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FEINBERG FORECAST: Who's Up and Who's Down With Just Two Weeks Before the 86th Oscars

The only other honors still to be presented: the Independent Spirit Awards, Cinema Audio Society Awards, Costume Designers Guild Awards and Satellite Awards.

Jennifer Lawrence American Hustle Set - H 2014
Courtesy of Sony
A candid shot of Jennifer Lawrence preparing for a scene on the set of "American Hustle."

Between now and the 86th Oscars on March 2, 2014, The Hollywood Reporter's lead awards analyst, Scott Feinberg, will post only one additional "Feinberg Forecast," which will reflect his final projections in all 24 categories. For more about Feinberg and how he arrives at his picks, as well as a key to the acronyms that appear in this post, scroll to the bottom of this page.

RELATED: Fill Out Your Oscar Ballot

BEST PICTURE
Nominees
1. 12 Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight, 10/18, R, trailer)
PGA, BAFTA, HFPA, BFCA, AFI, BSFC, TIFF, SAG, DGA, ACE, ADG, ASC, MPSE, IFP, FI, CDG
2. Gravity (Warner Bros., 10/4, PG-13, trailer)
DGA, PGA, ADG, ASC, MPSE, VES, AFI, LAFCA (tie), BAFTA, HFPA, BFCA, ACE, CAS
3. American Hustle (Sony, 12/13, TBA, trailer)
SAG, ACE, AFI, NYFCC, DGA, PGA, WGA, BAFTA, HFPA, BFCA, ADG, MPSE, CDG
4. The Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount, 12/25, R, trailer)
AFI, DGA, PGA, WGA, HFPA, BFCA, ACE, ADG
5. Philomena (The Weinstein Co., TBA, TBA, trailer)
BAFTA, HFPA, FI, CDG
6. Captain Phillips (Sony, 10/11, PG-13, trailer)
WGA, ACE, MPSE, AFI, DGA, PGA, BAFTA, HFPA, BFCA, ADG, ASC, VES, CAS
7.
Nebraska (Paramount, 11/22, R, trailer)
AFI, PGA, WGA,
HFPA, BFCA, ACE, ASC, FI, CDG

8. Dallas Buyers Club (Focus Features, 11/1, R, trailer)
SAG, PGA, WGA, BFCA,
CDG
9.
Her (Warner Bros., 12/18, TBA, trailer)
WGA, ADG, AFINBR, LAFCA (tie), PGA, HFPA, BFCA, ACE, MPSE, CDG

BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees
1. Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity) DGA, BAFTA,
HFPA, BFCA,
LAFCA, NYFCO
2. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave) NYFCC, BSFC, DGA, BAFTA, HFPA, BFCA, FI
3. David O. Russell (American Hustle) DGA, BAFTA, HFPA, BFCA
4.
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street) DGA, BAFTA, BFCA
5. Alexander Payne (Nebraska) HFPA, FI

BEST LEADING ACTOR
Nominees
1.
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) SAG, HFPA, BFCA, IFP, HFA, FI
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) BAFTA, BSFC, NYFCO, SAG, HFPA, BFCA, IFP, FI
3. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street) HFPA, BAFTA
4. Bruce Dern (Nebraska) NBR
, LAFCA, CAN, SAG, BAFTA
, HFPA, BFCA, FI
5.
Christian Bale (American Hustle) BAFTA, HFPA
,
BFCAPHOTOS: PHO

PHOTOS: Leonardo DiCaprio, Meryl Streep and Other Actor Nominees Spill Secrets Behind Their Roles

BEST LEADING ACTRESS
Nominees
1.
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) SAG, BAFTA, HFPA, BFCA, LAFCA (tie), NYFCC, NSFC, BSFC, NYFCO, IFP, FI
2. Judi Dench (Philomena) SAG, BAFTA, HFPA, BFCA
3. Amy Adams (American Hustle) HFPA, SAG, BAFTA
4. Sandra Bullock (Gravity) HFA, SAG, BAFTA, HFPA, BFCA
5. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County) SAG, HFPA, BFCA

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees
1.
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) SAG, HFPA, BFCA, LAFCA (tie), NYFCC, NYFCO, FI
2. Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave) SAG, BAFTA, HFPA, BFCA, FI
3. Bradley Cooper (American Hustle) BAFTA, HFPA, BFCA
4.
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips) BAFTA, SAG, HFPA, BFCA
5. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees
1. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) BAFTA, HFPA, NYFCC, NSFC, SAG, BFCA
2. Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave) SAG, BFCA, LAFCA, NYFCO, BAFTA, HFPA, FI
3. June Squibb (Nebraska) BSFC, SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, HFPA, FI

4. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County) HFA, SAG, BAFTA, BFCA, HFPA
5. Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine) HFPA
, BAFTA, FI

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees
1.
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley) BFCA, USC, SC, BAFTA, HFPA, FI
2. Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope) BAFTA, HFPA, BFCA, USC
3. The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter) NBR,
WGA, BAFTA, BFCA, SC
4.
Captain Phillips (Billy Ray) WGA, BAFTA, BFCA, USC, SC
5. Before Midnight (Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater) LAFCA, NSFC, HFA, WGA, BFCA, SC, FI

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees
1.
American Hustle (David O. Russell, Eric Singer) BAFTA, NYFCC, WGA, HFPA, BFCA, SC
2. Her (Spike Jonze) WGA, BFCA, HFPA, NYFCO, SC
3.
Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen) WGA, BAFTA, BFCA, SC, FI
4. Nebraska (Bob Nelson) WGA, BAFTA, HFPA, BFCA, SC
5. Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack) WGA

PHOTOS: 30 Years of Oscar Hosts

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees
1.
Frozen (Disney, 11/27, G, trailer) IAFS, BAFTA, PGA, BFCA, HFPA, ACE, VES, MPSE
2. The Croods (DreamWorks Animation, 3/22, PG, trailer) IAFS, PGA, HFPA, BFCA, ACE, MPSE, VES
3. The Wind Rises (Studio Ghibili, 11/8, PG-13, trailer) NBR, NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, IAFS, BFCA
4. Despicable Me 2 (Universal, 7/3, PG, trailer) IAFS, BAFTA, PGA, HFPA, BFCA, ACE, MPSE, VES

5. Ernest & Celestine (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer) LAFCA, IAFS, MPSE

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nominees
1. 20 Feet From Stardom (RADiUS, 6/14, PG-13, trailer) BFCA,
ACE, MPSE, FI
2. The Square (Noujaim Films/Netflix Originals/Participant, 10/25, NR, TBA) DGA, IDA, FI
3. The Act of Killing (Drafthouse Films, 7/19, NR, trailer) BAFTA, CEH, IFP, NSFC, EFA, NYFCO, BSFC, DGA, BFCA, IDA, FI
4. Cutie and the Boxer (RADiUS, 8/16, R, trailer) DGA, IDA, CEH
5.
Dirty Wars (IFC Films, 6/7, NR, trailer) MPSE, WGA 

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Nominees
1.
Italy (The Great Beauty) BAFTA, HFPA, EFA, BFCA, FI
2. Denmark (The Hunt) HFPA, BFCA, FI
3. Palestine (Omar)
4. Belgium (The Broken Circle Breakdown)
5. Cambodia (The Missing Picture)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees
1.
Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki) ASC, BAFTA, BFCA, LAFCA, BSFC, BFCA, IPA
2. Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael) ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
3.
Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel) NYFCC, NSFC, BAFTA, BFCA, ASC, FI, IPA
3. Prisoners (Roger Deakins) ASC, BFCA, IPA
5. The Grandmaster (Philippe Le Sourd) ASC

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees
1. American Hustle (Michael Wilkinson) BAFTA, BFCA, CDG
2. The Great Gatsby (Catherine Martin) BAFTA, BFCA
, CDG
3.  12 Years a Slave (Patricia Norris) BAFTA, BFCA, CDG
4.
The Invisible Woman (Michael O'Connor) BAFTA
5. The Grandmaster (William Chang Suk Ping)

PHOTOS: BAFTA Awards Red Carpet Arrivals

BEST FILM EDITING
Nominees
1. Captain Phillips (Christopher Rouse) BAFTA, BFCA
, ACE
2. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron, Mark Sanger) BFCA, LAFCA, BAFTA, ACE,, IPA
3. 12 Years a Slave (Joe Walker) BAFTA, BFCA, ACE, IPA
4. American Hustle (Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers) BFCA, ACE, IPA
5. Dallas Buyers Club (John Mac McMurphy [Jean-Marc Vallee], Martin Pensa)

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Nominees
1.
Dallas Buyers Club
(Adruitha Lee, Robin Mathews) MUHS
2. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa (Stephen Prouty) MUHS
3. The Lone Ranger (Joel Harlow, Gloria Pasqua-Casny) MUHS

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Nominees
1. Gravity (Steven Price) BAFTA, BFCA, HFPA

2. Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)
3. Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman) BAFTA, BFCA
4. The Book Thief (John Williams) BAFTA, HFPA
5. Her (William Butler, Owen Pallett)

PHOTOS: 6 Actors on Mistakes, Sacrifices, and Strange Auditions

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Nominees
1.
"Let It Go" from Frozen (Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez) HFPA, BFCA
2. "Ordinary Love" from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (U2) HFPA, BFCA
3. "Happy" from Despicable Me 2 (Pharrell Williams)
BFCA
4. "The Moon Song" from Her (Karen O, Spike Jonze)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nominees
1. The Great Gatsby (Beverly Dunn, Catherine Martin) ADG, BAFTA, BFCA
,
IPA
2. Gravity (Rosie Goodwin, Andy Nicholson)
ADG, BAFTA, BFCA
3. 12 Years a Slave (Alice Baker, Adam Stockhausen) ADG, BAFTA, BFCA
4. Her (K.K. Barrett, Gene Serdena)
ADG, LAFCA, BFCA
5.
American Hustle (Judy Becker, Heather Loeffler) ADG

BEST SOUND EDITING
Nominees
1.
Gravity (Glenn Freemantle) MPSE, BAFTA

2. Captain Phillips (Oliver Tarney) MPSE, BAFTA
3. Lone Survivor (Wylie Stateman) MPSE
4. All Is Lost (Steve Boeddeker, Richard Hymns) BAFTA, MPSE
5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Brent Burge) MPSE

BEST SOUND MIXING
Nominees
1.
Gravity (Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, Skip Lievsay, Chris Munro) BAFTA,
CAS
2. Captain Phillips (Chris Burdon, Chris Munro, Mike Prestwood Smith, Mark Taylor) BAFTA, CAS
3. Lone Survivor (Beau Borders, David Brownlow, Andy Koyama) CAS
4. Inside Llewyn Davis (Peter F. Kurland, Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff) BAFTA,
CAS
5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Tony Johnson, Michael Semanick)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees
1. Gravity (Neil Corbould, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk, Tim Webber) VES, BAFTA, BFCA

2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (David Clayton, Joe Letteri, Eric Reynolds, Eric Saindon) VES, BAFTA, BFCA
3. Iron Man 3
(Erik Nash, Dan Sudick, Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams) VES, BAFTA, BFCA
4.
Star Trek Into Darkness (Burt Dalton, Ben Grossman, Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach) VES, BAFTA, BFCA
5. The Lone Ranger (Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, John Frazier, Edson Williams)

PHOTOS: 6 Top Actresses on Fears, Sacrifices and Greatest Advice

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Nominees
1.
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life (Malcolm Clarke, Nicholas Reed)
2. Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall (Edgar Barens)
3. Facing Fear (Jason Cohen)

4. Karama Has No Walls (Sara Ishaq)
5. CaveDigger (Jeffrey Karoff)

The best animated short and best live-action short categories will be added... shortly!

About the Feinberg Forecast

Scott has been forecasting the Oscars since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records of all awards pundits at doing so. His best showings came in 2006 and 2013, when he correctly called 21 out of 24 winners. He was the only pundit to project best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011) and acting noms for Silver Linings Playbook's Jacki Weaver (2012) and The Wolf of Wall Street's Jonah Hill (2013), among other long shots.

He factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings of hundreds of films each year), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others), and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

Key

Contenders' names are followed, when appropriate, by acronyms of the major awards groups (see below) that have already named them winners (in orange) or nominees (in purple). Some nominations are still pending (they appear in italics).

ACE = 64th Eddie Awards

ADG = 18th Art Directors Guild Awards

AFI = 14th American Film Institute Awards

ASC = 28th American Society of Cinematographers Awards

BAFTA = 67th British Academy Film Awards

BFCA = 19th Critics' Choice Movie Awards

BSFC = 34th Boston Society of Film Critics Awards

BIFA = 16th British Independent Film Awards

CAN = 66th Cannes Film Festival

CAS = 50th Cinema Audio Society Awards

CDG = 16th Costume Design Guild Awards

CEH = 7th Cinema Eye Honors

DCAC = 12th D.C. Area Film Critics Awards

DGA = 66th Directors Guild of America Awards

EFA = 26th European Film Awards

FI = 29th Independent Spirit Awards

HFA = 17th Hollywood Film Awards

HFPA = 71st Golden Globe Awards

IAFS = 41st Annie Awards

IDA = 29th International Documentary Association Awards

IFP = 23rd Gotham Independent Film Awards

IPA = 18th Satellite Awards

LAFCA = 39th Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards

MPSE = 61st Golden Reel Awards

 MUHS = ? Makeup Artists and Hair Stylists Guild Awards 

NBR = 85th National Board of Review Awards

NSFC = 48th National Society of Film Critics Awards

NYFCC = 79th New York Film Critics Circle Awards

NYFCO = 13th New York Film Critics Online Awards

PGA = 25th Producers Guild of America Awards

SAG = 20th Screen Actors Guild Awards

SC = 2nd Screenwriters Choice Awards

SUN = 29th Sundance Film Festival

TIFF = 38th Toronto International Film Festival

USC = 26th USC Scripter Awards

VES = 12th Visual Effects Society Awards

WGA = 66th Writers Guild of America Awards

Twitter: @ScottFeinberg