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JUL
17
9 MOS

FEINBERG FORECAST: Scott Predicts Thursday Morning's 65th Emmy Award Nominations

THR's awards analyst anticipates strong showings for old favs including "Breaking Bad" and "Modern Family," plus newcomers "House of Cards' and 'The Americans."

House of Cards Kevin Spacey - H 2013
Netflix
"House of Cards"

Emmy nominations are considerably harder to forecast than Oscar nominations. Why? For several reasons...

1) They come out of nowhere. There are not months of festivals, awards shows and promotional events leading up to them. The Golden Globe Awards and Screen Actors Guild Awards recognize TV categories, but they do so a half-year before the TV Academy (meaning that many episodes and even seasons are not considered by the former but are by the latter), with which they have very little demographic overlap anyway. The TV Critics' Choice Awards and Television Critics Awards both occur closer to the Emmy nominations announcement, but they are determined by critics, not TV-makers.

2) They are chosen by a massive and mixed group. Whereas the Film Academy is composed of roughly 6,000 members who each belong to one of 16 branches, the TV Academy is composed of roughly 15,000 people, many of whom have only loose connections to the industry. The size and diversity of the membership, on top of the paucity of other awards shows through which those members express their preferences prior to the Emmy nominations -- unlike Oscar voters, who tend to belong to guilds which announce nominees and winners for their own awards ceremonies before the Academy's --  makes it virtually impossible to figure out how they're leaning.

PHOTOS: Behind-the-Scenes at THR's Drama Showrunner Roundtable

3) They are the product of an impossible task. Nobody -- not even the most diligent TV Academy member -- can see all of the shows and individuals eligible for awards consideration, or even come close. And yet they vote. For this reason, high-profile shows tend to be highlighted and then recognized year after year. But, every once in a while, the members, en masse, gravitate toward and champion newcomers and/or underdogs and/or shows that have already been canceled. Last year, for instance, few among us anticipated their nominations for Harry's Law's Kathy Bates (whose show was not renewed months before nominations came out), or Saturday Night Live's Bill Hader (who had been doing strong work on the show for years without garnering recognition), or Downton Abbey's supporting cast members Jim Carter, Brendan Coyle and Joanne Froggatt (most probably had to look up their names)?

So I guess what I'm saying is that what follows are purely my best "educated" guesses, based on my personal screenings of as many of the most buzzed-about shows that I could see; my conversations with fellow journalists/TV buffs who have made similar efforts; my familiarity with the TV Academy's historic preferences; and my attendance and observations at quite a few of the TV Academy's 2013 member events for top shows, which were usually attended by at least some of the principal talent associated with those shows and followed by network-sponsored receptions for TV Academy members -- both of which, like it or not, impacted the way that some voters felt about shows and people with which they were already familiar and/or inspired them to check out shows and people with which they were not.

PHOTOS: Behind-the-Scenes Photos of TV's Hottest Drama Actors

I look forward to reading your thoughts in the comments section at the bottom of the post (where you can also find a key for the colors and acronyms that appear within it).

BEST SERIES (DRAMA)
Projected Nominees
Mad Men (AMC) SAG, TCA (drama)
Homeland (Showtime)* HFPA, IPA, SAG, BTJA, TCA (drama)
Breaking Bad (AMC) BTJA (tie), HFPA, SAG, IPA, TCA (overall), TCA (drama)
House of Cards (Netflix) TCA (overall)
Game of Thrones (HBO) BTJA (tie), IPA, TCA (overall), TCA (drama)
Downton Abbey (PBS) SAG, HFPA, BTJA, IPA
Major Threats
Boardwalk Empire (HBO) HFPA, SAG
The Americans (FX) BTJA, TCA (overall), TCA (drama)
The Newsroom (HBO) HFPA, IPA
The Good Wife (CBS) BTJA, IPA
Dexter (Showtime)
Bates Motel (A&E)

Scandal (ABC)
Rectify (Sundance Channel)
Southland (TNT)
The Walking Dead (AMC) TCA (overall)
Orphan Black (BBC America)
Justified (FX) IPA
The Closer (TNT)
Sons of Anarchy (FX)

Possibilities
Nashville (ABC) IPA
Hannibal (NBC)
The Vikings (History)
The Killing (AMC)
Parenthood (NBC)
Shameless (Showtime)

The Following (Fox)
Elementary (CBS)
Magic City (Starz)
Doctor Who (BBC)
Fringe (Fox)
Rogue (DirecTV)

PHOTOS: Behind-the-Scenes Photos of TV's Hottest Drama Actresses

BEST ACTOR (DRAMA SERIES)
Projected Nominees
Kevin Spacey (House of Cards) BTJA
Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad) SAG, BTJA, IPA, HFPA, TCA
Damian Lewis (Homeland)* HFPA, IPA, SAG, BTJA
Jon Hamm (Mad Men) HFPA, SAG, IPA
Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire) HFPA, SAG
Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom) HFPA, SAG, IPA
Major Threats
Matthew Rhys (The Americans) BTJA, TCA
Hugh Bonneville (Downton Abbey)
Michael C. Hall (Dexter)
Timothy Olyphant (Justified
) BTJA, IPA
Andrew Lincoln (The Walking Dead) BTJA
Aden Young (Rectify)
Nathan Fillion (Castle)
Charlie Hunnam (Sons of Anarchy)
Possibilities
Kevin Bacon (The Following)
Hugh Dancy (Hannibal)
Jonny Lee Miller (Elementary) IPA
William H. Macy (Shameless)
Peter Krause (Parenthood)
Matt Bomer (White Collar)
Patrick J. Adams (Suits)
Jeffrey Dean Morgan (Magic City)

PHOTOS: Behind-the-Scenes With TV's Outrageous Comedy Actors

BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA SERIES)
Projected Nominees
Claire Danes (Homeland)* HFPA, SAG, IPA, BTJA
Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife) HFPA, SAG, BTJA, IPA
Keri Russell (The Americans) BTJA
Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey) HFPA, SAG, IPA
Elisabeth Moss (Mad Men) BTJA
Kerry Washington (Scandal)
Major Threats
Robin Wright (House of Cards)
Vera Farmiga (Bates Motel) BTJA, TCA
Connie Britton (Nashville) HFPA, IPA
Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black) BTJA, TCA
Jessica Pare (Mad Men)
Mireille Enos (The Killing)
Emmy Rossum (Shameless)
Glenn Close (Damages) HFPA
Stana Katic (Castle)
Possibilities
Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer)
Mariska Hargitay (Law & Order: SVU)
Katey Sagal (Sons of Anarchy)
Lucy Liu (Elementary)
Chloe Sevigny (Hit & Miss
) IPA
Elizabeth McGovern (Downton Abbey)
Anna Torv (Fringe)
Thandie Newton (Rogue)
Callie Thorne (Necessary Roughness)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA SERIES)
Projected Nominees
Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad)*
Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
IPA
Corey Stoll (House of Cards) BTJA
Jonathan Banks (Breaking Bad) BTJA
Mandy Patinkin (Homeland) HFPA
Noah Emmerich (The Americans) BTJA
Major Threats
Sam Waterston (The Newsroom)
Nikolaj Coster-Waldau (Game of Thrones) BTJA
Dean Norris (Breaking Bad)
Bobby Cannavale (Boardwalk Empire)

Alan Cumming (The Good Wife)
Rob-James Collier (Downton Abbey)
Brendan Coyle (Downton Abbey)
Jim Carter (Downton Abbey)
IPA
Kevin Rahm (Mad Men)
John Slattery (Mad Men)

Michael Cudlitz (Southland) BTJA
Jeff Perry (Scandal)
Possibilities
Freddie Highmore (Bates Motel)
Walton Goggins (Justified) BTJA
Neal McDonough (Justified) IPA
Josh Charles (The Good Wife)
Freddie Highmore (Bates Motel)
Powers Boothe (Nashville)
IPA
Giancarlo Esposito (Revolution)
Danny Huston (Magic City
) HFPA
Michael Shannon (Boardwalk Empire)
John Noble (Fringe)
Theo Rossi (Sons of Anarchy)
Larry Hagman (Dallas)

PHOTOS: Behind the Scenes With TV's Hilarious Comedy Actresses

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA SERIES)
Projected Nominees
Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)* HFPA, IPA, SAG (joint leading/supporting)
Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad) BTJA
Monica Potter (Parenthood) BTJA, TCA
Christine Baranski (The Good Wife)
Christina Hendricks (Mad Men) IPA
Jennifer Carpenter (Dexter) BTJA
Major Threats
Morena Baccarin (Homeland)
Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones) BTJA
Kate Mara (House of Cards)
Emily Mortimer (The Newsroom)
Joanne Froggatt (Downton Abbey)
Elizabeth McGovern (Downton Abbey)

Regina King (Southland) BTJA
Hayden Panettiere (Nashville) HFPA
Possibilities
Abigail Spencer (Rectify)
Jessica Pare (Mad Men)
Olivia Munn (The Newsroom)
Archie Panjabi (The Good Wife
) HFPA
Kelly Macdonald (Boardwalk Empire)
Maggie Siff (Sons of Anarchy)
Alison Pill (The Newsroom)
Kiernan Shipka (Mad Men)
Rose Byrne (Damages)

BEST GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA SERIES)
Projected Nominees
Ray Romano (Parenthood)
Jimmy Smits (Sons of Anarchy) BTJA
Michael J. Fox (The Good Wife)
Dylan Baker (The Good Wife)
Nathan Lane (The Good Wife)
Jim Beaver (Justified) BTJA
Major Threats
Rupert Friend (Homeland)
Matthew Perry (The Good Wife)
Andre Braugher (Law & Order: SVU)
Ed Asner (Law & Order: SVU)
Jere Burns (Justified)

Possibilities
Chris Messina (The Newsroom)
Ciaran Hinds (Game of Thrones)
Patton Oswalt (Justified)
Sean Hayes (Smash)
Derek Luke (The Americans)

PHOTOS: TV's Biggest Supporting Stars

BEST GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA SERIES)
Projected Nominees
Shirley MacLaine (Downton Abbey)
Jane Fonda (The Newsroom) BTJA
Martha Plimpton (The Good Wife) BTJA
Carrie Preston (The Good Wife) BTJA
Diana Rigg (Game of Thrones) BTJA
Linda Cardellini (Mad Men)
Major Threats
Margo Martindale (The Americans)
Gillian Anderson (Hannibal)
Marin Ireland (Homeland)
Stockard Channing (The Good Wife)
Joan Cusack (Shameless)

Possibilities
Jennifer Hudson (Smash)
Bernadette Peters (Smash)
Liza Minnelli (Smash)
Marcia Gay Harden (Law & Order: SVU)
Hope Davis (Law & Order: SVU)
Patricia Arquette (Law & Order: SVU)

BEST SERIES (COMEDY)
Projected Nominees
Modern Family (ABC)* SAG, HFPA, IPA
The Big Bang Theory (CBS) BTJA, HFPA, SAG, IPA, TCA (comedy)
Girls (HBO) HFPA, IPA
Louie (FX) BTJA, TCA (comedy)
30 Rock (NBC) SAG
Veep (HBO) BTJA, TCA (comedy)
Major Threats
Arrested Development (Netflix)
Parks and Recreation (NBC)
BTJA, IPA, TCA (comedy)
New Girl (Fox) BTJA, TCA (comedy)
Two and a Half Men (CBS)
The Middle (ABC)
BTJA
Nurse Jackie (FX) SAG
Episodes (HBO) HFPA
Enlightened (HBO)
Possibilities
How I Met Your Mother (CBS)
Glee (Fox)
SAG
The Office (NBC) SAG, IPA
The Mindy Project (Fox)
Mike & Molly (CBS)
Happy Endings (ABC)
IPA
Community (NBC) IPA
Smash (NBC) HFPA
Up All Night (NBC) IPA

BEST ACTOR (COMEDY SERIES)
Projected Nominees
Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory) HFPA, BTJA, IPA
Alec Baldwin (30 Rock) SAG, HFPA
Louis C.K. (Louie) BTJA, HFPA, IPA, TCA
Don Cheadle (House of Lies) HFPA, BTJA, IPA
Jon Cryer (Two and a Half Men)*
Jake Johnson (New Girl) BTJA, TCA
Major Threats
Jason Bateman (Arrested Development)
Matt LeBlanc (Episodes) HFPA
Johnny Galecki (The Big Bang Theory) IPA
Adam Scott (Parks and Recreation) BTJA
Rob Lowe (Parks and Recreation)
Possibilities
Joel McHale (Community) IPA
Jeremy Sisto (Suburgatory) BTJA
Will Arnett (Up All Night) IPA

BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY SERIES)
Projected Nominees
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)* BTJA, HFPA, IPA, TCA
Lena Dunham (Girls) HFPA, BTJA, IPA, TCA
Tina Fey (30 Rock) SAG, HFPA
Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation) HFPA, SAG, BTJA, IPA, TCA
Zooey Deschanel (New Girl) HFPA, BTJA
Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie) SAG
Major Threats
Laura Dern (Enlightened) BTJA, IPA
Kaley Cuoco (The Big Bang Theory) IPA
Melissa McCarthy (Mike & Molly)
Patricia Heaton (The Middle)
Jane Levy (Suburgatory)
Mindy Kaling (The Mindy Project)

Possibilities
Lea Michelle (Glee)
Martha Plimpton (Raising Hope)
Sutton Foster (Bunheads) BTJA
Mary-Louise Parker (Weeds)
Christina Applegate (Up All Night)
IPA

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY SERIES)
Projected Nominees
Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family)* HFPA
Max Greenfield (New Girl) HFPA, BTJA
Ed O'Neill (Modern Family)
Ty Burrell (Modern Family)

Will Arnett (Arrested Development)
Jeffrey Tambor (Arrested Development)
Major Threats
Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family)
Simon Helberg (The Big Bang Theory) BTJA
Bill Hader (Saturday Night Live)
Jason Sudeikis (Saturday Night Live)
Neil Patrick Harris (How I Met Your Mother)
Tony Hale (Veep)
Chris Pratt (Parks and Recreation)
BTJA
Possibilities
Adam Driver (Girls)
Alex Karpovsky (Girls) BTJA
David Cross (Arrested Development)
Nick Offerman (Parks and Recreation)

Adam Pally (Happy Endings) BTJA
Danny Pudi (Community) BTJA

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY SERIES)
Projected Nominees
Sofia Vergara (Modern Family) HFPA, SAG (joint leading/supporting)
Julie Bowen (Modern Family)*
Jane Krakowski (30 Rock)
Jessica Walter (Arrested Development)
Kaley Cuoco (The Big Bang Theory) BTJA (tie)
Mayim Bialik (The Big Bang Theory) IPA
Major Threats
Betty White (Hot in Cleveland) SAG (joint leading/supporting)
Merritt Wever (Nurse Jackie)
Allison Williams (Girls)
Eden Sher (The Middle) BTJA (tie)
Anna Chlumsky (Veep)
Melissa Rauch (The Big Bang Theory)

Possibilities
Jenna Fischer (The Office)
Zosia Mamet (Girls)

Sarah Hyland (Modern Family) BTJA
Carly Chaikin (Suburgatory) BTJA
Melissa Rauch (The Big Bang Theory) BTJA
Casey Wilson (Happy Endings) BTJA
Maya Rudolph (Up All Night) IPA

BEST GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY SERIES)
Projected Nominees
Justin Timberlake (Saturday Night Live)
Bob Newhart (The Big Bang Theory)
BTJA
Will Arnett (30 Rock)
Matthew Broderick (Modern Family)
F. Murray Abraham (Louie)
Patrick Wilson (Girls)
BTJA
Major Threats
Bobby Cannavale (Nurse Jackie)
Patton Oswalt (Parks and Recreation)
BTJA
Henry Winkler (Arrested Development)
Louie C.K. (Saturday Night Live)
Martin Short (Saturday Night Live)
Nathan Lane (Modern Family)

Possibilities
Matt Damon (House of Lies)
David Lynch (Louie)
BTJA
Robin Williams (Louie)
Ron Howard (Arrested Development)
Chris O'Dowd (Girls)

BEST GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY SERIES)
Projected Nominees
Elizabeth Banks (Modern Family)
Melissa Leo (Louie) BTJA
Liza Minnelli (Arrested Development)
Parker Posey (Louie)
Kristen Wiig (Saturday Night Live)
Chloe Sevigny (Louie)
Major Threats
Melissa McCarthy (Saturday Night Live)
Sarah Jessica Parker (Glee)
Catherine O'Hara (30 Rock)

Molly Shannon (Enlightened) BTJA
Possibilities
Isla Fisher (Arrested Development)
Kathryn Hahn (Parks and Recreation)
Dot-Marie Jones (Glee)

BEST TV MOVIE OR MINI-SERIES
Projected Nominees
Behind the Candelabra (HBO)
American Horror Story: Asylum (FX)
Top of the Lake (Sundance Channel)
Political Animals (USA)
Parade's End (BBC Two)

Phil Spector (HBO)
Major Threats
The Bible (History)
The Hour (BBC America)
The Girl (HBO)
The Big C: Hereafter (Showtime)

Possibilities
Mary and Martha (HBO)
Steel Magnolias (Lifetime)
Betty and Coretta (Lifetime)
Killing Lincoln (Lifetime)

BEST ACTOR (TV MOVIE OR MINI-SERIES)
Projected Nominees
Michael Douglas (Behind the Candelabra) BTJA
Matt Damon (Behind the Candelabra) BTJA
Al Pacino (Phil Spector) BTJA
Benedict Cumberbatch (Parade's End) BTJA
Kenneth Branagh (Wallander)
Toby Jones (The Girl) HFPA, BTJA
Major Threats
Ben Whishaw (The Hour)
Dominic West (The Hour) BTJA
Rob Lowe (Prosecuting Casey Anthony)
Possibilities
Diogo Morgado (The Bible)
Billy Campbell (Killing Lincoln)
Jesse Johnson(Killing Lincoln)

BEST ACTRESS (TV MOVIE OR MINI-SERIES)
Projected Nominees
Jessica Lange (American Horror Story: Asylum) HFPA, BTJA
Helen Mirren (Phil Spector)
Sigourney Weaver (Political Animals
) SAG, BTJA
Elizabeth Moss (Top of the Lake) BTJA
Rebecca Hall (Parade's End) BTJA
Sienna Miller (The Girl) HFPA, BTJA (supporting, not lead)
Major Threats
Angela Bassett (Betty and Coretta) BTJA
Romola Garai (The Hour) BTJA
Laura Linney (The Big C: Hereafter)
Hilary Swank (Mary and Martha)
Possibilities
Brenda Blethyn (Mary and Martha)
Queen Latifah (Steel Magnolias)
Jewel (Ring of Fire)
Jennifer Hudson (Call Me Crazy

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (TV MOVIE OR MINI-SERIES)
Projected Nominees
Zachary Quinto (American Horror Story: Asylum) BTJA
James Cromwell (American Horror Story: Asylum) BTJA
Peter Mullan (Top of the Lake)  BTJA
Rob Lowe (Behind the Candelabra)
Evan Peters (American Horror Story: Asylum)
Jeffrey Tambor (Phil Spector)
Major Threats
Sebastian Stan (Political Animals) BTJA
Ciaran Hinds (Political Animals)
David Wenham (Top of the Lake) BTJA
Thomas Wright (Top of the Lake) BTJA
Rupert Everett (Parade's End)
Possibilities
James Woods (Mary and Martha)
Oliver Platt (The Big C: Hereafter)
Jon Benjamin Hickey (The Big C: Hereafter)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (TV MOVIE OR MINI-SERIES)
Projected Nominees
Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story: Asylum) BTJA
Alfre Woodard (Steel Magnolias) SAG, BTJA
Holly Hunter (Top of the Lake)
Ellen Burstyn (Political Animals)
BTJA
Imelda Staunton (The Girl) BTJA
Janet McTeer (Parade's End)
Major Threats
Lily Rabe (American Horror Story: Asylum) BTJA
Frances Conroy (American Horror Story: Asylum)
Gabourey Sidibe (The Big C: Hereafter)
Miranda Richardson (Parade's End)

Possibilities
Michelle Dockery (Restless)
Octavia Spencer (Call Me Crazy)
Carla Gugino (Political Animals)
Roma Downey (The Bible)

* * *

KEY

Contenders' names are followed, when appropriate, by acronyms of the major awards groups (see below) that have already named them winners (in orange) or nominees (in purple). Some nominations are still pending (they appear in italics). *denotes last year's Emmy winner

BTJA = 3rd Critics' Choice Television Awards (June 10, 2013)

HFPA = 70th Golden Globe Awards (Jan. 13, 2013)

IPA = 17th Satellite Awards (Dec. 16, 2012)

SAG = 19th Screen Actors Guild Awards (Jan. 27, 2013)

TCA = 29th Television Critics Association Awards (Aug. 3, 2013)