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JAN
20
2 YEARS

FEINBERG FORECAST: Updated Projections (With 5 Weeks Until the 85th Oscars)

THR's awards analyst recaps the most important awards-related news of the past week and offers his latest category-by-category assessment of the Oscar race.

Zero Dark Thirty Jessica Chastain Night - H 2013
Jonathan Olley/Columbia Pictures
"Zero Dark Thirty"

Every week through the Oscars on Feb. 24, The Hollywood Reporter's awards analyst Scott Feinberg will release a new "Feinberg Forecast," a post in which he recaps the most noteworthy awards-related news of the past week and shares his latest assessment of the standings in each of the major awards categories. (For more information about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, as well as a key for the various colors and acronyms that appear throughout them, scroll to the bottom of this post.)

NOTEWORTHY DEVELOPMENTS SINCE LAST WEEK'S FORECAST

It has been an unusually quiet week for the awards season. Much of the film industry is at the Sundance Film Festival in Park City hoping to find the next Beasts of the Southern Wild -- which premiered there last year and is now Oscar-nominated for best picture, best director, best actress and best adapted screenplay -- or the second inauguration of President Barack Obama (Harvey Weinstein is among the Hollywood power players in D.C. for Monday's public festivities. And many others in the industry are preoccupied with the NFL playoffs and/or the return of professional hockey, not to mention the return of warm weather to Los Angeles. But not everything awards-related came to a standstill...

  • Best actress Oscar nominee Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) hosted the first episode of the new season of Saturday Night Live on Jan. 19, generating strong ratings. While massive exposure -- for her individually and for her film, ads for which were run during the show -- are probably helpful, the focus of much of the postshow discussion is probably not. Lawrence, during her opening monologue, playfully ridiculed the Oscar prospects of her fellow nominees ("Jessica Chast-ain't gonna happen on my watch"), but, coming on the heels of her largely misunderstood Golden Globes acceptance speech ("I beat Meryl!" was an homage to The First Wives Club that didn't register for most people), some have suggested that she is coming across as arrogant, which she cannot afford to do in a tight race, especially when ...
  • Best actress Oscar nominee Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) ruled the holiday weekend at the box office -- or at least two of her films did, with the horror flick Mama taking the top spot with a projected four-day gross of $33.2 million and Zero Dark Thirty, last week's No. 1, holding relatively steady with a projected four-day gross of $21.4 million, good enough for second place. But Lawrence's film, Silver Linings Playbook, continued to expand into more theaters and, on the heels of its historic Oscar nominations showing (it became the first film in 31 years to score a nom in all four acting categories), is projected to gross $14.2 million over the four-day weekend, good enough for third place. As THR's box-office analyst Pamela McClintock notes, "Many box-office observers had thought Harvey Weinstein made a fatal mistake in deciding not to open the film nationwide in November, opting instead for a limited rollout."
  • Meanwhile, writer-director Quentin Tarantino, a best original screenplay -- but not best director -- Oscar nominee for Django Unchained, celebrated a personal milestone, as his pre-Civil War spaghetti Western surpassed Inglourious Basterds (2009) to become his highest-grossing film at the North American box office. Basterds grossed $120 million in its entire run; Django has taken in more than $138 million in its first four weeks!
  • Amour, the French-language Austrian film that has been nominated for the best picture, best director (Michael Haneke), best actress (Emmanuelle Riva) and best original screenplay (Haneke) Oscars, was named the winner of the London Film Critics' Award in all of those categories save for director, which was awarded to best director Oscar nominee Ang Lee (Life of Pi). Three other major categories also were won by Oscar nominees: The Master co-stars Joaquin Phoenix and Philip Seymour Hoffman won best actor and best supporting actor, respectively; Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) won best supporting actress. But the best documentary and best foreign-language film prizes were won by films that the Academy passed on, The Imposter and France's Rust and Bone, respectively.
  • Best actress Oscar nominee Naomi Watts (The Impossible) was at Sundance to celebrate the world premiere of Anne Fontaine's Two Mothers, a controversial film in which she stars alongside Robin Wright Penn. Before the film's first screening, she was feted at a celebration hosted by THR editorial director Janice Min, which was also attended by actors Kyle MacLachlan and Danai Gurira (star of TV's The Walking Dead and this year's Sundance indie Mother of George), indie producer Jonathan Schwartz (who re-teamed with his Like Crazy writer-director Drake Doremus and star Felicity Jones, plus Guy Pearce and MacLachlan, for the Sundance entry Breathe In), Fontaine and others. I was lucky enough to fly in for the event and visit a bit with Watts, who lamented the fact that she will just miss overlapping in Park City with her dear friend and fellow Aussie A-lister Nicole Kidman, the star of Sundance entry Stoker and THR's Sundance Issue cover girl. (Coincidentally, both will each be playing princesses in upcoming films: Watts will play Princess Diana of Wales in Diana, and Kidman will play Princess Grace [Kelly] of Monaco in Grace of Monaco.)
  • On Jan. 17, the Costume Designers Guild, announced their nominees for the 15th CDG Awards. Best costume design Oscar nominees Anna Karenina, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Mirror Mirror (a posthumous nom for Eiko Ishioka) and Snow White and the Huntsman all also were nominated in by the CDG either the period or fantasy film categories. As has become common in recent decades but was not always the case, no films that primarily employed contemporary costumes -- including those nominated in that category by the CDG, Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Silver Linings Playbook, Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty -- were nominated by the Academy.
  • On Jan. 17, the Motion Picture Sound Editors announced their nominees for the 60th Golden Reel Awards. Best sound editing Oscar nominees Argo, Life of Pi and Skyfall -- as well as The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, which was denied an Oscar nom -- led the field with three Golden Reel noms each, for outstanding sound editing in the feature film categories of sound effects and Foley, dialogue and ADR and music. The other two Oscar nominees, Django Unchained and Zero Dark Thirty, met very different fates: Django received two noms, whereas Zero Dark Thirty received none.
  • Also worth your time: THR features editor Stephen Galloway and I wrote about the widespread outrage that exists over the failure of the Academy's directors' branch to nominate Ben Affleck (Argo) for the best director Oscar, and THR film editor Gregg Kilday and I taped a video about the uncertainty about the best picture Oscar race created by the directors' branch's snub of not only Affleck but also fellow directors Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty), Tom Hooper (Les Miserables) and the aforementioned Tarantino.
  • Coming up after Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Jan. 21: The 28th Santa Barbara International Film Festival will get under way on Jan. 24. Affleck will receive SBIFF's Modern Master Award on Jan. 25, and on Jan. 26 best actor Oscar nominee Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) will receive its Montecito Award after a 90-minute Q&A that I will be moderating. That same night, the Producers Guild of America will become the first of the guilds to weigh in on this awards season; the Screen Actors Guild will reveal its winners Jan. 27.

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST

BEST PICTURE
1. Lincoln (DreamWorks, 11/9, PG-13, trailer)
AFI, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA, BAFTA, ADG, ASC, CAS
2. Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Co., 11/21, R, trailer)
AFI, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, PGA, SAG, WGA, FI
3. Argo (Warner Bros., 10/12, R, trailer)
HFPA, AFI, BFCA, IPA, PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA, BAFTAADG
4. Life of Pi (20th Century Fox, 11/21, PG, trailer)
AFI, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, PGA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, ADG, ASC, VES
5. Zero Dark Thirty (Sony, 12/19, R, trailer)
NBR, NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC, AFI, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, PGA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, ADG, CAS
6. Les Miserables (Universal, 12/25, PG-13, trailer)
AFI, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, PGA, DGA, SAG, BAFTA, ADG, ASC, CAS
7. Django Unchained (The Weinstein Co., 12/25, R, trailer)
AFI, HFPA, BFCA, PGA, ADG
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight, 6/27, PG-13, trailer)
AFI, BFCA, PGA, IPA, FI
9. Amour (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/19, PG-13, trailer)
LAFCA

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
HFPA, BFCA, IPA, DGA
2. David O. Russell
IPA, BFCA, FI
3. Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
HFPA, BFCA, DGA, BAFTA
4. Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
FI
, IFP
5. Michael Haneke (Amour)

BEST ACTOR
1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
HFPA, BFCA, NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, BAFTA, SAG
2. Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
HFPA, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA, SAG
3. Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
NBR, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA, SAG, FI
4. Denzel Washington (Flight)
HFPA, BFCA, IPA, SAG
5. Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
LAFCA, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA

BEST ACTRESS
1. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
HFPA, LAFCA, IPA, BFCA, BAFTA, SAG, FI
2. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
HFPA, BFCA, NBR, DCAC, IPA, BAFTA, SAG
3. Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
HFPA, BFCA, SAG
4. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
LAFCA, BSFC, NYFCO, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA
5. Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
BFCA, IFP

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
HFPA, BAFTA
2. Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
NYFCO, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA, SAG
3. Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
BFCA, IPA, SAG
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
BFCA, DCAC, HFPA, IPA, SAG
5. Alan Arkin (Argo)
HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA, SAG

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
HFPA, BFCA, NYFCO, IPA, DCAC, BAFTA, SAG
2. Sally Field (Lincoln)
NYFCC, BSFC, HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA, SAG
3. Amy Adams (The Master)
LAFCA, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA
4. Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
HFPA, BFCA, IPA, BAFTA, SAG, FI
5. Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
BFCA, NYFCC, BSFC, HFPA, IPA, WGA, BAFTA
2. Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)
NBR, DCAC, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, WGA, BAFTA, FI
3. Argo (Chris Terrio)
LAFCA, HFPA, BFCA, IPA, WGA, BAFTA
4. Life of Pi (David Magee)
BFCA, IPA, WGA, BAFTA
5. Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)
BAFTA

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA
2. Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)
NYFCO, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, WGA, BAFTA
3. Amour (Michael Haneke)
BAFTA
4. Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson)
BFCA, IPA, WGA, BAFTA, FI
5. Flight (John Gatins)
BFCA, IPA, WGA

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Brave (Pixar, 6/22, PG, trailer)
HFPA, IPA, BAFTA, BFCA, IAFS, CAS
2. Frankenweenie (Disney, 10/5, PG, trailer)
NYFCC, LAFCA, BSFC, HFPA, IPA, BAFTA, BFCA, IAFS, CAS
3. ParaNorman (Focus Features, 8/17, PG, trailer)
DCAC, BAFTA, BFCA, IAFS
4. Wreck-It Ralph (Disney, 11/2, PG, trailer)
NBR, HFPA, IPA, BFCA, IAFS, CAS
5. The Pirates! Band of Misfits (Sony Animation, 4/27, PG, trailer)
IAFS

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Searching for Sugar Man (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/27, PG-13, trailer)
NBR, IPA, IPA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, BFCA, CEH
2. The Gatekeepers (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/13, PG-13, clip)
LAFCA, IPA
3. How to Survive a Plague (Sundance Selects, 9/21, TBA, trailer)
BSFC, IFP, DGA, FI
4. 5 Broken Cameras (Kino Lorber, 5/30, NR, trailer)
FI
5. The Invisible War (Docurama, 6/22, NR, trailer)
IDA

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1. Austria, Amour
HFPA, NBR, NYFCC, NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, BAFTA, BFCA, FI
2. Denmark, A Royal Affair
HFPA, IPA, BFCA
3. Canada, War Witch
IPA, FI

4. Norway, Kon-Tiki
HFPA, IPA
5.
Chile, No

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Life of Pi
NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
2. Lincoln
IPA, ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
3. Anna Karenina
IPA, ASC, BAFTA
4. Skyfall
LAFCA, IPA, ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
5. Django Unchained

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Anna Karenina
IPA, BAFTA, BFCA
2. Les Miserables
IPA, BAFTA, BFCA
3. Lincoln BAFTA, BFCA
4. Snow White and the Huntsman
IPA, BAFTA
5. Mirror Mirror

BEST FILM EDITING
1. Zero Dark Thirty
BFCA, LAFCA, IPA, BAFTA
2. Argo
BFCA, BAFTA
3. Lincoln
BFCA
4. Life of Pi
BFCA, BAFTA
5. Silver Linings Playbook
IPA

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
BFCA, BAFTA
2. Les Miserables
BFCA, BAFTA
3. Hitchcock
BAFTA

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)
HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA
2. Lincoln (John Williams)
BFCA, HFPA, IPA, BAFTA
3. Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli)
HFPA, IPA, BAFTA
4. Argo (Alexandre Desplat)
IPA, HFPA, BFCA, BAFTA
5. Skyfall (Thomas Newman)
IPA, BAFTA

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. Skyfall ("Skyfall," performed by Adele)
HFPA, BFCA
2. Les Miserables ("Suddenly," performed by Hugh Jackman)
BFCA, HFPA
3. Chasing Ice ("Before My Time," performed by Joshua Bell and Scarlett Johansson)
4. Ted ("Everybody Needs a Friend," performed by Norah Jones)
5. Life of Pi ("Pi's Lullaby," performed by Bombay Jayashri)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Anna Karenina
IPA, BAFTA, BFCA, ADG
2. Lincoln
IPA, BAFTA, BFCA, ADG
3. Les Miserables
IPA, BAFTA, BFCA, ADG
4. Life of Pi
BAFTA, BFCA, ADG
5. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
BFCA, ADG

BEST SOUND EDITING
1. Skyfall
BAFTA, MPSE
2. Life of Pi
IPA, BAFTA
, MPSE
3. Argo
MPSE
4. Django Unchained
BAFTA
5. Zero Dark Thirty

BEST SOUND MIXING
1. Skyfall
CAS, BAFTA
2. Les Miserables
IPA, CAS, BAFTA
3. Life of Pi
IPA, BAFTA

4. Lincoln
CAS
5. Argo

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Life of Pi
BFCA, IPA, VES, BAFTA
2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
BFCA, VES, BAFTA
3. The Avengers
BFCA, VES, BAFTA
4. Prometheus
IPA, BAFTA, VES
5. Snow White and the Huntsman

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
1. Adam and Dog (Lodge Films)
2. Head Over Heels (National Film and Television School)
3. Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare' (Gracie Films)
4. Paperman (Disney)
5. Fresh Guacamole (PES)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1. Inocente (Shine Global, Inc.)
2. Open Heart (Urban Landscapes Inc.)
3. Kings Point (Kings Point Documentary, Inc.)
4. Mondays at Racine (Cynthia Wade Productions)
5. Redemption (Downtown Docs)

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
1. Asad (Hungry Man)
2. Buzkashi Boys (Afghan Film Project)
3. Curfew (Fuzzy Logic Pictures)
4. Death of a Shadow (Serendipity Films)
5. Henry (Yan England)

* * *

KEY

Contenders' names are followed, when appropriate, by acronyms of the major awards groups (see below) that have already named them winners (in orange) or nominees (in purple). Some nominations are still pending (they appear in italics).

ACE = 63rd Eddie Awards (Feb. 16, 2013)

ADG = 17th Art Directors Guild Awards (Feb. 2, 2013)

AFI = 13th American Film Institute Awards (TBA)

ASC = 27th American Society of Cinematographers Awards (TBA)

BAFTA = 66th British Academy Film Awards (Feb. 10, 2013)

BFCA = 18th Critics' Choice Awards (Jan. 10, 2013)

BSFC = 33rd Boston Society of Film Critics Awards (Dec. 9, 2012)

CAS = 49th Cinema Audio Society Awards (Feb. 16, 2013)

CDG = 15th Costume Design Guild Awards (Feb. 19, 2013)

CEH = 6th Cinema Eye Honors (Jan. 9, 2013)

DCAC = 11th Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Awards (Dec. 10, 2012)

DGA = 65th Directors Guild of America Awards (TBA)

FI = 26th Independent Spirit Awards

HFPA = 70th Golden Globe Awards (Jan. 13, 2013)

IAFS = 40th Annie Awards (TBA)

IDA = 28th International Documentary Association Awards (Dec. 7, 2012)

IFP = 22nd Gotham Independent Film Awards (Nov. 26, 2012)

IPA = 17th Satellite Awards (Dec. 16, 2012)

LAFCA = 38th Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards (TBA)

MPSE = 60th Golden Reel Awards (Feb. 17, 2013)

NBR = 84th National Board of Review Awards (TBA)

NSFC = 47th National Society of Film Critics Awards (TBA)

NYFCC = 78th New York Film Critics Circle Awards (TBA)

NYFCO = 12th New York Film Critics Online Awards (Dec. 9, 2012)

PGA = 24th Producers Guild of America Awards (Jan. 26, 2013)

SAG = 19th Screen Actors Guild Awards (Jan. 27, 2013)

USC = 25th USC Scripter Awards (TBA)

VES = 11th Visual Effects Society Awards (Feb. 5, 2013)

WGA = 65th Writers Guild of America Awards (Feb. 17, 2013)

* * *

ABOUT SCOTT FEINBERG AND THE "FEINBERG FORECAST"

Scott Feinberg is one of the film industry's most trusted awards analysts and has one of the world's best track records at forecasting the Oscars, something that he has been doing since 2001. His best showings came in 2006 (when he correctly called 21 of 24 winners) and 2004 (when he correctly called 20 of 24 winners). He was the only pundit to project long-shot best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011).

Scott factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings at festivals or elsewhere), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated with the Academy), precursor awards (some awards groups have better track records than others of correlating with the Academy) and regular conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters).