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JAN
16
2 YEARS

FEINBERG FORECAST: Flurry of Nominations and Awards Leave an Altered Oscar Landscape

THR's awards analyst Scott Feinberg offers his first charts since NBR, BFCA, HFPA shows, ASC, VES, DGA Doc noms and makeup short-list announcement.

The Descendants
Fox Searchlight Pictures

What follows is my latest assessment of all of the high-profile Oscar categories, along with a list of the major precursor awards it has won (in orange) and/or for which it has been nominated (in purple) -- some nominations, of course, are still pending. I welcome your thoughts in the comments section at the bottom of the post.

BEST PICTURE
Frontrunners
The Artist (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, PG-13, trailer) BFCA, HFPA, NYFCC, PGA, SAG, ACE, ADG, ASC
The Help (Disney, 8/12, PG-13, trailer) NBR, AFI, PGA, SAG, WGA, ADG, BFCA, HFPA
The Descendants (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, R, trailer) HFPA, AFI, LAFCA, PGA, SAG, WGA, ACE, ADG, BFCA
Hugo (Paramount, 11/23, PG, trailer) NBR, AFI, PGA, WGA, ACE, ADG, ASC, BFCA, HFPA
Midnight in Paris (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/20, PG-13, trailer) AFI, PGA, SAG, WGA, BFCA, HFPA, ACE
War Horse (Disney, 12/25, PG-13, trailer) PGA, BFCA, HFPA, ACE
Moneyball (Columbia, 9/23, PG-13, trailer) AFI, PGA, WGA, BFCA, HFPA, ACE
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Warner Bros., 12/25, PG-13, trailer) ADG, BFCA
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Sony, 12/21, R, trailer) AFI, PGA, WGA, ACE, ADG, ASC
The Tree of Life (Fox Searchlight, 5/27, PG-13, trailer) AFI, ASC, BFCA
Major Threats
Bridesmaids (Universal, 5/13, R, trailer) AFI, PGA, SAG, WGA, ACE, ADG, HFPA
The Ides of March (Sony, 10/14, R, trailer) PGA, HFPA
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Focus Features, 12/9, R, trailer) ADG, ASC
Drive (FilmDistrict, 9/16, R, trailer) AFI, ADG, BFCA
My Week with Marilyn (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, R, trailer) HFPA, ACE
Possibilities
50/50 (Summit, 9/30, R, trailer) WGA, HFPA
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows -- Part 2 (Warner Bros., 7/15, PG-13, trailer) ADG
J. Edgar (Warner Bros., 11/11, R, trailer) AFI
Margin Call (Roadside Attractions, 10/21, R, trailer)
Beginners (Focus Features, 6/3, R, trailer)

BEST DIRECTOR
Frontrunners
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) BFCA, NYFCC, DGA, HFPA
Martin Scorsese (Hugo) HFPA, NBR, DGA, BFCA
Alexander Payne (The Descendants) DGA, BFCA, HFPA
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris) DGA, HFPA
Tate Taylor (The Help)
Major Threats
Steven Spielberg (War Horse) BFCA
David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) DGA
Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) BFCA
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life) LAFCA, NSFC
Possibilities
Nicolas Winding Refn (Drive) BFCA
Bennett Miller (Moneyball)
George Clooney (The Ides of March) HFPA
Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar)

BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
George Clooney (The Descendants) BFCA, HFPA, NBR, SAG
Jean Dujardin (The Artist) HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Brad Pitt (Moneyball) NSFC, NYFCC, SAG, BFCA, HFPA
Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar) SAG, BFCA, HFPA
Michael Fassbender (Shame) LAFCA, BFCA, HFPA
Major Threats
Demian Bichir (A Better Life) SAG
Michael Shannon (Take Shelter)
Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Ryan Gosling (Drive) BFCA
Possibilities
Thomas Horn (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Ryan Gosling (The Ides of March) HFPA
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (50/50) HFPA
Woody Harrelson (Rampart)

BEST ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Viola Davis (The Help) BFCA, SAG, HFPA
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) HFPA, NYFCC, SAG, BFCA
Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn) HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin) NBR, SAG, BFCA, HFPA
Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) HFPA
Major Threats
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) SAG, HFPA
Charlize Theron (Young Adult) BFCA, HFPA
Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene) BFCA
Possibilities
Kristen Wiig (Bridesmaids) HFPA
Felicity Jones (Like Crazy)
Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia) NSFC

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Frontrunners
Christopher Plummer (Beginners) , BFCA, HFPA, NBR, LAFCA, SAG
Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn) SAG, BFCA, HFPA
Albert Brooks (Drive) NSFC, NYFCC, BFCA, HFPA
Jonah Hill (Moneyball) SAG, HFPA
Ben Kingsley (Hugo)
Major Threats
Nick Nolte (Warrior) SAG, BFCA
Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Armie Hammer (J. Edgar) SAG
Possibilities
Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method) HFPA
Patton Oswalt (Young Adult) BFCA
Andy Serkis (Rise of the Planet of the Apes) BFCA

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Octavia Spencer (The Help) BFCA, HFPA, SAG
Berenice Bejo (The Artist) SAG, BFCA, HFPA
Jessica Chastain (The Help) NSFC, NYFCC, LAFCA, SAG, BFCA, HFPA
Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs) SAG, HFPA
Shailene Woodley (The Descendants) NBR, BFCA, HFPA
Major Threats
Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) SAG, BFCA
Carey Mulligan (Shame) BFCA
Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Possibilities
Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)
Evan Rachel Wood (The Ides of March)
Judi Dench (J. Edgar)