby Sparks)
Toni Collette (Jesus Henry Christ)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Front-runners
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

Alan Arkin (Argo)
John Goodman (Argo)

Major Threats
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Hal Holbrook (Promised Land)
Michael Pena (End of Watch)
Dwight Henry (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Bryan Cranston (Argo)
Russell Crowe (Les Miserables)

John Goodman (Flight)
Ewan McGregor (The Impossible)
Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike)

Irrfan Khan (Life of Pi)
William H. Macy (The Sessions)

Possibilities
Jason Clarke (Zero Dark Thirty) NEW
David Strathairn (Lincoln)
Andy Serkis (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Ian McKellen (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Jude Law (Anna Karenina)
James Gandolfini (Not Fade Away)
Brad Pitt (Killing Them Softly)
Tom Courtenay (Quartet)
Billy Connolly (Quartet)

Chris Tucker (Silver Linings Playbook)
Josh Brolin (Men in Black 3)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Chris O'Dowd (The Sapphires)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Front-runners
Amy Adams (The Master)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Samantha Barks (Les Miserables)
Major Threats
Kelly Reilly (Flight)
Kerry Washington (Django Unchained)
Ann Dowd (Compliance)
Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Emily Blunt (Looper)

Susan Sarandon (Arbitrage)
Possibilities
Jennifer Ehle (Zero Dark Thirty) NEW
Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)
Christina Hendricks (Ginger & Rosa)
Emma Watson (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)
Kristen Stewart (On the Road)
Vanessa Redgrave (Song for Marion)
Pauline Collins (Quartet)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
Argo (Chris Terrio)
Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)
Les Miserables (William Nicholson)
Major Threats
Hitchcock (John McLaughlin)
Life of Pi (David Magee)
The Sessions (Ben Lewin)
The Intouchables (Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano)
Cloud Atlas (Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski)
The Dark Knight Rises (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Philippa Boyens, Guillermo Del Toro, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh)
Possibilities
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Ol Parker)
Quartet (Ronald Harwood)
Anna Karenina (Tom Stoppard)
Rust and Bone (Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain)
On the Road (Jose Rivera)
The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Stephen Chbosky)
Rise of the Guardians (William Joyce)
The Grey (Joe Carnahan, Ian Mackenzie Jeffers)
NEW

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)
Amour (Michael Haneke)
Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson)
Major Threats
Promised Land (Matt Damon, John Krasinski)
End of Watch (David Ayer)
Looper (Rian Johnson)
Seven Psychopaths (Martin McDonagh)
Flight (John Gatins)
Arbitrage (Nicholas Jarecki)

The Impossible (Sergio G. Sanchez)
Brave (Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman)
Possibilities
Ginger & Rosa (Sally Potter)
Hyde Park on Hudson (Richard Nelson)
To Rome With Love (Woody Allen)
The Guilt Trip (Dan Fogelman)
Stand Up Guys (Noah Haidle)
Not Fade Away (David Chase)
Ted (Seth MacFarlane, Alec Sulkin, Wellesley Wild)
Ruby Sparks (Zoe Kazan)
Celeste and Jesse Forever (Rashida Jones, Will McCormack)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
The Sapphires (Tony Briggs, Keith Thompson)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Front-runners
Brave (Pixar, 6/22, PG, trailer)
Rise of the Guardians (DreamWorks Animation, 11/21, TBA, trailer)

Wreck-It Ralph (Disney, 11/2, TBA, trailer)
Frankenweenie (Disney, 10/5, TBA, trailer)
ParaNorman (Focus Features, 8/17, PG, trailer)
Major Threats
Zarafa (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Le Tableau (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Pirates! Band of Misfits (Sony Animation, 4/27, PG, trailer)
Possibilities
From Up on Poppy Hill (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Rabbi's Cat (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Hotel Transylvania (Sony Animation, 9/28, TBA, trailer)
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (DreamWorks Animation, 6/8, PG, trailer)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Front-runners
The Gatekeepers (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, clip)
Searching for Sugar Man (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/27, PG-13, trailer)

Detropia (Loki Films, 9/7, TBA, trailer)
Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry (Sundance Selects, 7/27, R, trailer)
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Major Threats
West of Memphis (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/25, TBA, trailer)
The Waiting Room (International Film Circuit, 9/26, trailer)
Central Park Five (Sundance Selects, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The House I Live In (Charlotte Street Films, 10/5, NR, trailer)

Escape Fire: The Fight to Rescue American Healthcare (Roadside Attractions, 10/5, TBA, trailer)
How to Survive a Plague (Sundance Selects, 9/21, TBA, trailer)
The Imposter (Indomina, 7/13, R, trailer)
Jiro Dreams of Sushi (Magnolia, 3/9, PG, trailer)
Head Games (Variance Films, 9/21, PG-13, trailer)
The Invisible War (Docurama, 6/22, NR, trailer)
No Place on Earth (Magnolia, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Samsara (Oscilloscope, 8/24, PG-13, trailer) NEW
Possibilities
The Queen of Versailles (Magnolia, 7/20, PG, trailer)
Ethel (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Marley (Magnolia, 4/20, PG-13, trailer)
First Position (Sundance Selects, 5/4, NR, trailer)
Brooklyn Castle (Producers Distribution Agency, 10/19, TBA, trailer)
The Zen of Bennett (Abramorama, 10/24, TBA, trailer)

Scenes of a Crime (New Box Productions, 3/30, NR, trailer)
Love, Marilyn (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Chasing Ice (Submarine Entertainment, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Neil Young Journeys (Sony Pictures Classics, 6/29, PG, trailer)
Bully (The Weinstein Co., 3/30, PG-13, trailer)
Side by Side (Tribeca Films, 8/31, TBA, trailer)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
Front-runners
Austria -- Amour
France -- The Intouchables
Denmark -- A Royal Affair
Switzerland -- Sister

Israel -- Fill the Void
Major Threats
Romania -- Beyond the Hills
South Korea -- Pieta
Germany -- Barbara
Australia -- Lore

Canada -- War Witch
Chile -- No
Philippines -- Bwakaw
Netherlands -- Kauwboy
Japan -- Our Homeland
Bosnia and Herzegovina -- Children of Sarajevo

Possibilities
Hungary -- Just the Wind
Bulgaria -- Sneakers
Greece -- Unfair World

Portugal -- Blood of My Blood
Serbia -- When Day Breaks
Belgium -- Our Children
Morocco -- Death for Sale

Norway -- Kon-Tiki
Sweden -- The Hypnotist
Mexico -- After Lucia
Iceland -- The Deep
Czech Republic -- In the Shadow

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Front-runners
The Master
Django Unchained

Lincoln
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Major Threats
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
The Dark Knight Rises

Anna Karenina
Possibilities
Hitchcock
Flight NEW
Moonrise Kingdom
Argo
The Hunger Games
Sister

Samsara NEW

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Front-runners
Anna Karenina
Snow White and the Huntsman

Les Miserables
Django Unchained
Lincoln

Major Threats
Argo NEW
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
Moonrise Kingdom

Possibilities
Life of Pi
Hitchcock
The Hunger Games
The Avengers
Mirror Mirror

BEST FILM EDITING
Front-runners
Zero Dark Thirty
The Master

Lincoln
Django Unchained
Argo

Major Threats
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
The Dark Knight Rises
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
The Bourne Legacy
Possibilities
Flight
Hitchcock
Moonrise Kingdom
The Avengers

The Hunger Games
The Impossible

End of Watch NEW
Samsara NEW

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Front-runners
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln

Major Threats
The Master
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
Anna Karenina
Hitchcock

Possibilities
Men in Black 3
The Impossible
The Hunger Games
Hyde Park on Hudson

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Front-runners
The Master (Johnny Greenwood)
Zero Dark Thirty (Alexandre Desplat)

Argo (Alexandre Desplat)
Lincoln (John Williams)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Dan Romer, Benh Zeitlin)
Major Threats
The Dark Knight Rises (Hans Zimmer)
Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Howard Shore)
Moonrise Kingdom (Alexandre Desplat)
Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli)
Django Unchained (Mary Ramos)

Hitchcock (Danny Elfman)
Rise of the Guardians (Alexandre Desplat) NEW
Possibilities
On the Road (Gustavo Santaolalla) NEW
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Thomas Newman)
Rust and Bone (Alexandre Desplat)
The Hunger Games (James Newton Howard)
The Impossible (Fernando Velazquez)
Cloud Atlas (Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek, Tom Tykwer)
Flight (Alan Silvestri)
Samsara (Marcello De Francisci, Lisa Gerrard, Michael Stearns)
NEW

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Front-runners
Les Miserables
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained

Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Major Threats
Cloud Atlas
The Master
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Dark Knight Rises
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Argo
Moonrise Kingdom

Possibilities
Life of Pi
The Impossible
Snow White and the Huntsman
Flight
The Avengers
The Hunger Games
Skyfall

BEST SOUND EDITING
Front-runners
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises

The Avengers
Zero Dark Thirty

Lincoln
Major Threats
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
The Master
Argo
Flight

Possibilities
Skyfall
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
The Sapphires

BEST SOUND MIXING
Front-runners
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Les Miserables

Lincoln
Major Threats
Zero Dark Thirty
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
The Master
Argo
Flight
Skyfall

Possibilities
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
The Sapphires

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Front-runners
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
Life of Pi

The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Major Threats
The Amazing Spider-Man
Flight

Possibilities
The Bourne Legacy
Skyfall

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Front-runners
The Education of Mohammad Hussein (Loki Films)
Open Heart (Urban Landscapes Inc.)
Kings Point (Kings Point Documentary, Inc.)
Mondays at Racine (Cynthia Wade Productions)
Inocente (Shine Global, Inc.)
Major Threats
Paraiso (The Strangebird Company)
The Perfect Fit (SDI Productions Ltd.)
Redemption (Downtown Docs)

* * *

ABOUT SCOTT FEINBERG AND THE "FEINBERG FORECAST"

Scott Feinberg is one of the film industry's most trusted awards analysts and has one of the world's best track records at forecasting the Oscars, something that he has been doing since 2001. His best showings came in 2006 (when he correctly called 21 of 24 winners) and 2004 (when he correctly called 20 of 24 winners). He was the only pundit to project long-shot best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011).

Scott factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings at festivals or elsewhere), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated with the Academy), precursor awards (some awards groups have better track records than others of correlating with the Academy) and regular conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters).