FEINBERG FORECAST: The Race Takes Shape a Week Ahead of the New York Film Festival

THR's awards analyst Scott Feinberg offers his latest Oscar projections, now featuring several categories not included in last week's forecast
Joel Ryan/Invision/AP
Marion Cotillard

Every week through the 87th Oscars on Feb. 22, 2015, The Hollywood Reporter's lead awards analyst Scott Feinberg will post an updated "Feinberg Forecast," wherein he presents a summary of major developments since the last update that helped to shape his current opinions and then lists his revised projections. For more about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, scroll to the bottom of this post.

Factoring into this week's Feinberg Forecast (to which the best cinematography, best film editing, best makeup and hairstyling, best original score and best production design categories have been added)...

BEST PICTURE
Frontrunners
Interstellar (Paramount)
Unbroken (Universal)
Boyhood (IFC Films)

The Imitation Game (The Weinstein Co.)
The Theory of Everything (Focus Features)

American Sniper (Warner Bros.)
Birdman (Fox Searchlight)
Foxcatcher (Sony Pictures Classics)

Gone Girl (20th Century Fox)
Into the Woods (Disney)
Major Threats
Selma (Paramount)
Inherent Vice (Warner Bros.)
Wild (Fox Searchlight)

The Grand Budapest Hotel (Fox Searchlight)
Mr. Turner (Sony Pictures Classics)

Possibilities
Whiplash (Sony Pictures Classics)
A Most Violent Year (A24)
Get On Up (Universal)
Chef (Open Road Films)
The Judge (Warner Bros.)

Long Shots
Fury (Sony) NEW
Big Eyes (The Weinstein Co.)
Dear White People (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (20th Century Fox)

How to Train Your Dragon 2 (DreamWorks Animation/20th Century Fox)

BEST DIRECTOR
Frontrunners
Christopher Nolan (Interstellar)
Angelina Jolie (Unbroken)
Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

Alejandro G. Inarritu (Birdman)

Clint Eastwood (American Sniper)
Major Threats
Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)
Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
James Marsh (The Theory of Everything)
David Fincher (Gone Girl)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Inherent Vice)
Possibilities
Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

Mike Leigh (Mr. Turner)
Rob Marshall (Into the Woods)
Ava DuVernay (Selma)
J.C. Chandor (A Most Violent Year)
Long Shots
Jean-Marc Vallee (Wild)
Damien Chazelle (Whiplash)
David Ayer (Fury)
NEW
Tim Burton (Big Eyes)
Ridley Scott (Exodus: Gods and Kings)

BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Michael Keaton (Birdman)

Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)

Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)

Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
Major Threats

Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice)
David Oyelowo (Selma)
Jack O'Connell (Unbroken)

Channing Tatum (Foxcatcher)

Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner)

Ben Affleck (Gone Girl)
Possibilities
Bill Murray (St. Vincent)
Chadwick Boseman (Get On Up)
Oscar Isaac (A Most Violent Year)
Matthew McConaughey (Interstellar)
Ellar Coltrane (Boyhood)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)

Long Shots
Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Miles Teller (Whiplash)
Mark Wahlberg (The Gambler)
Robert Downey Jr. (The Judge)

Christian Bale (Exodus: Gods and Kings)
Tom Hardy (Locke)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Kevin Costner (Black and White)
Richard Gere (Time Out of Mind)

BEST ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)

Amy Adams (Big Eyes)
Major Threats
Hilary Swank (The Homesman)
Shailene Woodley (The Fault in Our Stars)
Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)

Marion Cotillard (The Immigrant)
Possibilities
Jessica Chastain (The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Them)
Michelle Monaghan (Fort Bliss)

Emily Blunt (Into the Woods)
Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)
Long Shots
Anne Dorval (Mommy)
Anna Kendrick (The Last 5 Years)
Nicole Kidman (Queen of the Desert)
Mia Wasikowska (Tracks)
NEW
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Jennifer Aniston (Cake)
Jessica Chastain (Miss Julie)

Jennifer Connelly (Shelter) NEW

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Frontrunners
Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice)
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
Edward Norton (Birdman)
Major Threats
Tom Wilkinson (Selma)
Takamasa
Ishihara (Unbroken)
Robert Duvall (The Judge)
Andy Serkis (Dawn of the Planet of the Apes)

Possibilities
John Goodman (The Gambler)
Benicio Del Toro (Pablo Escobar: Paradise Lost)
Albert Brooks (A Most Violent Year)
Christoph Waltz (Big Eyes)

Long Shots
Logan Lerman (Fury) NEW
Benicio Del Toro (Inherent Vice)
Neil Patrick Harris (Gone Girl)

Chris Pine (Into the Woods)
Garrett Hedlund (Unbroken)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)

Laura Dern (Wild)
Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)

Emma Stone (Birdman)

Major Threats
Julianne Moore (Maps to the Stars)
Katherine Waterston (Inherent Vice)
Carrie Coon (Gone Girl)

Carmen Ejogo (Selma)
Marion Bailey (Mr. Turner)

Possibilities
Sienna Miller (American Sniper)
Jena Malone (Inherent Vice)
Reese Witherspoon (Inherent Vice)

Jessica Chastain (Interstellar)
Anne Hathaway (Interstellar)

Long Shots
Rene Russo (Nightcrawler)

Anna Kendrick (Into the Woods)
Vanessa Redgrave (Foxcatcher)
Kristen Stewart (Still Alice)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Adriana Barraza (Cake)
Octavia Spencer (Black and White)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Unbroken (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
The Imitation Game (Graham Moore)
The Theory of Everything (Anthony McCarten)
American Sniper (Jason Dean Hall)
Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Major Threats
Gone Girl (Gillian Flynn)
Into the Woods (James Lapine)

Wild (Nick Hornby)
Possibilities
The Fault in Our Stars (Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber)
Men, Women & Children (Jason Reitman, Erin Cressida Wilson)
The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby (Ned Benson)

Long Shots
Trash (Richard Curtis)
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (Dean DeBlois)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
Birdman (Armando Bo, Alexander Dinelaris, Nicolas Giabone, Alejandro G. Inarritu)

Foxcatcher (Dan Futterman, E. Max Frye)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
Mr. Turner (Mike Leigh)
Major Threats
Interstellar (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan)
Wild Tales (Damian Szifron)
Selma (Ava DuVernay, Paul Webb)
Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)

A Most Violent Year (J.C. Chandor)

Possibilities
Magic in the Moonlight (Woody Allen)
Chef (Jon Favreau)
Fury (David Ayer)
NEW
Nightcrawler (Dan Gilroy)
Big Eyes (Scott Alexander, Larry Karaszewski)

Long Shots
Love Is Strange (Ira Sachs, Mauricio Zacharias)
Dear White People (Justin Simien)
The Immigrant (James Gray, Richard Menello)
Begin Again (John Carney)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Frontrunners
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (DreamWorks Animation/20th Century Fox)
The LEGO Movie (Warner Bros.)

Big Hero 6 (Disney)
Song of the Sea (GKIDS)

The Tale of Princess Kaguya (GKIDS/Studio Ghibli)

Major Threats
The Boxtrolls (Focus Features)
Rio 2 (20th Century Fox)
Planes: Fire & Rescue (Disney)
The Book of Life (20th Century Fox)
Peabody & Sherman (DreamWorks Animation/20th Century Fox)
The Penguins of Madagascar (DreamWorks Animation/20th Century Fox)

Possibilities
Henry & Me (Reveal Animation Studios) NEW
The Boy and the World (GKIDS)
The Pirate Fairy (Disney)
When Marnie Was There (Studio Ghibli)
The Nut Job (Open Road Films/ReelD)
Postman Pat: The Movie (Shout! Factory)
Legends of Oz: Dorothy's Return (Clarius Entertainment)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Frontrunners
Life Itself (Magnolia)
CITIZENFOUR (RADiUS-TWC, Participant Media, HBO) NEW
Keep on Keepin' On (RADiUS-TWC)
Red Army (Sony Pictures Classics)

Finding Vivian Mayer (IFC Films)

Major Threats
The Case Against 8 (HBO Documentary Films)
Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me (Area 23a)
The Salt of the Earth (Sony Pictures Classics)
The Great Invisible (RADiUS-TWC)
Whitey: United States of America vs. James J. Bulger (Magnolia)
Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon (RADiUS-TWC)
An Open Secret (self-distributed)
Tales of the Grim Sleeper (HBO)

The Overnighters (Drafthouse Films)
Merchants of Doubt (Sony Pictures Classics)
Possibilities
Rich Hill (The Orchard)
Point and Shoot (The Orchard)
Fed Up (RADiUS-TWC)
Anita (Samuel Goldwyn Films)
Dancing in Jaffa (Sundance Selects)
The Galapagos Affair: Satan Came to Eden (Zeitgeist Films)
Documented (CNN Films)
Elaine Stritch: Shoot Me (IFC Films)
Jodorowsky's Dune (Sony Pictures Classics)

Warsaw Uprising: The Film (self-distributed)
Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Happy Valley

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM (submission-dependent)
Frontrunners
Wild Tales (Argentina)
Blue Is the Warmest Color (France)
Two Days, One Night (Belgium)

Winter Sleep (Turkey)
Coming Home (China)

Major Threats
The Way He Looks (Brazil) NEW
Force Majeure (Sweden)
White God (Hungary)
Mommy (Canada)
Ida (Poland)
NEW
The Wonders (Italy)
Leviathan (Russia)

Possibilities
What Now? (Portugal) NEW
Cantinflas (Mexico) NEW

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Frontrunners

Interstellar (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Birdman (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Unbroken (Roger Deakins)
Inherent Vice (Robert Elswit)

The Theory of Everything (Benoit Delhomme)
Major Threats

The Imitation Game (Oscar Faura)
Gone Girl (Jeff Cronenweth)
American Sniper (Tom Stern)
Mr. Turner (Dick Pope)
Nightcrawler (Robert Elswit)
Into the Woods (Dion Beebe)
Wild (Yves Belanger)
The Homesman (Rodrigo Prieto)

Possibilities
A Most Violent Year (Bradford Young)
Fury (Roman Vasyanov)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Robert Yeoman)
Boyhood (Lee Daniel, Shane Kelly)
Foxcatcher (Greig Fraser)
Selma (Bradford Young)
Tracks (Mandy Walker)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (Dariusz Wolski)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Frontrunners
Into the Woods (Colleen Atwood)
Maleficent (Anna Biedrzycka-Sheppard)
Inherent Vice (Mark Bridges)
Mr. Turner (Jacqueline Durran)

Big Eyes (Colleen Atwood)
Major Threats

Noah (Michael Wilkinson)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Milena Canonero)
The Immigrant (Patricia Norris)

The Theory of Everything (Steven Noble)
Selma (Ruth E. Carter)
Get On Up (Sharen Davis)
The Homesman (Lahly Poore)
Grace of Monaco (Gigi Lepage)

Possibilities
Unbroken (Louise Frogley)
The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies (Ann Maskrey, Bob Buck)
Interstellar (Mary Zophres)
The Imitation Game (Sammy Sheldon)
Birdman (Albert Wolsky)
Belle (Anushia Nieradzik)
Madame Bovary (Christian Gasc, Valerie Ranchoux)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (Janty Yates)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution
Suffragette (Jane Petrie)

BEST FILM EDITING
Frontrunners

Interstellar (Lee Smith)
Boyhood (Sandra Adair)
The Imitation Game (William Goldenberg)
Unbroken (Tim Squyres)
Birdman (Douglas Crise, Stephen Mirrione)
Major Threats
American Sniper (Joel Cox, Gary Roach)
Gone Girl (Kirk Baxter)
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (William Hoy, Stan Salfas)
Wild (Martin Pensa, John McMurphy [Jean-Marc Vallee])
The Theory of Everything (Jinx Godfrey)
Foxcatcher (Jay Cassidy, Stuart Levy, Conor O'Neill)
Selma (Spencer Averick)

Fury (Dody Dorn)
Possibilities
Inherent Vice (Leslie Jones)
Into the Woods (Wyatt Smith)
A Most Violent Year (Ron Patane)
Whiplash (Tom Cross)
Mr. Turner (Jon Gregory)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Barney Pilling)
Edge of Tomorrow (James Herbert)
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (John K. Carr)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Frontrunners

Into the Woods (TBD)
Maleficent (TBD)
Foxcatcher (TBD)

Major Threats
Guardians of the Galaxy (TBD)
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (TBD)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (TBD)
Get On Up (TBD)
Sin City: A Dame to Kill For (TBD)
X-Men: Days of Future Past (TBD)

Possibilities
Unbroken (TBD)
Selma (TBD)
Inherent Vice (TBD)
Noah (TBD)
Mr. Turner (TBD)
Fury (TBD)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Frontrunners

Interstellar (Hans Zimmer)
Unbroken (Alexandre Desplat)
The Theory of Everything (Johann Johannsson)
The Imitation Game (Alexandre Desplat)
Gone Girl (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross)
Major Threats
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (John Powell)
Big Eyes (Danny Elfman)
The Homesman (Marco Beltrami)
Fury (Steven Price)
Get on Up (Thomas Newman)
Inherent Vice (Jonny Greenwood)

Possibilities
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Alexandre Desplat)
Noah (Clint Mansell)
Foxcatcher (Rob Simonsen)
The Judge (Thomas Newman)
The Hundred-Foot Journey (A.R. Rahman)
Exodus: Gods and Kings (Alberto Iglesias)
Maleficent (James Newton Howard)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Frontrunners
"Lost Stars" (Begin Again)
"Everything Is Awesome" (The LEGO Movie)
"I'll Get You What You Want" (Muppets Most Wanted)
"What Is Love" (Rio 2)
"There and Back Again" (The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies)
Major Threats

"Mercy Is" (Noah)
NEW
"Let Me In" (The Fault in Our Stars)
"Not About Angels" (The Fault in Our Stars)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Frontrunners

Interstellar (Nathan Crowley)
Unbroken (Jon Hutman)
Birdman (Kevin Thompson)
The Imitation Game (Maria Djurkovic)
Into the Woods (Dennis Gassner)
Major Threats
Inherent Vice (David Crank)
The Theory of Everything
(John Paul Kelly)
American Sniper (Charisse Cardenas, James J. Murakami)
Mr. Turner (Suzie Davies)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Adam Stockhausen)
Fury (Andrew Menzies)

Possibilities
Gone Girl (Donald Graham Burt)
Selma (TBD)
Get On Up (Mark Ricker)
Foxcatcher (Jess Conchor)
Boyhood (Rodney Becker, Gay Studebaker)

* * *

About the Feinberg Forecast

Scott has been forecasting the Oscars since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records of all awards pundits at doing so. His best showings came in 2006 and 2013, when he correctly called 21 out of 24 winners. He was the only pundit to project best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011) and acting noms for Silver Linings Playbook's Jacki Weaver (2012) and The Wolf of Wall Street's Jonah Hill (2013), among other long shots.

He factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings of hundreds of films each year), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others), and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

Twitter: @ScottFeinberg

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