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Emmys: Who Will Win, Who Should Win (Analysis)

THR awards analyst Scott Feinberg picks the probable victors (like "House of Cards'" Kevin Spacey) while chief TV critic Tim Goodman defends the most deserving nominees (including "Mad Men's" Elisabeth Moss.)

Breaking Bad Emmy Picks - H 2013
AMC
"Breaking Bad"

This story first appeared in the Sept. 6 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine.

DRAMA

OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES

WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN: Breaking Bad (AMC)

Says Goodman: We can argue legacy for days. But there are only two series with enough greatness under their belts at this moment to enter the Hall of Fame, and one of them -- Mad Men -- had what many consider an erratic year. Breaking Bad did not. In fact, it never has.

Downton Abbey (PBS)

Game of Thrones (HBO)

Homeland (Showtime)

House of Cards (Netflix)

Mad Men (AMC)

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OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Hugh Bonneville as Robert, Earl of Grantham, Downton Abbey (PBS)

Bryan Cranston as Walter White, Breaking Bad (AMC)

Jeff Daniels as Will McAvoy, The Newsroom (HBO)

SHOULD WIN: Jon Hamm as Don Draper, Mad Men (AMC)

Says Goodman: It's time, people. This is the most competitive acting category and has been for a while -- so many deserving nominees. He could have won it any number of years without much argument. This year, he should finally do just that.

Damian Lewis as Nicholas Brody, Homeland (Showtime)

WILL WIN: Kevin Spacey as Francis Underwood, House of Cards (Netflix)

STORY: Emmys: Six Nominated Actors Dish the Details of Character-Building

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Connie Britton as Rayna Jaymes, Nashville ABC

WILL WIN: Claire Danes as Carrie Mathison, Homeland (Showtime)

Michelle Dockery as Lady Mary Crawley, Downton Abbey (PBS)

Vera Farmiga as Norma Bates, Bates Motel (A&E)

SHOULD WIN: Elisabeth Moss as Peggy Olson, Mad Men (AMC)

Says Goodman: I'll resist my urge to say yet again that this should be a slam dunk for Orphan Black's Tatiana Maslany. Oops, did it again. Otherwise, this goes to Moss and is, in fact, long overdue.

Kerry Washington as Olivia Pope, Scandal (ABC)

Robin Wright as Claire Underwood, House of Cards (Netflix)

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OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Jonathan Banks as Mike Ehrmantraut, Breaking Bad (AMC)

Bobby Cannavale as Gyp Rosetti, Boardwalk Empire (HBO)

Jim Carter as Mr. Carson, Downton Abbey (PBS)

Peter Dinklage as Tyrion Lannister, Game of Thrones (HBO)

Mandy Patinkin as Saul Berenson, Homeland (Showtime)

WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN: Aaron Paul as Jesse Pinkman, Breaking Bad (AMC)

Says Goodman: The only scenario I can see in which the deserving Paul doesn't win again is if Patinkin gets the nod. And not many would be too miffed, given how Patinkin absolutely and commandingly grounded season two.

PHOTOS: THR Emmy Roundtable: Behind-the-Scenes Photos of TV's Hottest Drama Actors

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Morena Baccarin as Jessica Brody, Homeland (Showtime)

Christine Baranski as Diane Lockhart, The Good Wife (CBS)

Emilia Clarke as Daenerys Targaryen, Game of Thrones (HBO)

SHOULD WIN: Anna Gunn as Skyler White, Breaking Bad (AMC)

Says Goodman: It's time, people. (See: Hamm, Jon.) Ignore absurd viewer reaction to Gunn's character; it says much about the genius in the creation of the series but still is misguided. She earned it. It's hers.

Christina Hendricks as Joan Harris, Mad Men AMC

WILL WIN: Maggie Smith as Violet, Dowager Countess of Grantham, Downton Abbey (PBS)

STORY: Emmys: Handicapping Comedy's Supporting Players -- and the Vacancy Left by Eric Stonestreet

COMEDY

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES

The Big Bang Theory (CBS)

Girls (HBO)

SHOULD WIN: Louie (FX)

Says Goodman: Much as I have adored 30 Rock through the years and Veep and Girls of late, this shouldn't even be close, particularly because Arrested Development got snubbed. Louie came into the world brilliant and hasn't looked back.

WILL WIN: Modern Family (ABC)

30 Rock (NBC)

Veep (HBO)

STORY: Emmys: 'Portlandia' and 'The Simpsons' Among Early Winners

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Alec Baldwin as Jack Donaghy, 30 Rock (NBC)

SHOULD WIN: Jason Bateman as Michael Bluth, Arrested Development (Netflix)

Says Goodman: Bateman is the glue that holds Arrested together, and that was particularly clear in the Netflix extension.

Don Cheadle as Marty Kaan, House of Lies (Showtime)

Louis C.K. as Louie, Louie (FX)

Matt LeBlanc as Matt LeBlanc, Episodes (Showtime)

WILL WIN: Jim Parsons as Sheldon Cooper, The Big Bang Theory (CBS)

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OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Laura Dern as Amy Jellicoe, Enlightened (HBO)

Lena Dunham as Hannah Horvath, Girls (HBO)

Edie Falco as Jackie Peyton, Nurse Jackie (Showtime)

Tina Fey as Liz Lemon, 30 Rock (NBC)

WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN: Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Selina Meyer, Veep (HBO)

Says Goodman: Everybody finally got up to the greatness of Veep by the second season and thus witnessed Louis-Dreyfus remind us how talented she is as a comic actress.

Amy Poehler as Leslie Knope, Parks and Recreation (NBC)

STORY: Emmys: 12 Categories With Potentially Historic Wins

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Ty Burrell as Phil Dunphy, Modern Family (ABC)

SHOULD WIN: Adam Driver as Adam Sackler, Girls (HBO)

Says Goodman: Nobody is saying the Modern Family juggernaut isn't filled with worthy noms, but this belongs to Driver. He's fearless and funny.

Jesse Tyler Ferguson as Mitchell Pritchett, Modern Family (ABC)

Bill Hader as various characters, Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Tony Hale as Gary Walsh, Veep (HBO)

WILL WIN: Ed O'Neill as Jay Pritchett, Modern Family (ABC)

PHOTOS: Emmys: Exclusive Photos of TV's Biggest Supporting Stars

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Mayim Bialik as Amy Farrah Fowler, The Big Bang Theory (CBS)

SHOULD WIN: Julie Bowen as Claire Dunphy, Modern Family (ABC)

Says Goodman: Much as I would love to see Chlumsky steal this, Bowen's continued exceptional work can't be ignored.

Anna Chlumsky as Amy Brookheimer, Veep (HBO)

Jane Krakowski as Jenna Maroney, 30 Rock (NBC)

Jane Lynch as Sue Sylvester, Glee (Fox)

WILL WIN: Sofia Vergara as Gloria Pritchett, Modern Family (ABC)

Merritt Wever as Zoey Barkow, Nurse Jackie (Showtime)