FEINBERG FORECAST: Emmy Projections for the Supporting Acting Categories (Comedy)
Will two "Modern Family" thespians cancel each other out? Do sketch series specialists even stand a chance? THR's awards analyst breaks it all down.
This story first appeared in a special Emmy issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine.
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY
The former Saturday Night Live funnyman landed one of this year's most surprising nominations — his first for acting — when his work on IFC's low-budget cult-favorite sketch series outdrew the likes of Modern Family's stalwart contenders Ed O'Neill and Eric Stonestreet.
ANDRE BRAUGHER — Likely winner!
Brooklyn Nine-Nine (Fox)
The sole acting nominee from the snubbed first-season series — which won the comedy and lead actor Golden Globes but was, apart from his nom, snubbed by the TV Academy — has two previous Emmy wins for his dramatic work on Homicide: Life on the Street and Thief and most recently was nominated for TNT's Men of a Certain Age.
Modern Family (ABC)
He has been nominated for all five years he has played everydad Phil Dunphy on ABC's hit sitcom, winning once, in 2011. He had some of his meatiest material this season, but Modern fans may want to finally laud Burrell's co-star Jesse Tyler Ferguson, who has never won.
This nom is the second in a row for the actor, who had more screen time last season. He's also a rising film star, appearing in the forthcoming Star Wars reboot and the Toronto selection This Is Where I Leave You. However, his series was snubbed, which doesn't bode well for his chances.
JESSE TYLER FERGUSON
Modern Family (ABC)
Nominated for all five years that the show has been on but still seeking his first win for his work as Mitchell, Ferguson may have his moment this year. The wedding of Cam (Stonestreet) and Mitchell was a much buzzed-about season-finale moment.
For his work as sycophantic political "bag man" Gary, he won here last year and could repeat, with a potential boost from Veep's series nom (its third). He didn't have a ton of range this season — until, that is, the hilarious finale, in which he and Julia Louis-Dreyfus are stuck in a bathroom together.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
The former Blossom star has landed three consecutive noms for her work on CBS' ratings bonanza and series nominee Big Bang, but she has yet to take home the prize for her work as Dr. Amy Farrah Fowler, the nerdette to three-time winner Jim Parsons' nerd.
Modern Family (ABC)
This is Bowen's fifth straight nomination for her role as harried homemaker Claire Dunphy on ABC's nominated hit show (which has won the comedy trophy four times). The skillful comedienne — up for Modern's laugh-out-loud lice episode — already has won this category twice (only four women have won three or more).
The former child star has been nominated in back-to-back years for her sharp-tongued aide, Amy. In season three, she offered numerous reminders that few on TV can deliver one-liners more bitingly. It won't hurt that she is the category's only HBO-backed nominee.
Few have the range (or Emmy pedigree) of this veteran, who was 4-for-6 before scoring two more noms this year — one for Mom, the other for guest work on the Showtime drama Masters of Sex. She already has won Critics' Choice awards for both this year.
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
The reigning queen of impersonations on variety series nominee SNL landed her first-ever noms this year: one for acting, the other for original music and lyrics for "Twin Bed." SNL-ers often get noms in supporting acting categories, but none has ever scored gold.
KATE MULGREW — Likely winner!
Orange Is the New Black (Netflix)
Best known for Star Trek: Voyager, the TV vet landed her first-ever nom for her now iconic prison cook, Red, in the buzzy nominated series Orange. Her deadpan musings on everything from prison politics to menopause could propel her to the top.