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Emmys: Who Will Win, Who Should Win (Analysis)

This story first appeared in the Sept. 6 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine.

DRAMA

OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES

WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN: Breaking Bad (AMC)

Says Goodman: We can argue legacy for days. But there are only two series with enough greatness under their belts at this moment to enter the Hall of Fame, and one of them -- Mad Men -- had what many consider an erratic year. Breaking Bad did not. In fact, it never has.

Downton Abbey (PBS)

Game of Thrones (HBO)

Homeland (Showtime)

House of Cards (Netflix)

Mad Men (AMC)

PHOTOS: Emmys: 15 of the Most Surprising Snubs

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Hugh Bonneville as Robert, Earl of Grantham, Downton Abbey (PBS)

Bryan Cranston as Walter White, Breaking Bad (AMC)

Jeff Daniels as Will McAvoy, The Newsroom (HBO)

SHOULD WIN: Jon Hamm as Don Draper, Mad Men (AMC)

Says Goodman: It's time, people. This is the most competitive acting category and has been for a while -- so many deserving nominees. He could have won it any number of years without much argument. This year, he should finally do just that.

Damian Lewis as Nicholas Brody, Homeland (Showtime)

WILL WIN: Kevin Spacey as Francis Underwood, House of Cards (Netflix)

STORY: Emmys: Six Nominated Actors Dish the Details of Character-Building

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Connie Britton as Rayna Jaymes, Nashville ABC

WILL WIN: Claire Danes as Carrie Mathison, Homeland (Showtime)

Michelle Dockery as Lady Mary Crawley, Downton Abbey (PBS)

Vera Farmiga as Norma Bates, Bates Motel (A&E)

SHOULD WIN: Elisabeth Moss as Peggy Olson, Mad Men (AMC)

Says Goodman: I'll resist my urge to say yet again that this should be a slam dunk for Orphan Black's Tatiana Maslany. Oops, did it again. Otherwise, this goes to Moss and is, in fact, long overdue.

Kerry Washington as Olivia Pope, Scandal (ABC)

Robin Wright as Claire Underwood, House of Cards (Netflix)

STORY: Emmys: 14 Creative Arts Overachievers Talk Editing, Effects and Animation

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Jonathan Banks as Mike Ehrmantraut, Breaking Bad (AMC)

Bobby Cannavale as Gyp Rosetti, Boardwalk Empire (HBO)

Jim Carter as Mr. Carson, Downton Abbey (PBS)

Peter Dinklage as Tyrion Lannister, Game of Thrones (HBO)

Mandy Patinkin as Saul Berenson, Homeland (Showtime)

WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN: Aaron Paul as Jesse Pinkman, Breaking Bad (AMC)

Says Goodman: The only scenario I can see in which the deserving Paul doesn't win again is if Patinkin gets the nod. And not many would be too miffed, given how Patinkin absolutely and commandingly grounded season two.

PHOTOS: THR Emmy Roundtable: Behind-the-Scenes Photos of TV's Hottest Drama Actors

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Morena Baccarin as Jessica Brody, Homeland (Showtime)

Christine Baranski as Diane Lockhart, The Good Wife (CBS)

Emilia Clarke as Daenerys Targaryen, Game of Thrones (HBO)

SHOULD WIN: Anna Gunn as Skyler White, Breaking Bad (AMC)

Says Goodman: It's time, people. (See: Hamm, Jon.) Ignore absurd viewer reaction to Gunn's character; it says much about the genius in the creation of the series but still is misguided. She earned it. It's hers.

Christina Hendricks as Joan Harris, Mad Men AMC

WILL WIN: Maggie Smith as Violet, Dowager Countess of Grantham, Downton Abbey (PBS)

STORY: Emmys: Handicapping Comedy's Supporting Players -- and the Vacancy Left by Eric Stonestreet

COMEDY

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES

The Big Bang Theory (CBS)

Girls (HBO)

SHOULD WIN: Louie (FX)

Says Goodman: Much as I have adored 30 Rock through the years and Veep and Girls of late, this shouldn't even be close, particularly because Arrested Development got snubbed. Louie came into the world brilliant and hasn't looked back.

WILL WIN: Modern Family (ABC)

30 Rock (NBC)

Veep (HBO)

STORY: Emmys: 'Portlandia' and 'The Simpsons' Among Early Winners

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Alec Baldwin as Jack Donaghy, 30 Rock (NBC)

SHOULD WIN: Jason Bateman as Michael Bluth, Arrested Development (Netflix)

Says Goodman: Bateman is the glue that holds Arrested together, and that was particularly clear in the Netflix extension.

Don Cheadle as Marty Kaan, House of Lies (Showtime)

Louis C.K. as Louie, Louie (FX)

Matt LeBlanc as Matt LeBlanc, Episodes (Showtime)

WILL WIN: Jim Parsons as Sheldon Cooper, The Big Bang Theory (CBS)

PHOTOS: THR Emmy Roundtable: Behind the Scenes With TV's Hilarious Comedy Actresses

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Laura Dern as Amy Jellicoe, Enlightened (HBO)

Lena Dunham as Hannah Horvath, Girls (HBO)

Edie Falco as Jackie Peyton, Nurse Jackie (Showtime)

Tina Fey as Liz Lemon, 30 Rock (NBC)

WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN: Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Selina Meyer, Veep (HBO)

Says Goodman: Everybody finally got up to the greatness of Veep by the second season and thus witnessed Louis-Dreyfus remind us how talented she is as a comic actress.

Amy Poehler as Leslie Knope, Parks and Recreation (NBC)

STORY: Emmys: 12 Categories With Potentially Historic Wins

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Ty Burrell as Phil Dunphy, Modern Family (ABC)

SHOULD WIN: Adam Driver as Adam Sackler, Girls (HBO)

Says Goodman: Nobody is saying the Modern Family juggernaut isn't filled with worthy noms, but this belongs to Driver. He's fearless and funny.

Jesse Tyler Ferguson as Mitchell Pritchett, Modern Family (ABC)

Bill Hader as various characters, Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Tony Hale as Gary Walsh, Veep (HBO)

WILL WIN: Ed O'Neill as Jay Pritchett, Modern Family (ABC)

PHOTOS: Emmys: Exclusive Photos of TV's Biggest Supporting Stars

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Mayim Bialik as Amy Farrah Fowler, The Big Bang Theory (CBS)

SHOULD WIN: Julie Bowen as Claire Dunphy, Modern Family (ABC)

Says Goodman: Much as I would love to see Chlumsky steal this, Bowen's continued exceptional work can't be ignored.

Anna Chlumsky as Amy Brookheimer, Veep (HBO)

Jane Krakowski as Jenna Maroney, 30 Rock (NBC)

Jane Lynch as Sue Sylvester, Glee (Fox)

WILL WIN: Sofia Vergara as Gloria Pritchett, Modern Family (ABC)

Merritt Wever as Zoey Barkow, Nurse Jackie (Showtime)

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MOVIE/MINISERIES

OUTSTANDING MINISERIES OR MOVIE

American Horror Story: Asylum (FX)

WILL WIN: Behind the Candelabra (HBO)

The Bible (HISTORY)

Phil Spector (HBO)

Political Animals (USA)

SHOULD WIN: Top of the Lake (Sundance Channel)

Says Goodman: In this category, there wasn't anything like Top of the Lake. In reality, this race probably won't be close, but it was the best miniseries last season, period.

STORY: Emmys: Stephen Colbert Campaigns for Fellow Nominees in For Your Consideration Ad

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR A MOVIE

Benedict Cumberbatch as Christopher Tietjens, Parade's End (HBO)

Matt Damon as Scott Thorson, Behind the Candelabra (HBO)

WILL WIN: Michael Douglas as Liberace, Behind the Candelabra (HBO)

Toby Jones as Alfred Hitchcock, The Girl (HBO)

SHOULD WIN: Al Pacino as Phil Spector, Phil Spector (HBO)

Says Goodman: I could chicken out and say it will go to an actor playing an outsized character on HBO (Damon, Douglas, Pacino), but I like Pacino's bizarreness as Spector.

STORY: Emmys: 'Girls' Creator Lena Dunham on Directing Forced Sex and Season 2's Hardest-to-Watch Scene (Q&A)

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR A MOVIE

WILL WIN: Jessica Lange as Sister Jude Martin, American Horror Story: Asylum (FX)

Laura Linney as Cathy Jamison, The Big C: Hereafter (Showtime)

Helen Mirren as Linda Kenney Baden, Phil Spector (HBO)

SHOULD WIN: Elisabeth Moss as Robin, Top of the Lake (Sundance Channel)

Says Goodman: A strong category goes to Moss for her multilayered, nuanced but powerful turn.

Sigourney Weaver as Elaine Barrish Hammond, Political Animals (USA)

STORY: Emmys: Sibling Writers Compete as 'Mad Men,' 'Breaking Bad' Vie for Top Drama

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR A MOVIE

Scott Bakula as Bob Black, Behind the Candelabra (HBO)

James Cromwell as Dr. Arthur Arden, American Horror Story: Asylum (FX)

John Benjamin Hickey as Sean Tolkey, The Big C: Hereafter (Showtime)

SHOULD WIN: Peter Mullan as Matt, Top of the Lake (Sundance Channel)

Says Goodman: This one is easy. There wasn't anyone nearly as good as Mullan in Top of the Lake. He was off-the-charts great.

WILL WIN: Zachary Quinto as Dr. Oliver Thredson, American Horror Story: Asylum (FX)

STORY: Emmys: Linda Cardellini Talks 'Mad Men' Casting, Sylvia's Inspiration

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR A MOVIE

Ellen Burstyn as Margaret Barrish Worthington, Political Animals (USA)

WILL WIN: Sarah Paulson as Lana Winters, American Horror Story: Asylum (FX)

SHOULD WIN: Charlotte Rampling as Sally Gilmartin, Restless (Sundance Channel)

Says Goodman: Mesmerizing and haunting every time she was on the screen.

Imelda Staunton as Alma Hitchcock, The Girl (HBO)

Alfre Woodard as Ouiser, Steel Magnolias (Lifetime)

STORY: Emmys: Can Anyone Beat Jon Stewart?

VARIETY

OUTSTANDING VARIETY SERIES

The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)

WILL WIN The Daily Show With Jon Stewart (Comedy Central)

SHOULD WIN Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)

Late Night With Jimmy Fallon (NBC)

Real Time With Bill Maher (HBO)

Saturday Night Live (NBC)

PHOTOS: THR Emmy Roundtable: Behind-the-Scenes With Reality TV's Top Stars

REALITY*

OUTSTANDING REALITY PROGRAM

Antiques Roadshow (PBS)

WILL WIN: Deadliest Catch (Discovery)

Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives (Food Network)

MythBusters (Discovery)

Shark Tank (ABC)

Undercover Boss (CBS)

STORY: THR Emmy Roundtable: Randy Jackson, Gordon Ramsay and Other Reality Stars on Bad Contestants and Biggest Regrets

OUTSTANDING REALITY COMPETITION PROGRAM

WILL WIN: The Amazing Race (CBS)

Dancing With the Stars (ABC)

Project Runway (Lifetime)

So You Think You Can Dance (Fox)

Top Chef (Bravo)

The Voice (NBC)

STORY: THR Emmy Roundtable: Matthew Weiner, Aaron Sorkin and Other Drama Showrunners Debate Violence in Hollywood and Being Control Freaks

OUTSTANDING HOST FOR A REALITY OR REALITY COMPETITION PROGRAM

WILL WIN: Tom Bergeron, Dancing With the Stars (ABC)

Anthony Bourdain, The Taste (ABC)

Cat Deeley, So You Think You Can Dance (Fox)

Heidi Klum, Tim Gunn, Project Runway (Lifetime)

Ryan Seacrest, American Idol (Fox)

Betty White, Betty White's Off Their Rockers (NBC)

* Tim Goodman recuses himself from reality television for lack of exposure to the material.