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AUG
22
1 years

Emmys: Who Will Win, Who Should Win (Analysis)

MOVIE/MINISERIES

OUTSTANDING MINISERIES OR MOVIE

American Horror Story: Asylum (FX)

WILL WIN: Behind the Candelabra (HBO)

The Bible (HISTORY)

Phil Spector (HBO)

Political Animals (USA)

SHOULD WIN: Top of the Lake (Sundance Channel)

Says Goodman: In this category, there wasn't anything like Top of the Lake. In reality, this race probably won't be close, but it was the best miniseries last season, period.

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OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR A MOVIE

Benedict Cumberbatch as Christopher Tietjens, Parade's End (HBO)

Matt Damon as Scott Thorson, Behind the Candelabra (HBO)

WILL WIN: Michael Douglas as Liberace, Behind the Candelabra (HBO)

Toby Jones as Alfred Hitchcock, The Girl (HBO)

SHOULD WIN: Al Pacino as Phil Spector, Phil Spector (HBO)

Says Goodman: I could chicken out and say it will go to an actor playing an outsized character on HBO (Damon, Douglas, Pacino), but I like Pacino's bizarreness as Spector.

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OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR A MOVIE

WILL WIN: Jessica Lange as Sister Jude Martin, American Horror Story: Asylum (FX)

Laura Linney as Cathy Jamison, The Big C: Hereafter (Showtime)

Helen Mirren as Linda Kenney Baden, Phil Spector (HBO)

SHOULD WIN: Elisabeth Moss as Robin, Top of the Lake (Sundance Channel)

Says Goodman: A strong category goes to Moss for her multilayered, nuanced but powerful turn.

Sigourney Weaver as Elaine Barrish Hammond, Political Animals (USA)

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OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR A MOVIE

Scott Bakula as Bob Black, Behind the Candelabra (HBO)

James Cromwell as Dr. Arthur Arden, American Horror Story: Asylum (FX)

John Benjamin Hickey as Sean Tolkey, The Big C: Hereafter (Showtime)

SHOULD WIN: Peter Mullan as Matt, Top of the Lake (Sundance Channel)

Says Goodman: This one is easy. There wasn't anyone nearly as good as Mullan in Top of the Lake. He was off-the-charts great.

WILL WIN: Zachary Quinto as Dr. Oliver Thredson, American Horror Story: Asylum (FX)

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OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR A MOVIE

Ellen Burstyn as Margaret Barrish Worthington, Political Animals (USA)

WILL WIN: Sarah Paulson as Lana Winters, American Horror Story: Asylum (FX)

SHOULD WIN: Charlotte Rampling as Sally Gilmartin, Restless (Sundance Channel)

Says Goodman: Mesmerizing and haunting every time she was on the screen.

Imelda Staunton as Alma Hitchcock, The Girl (HBO)

Alfre Woodard as Ouiser, Steel Magnolias (Lifetime)

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VARIETY

OUTSTANDING VARIETY SERIES

The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)

WILL WIN The Daily Show With Jon Stewart (Comedy Central)

SHOULD WIN Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)

Late Night With Jimmy Fallon (NBC)

Real Time With Bill Maher (HBO)

Saturday Night Live (NBC)

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REALITY*

OUTSTANDING REALITY PROGRAM

Antiques Roadshow (PBS)

WILL WIN: Deadliest Catch (Discovery)

Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives (Food Network)

MythBusters (Discovery)

Shark Tank (ABC)

Undercover Boss (CBS)

STORY: THR Emmy Roundtable: Randy Jackson, Gordon Ramsay and Other Reality Stars on Bad Contestants and Biggest Regrets

OUTSTANDING REALITY COMPETITION PROGRAM

WILL WIN: The Amazing Race (CBS)

Dancing With the Stars (ABC)

Project Runway (Lifetime)

So You Think You Can Dance (Fox)

Top Chef (Bravo)

The Voice (NBC)

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OUTSTANDING HOST FOR A REALITY OR REALITY COMPETITION PROGRAM

WILL WIN: Tom Bergeron, Dancing With the Stars (ABC)

Anthony Bourdain, The Taste (ABC)

Cat Deeley, So You Think You Can Dance (Fox)

Heidi Klum, Tim Gunn, Project Runway (Lifetime)

Ryan Seacrest, American Idol (Fox)

Betty White, Betty White's Off Their Rockers (NBC)

* Tim Goodman recuses himself from reality television for lack of exposure to the material.