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DEC
10
2 YEARS

FEINBERG FORECAST: Updated Projections (with 11 Weeks Until the 85th Oscars)

After a week of announcements from critics and awards groups, as well as plenty of other developments, THR's awards analyst tries to make sense of the Oscar race.

Compliance Ann Dowd - H 2012

Every week through the Oscars on Feb. 24, The Hollywood Reporter's awards analyst Scott Feinberg will release a new "Feinberg Forecast," a post in which he recaps the most noteworthy awards-related news of the past week and shares his latest assessment of the standings in each of the major awards categories. (For more information about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, as well as a key to the various colors and acronyms that appear throughout them, scroll to the bottom of this post.)

NOTEWORTHY DEVELOPMENTS SINCE LAST WEEK'S FORECAST:

  • Critics/awards groups began announcing their year-end awards during the past week. We heard from the New York Film Critics Circle on Dec. 3, the National Board of Review on Dec. 5, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, the Boston Society of Film Critics and the New York Film Critics Online on Dec. 9 and the Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Association and the American Film Institute on Dec. 10. (The Broadcast Film Critics Association will announce its nominations Dec. 11.) As I previously wrote, Academy members already knew to seriously consider Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) for the best actor Oscar before NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO and DCAC gave him their awards in that category and Austria's Amour for the best foreign-language film Oscar before the NYFCC, NBR, NYFCO and DCAC named it as their pick. But how many had on their radar veteran character actress Ann Dowd (Compliance) for best supporting actress before NBR awarded her their prize in that category? Or Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea) for best actress before NYFCC singled her out? Or Dwight Henry (Beasts of the Southern Wild) for best supporting actor before LAFCA heralded him? Probably not many. Also, several other contenders that already were regarded as serious contenders before these groups chimed in but probably will be taken more seriously now that they have: NBR's best actor pick Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook); 85-year-old Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), who was voted best actress by LAFCA (in a tie with Silver Linings Playbook's Jennifer Lawrence) BSFC and NYFCO; and especially Zero Dark Thirty and its director Kathryn Bigelow, the best film and best director choices, respectively, of the NYFCC, NBR, BSFC, NYFC and DCAC.
  • On Dec. 7, best documentary Oscar hopeful Searching for Sugar Man was the big winner at the International Documentary Association's IDA Awards. The Sony Pictures Classics film won the organization's awards for best documentary feature and best music. Another film that made the best documentary Oscar shortlist of 15, from which five nominees ultimately will be selected, is How to Survive a Plague, for which director David France was honored with the Jacqueline Donnet Emerging Filmmaker Award.
  • On Dec. 7, The Weinstein Co. hosted a party for Silver Linings Playbook at Hollywood's fabled Chateau Marmont hotel. In addition to the film's writer-director David O. Russell and stars Bradley Cooper and Robert De Niro, the event was attended by, among others, Cooper's actress-girlfriend Zoe Saldana, Jane Fonda, Diane Keaton, Mel Gibson, Jim Carrey, Josh Brolin, Naomi Watts, Florence Henderson, Minnie Driver, Val Kilmer, Penelope Ann Miller, Nick Jarecki and Eric Dane, several of whom are members of the Academy.
  • On Dec. 8, the Santa Barbara International Film Festival honored De Niro, a best supporting actor Oscar hopeful for Silver Linings, with its Kirk Douglas Award for Excellence in Film, a career achievement honor that it presents at a special dinner each year several weeks before the festival itself gets underway. At the event, which is attended by festival sponsors and local Academy members like Carol Burnett, De Niro was toasted by his Silver Linings writer-director Russell and his Limitless (2011) and Silver Linings co-star Cooper. Then Douglas himself, on the eve of his 96th birthday, presented him with the award, saying, "Robert De Niro never played a character; he became a character."
  • U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.) don't agree on much, but in a letter they sent to their Senate colleagues Dec. 6, the duo announced that they had jointly decided to screen the best picture Oscar hopeful Lincoln in the Capitol Visitors Center Auditorium at 5 p.m. Dec. 19, after which a Q&A will be held with the film's director Steven Spielberg, lead actor Daniel Day-Lewis, producer Kathleen Kennedy and screenwriter Tony Kushner, as well as historian Doris Kearns Goodwin, whose book Team of Rivals inspired the film. Reid and McConnell wrote, "We believe that viewing this film would provide all senators with a positive opportunity to gather and reflect during this holiday season." (Reid first saw the film at its Nov. 15 screening for President Obama at the White House.)
  • I have confirmed that The Weinstein Co. will be pushing Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained) in the best supporting actor Oscar category along with his co-stars Leonardo DiCaprio (who won NBR's best supporting actor award) and Samuel L. Jackson. This is a reversal of Weinstein's previously announced decision to push Waltz in the best actor Oscar category along with co-star Jamie Foxx. Although both male acting categories are highly competitive this year, this decision seems to me to be a tacit acknowledgment that Weinstein feels that Foxx is a stronger contender in his category than DiCaprio and/or Jackson are in theirs, since whichever category features multiple contenders from the film is the one that is more likely to produce no nominees due to vote-splitting.
  • Meanwhile, Django best supporting actress Oscar hopeful Kerry Washington, a bit of a long-shot for her largely nonverbal performance, might have won over a few Academy voters with her remarks at THR's Women in Entertainment breakfast Dec. 5. She spoke about the importance of THR’s Big Brothers Big Sisters program mentoring program, which pairs underprivileged girls from inner-city Los Angeles with a high-powered female Hollywood power broker and arranges for them to meet for one afternoon every week for a year.
  • The legendary Oscar-winning director Francis Ford Coppola, who for years hoped to direct a film version of On the Road but ultimately served as an executive producer on Walter Salles' version that has played the festival circuit this year and will be released this month, hosted a special screening of the film in Los Angeles on Dec. 6. Afterward, Coppola was joined by Salles and the film's best supporting actor Oscar hopeful Garrett Hedlund, best supporting actress Oscar hopeful Kristen Stewart and best original score Oscar hopeful Gustavo Santaolalla at a reception in a bungalow at the Chateau Marmont. Stewart's boyfriend Robert Pattinson also attended.
  • Best actor Oscar hopeful Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables) was the subject of a segment on the Dec. 9 episode of 60 Minutes, which is heavily watched by the same demographic that composes the majority of the Academy. During the segment, Jackman described Jean Valjean, the part that he plays in the film, as the "role of a lifetime."
  • On Dec. 4, Time magazine declared that Cloud Atlas is the single worst movie of 2012. Reporter Mary Pols writes that the film "is so much like the bong-fueled conversations I had in college that I almost ordered a Domino’s pizza afterward." That seems a tad harsh, considering that Battleship and John Carter also were released this year. (Thanks a lot, Taylor Kitsch!)
  • The Palm Springs International Film Festival revealed the recipients of several of the awards that it will present during its 24th installment. At its Jan. 5 awards ceremony, best actor Oscar hopeful Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) will receive the Desert Palm Achievement Award for Acting, which previously has been presented to Jeff Bridges, Daniel Day-Lewis, Colin Firth, Brad Pitt, Sean Penn and John Travolta, among others; the cast of Argo will receive the Ensemble Performance Award, which has been presented to the casts of such films as Babel and The Social Network; and best supporting actress Oscar hopeful Sally Field (Lincoln), who will receive the Career Achievement Award, which has previously been presented to Glenn Close, Robert Duvall, Clint Eastwood, Morgan Freeman and Helen Mirren, among others. They join previously announced honorees Naomi Watts, Helen Hunt and Robert Zemeckis.
  • Despite the fact that Universal's best picture Oscar hopeful Les Miserables has played through the roof at virtually every screening since it was unveiled Nov. 23, it experienced a bit of a backlash this past week. On top of Zero Dark Thirty essentially stealing its thunder as the most exciting new film, several high-profile critics -- including THR's Todd McCarthy and Film.com's Stephanie Zacharek -- issued largely negative reviews of it, which has brought its favorability rating on RottenTomatoes.com down to a rather average 77%. While that number still might improve, it's perhaps worth noting that only two films in the past 20 years won the best picture Oscar despite a RottenTomatoes.com rating that low: Forrest Gump (1994), at 71%, and Crash (2005), at 76%.

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST:

BEST PICTURE
Front-runners
Lincoln (DreamWorks, 11/9, PG-13, trailer)
Zero Dark Thirty (Sony, 12/19, R, trailer) NBR, NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC
Les Miserables (Universal, 12/25, PG-13, trailer)
Argo (Warner Bros., 10/12, R, trailer)
Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Co., 11/21, R, trailer)
Life of Pi (20th Century Fox, 11/21, PG, trailer)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight, 6/27, PG-13, trailer)
The Master (The Weinstein Co., 9/14, R, trailer)
Django Unchained (The Weinstein Co., 12/25, R, trailer)
Amour (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/19, PG-13, trailer) LAFCA
Major Threats
Flight (Paramount, 11/2, R, trailer)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros., 12/14, PG-13, trailer)
The Impossible (Summit, 12/21, PG-13, trailer)
Promised Land (Focus Features, 12/28, R, trailer)
Skyfall (Sony, 11/9, PG-13, trailer)
The Intouchables (The Weinstein Co., 5/25, R, trailer)
Possibilities
The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Bros., 7/20, PG-13, trailer)
Moonrise Kingdom (Focus Features, 5/25, PG-13, trailer)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight, 5/4, PG-13, trailer)
End of Watch (Open Road, 9/21, R, trailer)
Cloud Atlas (Warner Bros., 10/26, R, trailer)
Anna Karenina (Focus Features, 11/16, R, trailer)

BEST DIRECTOR
Front-runners
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) NBR, NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC
Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)
Ben Affleck (Argo)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Major Threats
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Michael Haneke (Amour)
Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master) LAFCA
Robert Zemeckis (Flight)
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
Peter Jackson (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Possibilities
Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight Rises)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Gus Van Sant (The Promised Land)
Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski (Cloud Atlas)
Sam Mendes (Skyfall)
Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom)

BEST ACTOR
Front-runners
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Denzel Washington (Flight)
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) NBR
Jamie Foxx (Django Unchained)
Major Threats
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) LAFCA
John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Richard Gere (Arbitrage)
Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock)
Jack Black (Bernie)
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Matt Damon (Promised Land)
Possibilities
Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Omar Sy (The Intouchables)
Tom Holland (The Impossible)
Jean-Louis Trintignant (Amour)
Liam Neeson (The Grey)
Jake Gyllenhaal (End of Watch)
Suraj Sharma (Life of Pi)

BEST ACTRESS
Front-runners
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) LAFCA
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) NBR, DCAC
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) LAFCA, BSFC, NYFCO
Major Threats
Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina)
Maggie Smith (Quartet)
Emayatzy Corinealdi (Middle of Nowhere)
Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea) NYFCC
Possibilities
Judi Dench (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Frances McDormand (Promised Land)
Meryl Streep (Hope Springs)
Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Smashed)
Elle Fanning (Ginger & Rosa)
Michelle Williams (Take This Waltz)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Front-runners
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) DCAC
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) NYFCO
Alan Arkin (Argo)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained) NBR
Major Threats
John Goodman (Argo)
Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike) NYFCC
Dwight Henry (Beasts of the Southern Wild) LAFCA
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
Eddie Redmayne (Les Miserables)
Bryan Cranston (Argo)
Javier Bardem (Skyfall)
Possibilities
Hal Holbrook (Promised Land)
Michael Pena (End of Watch)
Ewan McGregor (The Impossible)
Russell Crowe (Les Miserables)
Samuel L. Jackson (Django Unchained)
Andy Serkis (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
Ezra Miller (Perks of Being a Wallflower)
BSFC

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Front-runners
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) NYFCO, DCAC
Sally Field (Lincoln) NYFCC, BSFC
Amy Adams (The Master) LAFCA
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
Major Threats
Ann Dowd (Compliance) NBR
Kelly Reilly (Flight)
Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Amanda Seyfried (Les Miserables)
Samantha Barks (Les Miserables)
Possibilities
Kristen Stewart (On the Road)
Kerry Washington (Django Unchained)
Helena Bonham Carter (Les Miserables)
Emily Blunt (Looper)
Susan Sarandon (Arbitrage)
Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
Lincoln (Tony Kushner) NYFCC, BSFC
Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell) NBR, DCAC
Argo (Chris Terrio) LAFCA
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)
Life of Pi (David Magee)
Major Threats
Les Miserables (William Nicholson)
The Sessions (Ben Lewin)
The Intouchables (Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano)
Quartet (Ronald Harwood)
Bernie (Richard Linklater)
The Dark Knight Rises (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan)
Possibilities
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Philippa Boyens, Guillermo Del Toro, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh)
Cloud Atlas (Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Ol Parker)
Rust and Bone (Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain)
The Grey (Joe Carnahan, Ian Mackenzie Jeffers)
Hitchcock (John McLaughlin)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal) NYFCO
Amour (Michael Haneke)
The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
Looper (Rian Johnson) NBR, DCAC
Major Threats
Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson)
Flight (John Gatins)
Arbitrage (Nicholas Jarecki)
Middle of Nowhere (Ava DuVernay)
Seven Psychopaths (Martin McDonagh)
Possibilities
End of Watch (David Ayer)
Promised Land (Matt Damon, John Krasinski)
The Impossible (Sergio G. Sanchez)
Brave (Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman)
To Rome With Love (Woody Allen)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Front-runners
Brave (Pixar, 6/22, PG, trailer)
Wreck-It Ralph (Disney, 11/2, PG, trailer) NBR
Frankenweenie (Disney, 10/5, PG, trailer) NYFCC, LAFCA, BSFC
ParaNorman (Focus Features, 8/17, PG, trailer) DCAC
Rise of the Guardians (DreamWorks Animation, 11/21, PG, trailer)
Major Threats
Zarafa (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Painting (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
From Up on Poppy Hill (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Rabbi's Cat (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Possibilities
The Pirates! Band of Misfits (Sony Animation, 4/27, PG, trailer)
Hotel Transylvania (Sony Animation, 9/28, PG, trailer)
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (DreamWorks Animation, 6/8, PG, trailer)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Front-runners
Searching for Sugar Man (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/27, PG-13, trailer) NBR
The Gatekeepers (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/13, PG-13, clip) LAFCA
How to Survive a Plague (Sundance Selects, 9/21, TBA, trailer) BSFC
Detropia (Loki Films, 9/7, TBA, trailer)
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Major Threats
Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry (Sundance Selects, 7/27, R, trailer)
The Imposter (Indomina, 7/13, R, trailer)
The House I Live In (Charlotte Street Films, 10/5, NR, trailer)
Chasing Ice (Submarine Entertainment, 11/9, PG-13, trailer)
Bully (The Weinstein Co., 3/30, PG-13, trailer) DCAC
Possibilities
The Invisible War (Docurama, 6/22, NR, trailer)
Ethel (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, TBA)
The Waiting Room (International Film Circuit, 9/26, TBA, trailer)
This Is Not a Film (Palisades Tartan, 2/29, NR, trailer)
Five Broken Cameras (Kino Lorber, 5/30, NR, trailer)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
Front-runners
Austria, Amour NBR, NYFCC, NYFCO, DCAC
France, The Intouchables
Denmark, A Royal Affair

Israel, Fill the Void
Switzerland, Sister
Major Threats
Romania, Beyond the Hills
South Korea, Pieta
Iceland, The Deep
Germany, Barbara

Chile, No
Norway, Kon-Tiki

Canada, War Witch
Australia, Lore
Belgium, Our Children
Spain, Blancnieves
Philippines, Bwakaw

Possibilities
Netherlands, Kauwboy
Japan, Our Homeland
Mexico, After Lucia
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Children of Sarajevo
Hungary, Just the Wind
Colombia, The Snitch Cartel

Bulgaria, Sneakers
Greece, Unfair World
Portugal, Blood of My Blood
Serbia, When Day Breaks
Morocco, Death for Sale
Sweden, The Hypnotist
Czech Republic, In the Shadow

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Front-runners
The Master BSFC
Life of Pi NYFCO, DCAC
Zero Dark Thirty NYFCC
Lincoln
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Major Threats
Skyfall LAFCA
Cloud Atlas
Django Unchained
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Possibilities
The Dark Knight Rises
Anna Karenina
Moonrise Kingdom
Argo

Samsara

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Front-runners
Anna Karenina
Snow White and the Huntsman

Cloud Atlas
Les Miserables
Lincoln

Major Threats
A Royal Affair
Django Unchained

Mirror Mirror
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Possibilities
Argo
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Life of Pi
The Hunger Games
The Avengers

Prometheus

BEST FILM EDITING
Front-runners
Zero Dark Thirty LAFCA
Lincoln
Argo
The Master
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Major Threats
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

The Impossible
Possibilities
Django Unchained
Cloud Atlas
The Bourne Legacy

Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Samsara

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Front-runners
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Men in Black 3
Major Threats
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Hitchcock
Django Unchained

Possibilities
Anna Karenina
The Master
The Dark Knight Rises
The Impossible

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Front-runners
Lincoln (John Williams)
The Master (Johnny Greenwood) DCAC
Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)
Rise of the Guardians (Alexandre Desplat)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Dan Romer, Benh Zeitlin)
LAFCA, DCAC
Major Threats
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Howard Shore)
Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli)
Argo (Alexandre Desplat)
The Dark Knight Rises (Hans Zimmer)
Zero Dark Thirty (Alexandre Desplat)
Moonrise Kingdom (Alexandre Desplat) BSFC
Django Unchained (Mary Ramos) NYFCO
Possibilities
Cloud Atlas (Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek, Tom Tykwer)
On the Road (Gustavo Santaolalla)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Thomas Newman)
Rust and Bone (Alexandre Desplat)
The Hunger Games (James Newton Howard)
The Impossible (Fernando Velazquez)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Front-runners
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
Anna Karenina

Lincoln
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Major Threats
Cloud Atlas DCAC
The Master LAFCA
Argo
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
Possibilities
Skyfall
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom

The Impossible
Snow White and the Huntsman
Prometheus
Flight

BEST SOUND EDITING
Front-runners
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises

Les Miserables
Skyfall
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Major Threats
Zero Dark Thirty
The Avengers
The Impossible
Lincoln
Life of Pi
The Master
Argo

Possibilities
Flight
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games

BEST SOUND MIXING
Front-runners
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Miserables

Skyfall
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Major Threats
Zero Dark Thirty
The Avengers
The Impossible
Lincoln
Life of Pi
The Master
Argo

Possibilities
Flight
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Front-runners
Life of Pi
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
The Dark Knight Rises

Skyfall
Major Threats
The Avengers
The Amazing Spider-Man
Snow White & the Huntsman

Possibilities
Prometheus
John Carter

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Front-runners
Paperman (Disney)
The Eagleman Stag (Royal College of Art)
Combustible (Sunrise, Inc.)
Tram (Sacrebleu Productions)
Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare' (Gracie Films)
Major Threats
Adam and Dog (Lodge Films)
Dripped (ChezEddy)
The Fall of the House of Usher (Melusine Productions, R&R Communications Inc., Les Armateurs, The Big Farm)
Fresh Guacamole (PES)
Head Over Heels (National Film and Television School)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Front-runners
The Education of Mohammad Hussein (Loki Films)
Open Heart (Urban Landscapes Inc.)
Kings Point (Kings Point Documentary, Inc.)
Mondays at Racine (Cynthia Wade Productions)
Inocente (Shine Global, Inc.)
Major Threats
Paraiso (The Strangebird Company)
The Perfect Fit (SDI Productions Ltd.)
Redemption (Downtown Docs)

* * *

KEY

Contenders' names are followed, when appropriate, by acronyms of the major awards groups (see below) that have already named them winners (in orange) or nominees (in purple). Some nominations are still pending (they appear in italics).

ACE = 63rd Eddie Awards (TBA)

AFI = 13th American Film Institute Awards (TBA)

ADG = 17th Art Directors Guild Awards (TBA)

ASC = 27th American Society of Cinematographers Awards (TBA)

BAFTA = 66th British Academy Film Awards (TBA)

BFCA = 18th Critics' Choice Awards (TBA)

BSFC = 33rd Boston Society of Film Critics Awards (Dec. 9, 2012)

CAS = 49th Cinema Audio Society Awards (TBA)

CDG = 15th Costume Design Guild Awards (TBA)

DCAC = 11th Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Awards (Dec. 10, 2012)

DGA = 65th Directors Guild of America Awards (TBA)

HFPA = 70th Golden Globe Awards (TBA)

IAFA = 40th Annie Awards (TBA)

LAFCA = 38th Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards (TBA)

MPSE = 60th Golden Reel Awards (TBA)

NBR = 84th National Board of Review Awards (TBA)

NSFC = 47th National Society of Film Critics Awards (TBA)

NYFCC = 78th New York Film Critics Circle Awards (TBA)

NYFCO = 12th New York Film Critics Online Awards (Dec. 9, 2012)

PGA = 24th Producers Guild of America Awards (TBA)

SAG = 19th Screen Actors Guild Awards (TBA)

USC = 25th USC Scripter Awards (TBA)

VES = 11th Visual Effects Society Awards (TBA)

WGA = 65th Writers Guild of America Awards (TBA)

* * *

ABOUT SCOTT FEINBERG AND THE "FEINBERG FORECAST"

Scott Feinberg is one of the film industry's most trusted awards analysts and has one of the world's best track records at forecasting the Oscars, something that he has been doing since 2001. His best showings came in 2006 (when he correctly called 21 of 24 winners) and 2004 (when he correctly called 20 of 24 winners). He was the only pundit to project long-shot best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011).

Scott factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings at festivals or elsewhere), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated with the Academy), precursor awards (some awards groups have better track records than others of correlating with the Academy) and regular conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters).