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OCT
9
3 YEARS

FEINBERG FORECAST: 'Marilyn' Divides, 'Ides' Disappoints, 'Hugo' May Be Monday's Surprise

THR's awards expert Scott Feinberg offers his latest take on the Oscar race.

Michelle Williams Marilyn Monroe movie still
The Weinstein Company

Among the things that factored into this week's projections (which appear further down on the page)...

  • Simon Curtis's My Week with Marilyn had its first press screening at the New York Film Festival this morning, and the early reviews are decidedly mixed. Moviefone's Christopher Rosen writes that Michelle Williams "is perfection" as Marilyn Monroe and compares the film to last year's Oscar winner The King's Speech. IndieWire's Eric Kohn, however, calls it a "tolerably superficial crowdpleaser" and says Williams gives a "one-note performance," merely "offering her best Marilyn voice and grin." Someone from The Playlist (there is no byline), meanwhile, falls somewhere in-between, suggesting that the film is "not terrible... engaging enough... and tolerable enough," and Williams gives "an admirable but certainly not spectacular performance... in a role she’s arguably not very suited for," but that it is Judi Dench who gives "a stand-out" turn. (He or she also gets the film's title wrong in the opening paragraph, though, calling it My Life with Marilyn, so I'm not sure how much stock I'd put in that assessment.)
  • George Clooney's The Ides of March opened on Friday and -- despite starring "It" guy Ryan Gosling and Clooney for stumping it on Charlie Rose and in an interview with Time, among other things -- delivered only so-so numbers at the box-office (roughly $10.4 million), finishing in second place way behind Real Steel and only slightly ahead of holdover Dolphin Tale. Less than enthusiastic reviews from the New York Times, Los Angeles Times, and Wall Street Journal didn't help its launch.
  • Multiple sources suggest that tomorrow night's "surprise screening" at the New York Film Festival will be Martin Scorsese's Hugo, which apprently is still not 100% finished but is far enough along that Scorsese and Paramount are willing to unveil it at the director's hometown fest in advance of its November 23 release date. (The Telluride Film Festival is well known for surprise screenings of this sort, but it is, to the best of my knowledge, an unprecedented occurence at the NYFF.)
  • The New York premiere of Emilio Estevez's The Way, which stars his father Martin Sheen, was an unusually hot ticket last Wednesday thanks to the attendance of former president Bill Clinton, a friend of Sheen's and of the founders of the organizations for which the premiere was raising funds. Clinton offered a hearty endorsement of the film ("I thank the people who made this beautiful movie"), which went into limited release on Friday and grossed more per theater -- $4012 in 33 theaters -- than all but four other films (Real Steel, Take Shelter, The Ides of March, and The Women on the 6th Floor).

BEST PICTURE
Frontrunners
War Horse (Disney, 12/25, TBA, teaser)
The Artist (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, TBA, trailer)
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Warner Brothers, 12/25, TBA, trailer)
J. Edgar (Warner Brothers, 11/11, R, trailer)
Moneyball (Columbia, 9/23, TBA, trailer)
Midnight in Paris (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/20, PG-13, trailer)
The Help (Disney, 8/12, PG-13, trailer)
The Descendants (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, R, trailer)
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (Sony, 12/21, TBA, trailer)
The Iron Lady (The Weinstein Company, 12/21, TBA, teaser)
Major Threats
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Focus Features, 12/9, TBA, trailer)
The Tree of Life (Fox Searchlight, 5/27, PG-13, trailer)
My Week With Marilyn (The Weinstein Company, 11/4, TBA, TBA)
The Ides of March (Sony, 10/14, TBA, trailer)
Drive (FilmDistrict, 9/16, R, trailer)
Carnage (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/16, R, trailer)
Like Crazy (Paramount Vantage, 10/28, PG-13, trailer)
50/50 (Summit, 9/30, R, trailer)
We Bought a Zoo (20th Century Fox, 12/23, TBA, trailer)
Possibilities
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows -- Part 2 (Warner Brothers, 7/15, PG-13, trailer)
The Adventures of Tintin (Paramount, 12/21, TBA, trailer)
Hugo (Paramount, 11/23, TBA, trailer)
Young Adult (Paramount, 12/9, TBA, TBA)
A Dangerous Method (Sony Pictures Classics, 11/23, TBA, trailer)
The Lady (Cohen Media Group, 12/?, TBA, trailer)
The Way (Producers Distribution Agency, 10/7, TBA, trailer)
Coriolanus (The Weinstein Company, 12/2, TBA, trailer)
Super 8 (Paramount, 6/10, PG-13, trailer)
In the Land of Blood and Honey (FilmDistrict, 12/23, TBA, TBA)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Take This Waltz

BEST DIRECTOR
Frontrunners
Steven Spielberg (War Horse)
Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar)
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Major Threats
Bennett Miller (Moneyball)
Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Roman Polanski (Carnage)
Tate Taylor (The Help)
George Clooney (The Ides of March)
Tomas Alfredson (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Phyllida Lloyd (The Iron Lady)
Possibilities
Steven Spielberg (The Adventures of Tintin)
Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
Nicolas Winding Refn (Drive)
Cameron Crowe (We Bought a Zoo)
Jason Reitman (Young Adult)
David Cronenberg (A Dangerous Method)
Simon Curtis (My Week With Marilyn)
Luc Besson (The Lady)
Ralph Fiennes (Coriolanus)
Angelina Jolie (In the Land of Blood and Honey)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Sarah Polley (Take This Waltz)

BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)
Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
George Clooney (The Descendants)
Michael Fassbender (Shame)
Major Threats
Woody Harrelson (Rampart)
Ryan Gosling (The Ides of March)
Ryan Gosling (Drive)
Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Anton Yelchin (Like Crazy)
Michael Shannon (Take Shelter)
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (50/50)
Thomas Horn (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Christoph Waltz (Carnage)
John C. Reilly (Carnage)
Daniel Craig (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Possibilities
Owen Wilson (Midnight in Paris)
Matt Damon (We Bought a Zoo)
Jeremy Irvine (War Horse)
Demian Bichir (A Better Life)
Michael Fassbender (A Dangerous Method)
Paul Giamatti (Win Win)
Martin Sheen (The Way)
Rhys Ifans (Anonymous)
Johnny Depp (The Rum Diary)
Sam Shepard (Blackthorn)
Tom Hardy (Warrior)
Eddie Redmayne (My Week with Marilyn)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Christopher Plummer (Barrymore)

BEST ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Viola Davis (The Help)
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)
Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)

Major Threats
Felicity Jones (Like Crazy)
Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
Charlize Theron (Young Adult)
Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method)
Jodie Foster (Carnage)
Kate Winslet (Carnage)
Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
Possibilities
Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia)
Mia Wasikowska (Jane Eyre)
Michelle Yeoh (The Lady)
Ellen Barkin (Another Happy Day)
Adepero Oduye (Pariah)
Rachel Weisz (The Whistleblower)
Vera Farmiga (Higher Ground)
Saoirse Ronan (Hanna)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Michelle Williams (Take This Waltz)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Frontrunners
Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)
Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Jim Broadbent (The Iron Lady)
Albert Brooks (Drive)

Major Threats
George Clooney (The Ides of March)
Jonah Hill (Moneyball)
Nick Nolte (Warrior)
Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method)
Tom Hanks (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Armie Hammer (J. Edgar)
John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
Brad Pitt (The Tree of Life)
Possibilities
Andy Serkis (Rise of the Planet of the Apes)
Patton Oswalt (Young Adult)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Ides of March)
Thomas Haden Church (We Bought a Zoo)
Jeffrey Wright (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Ezra Miller (We Need to Talk About Kevin)
Corey Stoll (Midnight in Paris)
Tom Hardy (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Terrence Howard (Winnie)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Berenice Bejo (The Artist)
Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)
Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
Carey Mulligan (Shame)

Major Threats
Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life)
Jessica Chastain (The Help)
Evan Rachel Wood (The Ides of March)
Judi Dench (J. Edgar)
Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Emily Watson (War Horse)
Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)
Bryce Dallas Howard (The Help)
Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
Possibilities
Judi Dench (My Week with Marilyn)
Naomi Watts (J. Edgar)
Scarlett Johansson (We Bought a Zoo)
Anna Kendrick (50/50)
Charlotte Gainsbourg (Melancholia)
Charlotte Rampling (Melancholia)
Judy Greer (The Descendants)
Kim Wayans (Pariah)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Judy Davis (The Eye of the Storm)
Charlotte Rampling (The Eye of the Storm)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Richard Curtis, Lee Hall (War Horse)
Eric Roth (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)

Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian (Moneyball)
Tate Taylor (The Help)
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash (The Descendants)
Major Threats
Steven Zaillian (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
George Clooney, Grant Heslov (The Ides of March)
Roman Polanski (Carnage)
Hossein Amini (Drive)
Cameron Crowe, Aline Brosh McKenna (We Bought a Zoo)
Possibilities
Pedro Almodovar (The Skin I Live In)
James Ellroy, Oren Moverman (Rampart)
John Logan (Hugo)
Christopher Hampton (A Dangerous Method)
Emilio Estevez (The Way)
John Logan (Coriolanus)
John Banville, Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
Dustin Lance Black (J. Edgar)
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Abi Morgan (The Iron Lady)
Major Threats
Adrian Hodges (My Week with Marilyn)
Drake Doremus, Ben York Jones (Like Crazy)
Will Reiser (50/50)
Diablo Cody (Young Adult)
Asghar Farhadi (A Separation)
Jeff Nichols (Take Shelter)
Sean Durkin (Martha Marcy Mae Marlene)
Possibilities
Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig (Bridesmaids)
Tom McCarthy, Joe Tiboni (Win Win)
Rebecca Frayne (The Lady)
J.J. Abrams (Super 8)
Dee Rees (Pariah)
Mike Mills (Beginners)
Angelina Jolie (In the Land of Blood and Honey)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Sarah Polley (Take This Waltz)

BEST ANIMATED FILM (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
Rango (Paramount, 3/4, PG, trailer)
The Adventures of Tintin (Paramount, 12/21, TBA, trailer)
Happy Feet 2 (Warner Brothers, 11/18, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Cars 2 (Disney, 6/24, TBA, trailer)
Arthur Christmas (Sony, 11/23, TBA, trailer)

Major Threats
Puss in Boots (DreamWorks, 11/4, TBA, trailer)
Rio (20th Century Fox, 4/15, G, trailer)
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chip-Wrecked (20th Century Fox, 12/11, TBA, TBA)
Winnie the Pooh (Disney, 7/15, G, trailer)
Possibilities
Kung Fu Panda 2 (DreamWorks, 5/26, PG, trailer)
The Smurfs (Sony, 7/29, TBA, trailer)
The Lion of Judah (Animated Family Films, 6/3, TBA, trailer)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
The Dreaming Machine
The Rabbi's Cat
Tales of the Night

BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
The Interrupters (The Cinema Guild, 7/29, TBA, trailer)
Project Nim (Roadside Attractions, 7/8, PG-13, trailer)
Buck (IFC Films, 6/17, PG, trailer)
Senna (Producers Distribution Agency, 8/12, PG-13, trailer)
If a Tree Falls (Oscilloscope, 6/22, TBA, trailer)
Major Threats
Hell and Back Again (Docurama Films, 10/5, TBA, trailer)
Cave of Forgotten Dreams (IFC Films, 4/29, G, trailer)
Into the Abyss (Sundance Selects, 11/11, TBA, TBA)
Koran by Heart (HBO Documentary Films, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Page One: Inside the New York Times (Magnolia, 6/24, TBA, trailer)
Tabloid (Sundance Selects, 7/15, R, trailer)
Being Elmo: A Puppeteer's Journey (Submarine Deluxe, TBA, trailer)
Magic Trip (Magnolia, 8/5, TBA, trailer)
Bill Cunningham New York (Zeitgeist Films, 3/16, TBA, trailer)
Possibilities
The Black Power Mixtape 1967-1975 (Sundance Selects, 9/9, TBA, trailer)
Pearl Jam Twenty (Abramorama, 9/20, R, trailer)
Bobby Fischer Against the World (HBO Documentary Films, TBA, TBA, TBA)
The Whale (Paladin, TBA, TBA, TBA)
The Bully Project (The Weinstein Company, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Revenge of the Electric Car (Westmidwest Productions, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Greatest Movie Ever Sold (Sony Pictures Classics, 4/22, PG-13, trailer)
African Cats (Disney, 4/22, G, trailer)
Life in a Day (National Geographic, 7/29, PG-13, trailer)
Still Seeking Domestic Distribution
Bombay Beach
The Carrier
Footnote