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FEINBERG FORECAST: With Dust From Toronto Still Settling, a Look at the New Landscape

THR's awards analyst updates his picks after seeing "August: Osage County," "Dallas Buyers Club," "Mandela," "Rush" and other contenders north of the border.

Rush Film Still - H 2013

Every week through the 86th Oscars on March 2, 2014, The Hollywood Reporter's lead awards analyst Scott Feinberg will post an updated "Feinberg Forecast," which will reflect his latest take on the standings of the contenders in each of the major categories.

Scott has been forecasting the Oscars since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records at doing so. His best showings came in 2006 and 2013, when he correctly called 21 out of 24 winners. He was the only pundit to project best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011), among other long-shots.

PHOTOS: THR Honors 'Mandela' Stars Idris Elba, Naomie Harris at Swanky Toronto Fete

He factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings); publicly-available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues); historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated); precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others); and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

Without further ado, here is the latest Feinberg Forecast...

BEST PICTURE
Frontrunners
The Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount, 11/15, TBA, trailer)
American Hustle (Sony, 12/13, TBA, trailer)

Saving Mr. Banks (Disney, 12/20, PG-13, trailer)
12 Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight, 10/18, R, trailer)
Gravity (Warner Bros., 10/4, PG-13, trailer)
Captain Phillips (Sony, 10/11, TBA, trailer)
Lee Daniels' The Butler (The Weinstein Co., 8/16, PG-13, trailer)
All Is Lost (Lionsgate-Roadside Attractions, 10/18, PG-13, trailer)
Foxcatcher (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/20, TBA, TBA)
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (20th Century Fox, 12/25, TBA, trailer)

Major Threats
The Monuments Men (Sony, 12/18, TBA, trailer)
August: Osage County (The Weinstein Co., 11/8, TBA, trailer)
Blue Jasmine (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/26, PG-13, trailer)
Inside Llewyn Davis (CBS Films, 12/6, R, trailer)
Rush (Universal, 9/27, TBA, trailer)
Nebraska (Paramount, 11/22, TBA, TBA)
Dallas Buyers Club (Focus Features, 11/1, R, trailer)
Fruitvale Station (The Weinstein Co., 7/12, R, trailer)
Possibilities
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (The Weinstein Co., 11/29, TBA, trailer)
Her (Warner Bros., 11/20, TBA, trailer)
Blue Is the Warmest Color (Sundance Selects, 10/25, NC-17, TBA)
The Counselor (20th Century Fox, 10/25, TBA, TBA)
Philomena (The Weinstein Co., TBA, TBA, trailer)
Labor Day (Paramount, 12/25, TBA, TBA)
Before Midnight (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/24, R, trailer)
The Past (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/20, TBA, TBA)
The Book Thief (20th Century Fox, 11/15, TBA, trailer)
Long Shots
Prisoners (Warner Bros., 9/20, TBD, trailer)
Lone Survivor (Universal, 12/27, R, trailer)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Warner Bros., 12/13, TBA, trailer)
A Most Wanted Man (Lionsgate, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Out of the Furnace (Relativity Media, 12/6, TBA, trailer)
Mud (Lionsgate-Roadside Attractions, 4/26, PG-13, trailer)
The Place Beyond the Pines (Focus Features, 3/29, R, trailer)

Frances Ha (IFC Films, 5/17, R, trailer)
The Great Gatsby (Warner Bros., 5/10, PG-13, trailer
)

BEST DIRECTOR
Frontrunners
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks)
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
Major Threats
Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)
Lee Daniels (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
George Clooney (The Monuments Men)
J.C. Chandor (All Is Lost)
Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Ron Howard (Rush)
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
Spike Jonze (Her)
Possibilities
Ben Stiller (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)
Ryan Coogler (Fruitvale Station)
Jason Reitman (Labor Day)
Abdellatif Kechiche (Blue Is the Warmest Color)
Asghar Farhadi (The Past)
Richard Linklater (Before Midnight)
Ridley Scott (The Counselor)
Stephen Frears (Philomena)

John Wells (August: Osage County)
Jean-Marc Vallee (Dallas Buyers Club)
Long Shots
Peter Jackson (The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug)
Denis Villeneuve (Prisoners)
Justin Chadwick (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Peter Berg (Lone Survivor)
Brian Percival (The Book Thief)
Scott Cooper (Out of the Furnace)
Derek Cianfrance (The Place Beyond the Pines)
Jeff Nichols (Mud)

Noah Baumbach (Frances Ha)

BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
Robert Redford (All Is Lost)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyer's Club)

Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Idris Elba (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Major Threats
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)

Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
Channing Tatum (Foxcatcher) NEW
Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station)
Joaquin Phoenix (Her)
Possibilities
Ben Stiller (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)
Matt Damon (The Monuments Men)
Hugh Jackman (Prisoners)
Michael Fassbender (The Counselor)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (A Most Wanted Man)
Ethan Hawke (Before Midnight)
Ralph Fiennes (The Invisible Woman)
Long Shots
Christian Bale (Out of the Furnace)
Mark Wahlberg (Lone Survivor)
Chris Hemsworth (Rush)
Will Forte (Nebraska)

Benedict Cumberbatch (The Fifth Estate)
Daniel Radcliffe (Kill Your Darlings) NEW
Casey Affleck (Ain't Them Bodies Saints)

BEST ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)

Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Major Threats
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue Is the Warmest Color)

Kate Winslet (Labor Day)
Nicole Kidman (Grace of Monaco)
Berenice Bejo (The Past)
Amy Adams (Her)

Possibilities
Sophie Nelisse (The Book Thief)
Marion Cotillard (The Immigrant)
Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha)
Julie Delpy (Before Midnight)

Kristen Wiig (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)
Long Shots
Paulina Garcia (Gloria)
Naomi Watts (Diana)
Brie Larson (Short Term 12)
Shailene Woodley (The Spectacular Now)
Rooney Mara (Ain't Them Bodies Saints)
Amanda Seyfried (Lovelace)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Frontrunners
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Daniel Bruhl (Rush)

Major Threats
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Jeremy Renner (American Hustle)
Josh Brolin (Labor Day)
Harrison Ford (42)
John Goodman (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
George Clooney (Gravity)
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
Geoffrey Rush (The Book Thief)
Javier Bardem (The Counselor)
Possibilities
Chris Cooper (August: Osage County) NEW
Jake Gyllenhaal (Prisoners)
Matthew McConaughey (Mud)
Matthew McConaughey (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Tim Roth (Grace of Monaco)
Colin Farrell (Saving Mr. Banks)
Steve Coogan (Philomena)

John Goodman (The Monuments Men)
Jean Dujardin (The Monuments Men)

Long Shots
Sam Rockwell (The Way Way Back)
Casey Affleck (Out of the Furnace)
Andrew Dice Clay (Blue Jasmine)
Alec Baldwin (Blue Jasmine)
James Franco (Spring Breakers)
Ryan Gosling (The Place Beyond the Pines)
Bradley Cooper (The Place Beyond the Pines)

Ben Foster (Ain't Them Bodies Saints)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Naomie Harris (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Margo Martindale (August: Osage County)
Major Threats
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Lea Seydoux (Blue Is the Warmest Color)
Melissa Leo (Prisoners)
Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)
Felicity Jones (The Invisible Woman)

Possibilities
Carey Mulligan (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Juliette Lewis (August: Osage County)
Emily Watson (The Book Thief)
Rooney Mara (Her)

Jennifer Garner (Dallas Buyers Club)
Cameron Diaz (The Counselor)
Long Shots
Sarah Paulson (12 Years a Slave)
Zoe Saldana (Out of the Furnace)
Kristin Scott Thomas (Only God Forgives)
Portia Doubleday (Her)
Melonie Diaz (Fruitvale Station)
Sharon Stone (Lovelace)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
Foxcatcher (E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman)
Before Midnight (Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater)

Major Threats
The Monuments Men (George Clooney, Grant Heslov)
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Steve Conrad)
August: Osage County (Tracy Letts)
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (William Nicholson)
Possibilities
Labor Day (Jason Reitman)
Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope)
The Book Thief (Michael Petroni)
The Spectacular Now (Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber)
Long Shots
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Guillermo Del Toro, Fran Walsh)
The Invisible Woman (Abi Morgan)
Lone Survivor (Peter Berg)
A Most Wanted Man (Andrew Bovell)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
American Hustle (David O. Russell, Eric Singer)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)

Lee Daniels' The Butler (Danny Strong)
Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)
Major Threats
All Is Lost (J.C. Chandor)
Fruitvale Station (Ryan Coogler)
Nebraska (Bob Nelson)
Saving Mr. Banks (Kelly Marcel, Sue Smith)
Her (Spike Jonze)
Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack)

The Past (Asghar Farhadi)
Possibilities
Rush (Peter Morgan)
The Counselor (Cormac McCarthy)
The Way Way Back (Nat Faxon, Jim Rash)
Mud (Jeff Nichols)
The Place Beyond the Pines (Derek Cianfrance, Bob Coccio, Darius Marder)
Frances Ha (Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig)

Prisoners (Aaron Guzkowski)
Long Shots
Grace of Monaco (Arash Amel)
Out of the Furnace (Scott Cooper, Brad Inglesby)
Ain't Them Bodies Saints (David Lowery)
The Immigrant (James Gray, Richard Menello)
The Bling Ring (Sofia Coppola)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Frontrunners
Frozen (Disney, 11/27, TBA, TBA)
The Wind Rises (Studio Ghibili
, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Ernest & Celestine (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Monsters University (Disney-Pixar, 6/21, G, trailer)
The Croods (DreamWorks Animation
, 3/22, PG, trailer)
Major Threats
Despicable Me 2 (Universal, 7/3, PG, trailer)
Turbo (DreamWorks, 7/19, PG, trailer)
Epic (20th Century Fox, 5/24, PG,
trailer)
Planes (Disney, 8/9, PG,
trailer)
Walking with Dinosaurs 3D (20th Century Fox, 12/20, TBA,
trailer)
Khumba (Millennium Entertainment, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Possibilities
Escape from Planet Earth (The Weinstein Co., 2/15, PG, trailer)
Free Birds (Relativity Media, 11/1, TBA, trailer)
The Congress (Drafthouse Films, TBA, TBA,
trailer)
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 (Sony, 9/27, TBA, trailer)
A Letter to Momo (GKIDS, TBA, TBA,
trailer)
Long Shots
The Smurfs 2 (Sony, 7/31, PG, trailer)
The Legend of Sarila (Phase 4 Films, TBA, TBA,
trailer)
The Snow Queen (Vertical Entertainment, 1/3, NR,
trailer)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Frontrunners
20 Feet from Stardom (RADiUS, 6/14, PG-13, trailer)
Tim's Vermeer (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Stories We Tell (Roadside Attractions, 5/10, PG-13, trailer)
Blackfish (Magnolia, 7/19, PG-13, trailer)
The Unknown Known (RADiUS, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Major Threats
The Act of Killing (Drafthouse Films, 7/19, NR, trailer)
Dirty Wars (IFC Films, 6/7, NR, trailer)
Jodorowsky's Dune (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Cutie and the Boxer (RADiUS, 8/16, R, trailer)
Call Me Kuchu (Cinedigm, 6/14, NR, trailer)

We Steal Secrets: The Story of WikiLeaks (Focus World, 5/24, R, trailer)
After Tiller (Oscilloscope, 9/20, TBA, trailer)
Free Angela and All Political Prisoners (Lionsgate, 4/5, NR, trailer)
Salinger (The Weinstein Co., 9/6, TBA, trailer)
Possibilities
Blood Brother (Tugg, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Leviathan (Cinema Guild, 3/1, NR, trailer)
Rising from Ashes (First Run Features, 8/2, NR, trailer)
56 Up (First Run Features, 1/4, NR, trailer)
Salma (Women Make Movies, 1/?, TBA, trailer)

For No Good Reason (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, trailer)
God Loves Uganda (Variance Films, 10/11, TBA, trailer)
Terms and Conditions May Apply (Variance Films, 7/12, TBA, trailer)
Long Shots
The Armstrong Lie (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Muscle Shoals (Magnolia, 9/27, TBA, trailer)
Fire in the Blood (International Film Circuit, 9/6, NR, trailer)
Inequality for All (RADiUS, 9/27, PG, trailer)
Narco Cultura (Cinedigm, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Sound City (Roswell Films/Variance Films, 2/1, NR, trailer)
Informant (Music Box Films, 9/13, TBA, trailer  )
99%: The Occupy Wall Street Collaborative Film (Participant Media, TBA, TBA,   trailer)
Still Seeking U.S. Distribution
The Expedition to the End of the World (trailer)
Running from Crazy (
trailer)
Valentine Road

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (*submission not yet confirmed)
Frontrunners
The Past (Iran)*
The Great Beauty (Italy)
*
Gloria (Chile)
The Great Passage (Japan)
The Lunchbox (India)*
Others
Two Lives (Germany) NEW
The Hunt (Denmark)*
The Rocket (Australia)
Bethlehem (Israel)*
The Wall (Austria)
An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker (Bosnia & Herzegovina)
Omar (Palestine)*
Wadjda (Saudi Arabia)
The Disciple (Finland)
Ilo Ilo (Singapore)
Boy Eating the Bird's Food (Greece)
The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
In Bloom (Georgia)
Circles (Serbia)
Bad Destiny (Montenegro)
Soongava: Dance of the Orchids (Nepal)

Follow Scott on Twitter @ScottFeinberg for additional news and analysis.