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2 YEARS

FEINBERG FORECAST: Scott's Updated Projections (With 22 Weeks Until the Oscars)

THR's awards analyst examines the Oscar landscape in the aftermath of the Academy's controversial decision to change the Oscar voting calendar.

The Master - H 2012

Every Sunday through the Oscars on Feb. 24, The Hollywood Reporter's lead awards analyst Scott Feinberg will release a new "Feinberg Forecast," a post in which he recaps the most noteworthy awards-related news of the past week and shares his latest assessment of the standings in each of the major awards categories. (For more information about Scott and how he arrives at his projections, see the bottom of this post.)

NOTEWORTHY DEVELOPMENTS SINCE LAST WEEK'S FORECAST:

  • The Academy surprised - and dismayed - virtually everyone when it announced its decision to move up the deadline for voters to turn in their nomination ballots, which provides a longer period for voters to see the nominated films, but also almost certainly jeopardizes the Oscar prospects of small and/or end-of-the-year releases.
  • With the Oct. 1 submission deadline approaching, many countries announced their entries for this year's best foreign language film Oscar race, including France, Denmark, Switzerland, Canada, and Norway.
  • Fox Searchlight made the somewhat surprising announcement that it will release Hitchcock this year, on Nov. 23, a move that could have major awards implications.
  • The AFI Fest, which runs from Nov. 1-8 this year, announced that its closing night screening will be the world premiere of Lincoln, making this the second year in a row that a Spielberg film has closed the event.
  • Universal released a featurette about the upcoming film Les Miserables in which the film's director and stars tout its use of live on-set (rather than post-production) singing.
  • Several Oscar hopefuls were among the nominees at Sunday night's 64th annual Primetime Emmy Awards: Julianne Moore (What Maisie Knew), Aaron Paul (Smashed), and Dame Maggie Smith (Quartet and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel) won for Game Change, Breaking Bad, and Downton Abbey, respectively, while Bryan Cranston (Argo), Woody Harrelson (Seven Psychopaths), Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy), and Kristen Wiig (Imogene) lost for Breaking Bad, Game Change, Hemingway & Gellhorn, and Saturday Night Live, respectively.
  • Over the weekend, new releases Trouble with the Curve underperformed and End of Watch overperformed at the box-office, while The Master, in its second week, and The Perks of Being a Wallflower, in its first, dominated the art-house circuit with massive per-screen averages.

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST:

BEST PICTURE
Frontrunners
Lincoln (DreamWorks, 11/9, TBA, trailer)
Les Miserables (Universal, 12/25, TBA, trailer)
Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Co., 11/21, TBA, trailer)
Argo (Warner Bros., 10/12, R, trailer)
Zero Dark Thirty (Sony, 12/19, TBA, teaser)
The Master (The Weinstein Co., 9/14, R, trailer)
Life of Pi (20th Century Fox, 11/21, TBA, trailer)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight, 6/27, PG-13, trailer)
Django Unchained (The Weinstein Co., 12/25, R, trailer)
Promised Land (Focus Features, 12/28, R, trailer)
Major Threats
Hitchcock (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, TBA, TBA) NEW
Amour (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/19, TBA, trailer)
Flight (Paramount, 11/2, TBA, trailer)
Moonrise Kingdom (Focus Features, 5/25, PG-13, trailer)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros., 12/14, TBA, trailer)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight, 5/4, PG-13, trailer)
The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Bros., 7/20, PG-13, trailer)
Cloud Atlas (Warner Bros., 10/26, R, trailer)
The Sessions (Fox Searchlight, 10/19, TBA, trailer)
The Impossible (Summit, 12/21, PG-13, trailer)
Possibilities
Anna Karenina (Focus Features, 11/16, TBA, trailer)
Trouble with the Curve (Warner Bros., 9/21, PG-13, trailer)
Rust and Bone (Sony Pictures Classics, 11/23, TBA, trailer)
Not Fade Away (Paramount, 12/21, TBA, TBA)
The Hunger Games (Lionsgate, 3/23, PG-13, trailer)
The Avengers (Disney, 5/4, PG-13, trailer)
Arbitrage (Roadside Attractions, 9/14, R, trailer)
The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Summit, 9/14, TBA, trailer)
Hyde Park on Hudson (Focus Features, 12/7, R, trailer)
On the Road (IFC Films, 12/21, R, trailer)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Out of the Furnace (Relativity Media, TBA, TBA, TBA)
The Sapphires (The Weinstein Co., TBA, TBA, trailer)

BEST DIRECTOR
Frontrunners
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
Major Threats
Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
Michael Haneke (Amour)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Gus Vant Sant (The Promised Land)
Sacha Gervasi (Hitchcock)
NEW
Robert Zemeckis (Flight)
Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom)
Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight Rises)
Peter Jackson (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski (Cloud Atlas)
Ben Lewin (The Sessions)

Possibilities
Joe Wright (Anna Karenina)
Juan Antonio Bayona (The Impossible)
John Madden (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Robert Lorenz (Trouble the Curve)
Jacques Audiard (Rust and Bone)
David Chase (Not Fade Away)
Gary Ross (The Hunger Games)
Joss Whedon (The Avengers)
Nicholas Jarecki (Arbitrage)
Stephen Chbosky (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)
Roger Michell (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Walter Salles (On the Road)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Wayne Blair (The Sapphires)
Scott Cooper (Out of the Furnace)

BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Denzel Washington (Flight)

Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock) NEW
Major Threats
Richard Gere (Arbitrage)
Jean-Louis Trintignant (Amour)
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Jamie Foxx (Django Unchained)
Matt Damon (Promised Land)

Ben Affleck (Argo)
Joel Edgerton (Zero Dark Thirty)
Clint Eastwood (Trouble with the Curve)
Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Omar Sy (The Intouchables)
Tommy Lee Jones (Hope Springs)
Jack Black (Bernie)

Possibilities
Suraj Sharma (Life of Pi)
Matthias Schoenaerts (Rust and Bone)
Liam Neeson (The Grey)
Tom Holland (The Impossible)
Christopher Walken (Stand Up Guys)
Al Pacino (Stand Up Guys)
Frank Langella (Robot & Frank)
NEW
Paul Dano (Ruby Sparks)
Christian Bale (The Dark Knight Rises)
Terence Stamp (Song for Marion)
Geoffrey Rush (The Eye of the Storm)
Gael Garcia Bernal (No)
Logan Lerman (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Anna Karenina)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Christian Bale (Out of the Furnace)
Michael Shannon (The Iceman)

BEST ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)
NEW
Meryl Streep (Hope Springs)
Major Threats
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina)
Viola Davis (Won't Back Down)

Judi Dench (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Frances McDormand (Promised Land)
Barbra Streisand (The Guilt Trip)
Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Smash)
Michelle Williams (Take This Waltz)
Maggie Smith (Quartet)

Possibilities
Leslie Mann (This Is 40)
Kristen Wiig (Imogene)
Julianne Moore (What Maisie Knew)
Laura Linney (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Melissa Leo (Francine)
Jennifer Lawrence (The Hunger Games)
Rashida Jones (Celeste and Jesse Forever)
Zoe Kazan (Ruby Sparks)
Toni Collette (Jesus Henry Christ)
Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea)
Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Frontrunners
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Dwight Henry (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Alan Arkin (Argo)
John Goodman (Argo)

Major Threats
Bryan Cranston (Argo)
Hal Holbrook (Promised Land)
Russell Crowe (Les Miserables)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
David Strathairn (Lincoln)
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Chris Tucker (Silver Linings Playbook)

Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike)
Irfan Khan (Life of Pi)
William H. Macy (The Sessions)
Jude Law (Anna Karenina)
Andy Serkis (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Ian McKellen (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)

Tom Hanks (Cloud Atlas)
Jim Broadbent (Cloud Atlas)

Possibilities
Ewan McGregor (The Impossible)
Woody Harrelson (Seven Psychopaths)

James Gandolfini (Not Fade Away)
Josh Brolin (Men in Black 3) NEW
Justin Timberlake (Trouble with the Curve)
Alan Arkin (Stand Up Guys)

Brad Pitt (Killing Them Softly)
Tom Hardy (The Dark Knight Rises)
Tom Courtenay (Quartet)
Billy Connolly (Quartet)
Garrett Hedlund (On the Road)
Aaron Paul (Smashed)
Ezra Miller (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)
Samuel West (Hyde Park on Hudson)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Casey Affleck (Out of the Furnace)
Chris O'Dowd (The Sapphires)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Amy Adams (The Master)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Kerry Washington (Django Unchained)

Major Threats
Samantha Barks (Les Miserables)
Ann Dowd (Compliance)
Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
Susan Sarandon (Arbitrage)

Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (Won't Back Down)
Kelly Reilly (Flight)
Melissa Leo (Flight)
Halle Berry (Cloud Atlas)

Possibilities
Amy Adams (Trouble with the Curve)
Tabu (Life of Pi)
Emma Watson (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)
Kristen Stewart (On the Road)
Vanessa Redgrave (Song for Marion)
Pauline Collins (Quartet)
Maggie Smith (Quartet)
Olivia Williams (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Olivia Colman (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Isabelle Huppert (Amour)
Gina Gershon (Killer Joe)
Elizabeth Banks (People Like Us)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)
Argo (Chris Terrio)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)
Life of Pi (David Magee)

Major Threats
Les Miserables (William Nicholson)
Hitchcock (John McLaughlin) NEW
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Philippa Boyens, Guillermo Del Toro, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh)
The Sessions (Ben Lewin)
The Dark Knight Rises (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Ol Parker)
The Intouchables (Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano)
Cloud Atlas (Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski)

Possibilities
Rust & Bone (Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain)
Anna Karenina (Tom Stoppard)
The Hunger Games (Suzanne Collins, Billy Ray, Gary Ross)
The Avengers (Joss Whedon)
Rise of the Guardians (William Joyce)
The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Stephen Chbosky)
On the Road (Jose Rivera)
Quartet (Ronald Harwood)
Killing Them Softly (Andrew Dominik)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson)

Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)
Amour (Michael Haneke)
Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson)
Major Threats
Promised Land (Matt Damon, John Krasinski)
Flight (John Gatins)
Arbitrage (Nicholas Jarecki)
The Impossible (Sergio G. Sanchez)
Trouble with the Curve (Randy Brown)
Looper (Rian Johnson)
Brave (Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman)

Possibilities
The Guilt Trip (Dan Fogelman)
Not Fade Away (David Chase)
Stand Up Guys (Noah Haidle)
To Rome with Love (Woody Allen)
Hyde Park on Hudson (Richard Nelson)
Ruby Sparks (Zoe Kazan)
Celeste and Jesse Forever (Rashida Jones, Will McCormack)
For a Good Time, Call... (Lauren Miller, Katie Anne Naylon)

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
Out of the Furnace (Scott Cooper)
The Sapphires (Tony Briggs, Keith Thompson)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Frontrunners
Brave (Pixar, 6/22, PG, trailer)
Rise of the Guardians (DreamWorks Animation, 11/21, TBA, trailer)
Wreck-It Ralph (DreamWorks Animation, 11/2, TBA, trailer)
ParaNorman (Focus Features, 8/17, PG, trailer)
Frankenweenie (DreamWorks Animation, 10/5, TBA, trailer)

Major Threats
From Up on Poppy Hill (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Pirates! Band of Misfits (Sony Animation, 4/27, PG, trailer)
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (DreamWorks Animation, 6/8, PG, trailer)

Possibilities
Hotel Transylvania (Sony Animation, 9/28, TBA, trailer)
Le Tableau (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Rabbi's Cat (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Zarafa (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Frontrunners
The Gatekeepers (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, clip)
Searching for Sugar Man (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/27, PG-13, trailer)

Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry (Sundance Selects, 7/27, R, trailer)
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, trailer)
West of Memphis (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/25, TBA, trailer)
Major Threats
Stories We Tell (Roadside Attractions, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Central Park Five (Sundance Selects, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The House I Live In (Charlotte Street Films, 10/5, NR, trailer)
NEW
Head Games (Variance Films, 9/21, PG-13, trailer)
First Position (Sundance Selects, 5/4, NR, trailer)
Detropia (Loki Films, 9/7, TBA, trailer)
Escape Fire: The Fight to Rescue American Healthcare (Roadside Attractions, 10/5, TBA, trailer)

The Invisible War (Docurama, 6/22, NR, trailer)
How to Survive a Plague (Sundance Selects, 9/21, TBA, trailer)
Love, Marilyn (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Possibilities
Jiro Dreams of Sushi (Magnolia, 3/9, PG, trailer)
Marley (Magnolia, 4/20, PG-13, trailer) NEW
The Queen of Versailles (Magnolia, 7/20, PG, trailer)
Brooklyn Castle (Producers Distribution Agency, 10/19, TBA, trailer)
The Waiting Room (International Film Circuit, 9/26, trailer)
Scenes of a Crime (TBA, TBA, TBA, trailer)

Chasing Ice (Submarine Entertainment, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Neil Young Journeys (Sony Pictures Classics, 6/29, PG, trailer)
Bully (The Weinstein Co., 3/30, PG-13, trailer)
Side by Side (Tribeca Films, 8/31, TBA, trailer)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
Frontrunners
Austria -- Amour
France -- The Intouchables NEW
Denmark -- A Royal Affair NEW
Romania -- Beyond the Hills
Switzerland -- Sister
NEW
Major Threats
South Korea -- Pieta
Germany -- Barbara
Australia -- Lore

Canada -- War Witch NEW
Japan -- Our Homeland
Bosnia and Herzegovina -- Children of Sarajevo
Hungary -- Just the Wind
Bulgaria -- Sneakers
Greece -- Unfair World

Possibilities
Israel -- Fill the Void or The World Is Funny or God's Neighbors [TBA]
Portugal -- Blood of My Blood
Serbia -- When Day Breaks
Belgium -- Our Children
Morocco -- Death for Sale
Netherlands -- Kauwboy
Chile -- No or Bonsai or Old Cats or Sal [TBA]

Norway -- Kon-Tiki NEW
Sweden -- The Hypnotist
Mexico -- After Lucia NEW
Philippines -- Bwakaw NEW
Czech Republic -- In the Shadow NEW

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Frontrunners
Lincoln
The Master
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Beasts of the Southern Wild

Major Threats
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
The Dark Knight Rises

Anna Karenina
Possibilities
Hitchcock NEW
Moonrise Kingdom
Argo
Cloud Atlas
The Hunger Games
Sister
NEW

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Frontrunners
Anna Karenina
Snow White and the Huntsman

Les Miserables
Django Unchained
Lincoln

Major Threats
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
Moonrise Kingdom

Possibilities
Life of Pi
Hitchcock NEW
The Hunger Games
The Avengers
Mirror Mirror

BEST FILM EDITING
Frontrunners
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
The Master
Django Unchained
Argo

Major Threats
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Miserables
The Dark Knight Rises
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
Possibilities
Flight
The Bourne Legacy
Hitchcock
NEW
Moonrise Kingdom
The Avengers

The Hunger Games
The Impossible

BEST MAKEUP
Frontrunners
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln

Major Threats
The Master
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
Anna Karenina
Hitchcock
NEW
Possibilities
Men in Black 3
The Impossible
The Hunger Games
Hyde Park on Hudson

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Frontrunners
Lincoln (John Williams)
The Master (Johnny Greenwood)

Beasts of the Southern Wild (Dan Romer, Benh Zeitlin)
Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)

Zero Dark Thirty (Ronald J. Webb)

Major Threats
The Dark Knight Rises (Hans Zimmer)
Argo (Alexandre Desplat)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Howard Shore)
Moonrise Kingdom (Alexandre Desplat)
Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli)
Django Unchained (Mary Ramos)

Hitchcock (Danny Elfman) NEW
Possibilities
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Thomas Newman)
Rust & Bone (Alexandre Desplat)
The Hunger Games (James Newton Howard)
The Impossible (Fernando Velazquez)
Cloud Atlas (Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek, Tom Tykwer)
Flight (Alan Silvestri)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Frontrunners
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Zero Dark Thirty

Major Threats
Cloud Atlas
The Master
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Dark Knight Rises
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Argo
Moonrise Kingdom

Possibilities
Life of Pi
The Impossible
Snow White and the Huntsman
Flight
The Avengers
The Hunger Games
Skyfall

BEST SOUND EDITING
Frontrunners
Lincoln
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers

Zero Dark Thirty

Major Threats
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
The Master
Argo
Flight

Possibilities
Skyfall
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
The Sapphires

BEST SOUND MIXING
Frontrunners
Lincoln
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Les Miserables

Major Threats
Zero Dark Thirty
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
The Master
Argo
Flight
Skyfall

Possibilities
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games

Still Awaiting Domestic Distribution and/or Release Date
The Sapphires

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Frontrunners
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Cloud Atlas
Life of Pi

Major Threats
The Amazing Spider-Man
Flight

Possibilities
The Bourne Legacy
Skyfall

* * *

ABOUT SCOTT FEINBERG'S "FEINBERG FORECAST"

Scott Feinberg is one of the film industry's most trusted awards analysts and has one of the world's best track records at forecasting the Oscars, something that he has been doing since 2001. His best showings came in 2004 (when he correctly called 20/24 winners) and 2006 (when he correctly called 21/24 winners). He was the only pundit to project long-shot best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009), and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011).

Scott factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings at festivals or elsewhere); publicly-available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters, and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues); historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated with the Academy); precursor awards (some awards groups have better track records than others of correlating with the Academy); and regular conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers, and voters).