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JAN
16
2 YEARS

FEINBERG FORECAST: Flurry of Nominations and Awards Leave an Altered Oscar Landscape

What follows is my latest assessment of all of the high-profile Oscar categories, along with a list of the major precursor awards it has won (in orange) and/or for which it has been nominated (in purple) -- some nominations, of course, are still pending. I welcome your thoughts in the comments section at the bottom of the post.

BEST PICTURE
Frontrunners
The Artist (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, PG-13, trailer) BFCA, HFPA, NYFCC, PGA, SAG, ACE, ADG, ASC
The Help (Disney, 8/12, PG-13, trailer) NBR, AFI, PGA, SAG, WGA, ADG, BFCA, HFPA
The Descendants (Fox Searchlight, 11/23, R, trailer) HFPA, AFI, LAFCA, PGA, SAG, WGA, ACE, ADG, BFCA
Hugo (Paramount, 11/23, PG, trailer) NBR, AFI, PGA, WGA, ACE, ADG, ASC, BFCA, HFPA
Midnight in Paris (Sony Pictures Classics, 5/20, PG-13, trailer) AFI, PGA, SAG, WGA, BFCA, HFPA, ACE
War Horse (Disney, 12/25, PG-13, trailer) PGA, BFCA, HFPA, ACE
Moneyball (Columbia, 9/23, PG-13, trailer) AFI, PGA, WGA, BFCA, HFPA, ACE
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Warner Bros., 12/25, PG-13, trailer) ADG, BFCA
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Sony, 12/21, R, trailer) AFI, PGA, WGA, ACE, ADG, ASC
The Tree of Life (Fox Searchlight, 5/27, PG-13, trailer) AFI, ASC, BFCA
Major Threats
Bridesmaids (Universal, 5/13, R, trailer) AFI, PGA, SAG, WGA, ACE, ADG, HFPA
The Ides of March (Sony, 10/14, R, trailer) PGA, HFPA
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Focus Features, 12/9, R, trailer) ADG, ASC
Drive (FilmDistrict, 9/16, R, trailer) AFI, ADG, BFCA
My Week with Marilyn (The Weinstein Company, 11/23, R, trailer) HFPA, ACE
Possibilities
50/50 (Summit, 9/30, R, trailer) WGA, HFPA
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows -- Part 2 (Warner Bros., 7/15, PG-13, trailer) ADG
J. Edgar (Warner Bros., 11/11, R, trailer) AFI
Margin Call (Roadside Attractions, 10/21, R, trailer)
Beginners (Focus Features, 6/3, R, trailer)

BEST DIRECTOR
Frontrunners
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) BFCA, NYFCC, DGA, HFPA
Martin Scorsese (Hugo) HFPA, NBR, DGA, BFCA
Alexander Payne (The Descendants) DGA, BFCA, HFPA
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris) DGA, HFPA
Tate Taylor (The Help)
Major Threats
Steven Spielberg (War Horse) BFCA
David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) DGA
Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) BFCA
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life) LAFCA, NSFC
Possibilities
Nicolas Winding Refn (Drive) BFCA
Bennett Miller (Moneyball)
George Clooney (The Ides of March) HFPA
Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar)

BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
George Clooney (The Descendants) BFCA, HFPA, NBR, SAG
Jean Dujardin (The Artist) HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Brad Pitt (Moneyball) NSFC, NYFCC, SAG, BFCA, HFPA
Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar) SAG, BFCA, HFPA
Michael Fassbender (Shame) LAFCA, BFCA, HFPA
Major Threats
Demian Bichir (A Better Life) SAG
Michael Shannon (Take Shelter)
Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Ryan Gosling (Drive) BFCA
Possibilities
Thomas Horn (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Ryan Gosling (The Ides of March) HFPA
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (50/50) HFPA
Woody Harrelson (Rampart)

BEST ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Viola Davis (The Help) BFCA, SAG, HFPA
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) HFPA, NYFCC, SAG, BFCA
Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn) HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin) NBR, SAG, BFCA, HFPA
Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) HFPA
Major Threats
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) SAG, HFPA
Charlize Theron (Young Adult) BFCA, HFPA
Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene) BFCA
Possibilities
Kristen Wiig (Bridesmaids) HFPA
Felicity Jones (Like Crazy)
Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia) NSFC

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Frontrunners
Christopher Plummer (Beginners) , BFCA, HFPA, NBR, LAFCA, SAG
Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn) SAG, BFCA, HFPA
Albert Brooks (Drive) NSFC, NYFCC, BFCA, HFPA
Jonah Hill (Moneyball) SAG, HFPA
Ben Kingsley (Hugo)
Major Threats
Nick Nolte (Warrior) SAG, BFCA
Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Armie Hammer (J. Edgar) SAG
Possibilities
Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method) HFPA
Patton Oswalt (Young Adult) BFCA
Andy Serkis (Rise of the Planet of the Apes) BFCA

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Frontrunners
Octavia Spencer (The Help) BFCA, HFPA, SAG
Berenice Bejo (The Artist) SAG, BFCA, HFPA
Jessica Chastain (The Help) NSFC, NYFCC, LAFCA, SAG, BFCA, HFPA
Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs) SAG, HFPA
Shailene Woodley (The Descendants) NBR, BFCA, HFPA
Major Threats
Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) SAG, BFCA
Carey Mulligan (Shame) BFCA
Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Possibilities
Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)
Evan Rachel Wood (The Ides of March)
Judi Dench (J. Edgar)

[pagebreak]

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash (The Descendants) NBR, NYFCC, WGA, BFCA, HFPA
Stan Chervin, Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian (Moneyball) BFCA, WGA, HFPA
Tate Taylor (The Help) WGA, BFCA
John Logan (Hugo) WGA, BFCA
Eric Roth (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) BFCA
Major Threats
Steven Zaillian (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) WGA
Richard Curtis, Lee Hall (War Horse)
George Clooney, Grant Heslov (The Ides of March) HFPA
Possibilities
Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Hossein Amini (Drive)
Pedro Almodovar (The Skin I Live In)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frontrunners
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris) BFCA, HFPA, WGA
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) BFCA, HFPA
Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig (Bridesmaids) WGA
Will Reiser (50/50) NBR, WGA, BFCA
Mike Mills (Beginners)
Major Threats
Tom McCarthy, Joe Tiboni (Win Win) WGA, BFCA
Diablo Cody (Young Adult) WGA, BFCA
Asghar Farhadi (A Separation) LAFCA
J.C. Chandor (Margin Call)
Possibilities
Dustin Lance Black (J. Edgar)
Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life)
James Ward Byrkit, John Logan, Gore Verbinski (Rango)
Sean Durkin (Martha Marcy May Marlene)

BEST ANIMATED FILM (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
Rango (Paramount, 3/4, PG, trailer) NBR, LAFCA, PGA, ACE, VES, BFCA, HFPA
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret Unicorn (Paramount, 12/21, PG, trailer) HFPA, PGA, ACE, VES, BFCA
Puss in Boots (DreamWorks, 11/4, PG, trailer) PGA, ACE, ACE, BFCA, HFPA
Kung Fu Panda 2 (DreamWorks, 5/26, PG, trailer) PGA, VES, BFCA
Cars 2 (Disney, 6/24, G, trailer) PGA, HFPA
Major Threats
Arthur Christmas (Sony, 11/23, PG, trailer) VES, BFCA, HFPA
Happy Feet 2 (Warner Bros., 11/18, PG, trailer)
Possibilities
Rio (20th Century Fox, 4/15, G, trailer)
Winnie the Pooh (Disney, 7/15, G, trailer)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM (FEATURE)
Frontrunners
Project Nim (Roadside Attractions, 7/8, PG-13, trailer) PGA, DGA, BFCA
Bill Cunningham New York (Zeitgeist Films, 3/16, TBA, trailer) PGA, DGA
If a Tree Falls (Oscilloscope, 6/22, TBA, trailer) WGA
Undefeated (The Weinstein Company, 2/10, TBA, TBA) BFCA
Semper Fi: Always Faithful (TBA, TBA, TBA, trailer)

Major Threats
Buck (IFC Films, 6/17, PG, trailer) BFCA
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (HBO Documentary Films, TBA, TBA, trailer) NBR, DGA
Battle for Brooklyn (TBA, 6/17, TBA, trailer)
Pina (Sundance Selects, 12/23, TBA, trailer) WGA
Long Way Home: The Loving Story (TBA, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Possibilities
We Were Here (Red Flag Releasing, 9/?, TBA, trailer)
Hell and Back Again (Docurama Films, 10/5, TBA, trailer)
Sing Your Song (HBO Documentary Films, 9/2, TBA, trailer)
Jane's Journey (First Run Features, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Under Fire: Journalists in Combat (TBA, TBA, TBA, trailer)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Frontrunners
A Separation (Iran) BFCA, HFPA, NBR, NYFCC
Where Do We Go Now? (Lebanon) BFCA
Le Havre (Finland) BFCA
In Darkness (Poland) BFCA
Footnote (Israel)
Major Threats
The Flowers of War (China) HFPA
Declaration of War (France)
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
A Simple Life (Hong Kong)
Pina (Germany)
Happy, Happy (Norway)
Possibilities
Terra Firma (Italy)
Sonny Boy (Netherlands)
Superclasico (Denmark)

Bullhead (Belgium)
Black Bread (Spain)
Postcard (Japan)
Omar Killed Me (Morocco)

BEST ART DIRECTION
Frontrunners
Hugo (Dante Ferretti) BFCA, LAFCA, ADG
The Artist (Laurence Bennett) ADG, BFCA
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Stuart Craig) ADG, BFCA
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Maria Djurkovic) ADG
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (K.K. Barrett) ADG
Major Threats
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Donald Graham Burt) ADG
War Horse (Rick Carter) BFCA
Drive (Beth Mickle) ADG
The Tree of Life (Jack Fisk) BFCA
J. Edgar (James J. Murakami)
Bridesmaids (Jefferson Sage) ADG
Captain America: The First Avenger (Rick Heinrichs) ADG
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (John Myhre) ADG
Anonymous (Sebastian Krawinkel) ADG
Cowboys & Aliens (Scott Chambliss) ADG
Possibilities
The Descendants (Jane Anne Stewart) ADG
The Help (Mark Ricker) ADG
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows (Sarah Greenwood)
My Week with Marilyn (Donal Woods)
Midnight in Paris (Anne Seibel)
A Dangerous Method (James McAteer)
Jane Eyre (Will Hughes-Jones)

Albert Nobbs (Patrizia von Brandenstein)
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret Unicorn (TBD) ADG

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Frontrunners
The Tree of Life (Emmanuel Lubezki) BFCA, NYFCC, LAFCA, ASC
Hugo (Robert Richardson) ASC, BFCA
The Artist (Guillaume Schiffman) ASC, BFCA
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Jeff Cronenweth) ASC
War Horse (Janusz Kaminski) BFCA
Major Threats
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Hoyte Van Hoytema) ASC
Drive (Newton Thomas Sigel) BFCA
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Chris Menges)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Eduardo Serra)
Possibilities
The Descendants (Phedon Papamichael)
Shame (Sean Bobbitt)
J. Edgar (Tom Stern)
A Dangerous Method (Peter Suschitzky)

[pagebreak]

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Frontrunners
The Artist (Mark Bridges) BFCA
Jane Eyre (Michael O'Connor) BFCA
Hugo (Sandy Powell) BFCA
The Help (Sharen Davis) BFCA
W.E (Arianne Phillips)
Major Threats
My Week with Marilyn (Jill Taylor) BFCA
Midnight in Paris (Sonia Grande)
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Jacqueline Durran)
War Horse (Joanna Johnston)
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Trish Summerville)
J. Edgar (Deborah Hopper)
Possibilities
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Jany Temime)
Albert Nobbs (Pierre-Yves Gayraud)
Captain America (Anna B. Sheppard)
Anonymous (Lisy Christl)
A Dangerous Method (Denise Cronenberg)

BEST FILM EDITING
Frontrunners
The Artist (Michel Hazanavicius, Anne-Sophie Bion) ACE, BFCA
Hugo (Thelam Schoonmaker) ACE, BFCA
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall) BFCA, ACE
War Horse (Michael Kahn) ACE, BFCA
Midnight in Paris (Alisa Lepselter) ACE
Major Threats
Moneyball (Christopher Tellefson) ACE
The Descendants (Kevin Tent) ACE
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Claire Simpson)
The Help (Hughes Winborne)
Drive (Matthew Newman) BFCA
Contagion (Stephen Mirrione)
Possibilities
The Ides of March (Stephen Mirrione)
J. Edgar (Joe Cox, Gary Roach)
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Dino Jonsater)
My Week with Marilyn (Adam Recht) ACE
Bridesmaids (William Kerr, Michael L. Sale) ACE
Young Adult (Dana Glauberman) ACE

BEST MAKEUP
Frontrunners
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight) BFCA
The Iron Lady (Marese Langan, Mark Coulier, J. Roy Helland) BFCA
Albert Nobbs (Matthew W. Mungle, Lynn Johnston, Martial Corneville) BFCA
Major Threats
The Artist (Julie Hewitt, Cydney Cornell)
Anonymous (Bjorn Rehbein, Heike Merker)
Possibilities
Hugo (Morag Roth, Jan Archibald, Anni Buchanan)
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life (Gill Robillard)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Frontrunners
The Artist (Ludovic Bource) BFCA, HFPA
Hugo (Howard Shore) BFCA, HFPA
War Horse (John Williams) BFCA, HFPA
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross) BFCA, HFPA
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Alexandre Desplat)
Major Threats
The Adventures of Tintin (John Williams)
Jane Eyre (Dario Marianelli)
The Help (Thomas Newman)
Moneyball (Mychael Danna)
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Alberto Iglesias)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Alexandre Desplat)
Possibilities
W.E (Abel Korzeniowski) HFPA
The Ides of March (Alexandre Desplat)
Hanna (The Chemical Brothers) LAFCA
Super 8 (Michael Giacchino)
The Skin I Live In (Alberto Iglesias)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Frontrunners
Rise of the Planet of the Apes (Justin Cornish, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri, Brooke Lyndon-Stanford, R. Christopher White, Erik Winquist) BFCA, VES
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (Tim Burke, Greg Butler, Dadi Einarsson, Adam Gascoyne, Rudi Holzapfel, Matt Jacobs, Seth Mathiesen, John Moffatt, Clark Parkhurst, Chris Shaw, Ulcun Tan, David Vickery) BFCA, VES
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Gary Brozenich, Tony Clark, Charles Gibson, Ian Hunter, Charlie Iturriaga, Gregory Oehler, Christian Pokorny, David Sanger, Ben Snow, Simon Stanley-Clamp, Greg Strause) VES
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (Brennan Doyle, Scott Farrar, Samir Hoon, Reupal D. Rawal, Scott Squires) VES
Captain America: The First Avenger (Craig Barron, Stephane Ceretti, Vincent Cirelli, Sean Andrew Faden, Florian Gellinger, Jonathan Harb, Richard Higham, Dave Morley, Charlie Noble, Daniel P. Rosen, Kathy Siegel, Stephen Swanson, Christopher Townsend, Edson Williams) VES
Major Threats
Hugo (David Burton, Matthew Gratzner, John Knoll, Robert Legato, Mark Weigert, Edson Williams) BFCA
The Tree of Life (Tom Debenham, Olivier Dumont, Dan Glass, Bryan Hirota, Matt McDonald, Dominic Parker, Daniel P. Rosen, Michael Shand) BFCA
Possibilities
Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol (John Knoll, Dave Morley)
X-Men: First Class (Nicolas Aithadi, Jay Barton, Stephane Ceretti, Vincent Cirelli, Jon Cowley, Laurens Ehrmann, Florian Gellinger, Rob Hodgson, Matt Johnson, Greg Steele, Steven Swanson, Shailendra Swarnkar, Guy Williams, Anton Yri)