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NOV
19
1 years

FEINBERG FORECAST: Updated Projections (With 14 Weeks Until the 85th Oscars)

THR's awards analyst recaps the most important awards-related news of the past week and offers his latest category-by-category assessment of the Oscar race.

Lincoln - H 2012

Every Sunday through the Oscars on Feb. 24, The Hollywood Reporter's awards analyst Scott Feinberg will release a new "Feinberg Forecast," a post in which he recaps the most noteworthy awards-related news of the past week and shares his latest assessment of the standings in each of the major awards categories. (For more information about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, see the bottom of this post.)

NOTEWORTHY DEVELOPMENTS SINCE LAST WEEK'S FORECAST:

  • Lionsgate's Twilight: Breaking Dawn -- Part 2, the final installment in the lucrative franchise, dominated at the box-office this weekend, grossing $141.3 million -- nearly $100 million ahead of its closest competitor, Sony's latest James Bond film Skyfall, which grossed $41.5 million, an impressive second-weekend figure for a film that tons of people caught in its first weekend. Meanwhile, DreamWorks' Lincoln, which had opened in just 11 theaters last weekend, expanded to 1,764 more this weekend and claimed third place with a haul of $21 million. And The Weinstein Co.'s Silver Linings Playbook edged out Focus Features' Anna Karenina in the battle of small-ish films opening in just 16 theaters, with both delivering modest returns: The former, which originally was set to open wide over the Thanksgiving weekend but now will be platformed, took in $458,000 ($28,625 per theater), whereas the latter took in $315,000 ($19,688 per theater).
  • President Barack Obama, a big Abraham Lincoln buff, invited the key creative team behind the new film Lincoln -- director Steven Spielberg, producer Kathleen Kennedy, screenwriter Tony Kushner, actors Daniel Day-Lewis, Sally Field, Tommy Lee Jones, and Gloria Reuben, and DreamWorks co-chair and CEO Stacey Snider -- to the White House for a special screening of the film on Nov. 15. At another event later that night, Kushner said that he thought that the president "really liked it" and that he and his whole entourage "stood up" to applaud when it ended.
  • The Producers Guild of America announced that Tim Bevan and Eric Fellner, co-chairs of Working Title Films and producers of this year's Oscar hopefuls Anna Karenina and Les Miserables, will receive the 2013 David O. Selznick Achievement Award in Theatrical Motion Pictures, the PGA's highest honor for film producers, at the 24th PGA Awards on Jan. 26. The British duo also received the Hollywood Producer Award at last month's Hollywood Film Awards, the first awards show of the season.
  • The team behind the muckraking best documentary feature Oscar hopeful The Central Park Five, which played at virtually every stop on this year's fall festival circuit, enjoyed a unique and special evening on Nov. 15. After the film played as the closing-night film for the DOC NYC fest, all five of its subjects -- including even Antron McCray, who wouldn't even appear on camera in the film in order to preserve his privacy -- gathered for an emotional Q&A, marking their first public reunion since their arraignment in 1990.
  • The Hollywood Chamber of Commerce announced that Rick Baker, the legendary makeup artist who seven Oscars to his name and is a best makeup Oscar contender this year for Men in Black 3, will receive a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame on Nov. 30. MiB director Barry Sonnenfeld will be among those speaking at the ceremony.
  • The Santa Barbara International Film Fest announced that its 28th edition, which will run from Jan. 24 through Feb. 3, will include a presentation of its highest honor, the Modern Master Award, to best director and best actor Oscar hopeful Ben Affleck (Argo) on Jan. 26. Festival director Roger Durling said in a statement: "Affleck has come into his own as a multidimensional artist with Argo. He embodies what the Modern Master Award is all about, and we're thrilled to honor him this year." The award, was established in 1995 and intended for "an individual who has enriched our culture through his/her multi-faceted accomplishments in the motion picture industry," has gone to Michael Douglas, Jodie Foster, Anthony Hopkins, Diane Keaton, Sean Penn, Jeff Bridges, Peter Jackson, George Clooney, Will Smith, Cate Blanchett, Clint Eastwood, James Cameron, Christopher Nolan, and Christopher Plummer.
  • The Palm Springs International Film Festival announced that its 24th edition, which will run from Jan 3. through Jan. 14, will include a presentation of its Spotlight Award to best supporting actress Oscar hopeful Helen Hunt (The Sessions). Previous recipients have included Amy Adams and Jessica Chastain.
  • 20th Century Fox is running a new trailer in all AMC theaters for Life of Pi, its best picture Oscar hopeful, that features footage of the film's director, Ang Lee, explaining why he elected to shoot the film in 3D, and 3D godfather James Cameron, whose company Cameron Pace Group provided Lee with the technology to shoot the film in that format, describing Lee's finished product as a "masterpiece."
  • Turner Classic Movies revealed that Flight best director Oscar hopeful Robert Zemeckis and best cinematography Oscar hopeful Don Burgess, who have worked together for years, will be the subjects of the third installment of TCM Presents AFI's Master Class -- The Art of Collaboration. The two were filmed discussing their work in front of an audience of AFI Fellows for the special doc, which will premiere at 8 p.m. Jan. 14 on TCM.
  • Robert De Niro, the legendary and press-shy best supporting actor Oscar hopeful (Silver Linings Playbook), came across very well in a rare longform interview that he granted to New York Times film critic A.O. Scott for the New York Times Magazine.
  • It was -- or should have been -- Judd Apatow Week at New York's Museum of Modern Art. The best original screenplay Oscar hopeful (This Is 40) was at MoMA on the evening of Nov. 12 for a chat with Mike Nichols and on Nov. 13 for a special screening of his film that drew everyone from John McEnroe to Robert Kraft, after which Academy members such as Judd Hirsch (Ordinary People) gathered for dinner at Nobu.
  • On Nov. 14, in a cineplex plastered with posters of the blockbuster Skyfall, best actress Oscar hopeful Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea), the wife of James Bond himself, Daniel Craig, got to be the center of attention for at least one night. After a screening of the little indie, in which she gives a breathtaking performance, Weisz participated in a SAG Q&A moderated by yours truly and subsequently was feted at a party at a private residence that drew Academy members including Sylvia Miles (Midnight Cowboy).
  • During the run-up to the Nov. 16 release of the last installment in the Twilight franchise that made her an international celebrity, Kristen Stewart went out of her way to mention, in virtually every interview that she granted, the tiny indie film for which she is now a best supporting actress Oscar hopeful (On the Road). If even a small percentage of Twihards check out On the Road because of Stewart's involvement, it will be a very big deal for IFC Films, which is campaigning hard for Stewart and her male co-stars Sam Riley and Garrett Hedlund.
  • On the afternoon of Nov. 18, during a SAG Q&A moderated by yours truly, best actor Oscar hopeful Liam Neeson (The Grey) spoke candidly -- and for one of the first times in public -- about the 2009 death of his wife Natasha Richardson. In the critically acclaimed film, Neeson plays a man who is driven to the depths of despair by the premature death of his beloved wife but fights on. The actor volunteered, "I'm sure you all know I lost my wife tragically, and this [character] really connected with me in a very special way. … It was like a godsend. That's what it was. I found it very cathartic to do, spiritually and emotionally. … I had no trouble connecting with my character's emotions. My character is me, you know? I'm playing me."
  • On the evening of Nov. 18, following a weekend of press junketing, Fox Searchlight celebrated Hitchcock with a New York premiere and afterparty at 21 (the legendary restaurant featured in several of his films) that was attended by writer-director Sacha Gervasi and stars Helen Mirren, Jessica Biel, Danny Huston, and James D'Arcy, as well as a plethora of Academy members including Jon Voight (Coming Home).
  • Also on the evening on Nov. 18, Angelina Jolie hosted a special screening of The Impossible in London to help call attention to the performance of her friend, best supporting actor Oscar hopeful Ewan McGregor, who somehow has never even been nominated for an Oscar. McGregor's co-star Tom Holland, a best actor Oscar hopeful, and several U.K.-based Academy members also were in attendance as Jolie introduced the screening: "Ewan, I have known you for years, and you are one of my favorite actors, and I’ve always loved to watch you, but I watched this and I didn’t recognize you. To say it is one of the best performances of the year really doesn’t give it credit because it doesn’t feel like a performance. It’s from such an honest place and so deeply emotional." Turning to the audience, she added: "You rarely see this emotion from a man onscreen, and I called him later to tell him how much he made me cry. I was crying, and I looked over at Brad [Pitt], and he was crying. It’s just really, really powerful. As an actor, I’m in awe."
  • The U.S. distribution rights of Baltasar Kormakur's The Deep, Iceland's official submission for Oscar consideration in the best foreign-language film category, have been bought by Focus World, the alternative distribution initiative owned and operated by Focus Features. The film was warmly received when it screened at the Mill Valley and Toronto film festivals and has been a hit at the box office back in Iceland.

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST:

BEST PICTURE
Front-runners
Argo (Warner Bros., 10/12, R, trailer)
Lincoln (DreamWorks, 11/9, TBA, trailer)
Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Co., 11/21, TBA, trailer)
Les Miserables (Universal, 12/25, TBA, trailer)
Zero Dark Thirty (Sony, 12/19, TBA, teaser)
The Master (The Weinstein Co., 9/14, R, trailer)
Life of Pi (20th Century Fox, 11/21, PG, trailer)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight, 6/27, PG-13, trailer)
Hitchcock (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, TBA, trailer)
Flight (Paramount, 11/2, TBA, trailer)
Major Threats
The Impossible (Summit, 12/21, PG-13, trailer)
Amour (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/19, TBA, trailer)
Django Unchained (The Weinstein Co., 12/25, R, trailer)
Promised Land (Focus Features, 12/28, R, trailer)
The Sessions (Fox Searchlight, 10/19, TBA, trailer)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight, 5/4, PG-13, trailer)
The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Bros., 7/20, PG-13, trailer)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros., 12/14, TBA, trailer)
Possibilities
Skyfall (Sony, 11/9, PG-13, trailer)
Moonrise Kingdom (Focus Features, 5/25, PG-13, trailer)
Anna Karenina (Focus Features, 11/16, TBA, trailer)
Cloud Atlas (Warner Bros., 10/26, R, trailer)
Arbitrage (Roadside Attractions, 9/14, R, trailer)
End of Watch (Open Road Films, 9/21, R, trailer)
Rust and Bone (Sony Pictures Classics, 11/23, TBA, trailer)
Hyde Park on Hudson (Focus Features, 12/7, R, trailer)

BEST DIRECTOR
Front-runners
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)
Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
Major Threats
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
Michael Haneke (Amour)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight Rises)
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

Robert Zemeckis (Flight)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Gus Van Sant (The Promised Land)
Peter Jackson (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)

Possibilities
Juan Antonio Bayona (The Impossible)
Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski (Cloud Atlas)
Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom)
Sam Mendes (Skyfall)
Sacha Gervasi (Hitchcock)
Joe Wright (Anna Karenina)
Jacques Audiard (Rust and Bone)
John Madden (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Walter Salles (On the Road)

BEST ACTOR
Front-runners
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Denzel Washington (Flight)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock)
Major Threats
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Richard Gere (Arbitrage)
Jack Black (Bernie)
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Matt Damon (Promised Land)
Jean-Louis Trintignant (Amour)
Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Jake Gyllenhaal (End of Watch)
Possibilities
Jamie Foxx (Django Unchained)
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
Liam Neeson (The Grey)
Tom Holland (The Impossible)
Omar Sy (The Intouchables)
Suraj Sharma (Life of Pi)
Tom Hanks (Cloud Atlas)
Tommy Lee Jones (Hope Springs)
Clint Eastwood (Trouble With the Curve)

Christopher Plummer (Barrymore)

BEST ACTRESS
Front-runners
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Major Threats
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina)
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)

Frances McDormand (Promised Land)
Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Smashed)
Maggie Smith (Quartet)
Judi Dench (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Meryl Streep (Hope Springs)
Possibilities
Barbra Streisand (The Guilt Trip)
Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea)
Michelle Williams (Take This Waltz)
Elle Fanning (Ginger & Rosa)
Melissa Leo (Francine)
Halle Berry (Cloud Atlas)
Laura Linney (Hyde Park on Hudson)
Anne Hathaway (The Dark Knight Rises)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Front-runners
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Alan Arkin (Argo)

Major Threats
Michael Pena (End of Watch)
John Goodman (Argo)
John Goodman (Flight)
Ewan McGregor (The Impossible)
Dwight Henry (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Russell Crowe (Les Miserables)
Hal Holbrook (Promised Land)
Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike)
Possibilities
Bryan Cranston (Argo)
Andy Serkis (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
William H. Macy (The Sessions)
Garrett Hedlund (On the Road)

Nate Parker (Arbitrage)
Jason Clarke (Zero Dark Thirty)
Irrfan Khan (Life of Pi)
Javier Bardem (Skyfall)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Front-runners
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Amy Adams (The Master)
Kelly Reilly (Flight)

Major Threats
Samantha Barks (Les Miserables)
Ann Dowd (Compliance)
Kristen Stewart (On the Road)
Kerry Washington (Django Unchained)
Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Susan Sarandon (Arbitrage)

Possibilities
Helena Bonham Carter (Les Miserables)
Amanda Seyfried (Les Miserables)
Judi Dench (Skyfall)
Emily Blunt (Looper)
Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)
Jennifer Ehle (Zero Dark Thirty)
Scarlett Johansson (Hitchcock)
NEW

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)
Argo (Chris Terrio)

Les Miserables (William Nicholson)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)
Major Threats
Life of Pi (David Magee)
Hitchcock (John McLaughlin)
The Sessions (Ben Lewin)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Ol Parker)
The Intouchables (Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano)
The Dark Knight Rises (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Philippa Boyens, Guillermo Del Toro, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh)

Possibilities
Cloud Atlas (Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski)
Anna Karenina (Tom Stoppard)
Quartet (Ronald Harwood)
On the Road (Jose Rivera)
The Grey (Joe Carnahan, Ian Mackenzie Jeffers)
Rust and Bone (Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain)
Rise of the Guardians (David Lindsay-Abaire)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)
Amour (Michael Haneke)
Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson)
Major Threats
Looper (Rian Johnson)
Promised Land (Matt Damon, John Krasinski)
Flight (John Gatins)
Arbitrage (Nicholas Jarecki)
The Impossible (Sergio G. Sanchez)
End of Watch (David Ayer)
Seven Psychopaths (Martin McDonagh)
Possibilities
Middle of Nowhere (Ava DuVernay)
Brave (Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman)
Ginger & Rosa (Sally Potter)
To Rome With Love (Woody Allen)
The Guilt Trip (Dan Fogelman)
Hyde Park on Hudson (Richard Nelson)
Celeste and Jesse Forever (Rashida Jones, Will McCormack)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Front-runners
Brave (Pixar, 6/22, PG, trailer)
Rise of the Guardians (DreamWorks Animation, 11/21, TBA, trailer)
Wreck-It Ralph (Disney, 11/2, TBA, trailer)
ParaNorman (Focus Features, 8/17, PG, trailer)
Zarafa (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Major Threats
The Painting (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Frankenweenie (Disney, 10/5, TBA, trailer)
The Pirates! Band of Misfits (Sony Animation, 4/27, PG, trailer)
Possibilities
Hotel Transylvania (Sony Animation, 9/28, TBA, trailer)
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (DreamWorks Animation, 6/8, PG, trailer)
From Up on Poppy Hill (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Rabbi's Cat (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Front-runners
Searching for Sugar Man (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/27, PG-13, trailer)
The Gatekeepers (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, clip)
Detropia (Loki Films, 9/7, TBA, trailer)
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry (Sundance Selects, 7/27, R, trailer)
Major Threats
West of Memphis (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/25, TBA, trailer)
The Central Park Five (Sundance Selects, 11/23, NR, trailer)
Marina Abramovic: The Artist Is Present (Music Box Films, 6/13, NR, trailer)
Samsara (Oscilloscope, 8/24, PG-13, trailer)
The Invisible War (Docurama, 6/22, NR, trailer)
The House I Live In (Charlotte Street Films, 10/5, NR, trailer)
Paul Williams: Still Alive (Abramorama, 6/8, NR, trailer)
Escape Fire: The Fight to Rescue American Healthcare (Roadside Attractions, 10/5, TBA, trailer)
How to Survive a Plague (Sundance Selects, 9/21, TBA, trailer)
Head Games (Variance Films, 9/21, PG-13, trailer)
The Queen of Versailles (Magnolia, 7/20, PG, trailer)
Possibilities
The Imposter (Indomina, 7/13, R, trailer)
Brooklyn Castle (Producers Distribution Agency, 10/19, TBA, trailer)
The Waiting Room (International Film Circuit, 9/26, TBA, trailer)
First Position (Sundance Selects, 5/4, NR, trailer)
Marley (Magnolia, 4/20, PG-13, trailer)
Love, Marilyn (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Chasing Ice (Submarine Entertainment, 11/9, PG-13, trailer)
Scenes of a Crime (New Box Productions, 3/30, NR, trailer)
Diana Vreeland: The Eye Has to Travel (Samuel Goldwyn Films, 9/21, NR, trailer)
Ethel (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Side by Side (Tribeca Films, 8/31, TBA, trailer)
Bad 25 (TBA, 10/19, TBA, trailer) NEW
The Zen of Bennett (Abramorama, 10/24, TBA, trailer)
Bully (The Weinstein Co., 3/30, PG-13, trailer)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
Front-runners
Austria, Amour
France, The Intouchables
Denmark, A Royal Affair

Israel, Fill the Void
Switzerland, Sister
Major Threats
Romania, Beyond the Hills
South Korea, Pieta

Chile, No
Norway, Kon-Tiki
Iceland, The Deep
Germany, Barbara
Canada, War Witch

Australia, Lore
Belgium, Our Children
Philippines, Bwakaw
Netherlands, Kauwboy

Possibilities
Japan, Our Homeland
Mexico, After Lucia
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Children of Sarajevo
Hungary, Just the Wind
Colombia, The Snitch Cartel

Bulgaria, Sneakers
Greece, Unfair World
Portugal, Blood of My Blood
Serbia, When Day Breaks
Morocco, Death for Sale
Sweden, The Hypnotist
Czech Republic, In the Shadow

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Front-runners
The Master
Django Unchained

Lincoln
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Major Threats
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
The Dark Knight Rises

Possibilities
Anna Karenina
Samsara
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Argo
The Hunger Games
Sister

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Front-runners
Anna Karenina
Snow White and the Huntsman

Cloud Atlas
Les Miserables
Lincoln

Major Threats
A Royal Affair
Django Unchained

Mirror Mirror
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Possibilities
Looper
Argo

The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Life of Pi
The Hunger Games
The Avengers

BEST FILM EDITING
Front-runners
Zero Dark Thirty
The Master

Lincoln
Django Unchained
Argo

Major Threats
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
The Dark Knight Rises
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
The Bourne Legacy

Possibilities
Flight
Hitchcock
Moonrise Kingdom
The Avengers

The Hunger Games
The Impossible

End of Watch
Samsara

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Front-runners
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Men in Black 3
Major Threats
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Hitchcock
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained

Possibilities
The Master
The Dark Knight Rises
The Impossible
The Hunger Games
Hyde Park on Hudson

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Front-runners
The Master (Johnny Greenwood)
Zero Dark Thirty (Alexandre Desplat)

Argo (Alexandre Desplat)
Lincoln (John Williams)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Dan Romer, Benh Zeitlin)
Major Threats
The Dark Knight Rises (Hans Zimmer)
Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Howard Shore)
Moonrise Kingdom (Alexandre Desplat)

Rise of the Guardians (Alexandre Desplat)
Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli)
Django Unchained (Mary Ramos)

Hitchcock (Danny Elfman)
Possibilities
On the Road (Gustavo Santaolalla)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Thomas Newman)
Rust and Bone (Alexandre Desplat)
The Hunger Games (James Newton Howard)
The Impossible (Fernando Velazquez)
Cloud Atlas (Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek, Tom Tykwer)
Flight (Alan Silvestri)
Samsara (Marcello De Francisci, Lisa Gerrard, Michael Stearns)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Front-runners
Les Miserables
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained

Lincoln
Cloud Atlas
Major Threats
Zero Dark Thirty
The Master
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Dark Knight Rises
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Argo
Moonrise Kingdom

Possibilities
Life of Pi
The Impossible
Snow White and the Huntsman
Flight
The Avengers
The Hunger Games
Skyfall

BEST SOUND EDITING
Front-runners
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises

The Avengers
Lincoln
Skyfall
Major Threats
Zero Dark Thirty
The Impossible
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
The Master
Argo

Flight
Possibilities
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games

BEST SOUND MIXING
Front-runners
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Les Miserables

Skyfall
Major Threats
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
The Impossible
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
The Master
Argo

Flight
Possibilities
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Front-runners
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Cloud Atlas
Life of Pi

The Dark Knight Rises

Skyfall
Major Threats
The Impossible
The Amazing Spider-Man
The Avengers

Possibilities
Flight
The Bourne Legacy

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Front-runners
Paperman (Disney)
The Eagleman Stag (Royal College of Art)
Combustible (Sunrise, Inc.)
Tram (Sacrebleu Productions)
Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare' (Gracie Films)
Major Threats
Adam and Dog (Lodge Films)
Dripped (ChezEddy)
The Fall of the House of Usher (Melusine Productions, R&R Communications Inc., Les Armateurs, The Big Farm)
Fresh Guacamole (PES)
Head Over Heels (National Film and Television School)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Front-runners
The Education of Mohammad Hussein (Loki Films)
Open Heart (Urban Landscapes Inc.)
Kings Point (Kings Point Documentary, Inc.)
Mondays at Racine (Cynthia Wade Productions)
Inocente (Shine Global, Inc.)
Major Threats
Paraiso (The Strangebird Company)
The Perfect Fit (SDI Productions Ltd.)
Redemption (Downtown Docs)

* * *

ABOUT SCOTT FEINBERG AND THE "FEINBERG FORECAST"

Scott Feinberg is one of the film industry's most trusted awards analysts and has one of the world's best track records at forecasting the Oscars, something that he has been doing since 2001. His best showings came in 2006 (when he correctly called 21 of 24 winners) and 2004 (when he correctly called 20 of 24 winners). He was the only pundit to project long-shot best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011).

Scott factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings at festivals or elsewhere), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated with the Academy), precursor awards (some awards groups have better track records than others of correlating with the Academy) and regular conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters).