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JAN
30
1 years

FEINBERG FORECAST: Updated Projections (With 4 Weeks Until the 85th Oscars)

THR's awards analyst recaps the most important awards-related news of the past week and offers his latest category-by-category assessment of the Oscar race.

Les Miserable Hugh Jackman Anne Hathaway - H 2013
Hugh Jackman and Anne Hathaway in 'Les Miserables'

Every week through the Oscars on Feb. 24, The Hollywood Reporter's awards analyst Scott Feinberg will release a new "Feinberg Forecast," a post in which he recaps the most noteworthy awards-related news of the past week and shares his latest assessment of the standings in each of the major awards categories. (For more information about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, as well as a key for the various colors and acronyms that appear throughout them, scroll to the bottom of this post.)

PHOTOS: Screen Actors Guild Awards Winners

NOTEWORTHY DEVELOPMENTS SINCE LAST WEEK'S FORECAST

  • Best picture Oscar nominee Argo had a nice weekend: On Jan. 25, its Oscar-snubbed director Ben Affleck was honored with the Santa Barbara International Film Festival's Modern Master Award; on Jan. 26, it won the PGA Award, upsetting presumptive favorite Lincoln; and on Jan. 26, it won the SAG Award for best ensemble, which many thought would go to Silver Linings Playbook or Les Miserables. While two films have won both the PGA and SAG awards and still lost the best picture Oscar -- Apollo 13 (1995) and Little Miss Sunshine (2006) -- one can reasonably conclude that these honors, coupled with Argo's best picture and best director Critics' Choice and Golden Globe awards, make it the film to beat at the Oscars -- though there are a few ways in which the other best picture nominees might still be able to revive their prospects.
  • Zero Dark Thirty, also a best picture Oscar nominee, did not win any major awards this week, but its awards campaign did enjoy other types of boosts: Time magazine put its Oscar-snubbed director Kathryn Bigelow on its cover alongside a description of her film as "the year's most controversial movie" and also featured a lengthy profile of her by Jessica Winter; noted liberal filmmaker Michael Moore posted an impassioned defense of the film on his Facebook page (an abbreviated version of which appeared in the Time issue); the film repeatedly was referenced in coverage of the Jan. 23 decision by the U.S. military to start allowing women to serve in combat; Martin Sheen, who had been associated with a small group of fellow Academy members who were urging other members not to support the film because of its depiction and alleged endorsement of torture, recanted his support of that group's position; and outgoing Secretary of Defense and former CIA director Leon Panetta told ABC News that he has seen the film and believes, "it's a great movie. I think they did a good job at kind of indicating how some of this was pieced together." Of James Gandolfini, who portrays him, Panetta said, "He did a great job."

VIDEO: A Few Minutes With Feinberg: Where in the World Did They Find These Nominees?

  • Lincoln didn't win the top prizes at the PGA or SAG awards, but it still had a decent week. On Jan. 26, the film's best actor Oscar nominee Daniel Day-Lewis participated in a two-hour Q&A -- unprecedented for him -- with yours truly at the Santa Barbara International Film Festival, discussing his life and work, before his Lincoln co-star Sally Field, a best supporting actress Oscar nominee, presented him with the fest's Montecito Award. On Jan. 27, at the SAG Awards, Day-Lewis won best actor, and his co-star Tommy Lee Jones, a best supporting actor Oscar nominee, won best supporting actor. On Jan. 28, it was announced that the film's scribe Tony Kushner, a best adapted screenplay Oscar nominee, will be honored with the WGA West's 2013 Paul Selvin Award at the WGA Awards on Feb. 17. And on Jan. 29, it was announced that best director Oscar nominee Steven Spielberg will be honored by the American Cinema Editors guild with its top honor, the ACE Golden Eddie Award for Filmmaker of the Year, at the ACE Eddie Awards on Feb. 16.
  • It was an up-and-down week for best picture Oscar nominee Silver Linings Playbook. The film lost the PGA Award, not unexpectedly, but also came up short in the race for the best ensemble SAG Award, which many expected it to win. (It is, after all, the first movie since Reds in 1982 to score an Oscar nomination in all four acting categories. Also, The Weinstein Co. had spent considerable money to make sure that every SAG member received a screener of the film and also had the option of streaming it online and/or seeing it in a theater using a voucher known as "movie cash," not to mention sending around a special glossy booklet that featured favorable critics' quotes and CDs containing the film's Oscar-nominated adapted screenplay and a "Making of" featurette.) However, its best actress Oscar nominee Jennifer Lawrence did hold off considerable competition from fellow Oscar nominees Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) and Naomi Watts (The Impossible) and win the SAG prize for that category. And, on that same day, the Australian Academy of Film and Television Arts awarded the film its prizes for best picture, best director (Oscar nominee David O. Russell) and best actress and also gave "discretionary awards" for best supporting actor and best supporting actress to its Oscar nominees in those same categories, Robert De Niro and Jacki Weaver.
  • Nine-year-old Beasts of the Southern Wild star Quvenzhane Wallis, the youngest best actress Oscar nominee in history, was one of this year's six recipients of a Virtuoso Award from the Santa Barbara International Film Festival. She, Ann Dowd (Compliance), Elle Fanning (Ginger & Rosa), Ezra Miller (The Perks of Being a Wallflower), Eddie Redmayne (Les Miserables) and Omar Sy (The Intouchables) all participated in individual interviews before taking the stage together for a brief Q&A, then receiving their prizes from someone who also recently experienced a career breakthrough, Beasts co-writer/director/co-composer Benh Zeitlin, who is a best director and best adapted screenplay nominee for the film.
  • Searching for Sugar Man, a best documentary feature Oscar nominee, and Wreck-It Ralph, a best animated feature Oscar nominee, were honored with the PGA Awards in their respective categories on Jan. 26.
  • Best documentary feature Oscar nominee The Gatekeepers got some nice exposure this week. Director Dror Moreh was interviewed about the film on NPR on Jan. 24, profiled in The New York Times on Jan. 25, and featured on CNN's Amanpour on Jan. 28  .
  • Adele, a best original song Oscar nominee for the title song in Skyfall, for which she already has won a Golden Globe Award,   has agreed to perform the number on the Oscars telecast Feb. 24. It was announced that Norah Jones, who sings the best original song Oscar nominee "Everybody Needs a Best Friend" in Ted, also will perform it on the show. And, it was revealed that Barbra Streisand also will perform on the show, in an unspecified capacity, for the first time in 36 years.
  • The Simpsons has won 27 Emmys and a Peabody Award, and now the show's youngest character, Maggie Simpson, might well bag an Oscar for director David Silverman. Maggie Simpson in "The Longest Daycare" is nominated for the best animated short Oscar category, and its backers ran ads in both trades this week and, I have learned, are about to launch a social media campaign that will reach millions via The Simpsons' Facebook page.
  • And, with the Oscar nominees luncheon -- and THR's Oscar nominees party -- both coming up Feb. 4, THR offers a look at the unlikely gift that all Oscar nominees receive.

PHOTOS: 120 Hours in Sundance

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST

BEST PICTURE
1. Argo (Warner Bros., 10/12, R, trailer)
PGA, SAG, HFPA, AFI, BFCA, IPA, DGA, WGA, BAFTAADG
2. Lincoln (DreamWorks, 11/9, PG-13, trailer)
AFI, PGA, SAG, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, ADG, ASC, CAS
3. Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Co., 11/21, R, trailer)
AFI, IPA, PGA, SAG, HFPA, BFCA, WGA, FI
4. Life of Pi (20th Century Fox, 11/21, PG, trailer)
AFI, PGA, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, ADG, ASC, VES
5. Zero Dark Thirty (Sony, 12/19, R, trailer)
NBR, NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC, AFI, PGA, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, ADG, CAS
6. Les Miserables (Universal, 12/25, PG-13, trailer)
AFI, PGA, SAG, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, DGA, BAFTA, ADG, ASC, CAS
7. Django Unchained (The Weinstein Co., 12/25, R, trailer)
AFI, PGA, HFPA, BFCA, ADG
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight, 6/27, PG-13, trailer)
AFI, PGA, BFCA, IPA, FI
9. Amour (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/19, PG-13, trailer)
LAFCA

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
HFPA, BFCA, IPA, DGA
2. David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
IPA, BFCA, FI
3. Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
HFPA, BFCA, DGA, BAFTA
4. Michael Haneke (Amour)
5. Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
FI
, IFP

BEST ACTOR
1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
SAG, HFPA, BFCA, NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, BAFTA
2. Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
HFPA, SAG, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA
3. Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
NBR, IPA, SAG, HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA, FI
4. Denzel Washington (Flight)
SAG, HFPA, BFCA, IPA
5. Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
LAFCA, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA

BEST ACTRESS
1. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
SAG, LAFCA, IPA, BFCA, BAFTA, FI
2. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
LAFCA, BSFC, NYFCO, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA
3. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
HFPA, BFCA, NBR, DCAC, SAG, IPA, BAFTA
4. Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
SAG, HFPA, BFCA
5. Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
BFCA, IFP

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
HFPA, BAFTA
2. Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
SAG, NYFCO, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA
3. Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
SAG, BFCA, IPA
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
BFCA, DCAC, SAG, HFPA, IPA
5. Alan Arkin (Argo)
SAG, HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
SAG, HFPA, BFCA, NYFCO, IPA, DCAC, BAFTA
2. Sally Field (Lincoln)
NYFCC, BSFC, SAG, HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA
3. Amy Adams (The Master)
LAFCA, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA
4. Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
SAG, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA, FI
5. Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
BFCA, NYFCC, BSFC, HFPA, IPA, WGA, BAFTA
2. Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)
NBR, DCAC, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, WGA, BAFTA, FI
3. Argo (Chris Terrio)
LAFCA, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, WGA, BAFTA
4. Life of Pi (David Magee)
BFCA, IPA, WGA, BAFTA
5. Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)
BAFTA

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA
2. Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)
NYFCO, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, WGA, BAFTA
3. Amour (Michael Haneke)
BAFTA
4. Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson)
BFCA, IPA, WGA, BAFTA, FI
5. Flight (John Gatins)
BFCA, IPA, WGA

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Brave (Pixar, 6/22, PG, trailer)
HFPA, PGA, IPA, BAFTA, BFCA, IAFS, CAS
2. Wreck-It Ralph (Disney, 11/2, PG, trailer)
PGA, NBR, HFPA, IPA, BFCA, IAFS, CAS
3. Frankenweenie (Disney, 10/5, PG, trailer)
NYFCC, LAFCA, BSFC, PGA, HFPA, IPA, BAFTA, BFCA, IAFS, CAS
4. ParaNorman (Focus Features, 8/17, PG, trailer)
DCAC, PGA, BAFTA, BFCA, IAFS
5. The Pirates! Band of Misfits (Sony Animation, 4/27, PG, trailer)
IAFS

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Searching for Sugar Man (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/27, PG-13, trailer)
PGA, NBR, IPA, IPA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, BFCA, CEH
2. The Gatekeepers (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/13, PG-13, clip)
LAFCA, PGA, IPA
3. How to Survive a Plague (Sundance Selects, 9/21, TBA, trailer)
BSFC, IFP, DGA, FI
4. 5 Broken Cameras (Kino Lorber, 5/30, NR, trailer)
FI
5. The Invisible War (Docurama, 6/22, NR, trailer)
IDA

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1. Austria, Amour
HFPA, BFCA, NBR, NYFCC, NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, BAFTA,   FI
2. Denmark, A Royal Affair
HFPA, BFCA, IPA
3. Canada, War Witch
IPA, FI

4. Norway, Kon-Tiki
HFPA, IPA
5.
Chile, No

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Life of Pi
NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
2. Lincoln
IPA, ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
3. Anna Karenina
IPA, ASC, BAFTA
4. Skyfall
LAFCA, IPA, ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
5. Django Unchained

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Anna Karenina
BFCA, IPA, BAFTA
2. Les Miserables
BFCA, IPA, BAFTA
3. Lincoln
BFCA, BAFTA
4. Snow White and the Huntsman
IPA, BAFTA
5. Mirror Mirror

BEST FILM EDITING
1. Argo
BFCA, BAFTA
2. Zero Dark Thirty
BFCA, LAFCA, IPA, BAFTA
3. Lincoln
BFCA
4. Life of Pi
BFCA, BAFTA
5. Silver Linings Playbook
IPA

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
BFCA, BAFTA
2. Les Miserables
BFCA, BAFTA
3. Hitchcock
BAFTA

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)
HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA
2. Lincoln (John Williams)
BFCA, HFPA, IPA, BAFTA
3. Argo (Alexandre Desplat)
IPA, HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA
4. Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli)
HFPA, IPA, BAFTA
5. Skyfall (Thomas Newman)
IPA, BAFTA

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. Skyfall ("Skyfall," performed by Adele)
HFPA, BFCA
2. Les Miserables ("Suddenly," performed by Hugh Jackman)
BFCA, HFPA
3. Ted ("Everybody Needs a Friend," performed by Norah Jones)
4. Chasing Ice ("Before My Time," performed by Joshua Bell and Scarlett Johansson)
5. Life of Pi ("Pi's Lullaby," performed by Bombay Jayashri)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Anna Karenina
BFCA, IPA, BAFTA, ADG
2. Lincoln
IPA, BFCA, BAFTA, ADG
3. Les Miserables
BFCA, IPA, BAFTA, ADG
4. Life of Pi
BFCA, BAFTA, ADG
5. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
BFCA, ADG

BEST SOUND EDITING
1. Skyfall
BAFTA, MPSE
2. Life of Pi
IPA, BAFTA
, MPSE
3. Argo
MPSE
4. Django Unchained
BAFTA
5. Zero Dark Thirty

BEST SOUND MIXING
1. Skyfall
CAS, BAFTA
2. Les Miserables
IPA, CAS, BAFTA
3. Life of Pi
IPA, BAFTA

4. Lincoln
CAS
5. Argo

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Life of Pi
BFCA, IPA, VES, BAFTA
2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
BFCA, VES, BAFTA
3. The Avengers
BFCA, VES, BAFTA
4. Prometheus
IPA, BAFTA, VES
5. Snow White and the Huntsman

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
1. Paperman (Disney)
2. Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare' (Gracie Films)
1. Adam and Dog (Lodge Films)
2. Head Over Heels (National Film and Television School)
5. Fresh Guacamole (PES)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1. Inocente (Shine Global, Inc.)
2. Open Heart (Urban Landscapes Inc.)
3. Kings Point (Kings Point Documentary, Inc.)
4. Mondays at Racine (Cynthia Wade Productions)
5. Redemption (Downtown Docs)

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
1. Asad (Hungry Man)
2. Buzkashi Boys (Afghan Film Project)
3. Curfew (Fuzzy Logic Pictures)
4. Death of a Shadow (Serendipity Films)
5. Henry (Yan England)

* * *

KEY

Contenders' names are followed, when appropriate, by acronyms of the major awards groups (see below) that have already named them winners (in orange) or nominees (in purple). Some nominations are still pending (they appear in italics).

ACE = 63rd Eddie Awards (Feb. 16, 2013)

ADG = 17th Art Directors Guild Awards (Feb. 2, 2013)

AFI = 13th American Film Institute Awards (TBA)

ASC = 27th American Society of Cinematographers Awards (TBA)

BAFTA = 66th British Academy Film Awards (Feb. 10, 2013)

BFCA = 18th Critics' Choice Awards (Jan. 10, 2013)

BSFC = 33rd Boston Society of Film Critics Awards (Dec. 9, 2012)

CAS = 49th Cinema Audio Society Awards (Feb. 16, 2013)

CDG = 15th Costume Design Guild Awards (Feb. 19, 2013)

CEH = 6th Cinema Eye Honors (Jan. 9, 2013)

DCAC = 11th Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Awards (Dec. 10, 2012)

DGA = 65th Directors Guild of America Awards (TBA)

FI = 26th Independent Spirit Awards

HFPA = 70th Golden Globe Awards (Jan. 13, 2013)

IAFS = 40th Annie Awards (TBA)

IDA = 28th International Documentary Association Awards (Dec. 7, 2012)

IFP = 22nd Gotham Independent Film Awards (Nov. 26, 2012)

IPA = 17th Satellite Awards (Dec. 16, 2012)

LAFCA = 38th Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards (TBA)

MPSE = 60th Golden Reel Awards (Feb. 17, 2013)

NBR = 84th National Board of Review Awards (TBA)

NSFC = 47th National Society of Film Critics Awards (TBA)

NYFCC = 78th New York Film Critics Circle Awards (TBA)

NYFCO = 12th New York Film Critics Online Awards (Dec. 9, 2012)

PGA = 24th Producers Guild of America Awards (Jan. 26, 2013)

SAG = 19th Screen Actors Guild Awards (Jan. 27, 2013)

USC = 25th USC Scripter Awards (TBA)

VES = 11th Visual Effects Society Awards (Feb. 5, 2013)

WGA = 65th Writers Guild of America Awards (Feb. 17, 2013)

* * *

ABOUT SCOTT FEINBERG AND THE "FEINBERG FORECAST"

Scott Feinberg is one of the film industry's most trusted awards analysts and has one of the world's best track records at forecasting the Oscars, something that he has been doing since 2001. His best showings came in 2006 (when he correctly called 21 of 24 winners) and 2004 (when he correctly called 20 of 24 winners). He was the only pundit to project long-shot best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011).

Scott factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings at festivals or elsewhere), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated with the Academy), precursor awards (some awards groups have better track records than others of correlating with the Academy) and regular conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters).