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FEINBERG FORECAST: Emmy Projections for the Supporting Acting Categories (Drama)

Can a nominee win for a snubbed series? Will thesps from "Breaking Bad" win again an entire year after its finale? THR's awards analyst parses out the favorites.

Anna Gunn Aaron Paul - H 2014
Everett Collection
Anna Gunn and Aaron Paul

A version of this story first appeared in the Aug. 8 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA

JIM CARTER
Downton Abbey (PBS)
As Downton's uptight chief butler Mr. Carson, the English actor emerged from his also nominated show's massive ensemble to score his third nom in a row, but his work isn't as flashy as that of his more buzzy competition.

JOSH CHARLES
The Good Wife (CBS)
The sudden departure of his Will Gardner from the hit series had everyone talking and gives the two-time nominee his best shot at a trophy — though his series' snub doesn't bode well for his prospects.

PETER DINKLAGE
Game of Thrones (HBO)
His fourth straight nom for playing acerbic Tyrion Lannister came for a season many feel afforded the 2011 winner his best work in the series yet (he wisely submitted the "Laws of Gods and Men" episode), but it's rare to see a repeat win after three years.

MANDY PATINKIN
Homeland (Showtime)
The veteran has now bagged two straight noms for playing Saul, mentor to Claire Danes' Carrie, but the character spent season three mired in CIA politics and away from much of the action, and voters are clearly cooling on the show anyway.

AARON PAUL Likely winner!
Breaking Bad (AMC)
Paul's Jesse Pinkman was (spoiler alert!) Bad's last man standing in the series finale. His fifth nom here (only four people have more) could yield a third win, which would be unprecedented. In his favor: unlike last year, when he went home empty-handed, this year he's his show's sole rep in the category.

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JON VOIGHT
Ray Donovan (Showtime)

The 75-year-old Oscar winner has landed his third Emmy nom for his return to series TV as Mickey Donovan, the ex-con dad of his show's titular character. (His prior noms came in the TV miniseries or movie acting categories.) He already has a Golden Globe to show for his work in divisive season one.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

CHRISTINE BARANSKI
The Good Wife (CBS)
The 1995 Emmy winner for Cybill landed her 12th nom — her fifth in a row in this category (only five women have more), all for this show — for a season in which Diane Lockhart encountered plenty of drama. The shocking snub of her series, though, could be a bad omen.

JOANNE FROGGATT
Downton Abbey (PBS)
Her sweet, sympathetic housemaid Anna Bates struggled to cope with being raped in a darker-than-dark season of Downton. Her navigation of this tricky territory has landed her back in this category for a second time, after a one-year absence, but the presence of her legendary co-star in this category makes it hard to imagine a path to victory for her.

ANNA GUNN Likely winner!
Breaking Bad (AMC)
Last year's winner is in the running again, for a third straight season, this time for her work in Bad's final eight episodes, which many feel were the series' best. Her scenes in the now classic "Ozymandias" ep make her a near lock.

LENA HEADEY
Game of Thrones (HBO)
Headey landed her first nomination for a season in which her Cersei Lannister was mired in emotional crisis. The sole female acting nominee from Thrones (as Emilia Clarke was last year, in this same category), she won't be helped by the controversial scene in which her character was raped.

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CHRISTINA HENDRICKS
Mad Men (AMC)
For a season in which secretary-turned-partner Joan was markedly hardened, Hendricks scored a fifth straight nom in this category. Now the show’s sole female acting nom, she could become its first-ever acting winner, having submitted the episode in which she passes up an offer of comfort to hold out for true love.

MAGGIE SMITH
Downton Abbey (PBS)
Nearing her 80th birthday, the three-time Emmy winner, who's been Emmy-nominated for five straight years, four of them for Downton, continues to shine as the inimitable Dowager Countess. She last won two years ago, though, and multiple-year gaps between wins are uncommon.

Twitter: @ScottFeinberg