FEINBERG FORECAST: Latest Standings Prior to Hollywood's AFI Fest

As we enter November, THR's awards analyst suggests that 'Boyhood,' 'The Imitation Game' and 'Birdman' are the safest bets to land best pic Oscar noms
'A Most Violent Year '

Every week through the 87th Oscars on Feb. 22, 2015, The Hollywood Reporter's awards analyst Scott Feinberg will post an updated "Feinberg Forecast," wherein he presents a summary of major developments since the last update that helped to shape his current opinions and then lists his revised projections. For more about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, scroll to the bottom of this post.

Factoring into this week's Feinberg Forecast …

BEST PICTURE
Frontrunners
Boyhood (IFC Films)
The Imitation Game (The Weinstein Co.)
Birdman (Fox Searchlight)
American Sniper (Warner Bros.)

Unbroken (Universal)
Whiplash (Sony Pictures Classics)
The Theory of Everything (Focus Features)
Into the Woods (Disney)

Interstellar (Paramount)
Citizenfour (RADiUS-TWC, Participant Media, HBO)
Major Threats

Foxcatcher (Sony Pictures Classics)
Gone Girl (20th Century Fox)
Wild (Fox Searchlight)

Selma (Paramount)
A Most Violent Year (A24)

Chef (Open Road Films)
Possibilities
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Fox Searchlight)
Mr. Turner (Sony Pictures Classics)
Love Is Strange (Sony Pictures Classics)
Still Alice (Sony Pictures Classics)
Get On Up (Universal)
Nightcrawler (Open Road Films) NEW
Long Shots
Exodus: Gods and Kings (20th Century Fox)
Fury (Sony)
Inherent Vice (Warner Bros.)
Noah (Paramount)
The Judge (Warner Bros.)

BEST DIRECTOR
Frontrunners
Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
Alejandro G. Inarritu (Birdman)

Clint Eastwood (American Sniper)
Christopher Nolan (Interstellar)
Damien Chazelle (Whiplash)

Major Threats
Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
Angelina Jolie (Unbroken)

Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
David Fincher (Gone Girl)
Rob Marshall (Into the Woods)
Possibilities
Laura Poitras (Citizenfour)
James Marsh (The Theory of Everything)
Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Mike Leigh (Mr. Turner)
Ava DuVernay (Selma)
Long Shots
Paul Thomas Anderson (Inherent Vice)
J.C. Chandor (A Most Violent Year)
Jon Favreau (Chef)
Jean-Marc Vallee (Wild)
Ridley Scott (Exodus: Gods and Kings)

BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)

Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)

Jack O'Connell (Unbroken)
Major Threats

Miles Teller (Whiplash)
Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
Matthew McConaughey (Interstellar)

Ellar Coltrane (Boyhood)

David Oyelowo (Selma)

Chadwick Boseman (Get On Up)
Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner)
Bill Murray (St. Vincent)
Possibilities
Channing Tatum (Foxcatcher)
Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)
Kevin Costner (Black and White)
Mark Wahlberg (The Gambler)
Ben Affleck (Gone Girl)
James Corden (Into the Woods)
Long Shots
Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Robert Downey Jr. (The Judge)
Brad Pitt (Fury)
Christian Bale (Exodus: Gods and Kings)

Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice)
Bill Hader (The Skeleton Twins)

Brendan Gleeson (Calvary)

Al Pacino (The Humbling)

BEST ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)

Shailene Woodley (The Fault in Our Stars)

Major Threats
Amy Adams (Big Eyes)
Emily Blunt (Into the Woods)
Hilary Swank (The Homesman)
Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)
Jessica Chastain (The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Them)

Possibilities
Jennifer Aniston (Cake) NEW
Anne Hathaway (Interstellar)
Anne Dorval (Mommy)
Mia Wasikowska (Tracks)

Michelle Monaghan (Fort Bliss)

Long Shots
Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Belle)
Anna Kendrick (The Last 5 Years)

Greta Gerwig (The Humbling)
Scarlett Johansson (Under the Skin)

Jenny Slate (Obvious Child)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Frontrunners
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
Edward Norton (Birdman)

Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
Miyavi (Unbroken)

Major Threats
Tom Wilkinson (Selma)
John Goodman (The Gambler)

Christoph Waltz (Big Eyes)

Charlie Cox (The Theory of Everything)
Possibilities
Alec Baldwin (Still Alice)
Robert Duvall (The Judge)
Andy Serkis (Dawn of the Planet of the Apes)

Logan Lerman (Fury)
Long Shots
Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice)
Chris Pine (Into the Woods)
Garrett Hedlund (Unbroken)

Benicio Del Toro (Pablo Escobar: Paradise Lost)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Emma Stone (Birdman)

Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)

Laura Dern (Wild)
Major Threats
Sienna Miller (American Sniper)
Octavia Spencer (Black and White)
Jessica Chastain (Interstellar)

Carmen Ejogo (Selma)

Kristen Stewart (Still Alice)
Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)
Possibilities
Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer)

Julianne Moore (Maps to the Stars)
Marisa Tomei (Love Is Strange)

Rene Russo (Nightcrawler)
Emma Watson (Noah)
NEW
Long Shots
Marion Bailey (Mr. Turner)
Vanessa Redgrave (Foxcatcher)

Viola Davis (The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby)
Katherine Waterston (Inherent Vice)
Carrie Coon (Gone Girl)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
The Imitation Game (Graham Moore)
American Sniper (Jason Dean Hall)
Unbroken (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)

The Theory of Everything (Anthony McCarten)
Into the Woods (James Lapine)

Major Threats
Gone Girl (Gillian Flynn)
Wild (Nick Hornby)
Still Alice (Richard Glatzer, Wash Westmoreland)

Possibilities
Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson)
The Fault in Our Stars (Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber)
The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby (Ned Benson)

Long Shots
Men, Women & Children (Jason Reitman, Erin Cressida Wilson)
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (Dean DeBlois)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
Birdman (Armando Bo, Alexander Dinelaris, Nicolas Giabone, Alejandro G. Inarritu)

Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)
Foxcatcher (Dan Futterman, E. Max Frye)

Wild Tales (Damian Szifron)

Major Threats
Interstellar (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
Chef (Jon Favreau)
Mr. Turner (Mike Leigh)

A Most Violent Year (J.C. Chandor)

Possibilities
Love Is Strange (Ira Sachs, Mauricio Zacharias)
Nightcrawler (Dan Gilroy)

Selma (Ava DuVernay, Paul Webb)

Magic in the Moonlight (Woody Allen)
Fury (David Ayer)
Long Shots
Dear White People (Justin Simien)
Leviathan (Andrey Zvyagintsev, Oleg Negin)

Big Eyes (Scott Alexander, Larry Karaszewski)
Begin Again (John Carney)
The Immigrant (James Gray, Richard Menello)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Frontrunners
The Lego Movie (Warner Bros.)
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (DreamWorks Animation/20th Century Fox)

Big Hero 6 (Disney)
Song of the Sea (GKIDS)

The Boxtrolls (Focus Features)
Major Threats
The Tale of Princess Kaguya (GKIDS/Studio Ghibli)
Rio 2 (20th Century Fox)
Planes: Fire & Rescue (Disney)
The Book of Life (20th Century Fox)
Peabody & Sherman (DreamWorks Animation/20th Century Fox)
The Penguins of Madagascar (DreamWorks Animation/20th Century Fox)

Possibilities
Henry & Me (Reveal Animation Studios)
The Boy and the World (GKIDS)
The Pirate Fairy (Disney)
When Marnie Was There (Studio Ghibli)
The Nut Job (Open Road Films/ReelD)
Postman Pat: The Movie (Shout! Factory)
Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return (Clarius Entertainment)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Frontrunners
Citizenfour (RADiUS-TWC, Participant Media, HBO)
Life Itself (Magnolia/CNN Films)
Keep on Keepin' On (RADiUS-TWC)
Red Army (Sony Pictures Classics)

Last Days in Vietnam (American Experience Films)

Major Threats
Finding Vivian Maier (Sundance Selects)
Point and Shoot (The Orchard)
Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me (Area 23a)
Tales of the Grim Sleeper (HBO)
The Salt of the Earth (Sony Pictures Classics)
The Case Against 8 (HBO Documentary Films)
Happy Valley (Music Box Films)

Documented (CNN Films)
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon (RADiUS-TWC)
Whitey: United States of America vs. James J. Bulger (Magnolia)

Merchants of Doubt (Sony Pictures Classics)
Elaine Stritch: Shoot Me (IFC Films)
The Great Invisible (RADiUS-TWC)
Possibilities
The Internet's Own Boy: The Story of Aaron Swartz (FilmBuff)
The Dog (Cinedigm/Drafthouse Films) NEW
Virunga (Netflix)
E-Team (Netflix)
The Overnighters (Drafthouse Films)
Rich Hill (The Orchard)
Fed Up (RADiUS-TWC)
Anita (Samuel Goldwyn Films)
Dancing in Jaffa (Sundance Selects)
The Galapagos Affair: Satan Came to Eden (Zeitgeist Films)
Jodorowsky's Dune (Sony Pictures Classics)

Warsaw Uprising: The Film (self-distributed)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Frontrunners
Wild Tales (Argentina)
Force Majeure (Sweden)
Two Days, One Night (Belgium)
Ida (Poland)

Mommy (Canada)

Major Threats
Leviathan (Russia)
Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem (Israel)
White God (Hungary)

Human Capital (Italy)

Winter Sleep (Turkey)
Accused (Netherlands)
1001 Grams (Norway)
Saint Laurent (France)
Timbuktu (Mauritania) NEW
Possibilities
Tangerines (Estonia) NEW
The Liberator (Venezuela)
Sorrow and Joy (Denmark)
The Nightingale (China)
The Way He Looks (Brazil)
Living Is Easy Wth Eyes Closed (Spain)
Beloved Sisters (Germany)
The Light Shines Only There (Japan)
What Now? (Portugal)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Frontrunners

Birdman (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Interstellar (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Unbroken (Roger Deakins)

Mr. Turner (Dick Pope)
Inherent Vice (Robert Elswit)

Major Threats

The Theory of Everything (Benoit Delhomme)
The Imitation Game (Oscar Faura)
American Sniper (Tom Stern)
Gone Girl (Jeff Cronenweth)
Nightcrawler (Robert Elswit)
The Homesman (Rodrigo Prieto)

Wild (Yves Belanger)
A Most Violent Year (Bradford Young)
Possibilities
Boyhood (Lee Daniel, Shane Kelly)
Fury (Roman Vasyanov)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Robert Yeoman)
Foxcatcher (Greig Fraser)
Selma (Bradford Young)
Tracks (Mandy Walker)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (Dariusz Wolski)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Frontrunners
Into the Woods (Colleen Atwood)
Maleficent (Anna Biedrzycka-Sheppard)

Mr. Turner (Jacqueline Durran)
Big Eyes (Colleen Atwood)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Milena Canonero)

Major Threats

Noah (Michael Wilkinson)
The Immigrant (Patricia Norris)
The Theory of Everything (Steven Noble)
Selma (Ruth E. Carter)
Get On Up (Sharen Davis)
The Homesman (Lahly Poore)
Grace of Monaco (Gigi Lepage)

Inherent Vice (Mark Bridges)
Possibilities
Unbroken (Louise Frogley)
The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies (Ann Maskrey, Bob Buck)
Interstellar (Mary Zophres)
The Imitation Game (Sammy Sheldon)
Birdman (Albert Wolsky)
Belle (Anushia Nieradzik)
Madame Bovary (Christian Gasc, Valerie Ranchoux)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (Janty Yates)

BEST FILM EDITING
Frontrunners

Boyhood (Sandra Adair)
The Imitation Game (William Goldenberg)
Birdman (Douglas Crise, Stephen Mirrione)
Interstellar (Lee Smith)
Whiplash (Tom Cross)

Major Threats
Unbroken (Tim Squyres, William Goldenberg)
American Sniper (Joel Cox, Gary Roach)
Gone Girl (Kirk Baxter)
Wild (Martin Pensa, John McMurphy [Jean-Marc Vallee])
The Theory of Everything (Jinx Godfrey)
Foxcatcher (Jay Cassidy, Stuart Levy, Conor O'Neill)

The Grand Budapest Hotel (Barney Pilling)
Possibilities
Selma (Spencer Averick)
Fury (Dody Dorn)

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (William Hoy, Stan Salfas)
Inherent Vice (Leslie Jones)
Into the Woods (Wyatt Smith)
A Most Violent Year (Ron Patane)
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (John K. Carr)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Frontrunners

Into the Woods (TBD)
Maleficent (TBD)
Foxcatcher (TBD)

Major Threats

Guardians of the Galaxy (TBD)
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (TBD)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (TBD)
Get On Up (TBD)
Sin City: A Dame to Kill For (TBD)
X-Men: Days of Future Past (TBD)

Possibilities
Unbroken (TBD)
Selma (TBD)
Inherent Vice (TBD)
Noah (TBD)
Mr. Turner (TBD)
Fury (TBD)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Frontrunners

Unbroken (Alexandre Desplat)
The Theory of Everything (Johann Johannsson)
Interstellar (Hans Zimmer)
The Imitation Game (Alexandre Desplat)

How to Train Your Dragon 2 (John Powell)
Major Threats

Gone Girl (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross)
The Homesman (Marco Beltrami)
Fury (Steven Price)
Big Eyes (Danny Elfman)
Get On Up (Thomas Newman)
Inherent Vice (Jonny Greenwood)
Birdman (Antonio Sanchez)

Possibilities
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Alexandre Desplat)
Noah (Clint Mansell)
Foxcatcher (Rob Simonsen)
The Judge (Thomas Newman)
The Hundred-Foot Journey (A.R. Rahman)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (Alberto Iglesias)
Maleficent (James Newton Howard)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Frontrunners
"Lost Stars" (Begin Again)
"Everything Is Awesome" (The LEGO Movie)
"Mercy Is" (Noah)
"I'll Get You What You Want" (Muppets Most Wanted)
"What Is Love" (Rio 2)

Major Threats

"There and Back Again" (The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies)
"Let Me In" (The Fault in Our Stars)
"Not About Angels" (The Fault in Our Stars)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Frontrunners

Into the Woods (Dennis Gassner)
Interstellar (Nathan Crowley)

Unbroken (Jon Hutman)
Birdman (Kevin Thompson)
The Imitation Game (Maria Djurkovic)
Major Threats

Mr. Turner (Suzie Davies)
Inherent Vice (David Crank)
The Theory of Everything
(John Paul Kelly)
American Sniper (Charisse Cardenas, James J. Murakami)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Adam Stockhausen)

Possibilities
Fury (Andrew Menzies)
Gone Girl (Donald Graham Burt)
Selma (TBD)
Get On Up (Mark Ricker)
Foxcatcher (Jess Conchor)
Boyhood (Rodney Becker, Gay Studebaker)

* * *

About the Feinberg Forecast

Scott has been forecasting the Oscars since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records of all awards pundits at doing so. His best showings came in 2006 and 2013, when he correctly called 21 out of 24 winners. He was the only pundit to project best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011) and acting noms for Silver Linings Playbook's Jacki Weaver (2012) and The Wolf of Wall Street's Jonah Hill (2013), among other long shots.

He factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings of hundreds of films each year), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others), and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

Twitter: @ScottFeinberg

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