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2 YEARS

FEINBERG FORECAST: Scott Feinberg's Initial Assessment of the Oscars Landscape

THR's awards analyst examines the Oscar landscape in the aftermath of the Venice/Telluride/Toronto fests, and on the eve of the New York/London fests.

Lincoln film still - Daniel Day Lewis
Courtesy of Dreamworks
Lincoln

Every Sunday through the Oscars on Feb. 24, The Hollywood Reporter's lead awards analyst Scott Feinberg will post an updated "Feinberg Forecast," which will reflect his latest take on the standings of the contenders in each of the major categories.

Scott has been forecasting the Oscars since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records at doing so. His best showings came in 2004 (when he correctly called 20/24 winners) and 2006 (when he correctly called 21/24 winners). He was the only pundit to project long-shot best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009), and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011).

He factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings at festivals or elsewhere); publicly-available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters, and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues); historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated with the Academy); precursor awards (some awards groups have better track records than others of correlating with the Academy); and regular conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers, and awards voters).

Without further ado, here is the first Feinberg Forecast of the 2012-2013 awards season...

BEST PICTURE
Frontrunners
Lincoln (DreamWorks, 11/9, TBA, trailer)
Argo (Warner Bros., 10/12, R, trailer)
Zero Dark Thirty (Sony, 12/19, TBA, teaser)
Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Co., 11/21, TBA, trailer)
Life of Pi (20th Century Fox, 11/21, TBA, trailer)
Django Unchained (The Weinstein Co., 12/25, R, trailer)

Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight, 6/27, PG-13, trailer)
Les Miserables (Universal, 12/14, TBA, trailer)
The Master (The Weinstein Co., 9/14, R, trailer)
Promised Land (Focus Features, 12/28, TBA, TBA)
Major Threats
Flight (Paramount, 11/2, TBA, trailer)
The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Bros., 7/20, PG-13, trailer)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros., 12/14, TBA,
trailer)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight, 5/4, PG-13, trailer)
Amour (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/19, TBA, trailer)
Moonrise Kingdom (Focus Features, 5/25, PG-13, trailer)
Cloud Atlas (Warner Bros., 10/26, R, trailer)
The Sessions (Fox Searchlight, 10/19, TBA, trailer)
Trouble with the Curve (Warner Bros., 9/21, PG-13, trailer)
The Impossible (Summit, 12/21, PG-13, trailer)

Possibilities
Rust and Bone (Sony Pictures Classics, 11/23, TBA, trailer)
Anna Karenina (Focus Features, 11/16, TBA, trailer)
Not Fade Away (Paramount, 12/21, TBA, TBA)
The Hunger Games (Lionsgate, 3/23, PG-13, trailer)
The Avengers (Disney, 5/4, PG-13, trailer)
Arbitrage (Roadside Attractions, 9/14, R, trailer)
The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Summit, 9/14, TBA, trailer)
Hyde Park on Hudson (Focus Features, 12/7, R, trailer)
On the Road (IFC Films, 12/21, R, trailer)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Out of the Furnace (Relativity Media, TBA, TBA, TBA)
The Sapphires (The Weinstein Co., TBA, TBA, trailer)

BEST DIRECTOR
Frontrunners
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
Ben Affleck (Argo)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Michael Haneke (Amour)

Major Threats
Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)

Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
Gus Vant Sant (The Promised Land)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Robert Zemeckis (Flight)
Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight Rises)
Peter Jackson (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
John Madden (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom)
Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski (Cloud Atlas)

Possibilities
Ben Lewin (The Sessions)
Robert Lorenz (Trouble the Curve)
Juan Antonio Bayona (The Impossible)
Jacques Audiard (Rust and Bone)
Joe Wright (Anna Karenina)
David Chase (Not Fade Away)
Gary Ross (The Hunger Games)
Joss Whedon (The Avengers)
Nicholas Jarecki (Arbitrage)
Stephen Chbosky (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)
Roger Michell (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Walter Salles (On the Road)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Wayne Blair (The Sapphires)
Scott Cooper (Out of the Furnace)

BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Denzel Washington (Flight)
Richard Gere (Arbitrage)

Major Threats
Jean-Louis Trintignant (Amour)
Jamie Foxx (Django Unchained)
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Matt Damon (Promised Land)
Joel Edgerton (Zero Dark Thirty)
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Clint Eastwood (Trouble with the Curve)
Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Omar Sy (The Intouchables)
Tommy Lee Jones (Hope Springs)
Jack Black (Bernie)

Possibilities
Suraj Sharma (Life of Pi)
Matthias Schoenaerts (Rust and Bone)
Liam Neeson (The Grey)
Tom Holland (The Impossible)
Paul Dano (Ruby Sparks)
Christian Bale (The Dark Knight Rises)
Christopher Walken (Stand Up Guys)
Al Pacino (Stand Up Guys)
Terence Stamp (Song for Marion)
Geoffrey Rush (The Eye of the Storm)
Gael Garcia Bernal (No)
Logan Lerman (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Anna Karenina)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Christian Bale (Out of the Furnace)
Michael Shannon (The Iceman)

BEST ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
Meryl Streep (Hope Springs)
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)

Major Threats
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina)
Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha)
Judi Dench (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Frances McDormand (Promised Land)
Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Smash)
Michelle Williams (Take This Waltz)
Maggie Smith (Quartet)
Barbra Streisand (The Guilt Trip)
Viola Davis (Won't Back Down)

Possibilities
Leslie Mann (This Is 40)
Kristen Wiig (Imogene)
Julianne Moore (What Maisie Knew)
Laura Linney (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Melissa Leo (Francine)
Jennifer Lawrence (The Hunger Games)
Rashida Jones (Celeste and Jesse Forever)
Zoe Kazan (Ruby Sparks)
Toni Collette (Jesus Henry Christ)
Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Frontrunners
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Dwight Henry (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Alan Arkin (Argo)
John Goodman (Argo)

Major Threats
Hal Holbrook (Promised Land)
Bryan Cranston (Argo)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
David Strathairn (Lincoln)
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Chris Tucker (Silver Linings Playbook)
Irfan Khan (Life of Pi)
Russell Crowe (Les Miserables)
Andy Serkis (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Ian McKellen (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Ewan McGregor (The Impossible)
Woody Harrelson (Seven Psychopaths)
Justin Timberlake (Trouble with the Curve)
James Gandolfini (Not Fade Away)
Alan Arkin (Stand Up Guys)

Possibilities
Brad Pitt (Killing Them Softly)
William H. Macy (The Sessions)
Tom Hanks (Cloud Atlas)
Jim Broadbent (Cloud Atlas)
Tom Hardy (The Dark Knight Rises)
Jude Law (Anna Karenina)
Tom Courtenay (Quartet)
Billy Connolly (Quartet)
Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike)
Garrett Hedlund (On the Road)
Aaron Paul (Smashed)
Ezra Miller (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)
Samuel West (Hyde Park on Hudson)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Casey Affleck (Out of the Furnace)
Chris O'Dowd (The Sapphires)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Amy Adams (The Master)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Kerry Washington (Django Unchained)

Major Threats
Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Samantha Barks (Les Miserables)
Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
Susan Sarandon (Arbitrage)
Ann Dowd (Compliance)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (Won't Back Down)
Kelly Reilly (Flight)
Melissa Leo (Flight)
Amy Adams (Trouble with the Curve)
Halle Berry (Cloud Atlas)

Possibilities
Tabu (Life of Pi)
Emma Watson (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)
Kristen Stewart (On the Road)
Vanessa Redgrave (Song for Marion)
Pauline Collins (Quartet)
Maggie Smith (Quartet)
Olivia Williams (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Olivia Colman (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Isabelle Huppert (Amour)
Gina Gershon (Killer Joe)
Elizabeth Banks (People Like Us)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
Argo (Chris Terrio)
Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)
Life of Pi (David Magee)

Major Threats
The Sessions (Ben Lewin)
Les Miserables (William Nicholson)
The Dark Knight Rises (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Ol Parker)
The Intouchables (Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Philippa Boyens, Guillermo Del Toro, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh)
Cloud Atlas (Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski)

Possibilities
Rust & Bone (Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain)
Anna Karenina (Tom Stoppard)
The Hunger Games (Suzanne Collins, Billy Ray, Gary Ross)
The Avengers (Joss Whedon)
Rise of the Guardians (William Joyce)
The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Stephen Chbosky)
On the Road (Jose Rivera)
Quartet (Ronald Harwood)
Killing Them Softly (Andrew Dominik)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)
The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson)
Amour (Michael Haneke)

Major Threats
Promised Land (Matt Damon, John Krasinski)
Flight (John Gatins)
Arbitrage (Nicholas Jarecki)
The Impossible (Sergio G. Sanchez)
Trouble with the Curve (Randy Brown)
Looper (Rian Johnson)
Brave (Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman)

Possibilities
The Guilt Trip (Dan Fogelman)
Not Fade Away (David Chase)
Stand Up Guys (Noah Haidle)
To Rome with Love (Woody Allen)
Hyde Park on Hudson (Richard Nelson)
Ruby Sparks (Zoe Kazan)
Celeste and Jesse Forever (Rashida Jones, Will McCormack)
For a Good Time, Call... (Lauren Miller, Katie Anne Naylon)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Out of the Furnace (Scott Cooper)
The Sapphires (Tony Briggs, Keith Thompson)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Frontrunners
Brave (Pixar, 6/22, PG, trailer)
Rise of the Guardians (DreamWorks Animation, 11/21, TBA, trailer)
Wreck-It Ralph (DreamWorks Animation, 11/2, TBA, trailer)
ParaNorman (Focus Features, 8/17, PG, trailer)
Frankenweenie (DreamWorks Animation, 10/5, TBA, trailer)

Major Threats
From Up on Poppy Hill (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Pirates! Band of Misfits (Sony Animation, 4/27, PG, trailer)
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (DreamWorks Animation, 6/8, PG, trailer)

Possibilities
Hotel Transylvania (Sony Animation, 9/28, TBA, trailer)
Le Tableau (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Rabbi's Cat (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Zarafa (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Frontrunners
The Gatekeepers (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, clip)
Searching for Sugar Man (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/27, PG-13, trailer)

Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry (Sundance Selects, 7/27, R, trailer)
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, trailer)
West of Memphis (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/25, TBA, trailer)
Major Threats
Stories We Tell (Roadside Attractions, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Head Games (Variance Films, 9/21, PG-13, trailer)
First Position (Sundance Selects, 5/4, NR, trailer)
Detropia (Loki Films, 9/7, TBA, trailer)
Central Park Five (Sundance Selects, TBA, ?, trailer)
Escape Fire: The Fight to Rescue American Healthcare (Roadside Attractions, 10/5, TBA, trailer)

The Invisible War (Docurama, 6/22, NR, trailer)
How to Survive a Plague (Sundance Selects, 9/21, TBA, trailer)
Love, Marilyn (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Possibilities
Jiro Dreams of Sushi (Magnolia, 3/9, PG, trailer)
Marley (Magnolia, 4/20, PG-13, trailer)
The Queen of Versailles (Magnolia, 7/20, PG, trailer)
Brooklyn Castle (Producers Distribution Agency, 10/19, TBA, trailer)
The Waiting Room (International Film Circuit, 9/26, trailer)
Scenes of a Crime (TBA, TBA, TBA, trailer)

Chasing Ice (Submarine Entertainment, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Neil Young Journeys (Sony Pictures Classics, 6/29, PG, trailer)
Bully (The Weinstein Co., 3/30, PG-13, trailer)
Side by Side (Tribeca Films, 8/31, TBA, trailer)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
Frontrunners
Austria -- Amour
France -- Rust & Bone or The Intouchables
Denmark -- A Royal Affair or Love Is All You Need or Marie Kroyer
Romania -- Beyond the Hills
Australia -- Lore

Major Threats
Bosnia and Herzegovina -- Children of Sarajevo
Germany -- Barbara
Belgium -- Our Children

Possibilities
Switzerland -- Sister
Hungary -- Just the Wind
Chile -- No

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Frontrunners
Lincoln
The Master
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Beasts of the Southern Wild

Major Threats
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
The Dark Knight Rises

Possibilities
Anna Karenina
Moonrise Kingdom
Argo
Cloud Atlas
The Hunger Games

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Frontrunners
Anna Karenina
Snow White and the Huntsman

Les Miserables
Django Unchained
Lincoln

Major Threats
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
Moonrise Kingdom

Possibilities
Life of Pi
The Hunger Games
The Avengers
Mirror Mirror

BEST FILM EDITING
Frontrunners
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
The Master
Django Unchained
Argo

Major Threats
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Miserables
The Dark Knight Rises
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
Possibilities
Flight
The Bourne Legacy
Moonrise Kingdom
The Avengers
The Hunger Games
The Impossible

BEST MAKEUP
Frontrunners
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln

Major Threats
The Master
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
Anna Karenina

Possibilities
Men in Black 3
The Impossible
The Hunger Games
Hyde Park on Hudson

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Frontrunners
Lincoln (John Williams)
The Master (Johnny Greenwood)

Beasts of the Southern Wild (Dan Romer, Benh Zeitlin)
Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)

Zero Dark Thirty (Ronald J. Webb)

Major Threats
The Dark Knight Rises (Hans Zimmer)
Argo (Alexandre Desplat)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Howard Shore)
Moonrise Kingdom (Alexandre Desplat)
Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli)
Django Unchained (Mary Ramos)

Possibilities
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Thomas Newman)
Rust & Bone (Alexandre Desplat)
The Hunger Games (James Newton Howard)
The Impossible (Fernando Velazquez)
Cloud Atlas (Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek, Tom Tykwer)
Flight (Alan Silvestri)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Frontrunners
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Zero Dark Thirty

Major Threats
Cloud Atlas
The Master
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Dark Knight Rises
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Argo
Moonrise Kingdom

Possibilities
Life of Pi
The Impossible
Snow White and the Huntsman
Flight
The Avengers
The Hunger Games
Skyfall

BEST SOUND EDITING
Frontrunners
Lincoln
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers

Zero Dark Thirty

Major Threats
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
The Master
Argo
Flight

Possibilities
Skyfall
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
The Sapphires

BEST SOUND MIXING
Frontrunners
Lincoln
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Les Miserables

Major Threats
Zero Dark Thirty
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
The Master
Argo
Flight
Skyfall

Possibilities
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
The Sapphires

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Frontrunners
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Cloud Atlas
Life of Pi

Major Threats
The Amazing Spider-Man
Flight

Possibilities
The Bourne Legacy
Skyfall