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FEINBERG FORECAST: The Oscar Landscape After Telluride, Before Toronto and New York

THR's awards analyst has just returned from the Telluride Film Festival, where he saw 13 films over 5 days, and will soon head off to the Toronto Int'l Film Festival.

12 Years a Slave
Benedict Cumberbatch and Chiwetel Ejiofor in '12 Years a Slave'

Every week through the 86th Oscars on March 2, 2014, The Hollywood Reporter's lead awards analyst Scott Feinberg will post an updated "Feinberg Forecast," which will reflect his latest take on the standings of the contenders in each of the major categories.

Scott has been forecasting the Oscars since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records at doing so. His best showings came in 2006 and 2013, when he correctly called 21 out of 24 winners. He was the only pundit to project best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011), among other long-shots.

He factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings); publicly-available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues); historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated); precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others); and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

Without further ado, here is the latest Feinberg Forecast...

BEST PICTURE
Frontrunners
The Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount, 11/15, TBA, trailer)
American Hustle (Sony, 12/13, TBA, trailer)
Captain Phillips (Sony, 10/11, TBA, trailer)
Gravity (Warner Bros., 10/4, PG-13, trailer)
12 Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight, 10/18, R, trailer)

Lee Daniels' The Butler (The Weinstein Co., 8/16, PG-13, trailer)
Foxcatcher (Sony Picutres Classics, 12/20, TBA, TBA)
All Is Lost (Lionsgate-Roadside Attractions, 10/18, PG-13, trailer)
August: Osage County (The Weinstein Co., 11/8, TBA, trailer)
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (20th Century Fox, 12/25, TBA, trailer)

Major Threats
Saving Mr. Banks (Disney, 12/20, PG-13, trailer)
The Monuments Men (Sony, 12/18, TBA, trailer)
Dallas Buyer's Club (Focus Features, 11/1, R, trailer)
Inside Llewyn Davis (CBS Films, 12/6, R, trailer)
Her (Warner Bros., 11/20, TBA, trailer)
Nebraska (Paramount, 11/22, TBA, TBA)
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (The Weinstein Co., 11/29, TBA, trailer)
Rush (Universal, 9/27, TBA, trailer)
The Book Thief (20th Century Fox, 11/15, TBA, trailer)
The Counselor (20th Century Fox, 10/25, TBA, TBA)
Possibilities
Labor Day (Paramount, 12/25, TBA, TBA)
Philomena (The Weinstein Co., TBA, TBA, trailer)
Fruitvale Station (The Weinstein Co., 7/12, R, trailer)
Blue Jasmine (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/26, PG-13, trailer)
Before Midnight (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/24, R, trailer)
Blue Is the Warmest Color (Sundance Selects, 10/25, NC-17, TBA)
The Past (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/20, TBA, TBA)
Grace of Monaco (The Weinstein Co., 11/27, TBA, TBA)
Lone Survivor (Universal, 12/27, R, trailer)
The Fifth Estate (DreamWorks, 10/18, TBA, trailer)

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Warner Bros., 12/13, TBA, trailer)
Long Shots
A Most Wanted Man (Lionsgate, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Diana (Entertainment One, TBA, TBA, TBA)

The Invisible Woman (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/25, TBA, TBA)
Parkland (Exclusive Releasing, 10/4, TBA, TBA)
Prisoners (Warner Bros., 9/20, TBD, trailer)
Out of the Furnace (Relativity Media, 12/6, TBA, trailer)
Mud (Lionsgate-Roadside Attractions, 4/26, PG-13, trailer)
The Place Beyond the Pines (Focus Features, 3/29, R, trailer)
The Spectacular Now (A24, 8/2, R,
trailer)
Frances Ha (IFC Films, 5/17, R, trailer  )  
The Great Gatsby (Warner Bros., 5/10, PG-13, trailer)
The Immigrant (The Weinstein Co., TBA, TBA, TBA)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Can a Song Save Your Life?
The Railway Man
Serena
Third Person

BEST DIRECTOR
Frontrunners
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)

Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Major Threats
Lee Daniels (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
J.C. Chandor (All Is Lost)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
George Clooney (The Monuments Men)
Spike Jonze (Her)
Ron Howard (Rush)
John Wells (August: Osage County)
Ben Stiller (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)
Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine)
Possibilities
John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks)
Jean-Marc Vallee (Dallas Buyers Club)
Ryan Coogler (Fruitvale Station)
Jason Reitman (Labor Day)
Ridley Scott (The Counselor)
Stephen Frears (Philomena)

Abdellatif Kechiche (Blue Is the Warmest Color)
Justin Chadwick (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Brian Percival (The Book Thief)
Asghar Farhadi (The Past)
Richard Linklater (Before Midnight)
Long Shots
Peter Jackson (The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug)
Bill Condon (The Fifth Estate)
Peter Berg (Lone Survivor)

Denis Villeneuve (Prisoners)
Ralph Fiennes (The Invisible Woman)
Scott Cooper (Out of the Furnace)
Peter Landesman (Parkland)
Olivier Dahan (Grace of Monaco)
Oliver Hirschbiegel (Diana)
Derek Cianfrance (The Place Beyond the Pines)
Jeff Nichols (Mud)
Anton Corbijn (A Most Wanted Man)
Noah Baumbach (Frances Ha)
Baz Luhrmann (The Great Gatsby)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Susanne Bier (Serena)
John Carney (Can a Song Save Your Life?)
Paul Haggis (Third Person)
Jonathan Teplitzky (The Railway Man)

BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
Robert Redford (All Is Lost)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Major Threats
Idris Elba (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyer's Club)
Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Joaquin Phoenix (Her)
Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station)

Ben Stiller (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)
Possibilities
George Clooney (The Monuments Men)
Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
Hugh Jackman (Prisoners)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Fifth Estate)
Michael Fassbender (The Counselor)
Ethan Hawke (Before Midnight)

Ralph Fiennes (The Invisible Woman)
Long Shots
Christian Bale (Out of the Furnace)
Mark Wahlberg (Lone Survivor)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (A Most Wanted Man)
Chris Hemsworth (Rush)
Will Forte (Nebraska)

Channing Tatum (Foxcatcher)
Casey Affleck (Ain't Them Bodies Saints)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Great Gatsby)
Chris O'Dowd (The Sapphires)
Tye Sheridan (Mud)
Terence Stamp (Unfinished Song)
Simon Pegg (The World's End)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Jim Broadbent (Le Weekend)
Bradley Cooper (Serena)
Colin Firth (The Railway Man)
James McAvoy (The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby)

BEST ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)

Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Major Threats
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue Is the Warmest Color)

Kate Winslet (Labor Day)
Nicole Kidman (Grace of Monaco)
Naomi Watts (Diana)
Berenice Bejo (The Past)
Amy Adams (Her)

Possibilities
Sophie Nelisse (The Book Thief)
Marion Cotillard (The Immigrant)
Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha)
Julie Delpy (Before Midnight)

Kristen Wiig (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)
Long Shots
Brie Larson (Short Term 12)
Rooney Mara (Ain't Them Bodies Saints)
Paulina Garcia (Gloria)
Shailene Woodley (The Spectacular Now)
Scarlett Johansson (Don Jon)
Amanda Seyfried (Lovelace)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Jessica Chastain (The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby)
Lindsay Duncan (Le Weekend)
Kirsten Dunst (The Two Faces of January)
Nicole Kidman (The Railway Man)
Keira Knightley (Can a Song Save Your Life?)
Jennifer Lawrence (Serena)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Frontrunners
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Josh Brolin (Labor Day)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Major Threats
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips) NEW
George Clooney (Gravity)
John Goodman (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Geoffrey Rush (The Book Thief)
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
Daniel Bruhl (Rush)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyer's Club)
Javier Bardem (The Counselor)
Tim Roth (Grace of Monaco)
John Goodman (The Monuments Men)
Matt Damon (The Monuments Men)
Jean Dujardin (The Monuments Men)

Possibilities
Harrison Ford (42)
Jeremy Renner (American Hustle)
NEW
Jake Gyllenhaal (Prisoners)
Matthew McConaughey (Mud)
Matthew McConaughey (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Colin Farrell (Saving Mr. Banks)
Steve Coogan (Philomena)
Sam Rockwell (The Way Way Back)
Benedict Cumberbatch (August: Osage County)
Daniel Bruhl (The Fifth Estate)

Casey Affleck (Out of the Furnace)
Long Shots
James Franco (Spring Breakers) NEW
Daniel Oyelowo (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Ben Foster (Lone Survivor)
Ryan Gosling (The Place Beyond the Pines)
Bradley Cooper (The Place Beyond the Pines)
Andrew Dice Clay (Blue Jasmine)
Alec Baldwin (Blue Jasmine)
Joel Edgerton (The Great Gatsby)
Tobey Maguire (The Great Gatsby)
Ben Foster (Ain't Them Bodies Saints)
Josh Gad (Jobs)
NEW
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Mark Ruffalo (Can a Song Save Your Life?)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Naomie Harris (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Major Threats
June Squibb (Nebraska)
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Lea Seydoux (Blue Is the Warmest Color) NEW
Melissa Leo (Prisoners)
Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)
Carey Mulligan (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Possibilities
Jennifer Garner (Dallas Buyers Club)
Felicity Jones (The Invisible Woman)
NEW
Margo Martindale (August: Osage County)
Juliette Lewis (August: Osage County)
Emily Watson (The Book Thief)
Rooney Mara (Her)
Sarah Paulson (12 Years a Slave)

Long Shots
Cameron Diaz (The Counselor)
Zoe Saldana (Out of the Furnace)
Kristin Scott Thomas (Only God Forgives)
Portia Doubleday (Her)
Melonie Diaz (Fruitvale Station)
Sharon Stone (Lovelace)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Hailee Steinfeld (Can a Song Save Your Life?)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
Foxcatcher (E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman)
August: Osage County (Tracy Letts)

Major Threats
The Monuments Men (George Clooney, Grant Heslov)
Before Midnight (Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater)

Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (William Nicholson)
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Steve Conrad)
Labor Day (Jason Reitman)

Possibilities
The Book Thief (Michael Petroni)
Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope)
The Fifth Estate (Josh Singer)
The Railway Man (Frank Cottrell Boyce, Andy Paterson)

The Spectacular Now (Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber)
Long Shots
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Guillermo Del Toro, Fran Walsh)
The Invisible Woman (Abi Morgan)
Parkland (Peter Landesman)
Lone Survivor (Peter Berg)
A Most Wanted Man (Andrew Bovell)
The Great Gatsby (Baz Luhrmann, Craig Pearce)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Serena (Christopher Kyle)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
American Hustle (David O. Russell, Eric Singer)
Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)
Inside Llewyn Davis (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)

Lee Daniels' The Butler (Danny Strong)
Major Threats
All Is Lost (J.C. Chandor)
Fruitvale Station (Ryan Coogler)
Nebraska (Bob Nelson)
Saving Mr. Banks (Kelly Marcel, Sue Smith)
Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack)
Rush (Peter Morgan)
The Counselor (Cormac McCarthy)
The Past (Asghar Farhadi)

Possibilities
The Way Way Back (Nat Faxon, Jim Rash)
Mud (Jeff Nichols)
The Place Beyond the Pines (Derek Cianfrance, Bob Coccio, Darius Marder)
Frances Ha (Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig)

Prisoners (Aaron Guzkowski)
Grace of Monaco (Arash Amel)
Long Shots
Diana (Stephen Jeffreys)
Out of the Furnace (Scott Cooper, Brad Inglesby)
Ain't Them Bodies Saints (David Lowery)
The Immigrant (James Gray, Richard Menello)
The Bling Ring (Sofia Coppola)
The World's End (Simon Pegg, Edgar Wright)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Frontrunners
Frozen (Disney, 11/27, TBA, TBA)
The Wind Rises (Studio Ghibili
, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Ernest & Celestine (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Monsters University (Disney-Pixar, 6/21, G, trailer)
The Croods (DreamWorks Animation
, 3/22, PG, trailer)
Major Threats
Despicable Me 2 (Universal, 7/3, PG, trailer)
Turbo (DreamWorks, 7/19, PG, trailer)
Epic (20th Century Fox, 5/24, PG,
trailer)
Planes (Disney, 8/9, PG,
trailer)
Walking with Dinosaurs 3D (20th Century Fox, 12/20, TBA,
trailer)
Khumba (Millennium Entertainment, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Possibilities
Escape from Planet Earth (The Weinstein Co., 2/15, PG, trailer)
Free Birds (Relativity Media, 11/1, TBA, trailer)
The Congress (Drafthouse Films, TBA, TBA,
trailer)
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 (Sony, 9/27, TBA, trailer)
A Letter to Momo (GKIDS, TBA, TBA,
trailer)
Long Shots
The Smurfs 2 (Sony, 7/31, PG, trailer)
The Legend of Sarila (Phase 4 Films, TBA, TBA,
trailer)
The Snow Queen (Vertical Entertainment, 1/3, NR,
trailer)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Frontrunners
20 Feet from Stardom (RADiUS, 6/14, PG-13, trailer)
Tim's Vermeer (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, TBA) NEW
Stories We Tell (Roadside Attractions, 5/10, PG-13, trailer)
Blackfish (Magnolia, 7/19, PG-13, trailer)
The Unknown Known (RADiUS, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Major Threats
The Act of Killing (Drafthouse Films, 7/19, NR, trailer)
Dirty Wars (IFC Films, 6/7, NR, trailer)
Jodorowsky's Dune (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Cutie and the Boxer (RADiUS, 8/16, R, trailer)
Call Me Kuchu (Cinedigm, 6/14, NR, trailer)

We Steal Secrets: The Story of WikiLeaks (Focus World, 5/24, R, trailer)
Salinger (The Weinstein Co., 9/6, TBA, trailer)
After Tiller (Oscilloscope, 9/20, TBA, trailer)

Free Angela and All Political Prisoners (Lionsgate, 4/5, NR, trailer)
Possibilities
Blood Brother (Tugg, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Leviathan (Cinema Guild, 3/1, NR, trailer)
Rising from Ashes (First Run Features, 8/2, NR, trailer)
56 Up (First Run Features, 1/4, NR, trailer)
Salma (Women Make Movies, 1/?, TBA, trailer)

For No Good Reason (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, trailer)
God Loves Uganda (Variance Films, 10/11, TBA, trailer)
Terms and Conditions May Apply (Variance Films, 7/12, TBA, trailer)
Long Shots
Muscle Shoals (Magnolia, 9/27, TBA, trailer)
The Armstrong Lie (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Fire in the Blood (International Film Circuit, 9/6, NR, trailer)
Inequality for All (RADiUS, 9/27, PG, trailer)
Narco Cultura (Cinedigm, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Sound City (Roswell Films/Variance Films, 2/1, NR, trailer)
Informant (Music Box Films, 9/13, TBA, trailer) NEW
99%: The Occupy Wall Street Collaborative Film (Participant Media, TBA, TBA, trailer) NEW
Still Seeking U.S. Distribution
The Expedition to the End of the World (trailer)
Running from Crazy (
trailer)
Valentine Road

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (*submission not yet confirmed)
Frontrunners
The Past (Iran)*
Like Father, Like Son (Japan)*
The Great Beauty (Italy)
*
Gloria (Chile)*
The Lunchbox (India)*
Major Threats
The Hunt (Denmark) NEW
Bethlehem (Israel)* NEW
The Wall (Austria) NEW
An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker (Bosnia & Herzegovina)
Omar (Palestine)*
The Disciple (Finland)
NEW
Wadjda (Saudi Arabia)
Possibilities
Ilo Ilo (Singapore) NEW
Boy Eating the Bird's Food (Greece)
The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
In Bloom (Georgia) NEW
Circles (Serbia) NEW
Bad Destiny (Montenegro) NEW
Long Shots
Soongava: Dance of the Orchids (Nepal)

Follow Scott on Twitter @ScottFeinberg for additional news and analysis.