Feinberg Forecast: The Awards Landscape After Telluride and Toronto, Before New York

THR's awards analyst Scott Feinberg, who is on the fall film fest circuit along with the contenders, offers his best sense of a very competitive field at a very early date
Ellar Coltrane in "Boyhood," Felicity Jones in "The Theory of Everything" and Benedict Cumberbatch in "The Imitation Game"

Every week through the 87th Oscars on Feb. 22, 2015, The Hollywood Reporter's lead awards analyst Scott Feinberg will post an updated "Feinberg Forecast," wherein he presents a summary of major developments since the last update that helped to shape his current opinions and then lists his revised projections. For more about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, scroll to the bottom of this post.

Factoring into this week's charts...

Without further ado, here is this week's Feinberg Forecast …

Interstellar (Paramount)
Unbroken (Universal)
Boyhood (IFC Films)

The Imitation Game (The Weinstein Co.)
The Theory of Everything (Focus Features)

American Sniper (Warner Bros.)
Birdman (Fox Searchlight)
Foxcatcher (Sony Pictures Classics)

Gone Girl (20th Century Fox)
Into the Woods (Disney)

Major Threats
Wild (Fox Searchlight)
Inherent Vice (Warner Bros.)
Selma (Paramount)
Whiplash (Sony Pictures Classics)
Mr. Turner (Sony Pictures Classics)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Fox Searchlight)

Big Eyes (The Weinstein Co.)
A Most Violent Year (A24)
Dear White People (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)
Get On Up (Universal)
The Judge (Warner Bros.)

Long Shots
Chef (Open Road Films)
Men, Women & Children (Paramount)
Trash (Universal)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (20th Century Fox)

How to Train Your Dragon 2 (DreamWorks Animation/20th Century Fox)

Christopher Nolan (Interstellar)
Angelina Jolie (Unbroken)
Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

Alejandro G. Inarritu (Birdman)

Clint Eastwood (American Sniper)
Major Threats
Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
James Marsh (The Theory of Everything)
David Fincher (Gone Girl)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Inherent Vice)
Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

Mike Leigh (Mr. Turner)
Rob Marshall (Into the Woods)
J.C. Chandor (A Most Violent Year)
Jean-Marc Vallee (Wild)

Ava DuVernay (Selma)
Long Shots
Tim Burton (Big Eyes)

Jason Reitman (Men, Women & Children)
Damien Chazelle (Whiplash)
Ridley Scott (Exodus: Gods and Kings)

Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Michael Keaton (Birdman)

Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)

Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)

Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
Major Threats
Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice)
Jack O'Connell (Unbroken)
David Oyelowo (Selma)

Channing Tatum (Foxcatcher)

Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner)

Ben Affleck (Gone Girl)
Bill Murray (St. Vincent)
Chadwick Boseman (Get On Up)
Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year)
Matthew McConaughey (Interstellar)
Ellar Coltrane (Boyhood)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)
Mark Wahlberg (The Gambler)

Long Shots
Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Miles Teller (Whiplash)
Robert Downey Jr. (The Judge)

Christian Bale (Exodus: Gods and Kings)
Tom Hardy (Locke)
James McAvoy (Filth)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Kevin Costner (Black and White)
Richard Gere (Time Out of Mind)
Michael Shannon (99 Homes)

Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
Amy Adams (Big Eyes)
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)

Hilary Swank (The Homesman)
Major Threats
Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)
Marion Cotillard (The Immigrant)
Shailene Woodley (The Fault in Our Stars)

Jessica Chastain (The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby)

Emily Blunt (Into the Woods)
Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)
Anne Dorval (Mommy)

Long Shots
Anna Kendrick (The Last 5 Years)
Nicole Kidman (Queen of the Desert)
Michelle Monaghan (Fort Bliss)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Jennifer Aniston (Cake)
Jessica Chastain (Miss Julie)

Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice)
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)

J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
Robert Duvall (The Judge)
Major Threats
Edward Norton (Birdman)
Tom Wilkinson (Selma)
Ishihara (Unbroken)
Christoph Waltz (Big Eyes)
Andy Serkis (Dawn of the Planet of the Apes)
John Goodman (The Gambler)
Benicio Del Toro (Pablo Escobar: Paradise Lost)
Albert Brooks (A Most Violent Year)
Neil Patrick Harris (Gone Girl)

Long Shots
Benicio Del Toro (Inherent Vice)
Chris Pine (Into the Woods)
Garrett Hedlund (Unbroken)
Mark Ruffalo (Begin Again)

Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)

Laura Dern (Wild)
Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)

Major Threats
Julianne Moore (Maps to the Stars)
Emma Stone (Birdman)
Carrie Coon (Gone Girl)
Carmen Ejogo (Selma)

Sienna Miller (American Sniper)

Marion Bailey (Mr. Turner)
Jessica Chastain (Interstellar)
Anne Hathaway (Interstellar)

Katherine Waterston (Inherent Vice)
Jena Malone (Inherent Vice)
Reese Witherspoon (Inherent Vice)

Long Shots
Rene Russo (Nightcrawler)

Anna Kendrick (Into the Woods)
Vanessa Redgrave (Foxcatcher)
Kristen Stewart (Still Alice)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Adriana Barraza (Cake)
Holly Hunter (Manglehorn)
Octavia Spencer (Black and White)

Unbroken (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
The Imitation Game (Graham Moore)
The Theory of Everything (Anthony McCarten)
American Sniper (Jason Dean Hall)
Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Major Threats
Gone Girl (Gillian Flynn)
Into the Woods (James Lapine)

Wild (Nick Hornby)
Men, Women & Children (Jason Reitman, Erin Cressida Wilson)
The Fault in Our Stars (Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber)
The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby (Ned Benson)

Long Shots
Trash (Richard Curtis)
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (Dean DeBlois)

Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
Birdman (Armando Bo, Alexander Dinelaris, Nicolas Giabone, Alejandro G. Inarritu)

Foxcatcher (Dan Futterman, E. Max Frye)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
Mr. Turner (Mike Leigh)
Major Threats
Interstellar (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan)
A Most Violent Year (J.C. Chandor)
Wild Tales (Damian Szifron)
Selma (Ava DuVernay, Paul Webb)

Magic in the Moonlight (Woody Allen)
Chef (Jon Favreau)

Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)
Big Eyes (Scott Alexander, Larry Karaszewski)

Long Shots
Nightcrawler (Dan Gilroy)

Love Is Strange (Ira Sachs, Mauricio Zacharias)
Dear White People (Justin Simien)
The Immigrant (James Gray, Richard Menello)
Begin Again (John Carney)

How to Train Your Dragon 2 (DreamWorks Animation/20th Century Fox)
The LEGO Movie (Warner Bros.)

Big Hero 6 (Disney)
Song of the Sea (GKIDS)

The Tale of Princess Kaguya (GKIDS/Studio Ghibli)

Major Threats
The Boxtrolls (Focus Features)
Rio 2 (20th Century Fox)
Planes: Fire & Rescue (Disney)
The Book of Life (20th Century Fox)
Peabody & Sherman (DreamWorks Animation/20th Century Fox)
The Penguins of Madagascar (DreamWorks Animation/20th Century Fox)

The Boy and the World (GKIDS)
The Pirate Fairy (Disney)
When Marnie Was There (Studio Ghibli)
The Nut Job (Open Road Films/ReelD)
Postman Pat: The Movie (Shout! Factory)
Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return (Clarius Entertainment)

Life Itself (Magnolia)
Keep on Keepin' On (RADiUS-TWC)
Red Army (Sony Pictures Classics)

Finding Vivian Mayer (IFC Films)
The Case Against 8 (HBO Documentary Films)

Major Threats
Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me (Area 23a)
The Salt of the Earth (Sony Pictures Classics)
The Great Invisible (RADiUS-TWC)
Whitey: United States of America vs. James J. Bulger (Magnolia)
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon (RADiUS-TWC)
An Open Secret (self-distributed)
Tales of the Grim Sleeper (HBO)

The Overnighters (Drafthouse Films)
Merchants of Doubt (Sony Pictures Classics)
Rich Hill (The Orchard)
Point and Shoot (The Orchard)
Anita (Samuel Goldwyn Films)
Dancing in Jaffa (Sundance Selects)
The Galapagos Affair: Satan Came to Eden (Zeitgeist Films)
Documented (CNN Films)
Elaine Stritch: Shoot Me (IFC Films)
Jodorowsky's Dune (Sony Pictures Classics)

Warsaw Uprising: The Film (self-distributed)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (submission-dependent)
Wild Tales (Argentina)
Blue Is the Warmest Color (France)
Two Days, One Night (Belgium)

Winter Sleep (Turkey)
Coming Home (China)

Major Threats
Force Majeure (Sweden)
White God (Hungary)
Mommy (Canada)
The Wonders (Italy)
Leviathan (Russia)

Into the Woods (Colleen Atwood)
Maleficent (Anna Biedrzycka-Sheppard)
Inherent Vice (Mark Bridges)
Mr. Turner (Jacqueline Durran)

Big Eyes (Colleen Atwood)
Major Threats

Noah (Michael Wilkinson)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Milena Canonero)
The Immigrant (Patricia Norris)

The Theory of Everything (Steven Noble)
Selma (Ruth E. Carter)
Get On Up (Sharen Davis)
The Homesman (Lahly Poore)
Grace of Monaco (Gigi Lepage)

Unbroken (Louise Frogley)
The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies (Ann Maskrey, Bob Buck)
Interstellar (Mary Zophres)
The Imitation Game (Sammy Sheldon)
Belle (Anushia Nieradzik)
Madame Bovary (Christian Gasc, Valerie Ranchoux)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (Janty Yates)
Birdman (Albert Wolsky)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Suffragette (Jane Petrie)

"Lost Stars" (Begin Again)
"Everything Is Awesome" (The LEGO Movie)
"I'll Get You What You Want" (Muppets Most Wanted)
"What Is Love" (Rio 2)
"There and Back Again" (The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies)
Major Threats

"Let Me In" (The Fault in Our Stars)
"Not About Angels" (The Fault in Our Stars)

* * *

About the Feinberg Forecast

Scott has been forecasting the Oscars since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records of all awards pundits at doing so. His best showings came in 2006 and 2013, when he correctly called 21 out of 24 winners. He was the only pundit to project best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011) and acting noms for Silver Linings Playbook's Jacki Weaver (2012) and The Wolf of Wall Street's Jonah Hill (2013), among other long shots.

He factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings of hundreds of films each year), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others), and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

Twitter: @ScottFeinberg

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