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FEINBERG FORECAST: Updated Projections (With 3 Weeks Until the 85th Oscars)

THR's awards analyst recaps the most important awards-related news of the past week and offers his latest category-by-category assessment of the Oscar race.

Silver Linings Playbook Robert De Niro - P 2013

Every week through the Oscars on Feb. 24, The Hollywood Reporter's awards analyst Scott Feinberg will release a new "Feinberg Forecast," a post in which he recaps the most noteworthy awards-related news of the past week and shares his latest assessment of the standings in each of the major awards categories. (For more information about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, as well as a key for the various colors and acronyms that appear throughout them, scroll to the bottom of this post.)

NOTEWORTHY DEVELOPMENTS SINCE LAST WEEK'S FORECAST

  • At the 65th Directors Guild of America Awards on Feb. 2, Ben Affleck (Argo) won the DGA Award for outstanding directorial achievement in feature films, completing a sweep of the season's top precursor awards for the Oscar-snubbed director and his Warner Bros. film. (Here's my analysis of what the win means for his film and for the two Oscar-nominated directors among the DGA nominees he beat.) The winner of the DGA Award for outstanding directiorial achievement in documentary films was Malik Bendjelloul (Searching for Sugar Man).

VIDEO: THR's Oscar Roundtable Season in 3 Minutes

  • On Feb. 2, at the 17th Art Directors Guild Awards, the three big winners were Anna Karenina (in the period film category) and Life of Pi (in the fantasy film category) -- both nominees for the best production design Oscar (formerly known as the best art direction Oscar) -- plus the Oscar-snubbed Skyfall (in the contemporary film category).
  • On Feb. 2, at the 40th Annie Awards, Disney's Wreck-It Ralph was the big winner, claiming five trophies, including the two biggest: best animated feature and best director (Rich Moore). Two of its fellow best animated feature Oscar nominees, Brave and ParaNorman, also won two Annies; the category's other two nominees, Frankenweenie and The Pirates! Band of Misfits, went home empty-handed.
  • On Feb. 4, at the 32nd annual Oscar nominees luncheon, the Academy welcomed 163 of this year's Oscar nominees, previewed the 85th Oscars for them and took a "class photo" of them, during which reporters -- including yours truly -- carefully monitored the level of applause with which each nominee was greeted. Later that night, many of the nominees -- including Affleck, Amy Adams (The Master), Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Sally Field (Lincoln), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Steven Spielberg (Lincoln) and Naomi Watts (The Impossible) -- attended THR's Oscar Nominees Night at Spago, which was DJ'd by Snoop Dogg (aka DJ Snoopadelic).
  • On Feb. 3, best supporting actor Oscar nominee Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook) granted a rare interview to CBS News. The next day, he was immortalized in cement outside of Grauman's Chinese Theatre in Hollywood, participated in a Q&A at the American Cinematheque and became emotional when asked by Katie Couric about his personal connection to the subject matter of Silver Linings.
  • On Feb. 5, at the 11th Visual Effects Society Awards, the team behind best visual effects Oscar nominee Life of Pi won four VES Awards, including the top prize for outstanding visual effects in a visual effects-driven feature. Best animated feature Oscar nominee Brave also won four prizes.
  • On Feb. 6, at the 4th Creative Arts Awards, hosted by the International 3D Society, Life of Pi swept the feature narrative live-action film categories -- winning best live-action 3D feature, best stereography in a live-action film and 3D moment of the year for “fish flying over boat” -- and the filmmaker responsible for it, best director Oscar nominee Ang Lee, was awarded the society's highest honor, the Haroly Lloyd Award.
  • On Feb. 7, Silver Linings Playbook's best director/best adapted screenplay Oscar nominee David O. Russell and best actor Oscar nominee Bradley Cooper met with Vice Pres. Joseph Biden to discuss mental healthcare in America. Also, on Jan. 31, Cooper was a guest for two segments of MSNBC's Hardball. The host, fellow Philly native Chris Matthews, called Silver Linings "the best movie of the year" and said, "I have never seen a more heartwarming movie about what humans can do together and how families really do stick together and really do work things out." (The Weinstein Co. quickly turned around print ads highlighting the glowing endorsement.)

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST

BEST PICTURE
1. Argo (Warner Bros., 10/12, R, trailer)
PGA, SAG, HFPA, AFI, BFCA, IPA, DGA, WGA, BAFTAADG
2. Lincoln (DreamWorks, 11/9, PG-13, trailer)
AFI, PGA, SAG, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, ADG, ASC, CAS
3. Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Co., 11/21, R, trailer)
AFI, IPA, PGA, SAG, HFPA, BFCA, WGA, FI
4. Life of Pi (20th Century Fox, 11/21, PG, trailer)
AFI, PGA, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, ADG, ASC, VES
5. Zero Dark Thirty (Sony, 12/19, R, trailer)
NBR, NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC, AFI, PGA, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, ADG, CAS
6. Les Miserables (Universal, 12/25, PG-13, trailer)
AFI, PGA, SAG, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, DGA, BAFTA, ADG, ASC, CAS
7. Django Unchained (The Weinstein Co., 12/25, R, trailer)
AFI, PGA, HFPA, BFCA, ADG
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight, 6/27, PG-13, trailer)
AFI, PGA, BFCA, IPA, FI
9. Amour (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/19, PG-13, trailer)
LAFCA

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
HFPA, BFCA, IPA, DGA
2. Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
HFPA, BFCA, DGA, BAFTA
3. David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
IPA, BFCA, FI
4. Michael Haneke (Amour)
5. Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
FI
, IFP

BEST ACTOR
1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
SAG, HFPA, BFCA, NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, BAFTA
2. Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
HFPA, SAG, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA
3. Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
NBR, IPA, SAG, HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA, FI
4. Denzel Washington (Flight)
SAG, HFPA, BFCA, IPA
5. Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
LAFCA, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA

BEST ACTRESS
1. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
SAG, LAFCA, IPA, BFCA, BAFTA, FI
2. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
LAFCA, BSFC, NYFCO, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA
3. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
HFPA, BFCA, NBR, DCAC, SAG, IPA, BAFTA
4. Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
SAG, HFPA, BFCA
5. Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
BFCA, IFP

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
HFPA, BAFTA
2. Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
SAG, BFCA, IPA
3. Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
SAG, NYFCO, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
BFCA, DCAC, SAG, HFPA, IPA
5. Alan Arkin (Argo)
SAG, HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
SAG, HFPA, BFCA, NYFCO, IPA, DCAC, BAFTA
2. Sally Field (Lincoln)
NYFCC, BSFC, SAG, HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA
3. Amy Adams (The Master)
LAFCA, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA
4. Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
SAG, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA, FI
5. Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
BFCA, NYFCC, BSFC, HFPA, IPA, WGA, BAFTA
2. Argo (Chris Terrio)
LAFCA, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, WGA, BAFTA
3. Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)
NBR, DCAC, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, WGA, BAFTA, FI
4. Life of Pi (David Magee)
BFCA, IPA, WGA, BAFTA
5. Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)
BAFTA

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA
2. Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)
NYFCO, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, WGA, BAFTA
3. Amour (Michael Haneke)
BAFTA
4. Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson)
BFCA, IPA, WGA, BAFTA, FI
5. Flight (John Gatins)
BFCA, IPA, WGA

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Wreck-It Ralph (Disney, 11/2, PG, trailer)
IAFS, PGA, BFCA, NBR, HFPA, IPA, CAS
2. Brave (Pixar, 6/22, PG, trailer)
HFPA, IAFS, PGA, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA, CAS
3. Frankenweenie (Disney, 10/5, PG, trailer)
NYFCC, LAFCA, BSFC, IAFS, PGA, BFCA, HFPA, IPA, BAFTA, CAS
4. ParaNorman (Focus Features, 8/17, PG, trailer)
DCAC, IAFS, PGA, BFCA, BAFTA
5. The Pirates! Band of Misfits (Sony Animation, 4/27, PG, trailer)
IAFS

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Searching for Sugar Man (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/27, PG-13, trailer)
DGA, PGA, NBR, IPA, IPA, WGA, BAFTA, BFCA, CEH
2. The Gatekeepers (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/13, PG-13, clip)
LAFCA, PGA, IPA
3. How to Survive a Plague (Sundance Selects, 9/21, TBA, trailer)
BSFC, IFP, DGA, FI
4. The Invisible War (Docurama, 6/22, NR, trailer)
DGA, IDA
5. 5 Broken Cameras (Kino Lorber, 5/30, NR, trailer)
FI

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1. Austria, Amour
HFPA, BFCA, NBR, NYFCC, NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, BAFTA,   FI
2. Norway, Kon-Tiki
HFPA, IPA
3. Denmark, A Royal Affair
HFPA, BFCA, IPA
4. Canada, War Witch
IPA, FI

5. Chile, No

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Life of Pi (Claudio Miranada)
NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
2. Anna Karenina (Seamus McGarvey)
IPA, ASC, BAFTA
3. Skyfall (Roger Deakins)
LAFCA, IPA, ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
4. Lincoln (Janusz Kaminski)
IPA, ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
5. Django Unchained (Robert Richardson)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Anna Karenina ()
BFCA, IPA, BAFTA
2. Les Miserables (Paco Delgado)
BFCA, IPA, BAFTA
3. Lincoln (Joanna Johnston)
BFCA, BAFTA
3. Snow White and the Huntsman (Colleen Atwood)
IPA, BAFTA
5. Mirror Mirror (Eiko Ishioka)

BEST FILM EDITING
1. Argo (William Goldenberg)
BFCA, BAFTA
2. Zero Dark Thirty (William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor)
BFCA, LAFCA, IPA, BAFTA
3. Lincoln (Michael Kahn)
BFCA
4. Life of Pi (Tim Squyres)
BFCA, BAFTA
5. Silver Linings Playbook (Jay Cassidy)
IPA

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Rick Findlater, Peter Swords King, Tami Lane)
BFCA, BAFTA
2. Les Miserables (Julie Dartnell, Lisa Westcott)
BFCA, BAFTA
3. Hitchcock (Howard Berger, Peter Montagna, Martin Samuel)
BAFTA

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)
HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA
2. Argo (Alexandre Desplat)
IPA, HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA
3. Lincoln (John Williams)
BFCA, HFPA, IPA, BAFTA
4. Skyfall (Thomas Newman)
IPA, BAFTA
5. Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli)
HFPA, IPA, BAFTA

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. Skyfall ("Skyfall," performed by Adele)
HFPA, BFCA
2. Les Miserables ("Suddenly," performed by Hugh Jackman)
BFCA, HFPA
3. Ted ("Everybody Needs a Friend," performed by Norah Jones)
4. Life of Pi ("Pi's Lullaby," performed by Bombay Jayashri)
5. Chasing Ice ("Before My Time," performed by Joshua Bell and Scarlett Johansson)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Anna Karenina (Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer)
ADG, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA
2. Life of Pi (David Gropman, Anna Pinnock)
ADG, BAFTA
3. Lincoln (Rick Carter, Jim Erickson)
IPA, ADG, BFCA, BAFTA
4. Les Miserables (Anna Lynch Robinson, Eve Stewart)
ADG, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA
5. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Simon Bright, Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent)
ADG, BFCA

BEST SOUND EDITING
1. Skyfall (Per Hallberg, Karen Baker Landers)
BAFTA, MPSE
2. Life of Pi (Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton)
IPA, BAFTA, MPSE
3. Argo (Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn)
MPSE
4. Django Unchained (Wylie Stateman)
BAFTA
5. Zero Dark Thirty (Paul N. J. Ottosson)

BEST SOUND MIXING
1. Skyfall (Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, Stuart Wilson)
CAS, BAFTA
2. Les Miserables (Simon Hayes, Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson)
IPA, CAS, BAFTA
3. Life of Pi (Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill, Drew Kunin)
IPA, BAFTA

4. Lincoln (Ronald Judkins, Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom)
CAS
5. Argo (Jose Antonio Garcia, John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Life of Pi (Erik-Jan de Boer, Donald R. Elliott, Guillaume Rocheron, Bill Westenhofer)
BFCA, IPA, VES, BAFTA
2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (David Clayton, Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, R. Christopher White)
BFCA, VES, BAFTA
3. The Avengers (Janek Sirrs, Dan Sudick, Jeff White, Guy Williams)
BFCA, VES, BAFTA
4. Prometheus (Charley Henley, Martin Hill, Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood)
IPA, BAFTA, VES
5. Snow White and the Huntsman (Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould, Michael Dawson, Cedric Nicolas-Troyan)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
1. Paperman (Disney)
IAFS
2. Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare' (Gracie Films)
1. Adam and Dog (Lodge Films)
2. Head Over Heels (National Film and Television School)
5. Fresh Guacamole (PES)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1. Inocente (Shine Global, Inc.)
2. Open Heart (Urban Landscapes Inc.)
3. Kings Point (Kings Point Documentary, Inc.)
4. Mondays at Racine (Cynthia Wade Productions)
5. Redemption (Downtown Docs)

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
1. Asad (Hungry Man)
2. Buzkashi Boys (Afghan Film Project)
3. Curfew (Fuzzy Logic Pictures)
4. Death of a Shadow (Serendipity Films)
5. Henry (Yan England)

* * *

KEY

Contenders' names are followed, when appropriate, by acronyms of the major awards groups (see below) that have already named them winners (in orange) or nominees (in purple). Some nominations are still pending (they appear in italics).

ACE = 63rd Eddie Awards (Feb. 16, 2013)

ADG = 17th Art Directors Guild Awards (Feb. 2, 2013)

AFI = 13th American Film Institute Awards (Jan. 11, 2013)

ASC = 27th American Society of Cinematographers Awards (Feb. 10, 2013)

BAFTA = 66th British Academy Film Awards (Feb. 10, 2013)

BFCA = 18th Critics' Choice Awards (Jan. 10, 2013)

BSFC = 33rd Boston Society of Film Critics Awards (Dec. 9, 2012)

CAS = 49th Cinema Audio Society Awards (Feb. 16, 2013)

CDG = 15th Costume Design Guild Awards (Feb. 19, 2013)

CEH = 6th Cinema Eye Honors (Jan. 9, 2013)

DCAC = 11th Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Awards (Dec. 10, 2012)

DGA = 65th Directors Guild of America Awards (Feb. 2, 2013)

FI = 28th Independent Spirit Awards (Feb. 23, 2013)

HFPA = 70th Golden Globe Awards (Jan. 13, 2013)

IAFS = 40th Annie Awards (Feb. 2, 2013)

IDA = 28th International Documentary Association Awards (Dec. 7, 2012)

IFP = 22nd Gotham Independent Film Awards (Nov. 26, 2012)

IPA = 17th Satellite Awards (Dec. 16, 2012)

LAFCA = 38th Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards (Jan. 12, 2013)

MPSE = 60th Golden Reel Awards (Feb. 17, 2013)

NBR = 84th National Board of Review Awards (Jan. 8, 2013)

NSFC = 47th National Society of Film Critics Awards (Jan. 5, 2013)

NYFCC = 78th New York Film Critics Circle Awards (Jan. 7, 2013)

NYFCO = 12th New York Film Critics Online Awards (Dec. 9, 2012)

PGA = 24th Producers Guild of America Awards (Jan. 26, 2013)

SAG = 19th Screen Actors Guild Awards (Jan. 27, 2013)

USC = 25th USC Scripter Awards (Feb. 9, 2013)

VES = 11th Visual Effects Society Awards (Feb. 5, 2013)

WGA = 65th Writers Guild of America Awards (Feb. 17, 2013)

* * *

ABOUT SCOTT FEINBERG AND THE "FEINBERG FORECAST"

Scott Feinberg is one of the film industry's most trusted awards analysts and has one of the world's best track records at forecasting the Oscars, something that he has been doing since 2001. His best showings came in 2006 (when he correctly called 21 of 24 winners) and 2004 (when he correctly called 20 of 24 winners). He was the only pundit to project long-shot best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011).

Scott factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings at festivals or elsewhere), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated with the Academy), precursor awards (some awards groups have better track records than others of correlating with the Academy) and regular conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters).