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OCT
13
11 MOS

FEINBERG FORECAST: Updated Projections (With 20 Weeks Until the 86th Oscars)

"Gravity" showed little box-office let-up, "Her" finally screened at the New York Film Festival and the screener deluge continued during a busy week in the awards race.

The Wolf of Wall Street - H 2013
Paramount
Leonardo DiCaprio in "The Wolf of Wall Street"

Every week until the 86th Oscars on March 2, The Hollywood Reporter's lead awards analyst, Scott Feinberg, will post an updated "Feinberg Forecast," reflecting his latest take on the standings of the contenders in each of the major categories. For more about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, scroll to the bottom of this post. Here, meanwhile, is a list of developments since the last forecast that helped to shape this one …

  • Warner Bros.' Gravity topped the box office for the second weekend in a row, grossing $44.3 million -- a falloff of just 21 percent from its first weekend, which is the lowest decline in history for a film that opened to more than $55 million -- which pushed its overall domestic gross to $123.4 million. Placing a distant second was Sony's Captain Phillips, which took in $26 million in its first weekend, an impressive figure in its own right. Meanwhile, in very limited releases, five docs placed among the top 15 in per-screen averages: Variance Films' God Loves Uganda ($7,300) was No. 3, FilmBuff's Broadway Idiot ($6,500) was No. 4, Ketchup Entertainment's Linsanity ($3,219) was No. 7, The Vladar Co.'s Generation Iron was No. 11 ($2,229) and RADiUS' Inequality for All ($1,913) was No. 14.
  • The last week of the 51st New York Film Festival included back-to-back-to-back screenings of and receptions for Fox Searchlight's 12 Years a Slave, Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions' All Is Lost and Paramount's Nebraska on Oct 8; a gala tribute to Ralph Fiennes, followed by a screening of Sony Pictures Classics' The Invisible Woman, which he directed and stars in, on Oct. 9; and, on Oct. 12, a closing night gala screening of Warner Bros.' Her.
  • Oscar screeners are now arriving in Academy members' mailboxes. This week, DreamWorks Animation's The Croods became the first animated film to reach voters. Meanwhile, The Weinstein Co.'s Fruitvale Station arrived with a typo that the distributor sought to redress via e-mail.
  • The veracity of the fairly recent story told in Captain Phillips was called into question by unnamed sources in the New York Post on Oct. 13, just as doubts about the 160-year-old story recounted in 12 Years a Slave were recently highlighted in the New York Times on Sept. 23. Are these legitimate grievances or the first salvos of smear campaigns? Time will tell.
  • The Hollywood Film Awards announced the recipients of several more prizes that will be presented at its 17th gala ceremony on Oct. 21: The cast of August: Osage County will receive the Hollywood Ensemble Acting Award ; Fruitvale Station's Michael B. Jordan, The Book Thief's Sophie Nelisse and Lee Daniels' The Butler's David Oyelowo  will each be presented with the Hollywood Spotlight Award; and 12 blockbusters will compete for fan votes to earn the Hollywood Movie Award.
  • There are now only six serious Oscar hopefuls that have not been seen by most awards pundits: Sony's American Hustle (which has recently had several test screenings); Universal's Lone Survivor (no word yet on when it will begin screening widely); Sony's The Monuments Men (no word yet on when it will begin screening widely); Relativity Media's Out of the Furnace (which will screen at the AFI Fest); Disney's Saving Mr. Banks (which will open the AFI Fest on Nov. 7); and Paramount's The Wolf of Wall Street (which, I'm being told by multiple sources, will be completed and released before the end of the year).

And, without further ado, here is the latest forecast …

BEST PICTURE
Front-runners
American Hustle (Sony, 12/13, TBA, trailer)
12 Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight, 10/18, R, trailer)
Gravity (Warner Bros., 10/4, PG-13, trailer)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount, 11/15, TBA, trailer)
Blue Jasmine (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/26, PG-13, trailer)
Lee Daniels' The Butler (The Weinstein Co., 8/16, PG-13, trailer)
Captain Phillips (Sony, 10/11, TBA, trailer)
All Is Lost (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions, 10/18, PG-13, trailer)
The Monuments Men (Sony, 12/18, TBA, trailer)
Saving Mr. Banks (Disney, 12/20, PG-13, trailer)
Major Threats
Philomena (The Weinstein Co., TBA, TBA, trailer)
Nebraska (Paramount, 11/22, TBA, trailer)
Dallas Buyers Club (Focus Features, 11/1, R, trailer)
Inside Llewyn Davis (CBS Films, 12/6, R, trailer)
Rush (Universal, 9/27, TBA, trailer)
Fruitvale Station (The Weinstein Co., 7/12, R, trailer)
The Book Thief (20th Century Fox, 11/15, TBA, trailer)
Possibilities
Prisoners (Warner Bros., 9/20, TBD, trailer)
Before Midnight (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/24, R, trailer)
August: Osage County (The Weinstein Co., 11/8, TBA, trailer)
Blue Is the Warmest Color (Sundance Selects, 10/25, NC-17, TBA)
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (20th Century Fox, 12/25, TBA, trailer)
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (The Weinstein Co., 11/29, TBA, trailer)
Long Shots
The Great Gatsby (Warner Bros., 5/10, PG-13, trailer)
Out of the Furnace (Relativity Media, 12/6, R, trailer)
Lone Survivor (Universal, 12/27, R, trailer)
Her (Warner Bros., 12/18, TBA, trailer)
Mud (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions, 4/26, PG-13, trailer)
The Place Beyond the Pines (Focus Features, 3/29, R, trailer)

BEST DIRECTOR
Front-runners
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine)
Major Threats
Lee Daniels (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
George Clooney (The Monuments Men)
J.C. Chandor (All Is Lost)
Stephen Frears (Philomena)
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)
Possibilities
Ron Howard (Rush)
John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks)
Ryan Coogler (Fruitvale Station)
Richard Linklater (Before Midnight)
Abdellatif Kechiche (Blue Is the Warmest Color)
Jean-Marc Vallee (Dallas Buyers Club)
Spike Jonze (Her)
Long Shots
Denis Villeneuve (Prisoners)
Ben Stiller (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)
Baz Luhrmann (The Great Gatsby)
Brian Percival (The Book Thief)
Asghar Farhadi (The Past)
Scott Cooper (Out of the Furnace)

BEST ACTOR
Front-runners
Robert Redford (All Is Lost)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Major Threats
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station)
Possibilities
Joaquin Phoenix (Her)
Matt Damon (The Monuments Men)
Hugh Jackman (Prisoners)
Ben Stiller (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty)
Idris Elba (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Long Shots
Ethan Hawke (Before Midnight)
Ralph Fiennes (The Invisible Woman)
Christian Bale (Out of the Furnace)
Mark Wahlberg (Lone Survivor)
Daniel Radcliffe (Kill Your Darlings)

BEST ACTRESS
Front-runners
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)

Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Major Threats
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue Is the Warmest Color)
Kate Winslet (Labor Day)
Berenice Bejo (The Past)
Possibilities
Brie Larson (Short Term 12)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said)
Julie Delpy (Before Midnight)
Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha)
Long Shots
Sophie Nelisse (The Book Thief)
Rooney Mara (Ain't Them Bodies Saints)
Amanda Seyfried (Lovelace)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Front-runners
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Jeremy Renner (American Hustle)
Harrison Ford (42)
Major Threats
Steve Coogan (Philomena)
Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)
James Gandolfini (Enough Said)
Geoffrey Rush (The Book Thief)
George Clooney (Gravity)
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Prisoners)
Possibilities
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Bobby Cannavale (Blue Jasmine)
Andrew Dice Clay (Blue Jasmine)
Alec Baldwin (Blue Jasmine)
Daniel Bruhl (Rush)
Sam Rockwell (The Way Way Back)
Chris Cooper (August: Osage County)
Long Shots
Matthew McConaughey (Mud)
Ryan Gosling (The Place Beyond the Pines)
Bradley Cooper (The Place Beyond the Pines)

Casey Affleck (Out of the Furnace)
Josh Brolin (Labor Day)
James Franco (Spring Breakers)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Front-runners
Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels' The Butler)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)

June Squibb (Nebraska)

Major Threats
Scarlett Johansson (Her) NEW
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
Melissa Leo (Prisoners)
Lea Seydoux (Blue Is the Warmest Color)
Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)
Possibilities
Sarah Paulson (12 Years a Slave)
Naomie Harris (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Margo Martindale (August: Osage County)
Emily Watson (The Book Thief)
Long Shots
Felicity Jones (The Invisible Woman)
Jennifer Garner (Dallas Buyers Club)
Carey Mulligan (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Zoe Saldana (Out of the Furnace)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)
The Monuments Men (George Clooney, Grant Heslov)
Before Midnight (Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater)

Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope)
Major Threats
Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Steve Conrad)
August: Osage County (Tracy Letts)
Possibilities
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (William Nicholson)
The Book Thief (Michael Petroni)
Labor Day (Jason Reitman)
Long Shots
The Invisible Woman (Abi Morgan)
The Spectacular Now (Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber)
Lone Survivor (Peter Berg)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
American Hustle (David O. Russell, Eric Singer)
Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)

Inside Llewyn Davis (Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
Lee Daniels' The Butler (Danny Strong)
Nebraska (Bob Nelson)
Major Threats
Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron, Jonas Cuaron)
All Is Lost (J.C. Chandor)

Her (Spike Jonze)
Fruitvale Station (Ryan Coogler)
Enough Said (Nicole Holofcener)
Possibilities
Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack)
Saving Mr. Banks (Kelly Marcel, Sue Smith)
Rush (Peter Morgan)
The Way Way Back (Nat Faxon, Jim Rash)
Prisoners (Aaron Guzkowski)

Long Shots
Frances Ha (Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig)
The Past (Asghar Farhadi)
Mud (Jeff Nichols)
The Place Beyond the Pines (Derek Cianfrance, Bob Coccio, Darius Marder)

Out of the Furnace (Scott Cooper, Brad Inglesby)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Front-runners
Frozen (Disney, 11/27, TBA, TBA)
The Wind Rises (Studio Ghibili, 11/8, TBA, trailer)
Monsters University (Disney-Pixar, 6/21, G, trailer)
The Croods (DreamWorks Animation
, 3/22, PG, trailer)
Ernest & Celestine (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Major Threats
Despicable Me 2 (Universal, 7/3, PG, trailer)
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2 (Sony, 9/27, TBA, trailer)
Turbo (DreamWorks, 7/19, PG, trailer)
Epic (20th Century Fox, 5/24, PG, trailer)
Walking With Dinosaurs 3D (20th Century Fox, 12/20, TBA, trailer)
Possibilities
Khumba (Millennium Entertainment, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Planes (Disney, 8/9, PG, trailer)
Escape From Planet Earth (The Weinstein Co., 2/15, PG, trailer)
Free Birds (Relativity Media, 11/1, TBA, trailer)
A Letter to Momo (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Long Shots
The Smurfs 2 (Sony, 7/31, PG, trailer)
The Legend of Sarila (Phase 4 Films, TBA, TBA,
trailer)
The Snow Queen (Vertical Entertainment, 1/3, NR,
trailer)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Front-runners
Tim's Vermeer (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, TBA)
20 Feet From Stardom (RADiUS, 6/14, PG-13, trailer)
Stories We Tell (Roadside Attractions, 5/10, PG-13, trailer)

The Square (City Drive Entertainment Group, 10/25, NR, TBA)
American Promise (Rada Film Group, 10/18, NR, trailer)
Major Threats
Blackfish (Magnolia, 7/19, PG-13, trailer)
The Act of Killing (Drafthouse Films, 7/19, NR, trailer)
Dirty Wars (IFC Films, 6/7, NR, trailer)
The Unknown Known (RADiUS, TBA, TBA, TBA)
Jodorowsky's Dune (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Cutie and the Boxer (RADiUS, 8/16, R, trailer)
Call Me Kuchu (Cinedigm, 6/14, NR, trailer)

Free Angela and All Political Prisoners (Lionsgate, 4/5, NR, trailer)
We Steal Secrets: The Story of WikiLeaks (Focus World, 5/24, R, trailer)
After Tiller (Oscilloscope, 9/20, TBA, trailer)
Possibilities
The Armstrong Lie (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, TBA)
God Loves Uganda (Variance Films, 10/11, TBA, trailer)
Muscle Shoals (Magnolia, 9/27, TBA, trailer)
Blood Brother (Tugg, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Leviathan (Cinema Guild, 3/1, NR, trailer)
Rising From Ashes (First Run Features, 8/2, NR, trailer)
Salma (Women Make Movies, 1/?, TBA, trailer)

For No Good Reason (Sony Pictures Classics, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Salinger (The Weinstein Co., 9/6, TBA, trailer)
Long Shots
Terms and Conditions May Apply (Variance Films, 7/12, TBA, trailer)
Fire in the Blood (International Film Circuit, 9/6, NR, trailer)
Linsanity (Ketchup Entertainment, 10/4, NR, trailer)
Sound City (Roswell Films/Variance Films, 2/1, NR, trailer)
Informant (Music Box Films, 9/13, TBA, trailer)
Narco Cultura (Cinedigm, TBA, TBA, trailer)
99%: The Occupy Wall Street Collaborative Film (Participant Media, 9/6, TBA, trailer)
Inequality for All (RADiUS, 9/27, PG, trailer)
56 Up (First Run Features, 1/4, NR, trailer)
Still Seeking U.S. Distribution
Expedition to the End of the World (trailer)
Running From Crazy (
trailer)
Valentine Road

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Front-runners
Iran (The Past)
Israel (Bethlehem)
Denmark (The Hunt)
Italy (The Great Beauty)
Saudi Arabia (Wadjda)
Others, listed alphabetically
Afghanistan (Wajma)
Albania (Agon)
Argentina (Wakolda)
Australia (The Rocket)
Austria (The Wall)
Azerbaijan (Steppe Man)

Bangladesh (Television)
Belgium (The Broken Circle Breakdown)
Bosnia-Herzegovina (An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker)
Bulgaria (The Color of Chameleon)
Cambodia (The Missing Picture)
Canada (Gabrielle)

Chad (GriGris)
Chile (Gloria)
Colombia (La Playa DC)

Croatia (Halima's Path)
Czech Republic (The Don Juans)

Dominican Republic (Quien Manda?)
Ecuador (The Porcelain Horse)
Egypt (Winter of Discontent)
Estonia (Free Range)
Finland (The Disciple)
France (Renoir
)
Georgia (In Bloom)
Germany (Two Lives)
Greece (Boy Eating the Bird's Food)
Hong Kong (The Grandmaster)

Hungary (The Notebook)
Iceland (Of Horses and Men)
India (The Good Road)
Indonesia (Sang Kiai)

Japan (The Great Passage)
Kazakhstan (The Old Man)

Latvia (Mother I Love You)
Lebanon (Blind Intersections)

Lithuania (Conversations on Serious Topics)
Luxembourg (Blind Spots)

Mexico (Heli)
Moldova (All God's Children)

Montenegro (Ace of Spades -- Bad Destiny)
Morocco (Horses of God)

Nepal (Soongava: Dance of the Orchids)
Netherlands (Borgman)

New Zealand (White Lies)
Norway (I Am Yours)

Pakistan (Zinda Bhaag)
Palestine (Omar)
Peru (The Cleaner)

Philippines (Transit)
Poland (Walesa)

Portugal (Lines of Wellington)
Romania (Child's Pose)
Russia (Stalingrad)
Serbia (Circles)
Singapore (Ilo Ilo)
Slovak Republic (My Dog Killer)
Slovenia (Class Enemy)

South Africa (Four Corners)
South Korea (Juvenile Offender)
Spain (15 Years Plus a Day)
Sweden (Eat Sleep Die)
Switzerland (More Than Honey)

Taiwan (Soul)
Thailand (Countdown)

Turkey (The Butterfly's Dream)
Ukraine (Parajanov)
United Kingdom (Metro Manila)
Uruguay (Anina)

Venezuela (Breach in the Silence)

About the Feinberg Forecast

Scott has been forecasting the Oscars since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records. His best showings came in 2006 and 2013, when he correctly called 21 out of 24 winners. He was the only pundit to project best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011), among other long shots.

He factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others), and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

Twitter: @ScottFeinberg