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DEC
15
2 YEARS

How Golden Globe, SAG Film Noms Will Impact the Oscar Race (Analysis)

Actors nominated for both a SAG award and a Golden Globe award almost always wind up with an Oscar nod, while actors nominated for neither almost never do.

The Help Film Still Jessica Chastain as Celia Foote - P 2011
Dreamworks

Over the past decade (2001-2010), only 15 performances were nominated by both the HFPA and SAG but not by the Academy (one or two a year, on average):

1. Hayden Christensen (Life as a House, 2001) for best supporting actor
2. Cameron Diaz (Vanilla Sky, 2001) for best supporting actress
3. Cate Blanchett (Bandits, 2002) for best actress or best supporting actress*
4. Richard Gere (Chicago, 2002) for best actor
5. Dennis Quaid (Far From Heaven, 2002) for best supporting actor
6. Evan Rachel Wood (Thirteen, 2003) for best actress
7. Maria Bello (The Cooler, 2003) for best supporting actress
8. Paul Giamatti (Sideways, 2004) for best actor
9. Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man, 2005) for best actor
10. Ziyi Zhang (Memoirs of a Geisha, 2005) for best actress
11. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed, 2006) for best actor or best supporting actor*
12. Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl, 2007) for best actor
13. Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart, 2007) for best actress
14. Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road, 2008) for best actress
15. Mila Kunis (Black Swan, 2010) for best supporting actress

*HFPA nominated for lead; SAG nominated for supporting

PHOTOS: 2012 Golden Globe Nominees

Over the past decade (2001-2010), only 12 performances were nominated by neither the HFPA nor SAG but were still nominated by AMPAS (one a year, on average):

1. Samantha Morton (In America, 2003) for best actress
2. Djimon Hounsou (In America, 2003) for best supporting actor
3. Shohreh Aghdashloo (House of Sand and Fog, 2003) for best supporting actress
4. Marcia Gay Harden (Mystic River, 2003) for best supporting actress
5. Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby, 2004) for best actor
6. Alan Alda (The Aviator, 2004) for best supporting actor
7. William Hurt (A History of Violence, 2005) for best supporting actor
8. Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah, 2007) for best actor
9. Laura Linney (The Savages, 2007) for best actress
10. Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road, 2008) for best supporting actor
11. Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart, 2009) for best supporting actress
12. Javier Bardem (Biutiful, 2010) for best actor

PHOTOS: 2012 SAG Award Nominees

Considering those numbers, this week's nominations represent…

GREAT NEWS

For these 2011 performances that were nominated by both the HFPA and SAG (although, based on history, one or two of the following still will not get an Academy nod):

George Clooney (The Descendants) for best actor
Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar) for best actor
Jean Dujardin (The Artist) for best actor
Brad Pitt (Moneyball) for best actor

Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) for best actress
Viola Davis (The Help) for best actress
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) for best actress
Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin) for best actress
Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn) for best actress

Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn) for best supporting actor
Jonah Hill (Moneyball) for best supporting actor
Christopher Plummer (Beginners) for best supporting actor

Berenice Bejo (The Artist) for best supporting actress
Jessica Chastain (The Help) for best supporting actress
Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs) for best supporting actress
Octavia Spencer (The Help) for best supporting actress

BAD NEWS 

For these 2011 performances that were nominated by neither the HFPA nor SAG (although, based on history, one or two of the following still will get an Academy nod):

Daniel Craig (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) for best actor
Matt Damon (We Bought a Zoo) for best actor
Ralph Fiennes (Coriolanus) for best actor
Paul Giamatti (Win Win) for best actor
Ryan Gosling (Drive) for best actor
Woody Harrelson (Rampart) for best actor
Thomas Horn (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) for best actor
Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy) for best actor
Michael Shannon (Take Shelter) for best actor
Martin Sheen (The Way) for best actor

Ellen Barkin (Another Happy Day) for best actress
Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia) for best actress
Felicity Jones (Like Crazy) for best actress
Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method) for best actress
Adepero Oduye (Pariah) for best actress
Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene) for best actress
Mia Wasikowska (Jane Eyre) for best actress
Michelle Yeoh (The Lady) for best actress

Jim Broadbent (The Iron Lady) for best supporting actor
John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene) for best supporting actor
Jeremy Irons (Margin Call) for best supporting actor
Ben Kingsley (Hugo) for best supporting actor
Patton Oswalt (Young Adult) for best supporting actor
Brad Pitt (The Tree of Life) for best supporting actor
John C. Reilly (Carnage) for best supporting actor
Andy Serkis (Rise of the Planet of the Apes) for best supporting actor
Kevin Spacey (Margin Call) for best supporting actor
Corey Stoll (Midnight in Paris) for best supporting actor
Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) for best supporting actor
Christoph Waltz (Carnage) for best supporting actor

Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) for best supporting actress
Jessica Chastain (The Tree of Life) for best supporting actress
Marion Cotillard (Midnight in Paris) for best supporting actress
Judi Dench (J. Edgar) for best supporting actress
Judi Dench (My Week with Marilyn) for best supporting actress
Judy Greer (The Descendants) for best supporting actress
Carey Mulligan (Shame) for best supporting actress
Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus) for best supporting actress
Evan Rachel Wood (The Ides of March) for best supporting actress

MIXED NEWS 

For these 2011 performances that were nominated by either the HFPA or SAG, but not by both (based on history, the numbers fluctuate greatly in terms of how many still will get an Academy nod):

Demian Bichir (A Better Life) for best actor
Michael Fassbender (Shame) for best actor
Brendan Gleeson (The Guard) for best actor
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (50/50) for best actor
Ryan Gosling (Crazy Stupid Love) for best actor
Ryan Gosling (The Ides of March) for best actor
Owen Wilson (Midnight in Paris) for best actor

Jodie Foster (Carnage) for best actress
Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) for best actress
Charlize Theron (Young Adult) for best actress
Kristen Wiig (Bridesmaids) for best actress
Kate Winslet (Carnage) for best actress

Albert Brooks (Drive) for best supporting actor
Armie Hammer (J. Edgar) for best supporting actor
Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method) for best supporting actor
Nick Nolte (Warrior) for best supporting actor

Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) for best supporting actress
Shailene Woodley (The Descendants) for best supporting actress